Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, once again some brief responses and then let's see what else comes, if anything. Btw once again the discussion has shifted to rather one-sided "lynch Legate or not", which is of course understandable, but also it serves very nice to the Wolves, as nothing else gets done at all.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Just a quick comment right now - I can't see what the wolves would have gained by intentionally leaving out the kill and framing Legate. Made sure an innocent is lynched on Day2, sure, but why not kill an innocent during the Night and try to get another innocent lynched the next Day? Why would they not maximise the destruction?

Originally Posted by Brinniel

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

(And similarly many others.)

Well, why is it so unimaginable? Let's just see - the Wolves got a Seer, and they have TWO KILLS, more than they have in a normal game, which is BONUS for them now. Unbalance for their side is 2:1, and we have no Seer after yesterDay! And the yesterNight for them must be something like Day 1 for the innocents when it comes to losses - i.e. it's still early in the game, and I think for the Wolves missing one kill out of two could be compared to how do innocents feel towards lynching a fellow innocent on Day 1 (of course, if he's not a Seer). That is, okay, it's bad of course, but it's not that much of a pain in the end. And maybe it also saves them trouble for thinking of two kills, thus giving more grounds for suspicion, perhaps. (Though that's really just a minor thing that just comes on my mind, not a real reason.) And like pointed out above, it actually - at least NOW and TODAY in this case, from the looks of it, lets them make the innocents WASTE ONE DAY on debating about a false suspect.
Anyway, framing an innocent also means that they don't need to worry that one of them will be lynched toDay. Lynching is what would kill one of them, thus deprave them of their double-kills, and so actually (and maybe if one of them was under high suspicion and was likely to be lynched toDay?) it is even better for them to miss one kill on first Night to still ensure that they have two kills on next Night AND also a dead Innocent by Day 2, lynched, AND that also means that toDay they don't need to worry that much about voting, as many people will join the bandwagon anyway.
And also, as last possible reason, they could as well just do it to make fun of the village. If nothing else, if you lynch me, this will be what will be memorable for them on this game, whether they win or lose. I can for example imagine the likes of Nogrod enjoying stuff like that, for mere "sport".

So by the way, by the paraghraph above my last one I disprove of this conclusion by Wilwa:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now, let's say I'm totally wrong and Legate is innocent. We'll still be further ahead. If they had done their 2 kills last Night and we instead lynched someone else toDay (who could have aswell been innocent), then we would have been down 3 innocents. But this way, we'll only be down 2. Or, he'll be a wolf, which is my guess. Really we are either gaining, or losing only a bit less then we could have lost if there had been a second night kill. Not really a win-win situtation, but it's definitely not a lose-lose.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Just saw this. Thought I'd put it out there. It sounds funny to me.

And speaking of her, not sure what's "funny" about that, more like, it makes it sound MORE unlikely that I'd be a Wolf, does it?

Anyway, I like wilwa less and less, given her "la-di-da" way of posting about me, trying to sound sometimes as if she's genuinely wondering whether I am really a Wolf, as if thinking really hard and trying to be just, but that just sounds too false.

And now this:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Exactly. So, I'm pretty sure Legate's gonna be our first wolf. Which will be lovely because we won't have had to ever experience the double Night kill.

As if closing it up. Wonderful. Even if I am dead, then I would certainly hope then that you are going to be the first.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

One sane point among all the people is this, the first sentence, and also the continued unfolded thought after that. It comes from the village fool - what does it say, Tolkien's point about those who seem to be the fools being sometimes the ones who are actually wiser?