Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Gwathagor · 06-06-2008, 11:33 PM

This may or may not be helpful to anyone else besides myself. That's OK.

CAILIN
Post #51
Recommends we try to catch both WWs and EW. Suggests that the EW will try to scry those who the GW would not and those who are less “illustrious”, but then disregards this and all such theories as useless speculation. I believe her position on speculation does an about-face later on.

Post #58
States again that she imagines the EW would select wolves from those the GW would be unlikely to scry. Posts list of Likely Wolves. This is composed of Lalaith, Izzy, Aganzir (good call), Herself, Kitanna, Kath, Legate, Eonwe, Volo, Mormegil, and Lhuna. Her list of Likely Innocents: Lommy, TP, Diamond18, Macalaure, Rikae, Roa, Nilp, Brinn, Durelin.

Post #63
Says that Volo’s “we wolves” was probably a mistake and not a wolf slip. Fair enough.

Post #78
Now says it’s worthwhile to speculate regarding who would apply for Wizard positions, and who would be chosen as a wolf. Is this not a contradiction of what she said earlier in #51?

Post #96
Responds to Aganzir’s suspicion. Defends speculation again.

Post #101
THE Ka is at the top of Cailin’s suspect list, based on an unfortunate misquoting by Roa which Ka perpetuated. Cailin’s suspicion is understandable at this point, I suppose, as there is little else to go on in Day 1.

Post #105
This is the first post where anyone really goes after Nerwen. Cailin takes on Nerwen’s first post: “This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.” It seems a stretch to get all this out of Nerwen’s post.

Nerwen’s criticisms regarding methods of finding an EW or WW seemed legitimate to me, and not particularly long. Also, it seems like a gross misrepresentation on Cailin’s part to say that Nerwen’s guide to the behavior of werewolves is more helpful to the wolves than it is to the innocents.

Post #108
In response to Nerwen, states again that it’s unnecessary to state common wolf tactics, because we know them already.

Post #123
Dislikes Nerwen even more for voting her following their disagreement, but say that she’s still thinking about voting Ka for “carelessly copying Roa’s misquote” about her (Cailin). It seems to me that she’s fishing for a bandwagon, either Nerwen or Ka, but could care less which one goes down.

Post #127
Points out that TP seems to be playing the role of villager as a neutral one. Also suggests that TP might be a bluffing wizard, but doubts he is a wolf.

Post #165
Votes Nerwen here (beginning of Nerwen bandwagon), because she doesn’t have any other substantial suspicions. Restates her accusations from #105: Nerwen merely spends a long time criticizing others in order to gain a position on “the pedestal of sense.” THE Ka seems to have disappeared inexplicably from the suspicion-radar by this point…

Post #315
Analyzes Volo. No, that’s inaccurate. Really, she just sums up all his posts without actually interpreting them. A lot of work, but not much help. Trying to achieve a spot on the good old pedestal of sense? Also sums up Kitanna’s posts.

Apologizes to Nerwen, because she didn’t think everyone would follow her vote the way they did. She was flabbergasted, in fact. Oops.

Claims to have a “crackpot theory” regarding someone else who looks “mighty suspicious”, but won’t reveal it yet. Let’s see if she does!

Post #337
Acknowledges that there’s not much to gain from looking at Volo and Kitanna. Recommends that we ignore the Roa/TP fight, as they’re likely “two proud ordos going at it.”

Post #359
Suggests that sally is way to appease and make friends. Finds her suspicious for this, and, I think, legitimately points out that sally voted for TP the Day before, but is now joking about with him, which seems a curious switching of attitudes.

Post #371
Jumps on my statement that I think either Roa or TP is bad, and finds my reasoning odd. I didn’t actually give any reasoning, but she suggests possible reasons I might have, and which she finds unpersuasive. She makes me sound pretty bad, though. Maybe she really doesn’t want us inspecting Roa vs. TP. If the case, I doubt her motivation is good.

Post #412
Announces that Diamond seems less than innocent, and runs off to take a closer look.

Post #416
Can’t find a single interesting point that Diamond has made. I agree, actually. By this point, Diamond has been entertaining (keep it up!), but not especially helpful. Cailin thinks Diamond may be a baddie hiding in the open. I think this is legitimate.

Post #434
Not sure who to vote for, but is suspicious of Sally, Brinniel, Diamond, and me.

