Arda Cup Football 2010

[Nogrod]

Group D

Whatever the motivation of any team in the friendlies, Eithel Sirion has been an impressive team. Maglor’s saving percent of 81% is first class and their scoring percentage of 20,8% is simply the best there is thus far. Every team in this tournament shoud be afraid of the quintet: Maedhros, Fingon, Hador, Gwindor and Nienor. They really know how to put the ball in the back of the net.

In the same vein we have no faith in the Dale team to make it through the group play. MESPN entertained the idea how to take advantage of Roac’s and Carc’s aerial abilities. Well we can answer that: by making them attacking midfielders or forwards. But that clearly is too late a call. Smaug has an astonishing finishing precentage in the attack but he can’t outscore the opponents alone.

Dale’s probem isn’t diminished by the fact that Gelion has been quite effective in the defence – at least compared to them. But Gelion hasn’t celebrated with goals in turn.

So maybe it will be Rohan to qualify in front of the two? Their defences do not look that solid even with the horses there, but then again statwise a lot of it is due to their terrible performance against Dol Guldur – and they wil not meet another team of that caliber in this group (Eithel Sirion excepted).

Group E

It is hard to say which of these teams would earn to go through. In most other groups both Misty Mountains and Rivendell would have their chances – and they do it even in this group. But the chances aren’t that great in the end.

We can see Utumno checking their game in the first two matches and then putting on a sordino – their draw with Thangorodrim raises eyebrows especially. And what MESPN said: it looks believable they were not willing to show all their tricks in a friendly match against their real enemies. So a clear qualifier.

It will be hard to bring down the team of Numenor. Yes there’s not the flair of last year with all the mighty forwards gone, the defence doesn’t seem to have the magic they had last year and Tar Atanamir’s saving percentage is almost 10 points lower it was last year etc. but they’ve been consistent and easy and the bad numbers are mainly due to their last game against the Barrow-Downs. Take that game out and you have a strong candidate for the quarterfinals.

Misty Mountains has taken 20 yellow cards in four matches which makes five cards per game on average. Thus far Tom, Bert, William and the Great Goblin have all picked up three cards each. If that is the way they play “friendly” games, how will they play when they fight for the win for real! Intimidating the adversary to force them to do mistakes is one thing, taking foolish cards and thus free-kicks, penalties or a disadvantage in numbers is another thing. It seems they haven’t quite got that.

Elrond has been thus far the best goalie in the friendlies (after Hama of Wold who we don’t count). The problem for rivendell though is that their adversaries have been more or less easier teams and their attack has been quite pathetic. Even if Numenor has played a bit under the expectations, they still outscore Rivendell easily.

Group F

On the first glance it looks pretty simple with this group: Thangorodrim and Valimar will qualify and Lorien and Bywater will fall behind. And even if we might end up with that prediction we’d warn peole not to take that for granted.

Now Valimar has been annoyingly effective winning all their matches with one goal – like they were polite enough not to win the games with a larger margin. But actually, Utumno being left aside, they have not faced any really strong ME opponents. The AKM has always been against the West meddling with the affairs of the ME and so the readers might interpret our sentiments in accordance to that.

Thangorodrim has been steadfast and effective. It’s very hard to see them not qualifying from this group. With Durin’s Bane, Scatha and Ancalagon in the lead it’s hard to see how the opponents could deal with them. Now the draw with Utumno was a questionmark and felt like a premeditated deal but who knows? Anyway if there should be one team we’d predict to go forwards for a bet it would be Thangorodrim: Carcaroth is still a quality keeper and they have a deadly efficient attack.

So the challengers then. As MESPN says, Bywater has been able to outshoot their opponents – except Vinyamar. The hobbits are agile and the two wizards surely create a threat to anyone opposing them. But so far it just doesn’t seem to work. Despite their nice words both Gandalf and Saruman seem like unconnected spots of talent surrounded by hobbits dashing here and there with no clear view of the bigger picture. Shadofax can hold the defences with the Nazgul just as long but Cotton at the goal is no strength for the team – to be polite with it.

Lorien then? Galadriel is as good as anyone thought she would be and thus scoring against them will be hard – but not that hard. Tirion broke their defences once and for all and there is no reason to believe any other team of that quality would not be able to do the same. We don’t want to take sides in the issue of the balance of gender but Celeborn really should have a word with Galadriel. This way they will end up in the group phase.

Group G

If Gondolin is not going to qualify and Doriath is, the head-editor of the AKM will eat his hat. So the name of the game is, which of the two: Gondor or Wold will join Gondolin in the next stage.

Hama has kept the Wold goal unviolated for four matches and that should count for something. Finrod Felagund has tried him, Azog and Gwaihir have tried him, Faramir has tried him, Tuor and Penlod have tried him… to no effect. No one has been able to put the ball behind Hama thus far. So is he the best goalie so far? Well, he will face Fingolfin, Aredhel and Maeglin. Does anyone think he has a chance there? No offence to Finrod (whom the AKM still regards as one of the greatest) but Hama has not been tested yet. He will also face Quickbeam, Treebeard and Grima, he will face Haleth, Haldir and Thingol, and Hyermendacil Eldacar and Mardil, and that’s at least as dangerous as those he has met already. So no chances for Wold to win the group and even their second place is challenged indeed.

The first challenge to Wold comes from Gondor. They are not a team filled with household celebrities as goes to the starting line-up but they have played confidently and every connoisseur knows their merits. Romendacil at the goal could be their Achilles’ heel but then again Wold isn’t the scoring team.

That would give a chance to Doriath, if they had their attack in form – which they haven’t. They have faced good teams to be sure but getting only nine shots on goal in four games is just unforgivable.

Gondolin made two sovereign appearances and then clearly let themselves to take it easier. Now the question is, whether that kind of intentional lowering down the game before the real thing can be harmful or not. That’s a question the sports-psychologists argue over and over. But it’s hard to see Gondolin not qualifying from this group anyway. What comes after that is another issue.

Group H

Once again a group that has a clear favourite and leaves two teams to fight for the second place. It would be a miracle if Tirion would not qualify and there are only those betting against all odds who see Minas Anor to qualify with a glorious sum of money in their greedy but bad-sighted eyes. But the game between Havens and Dol Guldur is wide open for anyone to bet.

Dol Guldur sure has one of the worst defences of the whole tournament: all their defenders ended up with minus phantasy points after the friendlies and Oropher’s saving percentage was the worst of all (53,6%). But one should never underestimate the Witch King or Khamûl. And they have some mighty aids with Radagast, Bolg, Beorn and Grimbeorn. So even if their defences leak big time they are able to score back.

Havens hasn’t been exactly the best defencive team either even if their record is a bit better – but then again their opponents during the friendlies were not that challenging if one compares them to the teams Dol Guldur had to play against. But Haves has a quality forward-team as well. Tar Minastir, Eärendil and Cirdan should be taken seriously by any team opposing them.

As said earlier, Minas Anor has been just invisible. There’s little talent, there’s little flair, there’s little of anything. To their excuse one could say they have faced mighty opposition thus far, but it won’t get any easier with the teams in their group.

Tirion then will march to the next round with relative ease. If what Fëanor said in the MESPN interview is correct, one should bet even more heavily on them. If they really played concentrating on the defence (and one can see that from the shots on target against them) their fans should not be worried. With Miriel, Nerdanel, Finwë and Fëanor himself leading the offence they really should perform some quality scoring – well not just some, a lot of it – when they are unleashed to really attack.