Werewolf VI (the saga continues in a rather continuous way)

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

False. Theoretically, if we picked somebody at random, we would have a 25% chance of killing a wolf. With lycanthropic influence factored in, the chance is realistically much lower. In any case, we have a Seer, a Ranger, a Hunter and two Shirriffs, all of whom are important to the village. That gives us a (theoretical, if done at random) 42% chance of killing a Gifted villager. With wolvish influence factored in, this is again higher.

On the other hand, we cannot gauge reaction and votes. I shall have to think about the plan.

That's why I say do a completely random approach. While I consider the hunter and shirriffs to be important they are not nearly as important as the ranger who also is not as important as the seer. So I'm not for loosing any of them (any innocents for that matter) but it's not the end of the world.

Let's just think carefully:

We have:

12 villagers
3 wolves
1 seer
1 ranger
1 hunter
2 shirriffs
1 mythomaniac

That's 9 of 12 that can't step forward and die. One innocent is killed the first day we only have 2 left. Best case for the village during the night would be that they kill one of the other two. Next day the last remaining villager steps forward to be lyched we have nobody left except gifted villagers or wolves (assuming that the mytho becomes gifted) Now the wolves can one by one pick off the gifted. And what have we accomplished? Well hoping that the seer dreams correctly we can find a wolf or two by their dreams but chances are they won't dream of a wolf. Two days have been wasted that otherwise could have been used to analyze wolf behavior by having innocents step forward to be sacrificed.