Post #466
Concedes that Ka’s accidental misquote may have been an honest mistake, but maintains that it’s not a bad cause for suspicion. I think she’s wrong about this; an accidental copying of a misquote is an awfully flimsy basis for a vote. Denies jumping on Nerwen, but I really don’t think you can describe the situation any other way. They definitely jumped on each other, though Nerwen’s post addressed multiple people, and only mentioned Cailin briefly.

Post #480
In response to Brinniel: says it would be as correct to say that she jumped on Nerwen as to say that Nerwen jumped on her. She’s right about this. Also, Cailin doesn’t like what she calls Brinniel’s single-mindedness regarding the who-jumped-on-whom issue.

Post #498
Creeped out by McCaber. Wants to keep Lalaith alive. Uneasy about TP. Curious about but hesitant to vote for Brinniel. Asks if anyone wants to vote for sally or me. Looks to me like she’s fishing for a bandwagon again. TP offers to take her up on the offer and vote for me (in post #504), but seems to think it’s not logistically feasible. McCaber suggests that it could be done.

Post #514
Wants to vote for me, because I’m creepier than the other candidates. I thought McCaber was the creepy one. Not anymore, I suppose, since he’s willing to support her anti-Gwath campaign.

Post #526
Cailin says: “Nay, I know people are watching. I'm testing to see if there is support. I don't want to throw away my vote.” I’m not sure who she means this is reference to.

Post #532
Disappointed that no one (i.e. not enough people to get one of us killed) wanted to vote against sally or gwath.

Post #537
Votes Aganzir. This is the final and deciding vote for Aganzir. If Cailin is a wolf, then she's likely voting off the Safe Votes For Wolves list (if it exists).

So, Cailin does some really bad stuff. She start the Nerwen bandwagon, bases her suspicion of Ka on a copying of an accidental misquote, makes weird apparent contradictions, seems to fish around for public support before voting, misrepresents aspects of Nerwen's posts, and vehemently wants us to not inspect the Roa/TP debate.

But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death.

I have to say that based on the frequently weak, exaggerated, or non-existent reasoning of her posts, coupled with her tendency to drop suspects once it's clear they won't be lynched, I really don't like the way Cailin looks right now. However, whether I vote her or not will depend largely on what happens toDay. I mean to take closer looks at legate and tp as well.

EDIT: Crossed with just about everyone. This beast of a post took me several hours, and I feel rather bad putting you all through it.

