Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXV: All Star Crossed With Nowhere to Go - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Fintaeph · 10-29-2006, 01:55 PM

Some things I'm thinking about while considering what to do about this tragedy:
1) there are 10 of us and 8 of them; therefore a random guess has a better chance of killing a friend than an enemy;
2) each pair has a 6 in 16 (37.5%) chance of killing another pair tonight; therefore, by tomorrow morning, assuming one of the pairs isn't lynched today, and they randomly pick their victims, 1 or even 2 pairs of the pairs should be dead by their own fangs;
3) with numbers this small, reality won't follow probabilities very closely.

Given all of this, I don't know what to do but bar myself in my barn with my sheep and hope to find my courage and a large weapon by tonight.

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"Hey! This mutton jerky is awesome!" -- Naria, overheard talking to a friend
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Missing a limb? Call 1-800-UNDEAD-ARM and get it replaced!

10-29-2006, 01:55 PM	#11
Fintaeph Pile O'Bones Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 11	Some things I'm thinking about while considering what to do about this tragedy: 1) there are 10 of us and 8 of them; therefore a random guess has a better chance of killing a friend than an enemy; 2) each pair has a 6 in 16 (37.5%) chance of killing another pair tonight; therefore, by tomorrow morning, assuming one of the pairs isn't lynched today, and they randomly pick their victims, 1 or even 2 pairs of the pairs should be dead by their own fangs; 3) with numbers this small, reality won't follow probabilities very closely. Given all of this, I don't know what to do but bar myself in my barn with my sheep and hope to find my courage and a large weapon by tonight. ------------------------------------------------------------------ "Hey! This mutton jerky is awesome!" -- Naria, overheard talking to a friend ------------------------------------------------------------------ Missing a limb? Call 1-800-UNDEAD-ARM and get it replaced!