Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Only Real Estel]

OPB SpM:

And, with the exception of The Only Real Estel, I have not seen anyone who was initially in favor of the "Seer plan" come out against it, despite the convincing arguments against it. Actually, I suppose Holbytlass changed her mind over it. But perhaps we should be more suspicious of those who have changed their mind as they have been able to see which way opinion was going ...

It did occur to me that it would probably seem suspicious for me to 'change' my opinion on the seer matter only after SpM implicated me as somewhat suspicious to him. Unfortunately, it couldn't be helped. After initial down-time in which I had the chance to voice my views several times, the day got busy fast--and I had no time to really dedicate myself to picking apart Fordim's proposed plan. It was only after some thinking in the quite confines of my bed that I realized how blatantly absurd my reasoning for the seer idea working was, and how easily the wolves could get past it. That left me with no reason to stick by the plan, other than other villagers seeing it as fickle, and that wasn't enough of a reason for me. The fact that SpM posted his suspicions of me inbetween posting times for me cannot be helped.

So far the voting has been sporadic, as expected. Fordim seems a logical choice, but if he would turn out to be innocent I would hate to have hung him because he tried to help us (since that's what it would boil down to). If I was convinced of Fordy's plan I should be suspicious of Saucey, TGWBS, and the phantom. Unfortunately, I am not sure of his plan, so I'm not sure whether to be suspicious of any of them. And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day. I'm not vouching for him (as I have repeated several times during this DAY about different characters), but I am putting something out there that I have been thinking on for quite awhile. As to SoN's vote of me, I can't speak to that because he gave no reasons besides his gut feelings (pretty much), and I'm not going to try to argue anyone out of their gut feeling.

As far as votes go I will say that I am leaning toward's Saucepan's theory.