06-06-2008, 11:33 PM	#11
Gwathagor Shade with a Blade Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: A Rainy Night In Soho Posts: 2,512	This may or may not be helpful to anyone else besides myself. That's OK. CAILIN Post #51 Recommends we try to catch both WWs and EW. Suggests that the EW will try to scry those who the GW would not and those who are less “illustrious”, but then disregards this and all such theories as useless speculation. I believe her position on speculation does an about-face later on. Post #58 States again that she imagines the EW would select wolves from those the GW would be unlikely to scry. Posts list of Likely Wolves. This is composed of Lalaith, Izzy, Aganzir (good call), Herself, Kitanna, Kath, Legate, Eonwe, Volo, Mormegil, and Lhuna. Her list of Likely Innocents: Lommy, TP, Diamond18, Macalaure, Rikae, Roa, Nilp, Brinn, Durelin. Post #63 Says that Volo’s “we wolves” was probably a mistake and not a wolf slip. Fair enough. Post #78 Now says it’s worthwhile to speculate regarding who would apply for Wizard positions, and who would be chosen as a wolf. Is this not a contradiction of what she said earlier in #51? Post #96 Responds to Aganzir’s suspicion. Defends speculation again. Post #101 THE Ka is at the top of Cailin’s suspect list, based on an unfortunate misquoting by Roa which Ka perpetuated. Cailin’s suspicion is understandable at this point, I suppose, as there is little else to go on in Day 1. Post #105 This is the first post where anyone really goes after Nerwen. Cailin takes on Nerwen’s first post: “This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.” It seems a stretch to get all this out of Nerwen’s post. Nerwen’s criticisms regarding methods of finding an EW or WW seemed legitimate to me, and not particularly long. Also, it seems like a gross misrepresentation on Cailin’s part to say that Nerwen’s guide to the behavior of werewolves is more helpful to the wolves than it is to the innocents. Post #108 In response to Nerwen, states again that it’s unnecessary to state common wolf tactics, because we know them already. Post #123 Dislikes Nerwen even more for voting her following their disagreement, but say that she’s still thinking about voting Ka for “carelessly copying Roa’s misquote” about her (Cailin). It seems to me that she’s fishing for a bandwagon, either Nerwen or Ka, but could care less which one goes down. Post #127 Points out that TP seems to be playing the role of villager as a neutral one. Also suggests that TP might be a bluffing wizard, but doubts he is a wolf. Post #165 Votes Nerwen here (beginning of Nerwen bandwagon), because she doesn’t have any other substantial suspicions. Restates her accusations from #105: Nerwen merely spends a long time criticizing others in order to gain a position on “the pedestal of sense.” THE Ka seems to have disappeared inexplicably from the suspicion-radar by this point… Post #315 Analyzes Volo. No, that’s inaccurate. Really, she just sums up all his posts without actually interpreting them. A lot of work, but not much help. Trying to achieve a spot on the good old pedestal of sense? Also sums up Kitanna’s posts. Apologizes to Nerwen, because she didn’t think everyone would follow her vote the way they did. She was flabbergasted, in fact. Oops. Claims to have a “crackpot theory” regarding someone else who looks “mighty suspicious”, but won’t reveal it yet. Let’s see if she does! Post #337 Acknowledges that there’s not much to gain from looking at Volo and Kitanna. Recommends that we ignore the Roa/TP fight, as they’re likely “two proud ordos going at it.” Post #359 Suggests that sally is way to appease and make friends. Finds her suspicious for this, and, I think, legitimately points out that sally voted for TP the Day before, but is now joking about with him, which seems a curious switching of attitudes. Post #371 Jumps on my statement that I think either Roa or TP is bad, and finds my reasoning odd. I didn’t actually give any reasoning, but she suggests possible reasons I might have, and which she finds unpersuasive. She makes me sound pretty bad, though. Maybe she really doesn’t want us inspecting Roa vs. TP. If the case, I doubt her motivation is good. Post #412 Announces that Diamond seems less than innocent, and runs off to take a closer look. Post #416 Can’t find a single interesting point that Diamond has made. I agree, actually. By this point, Diamond has been entertaining (keep it up!), but not especially helpful. Cailin thinks Diamond may be a baddie hiding in the open. I think this is legitimate. Post #434 Not sure who to vote for, but is suspicious of Sally, Brinniel, Diamond, and me. Post #466 Concedes that Ka’s accidental misquote may have been an honest mistake, but maintains that it’s not a bad cause for suspicion. I think she’s wrong about this; an accidental copying of a misquote is an awfully flimsy basis for a vote. Denies jumping on Nerwen, but I really don’t think you can describe the situation any other way. They definitely jumped on each other, though Nerwen’s post addressed multiple people, and only mentioned Cailin briefly. Post #480 In response to Brinniel: says it would be as correct to say that she jumped on Nerwen as to say that Nerwen jumped on her. She’s right about this. Also, Cailin doesn’t like what she calls Brinniel’s single-mindedness regarding the who-jumped-on-whom issue. Post #498 Creeped out by McCaber. Wants to keep Lalaith alive. Uneasy about TP. Curious about but hesitant to vote for Brinniel. Asks if anyone wants to vote for sally or me. Looks to me like she’s fishing for a bandwagon again. TP offers to take her up on the offer and vote for me (in post #504), but seems to think it’s not logistically feasible. McCaber suggests that it could be done. Post #514 Wants to vote for me, because I’m creepier than the other candidates. I thought McCaber was the creepy one. Not anymore, I suppose, since he’s willing to support her anti-Gwath campaign. Post #526 Cailin says: “Nay, I know people are watching. I'm testing to see if there is support. I don't want to throw away my vote.” I’m not sure who she means this is reference to. Post #532 Disappointed that no one (i.e. not enough people to get one of us killed) wanted to vote against sally or gwath. Post #537 Votes Aganzir. This is the final and deciding vote for Aganzir. If Cailin is a wolf, then she's likely voting off the Safe Votes For Wolves list (if it exists). So, Cailin does some really bad stuff. She start the Nerwen bandwagon, bases her suspicion of Ka on a copying of an accidental misquote, makes weird apparent contradictions, seems to fish around for public support before voting, misrepresents aspects of Nerwen's posts, and vehemently wants us to not inspect the Roa/TP debate. But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death. I have to say that based on the frequently weak, exaggerated, or non-existent reasoning of her posts, coupled with her tendency to drop suspects once it's clear they won't be lynched, I really don't like the way Cailin looks right now. However, whether I vote her or not will depend largely on what happens toDay. I mean to take closer looks at legate and tp as well. EDIT: Crossed with just about everyone. This beast of a post took me several hours, and I feel rather bad putting you all through it. __________________ Stories and songs. Last edited by Gwathagor; 06-06-2008 at 11:41 PM.