The Wayward Moon of SR 1341

In TH, A fat crescent moon over Elrond's house (on 1 Lithe, Midsummer's Eve) allowed Thorin & Co to read the moon letters on the map of Erebor.
This is consistent with the late-rising bright moon that gave enough light for Bard to end Smaug's career...only two nights AFTER the new moon of Durin's Day (Saturday, November 6, 1341 by my calculation).

Now, THAT new moon is quite consistent with the lunar phases documented for SR 1419 (in LOTR and especially FOTR and ROTK).

Sil mentions that the driver of the moon did not always hold a steady course.

I agree.

(Gandalf may also have made a mistake in translation during the Unexpected Party, when he mentioned that Thorin's father: "went away on the twenty-first of April, a hundred years ago last Thursday." In the Shire, April 21 would always be a Friday!)