Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[the phantom]

Okay, okay! Stop! I've had quite enough of people saying stuff like "phantom's not being himself" and "phantom is acting different".

Of course I am!

I know I'm not supposed to mention the other games, but considering that my current behavior is being compared to my past behavior I feel the need to mention the other games.

Game 1: I voted correctly on day one and we got a wolf. On day two the seer identified a wolf. On day three I had three main suspects and three days in which to lynch them. I never felt out of control while I was alive in that game.

Game 2: I was a wolf, so I knew exactly what was going on, and I had a plan for absolutely everything that could possibly happen. I was confident- not scared of losing in the least.

This game: We lost our SEER the very first day! No one looks particularly more suspicious than anyone else, therefore I have no certainty whatsoever! There are many people that I could work up a theory for (to accuse them), however, I have little confidence in any theory. I know absolutely nothing, and I know that all the other villagers are in a similar predicament.

Is it any wonder that I'm not acting like I was the last two games??

Everyone understand?

So that puts Kuru, Shelob and Holbytlass on top of my suspect list. Along with SoN, for reasons that I have already stated.

I agree with that.

Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy.

I agree with that.

The other two are still with us and are acting mighty suspicious to my mind. Notice in particular how Firefoot seems to be echoing things the Saucepan Man says first and how she defends him now. Notice also how on the first DAY Saucepan Man supported mormegil by suspecting the phantom (post 78). However, mormegil is now following the party line by suspecting me.

I agree with that.

How they voted: SoN tried to shift our glance from SpM, admitting that he might be guilty (distancing himself from him for later purposes?), but asserting that he was too valuable to off now (&, coincidently, it would ruin their secret plan). SoN then cast a random vote, perhaps so that the wolves wouldn't be tied together by their votes?

I agree with that.

A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game.

I agree with that, too!

I agree with everyone!

Do you see my dilemma? Do you see why I am perhaps grasping at straws? Because every single theory offered seems workable, and I have no way of knowing which one (if any) is correct.

The only thing I know is that I'm an innocent villager. That's not much to work with.

We have nothing concrete to go on. You might say "votes", but if we are using votes as our primary evidence, then I should be the last person you lynch today.

Why? Because, my vote is the least meaningful. Yesterday, it was obviously kill Evisse or kill myself. I had zero choice in the matter. We were tied at three a piece, and with the deadline only 20 minutes away it was possible that my vote would be the final vote, so of course I voted for Evisse. It was a no-brainer. It was beyond obvious. My vote for Evisse tells you nothing.

Lynching me today would kill yet another innocent. Pick someone else instead. Yes, it's quite likely that your choice will be wrong, but you definitely have a better shot at catching a wolf voting for someone else considering that I am most certainly not a wolf.

If you keep me around long enough, I may actually be able to form some solid theories to help you out.

Now, I'm going to go to bed for six hours and when I wake up I will read what is going on and cast my vote.

I sincerely hope that I do not awake to find my vote forced towards someone in order to preserve my own skin (like yesterday).

That means no more voting for me! Understood?