Alternate route

[galadriel'smaiden]

I personally think Gandalf would have gone the Frodo/Sam way, and scince he would have prevented the Boromir incident, dropped off Boromir, and maybe Aragorn and Legolas at Minas Tirith. The story would have been far less interesting...

[Alchisiel]

Could the Fellowship have taken a route around the Ash Mountains or maybe gone by sea through the mouth of the Anduin up the river Poros, climbed the southern portion of Ephel Duath and came to Mount Doom by the south? Is that not possible? If Gandalf and the rest of the Fellowship took the same route as Sam and Frodo did wouldn't they have been easily seen? That's why I always thought that had Gandalf been with them beyond Moria they would have taken a totally different route. Two little hobbits can't be seen as easily as a wizard, elf, dwarf and two men.

[Orcrist]

I always wonder about this too. Many things would have gone differently. Sam and Frodo would not have met up with Gollum. Gollum would not have betrayed them to Shelob. Frodo might have claimed the Ring. (Actually I doubt this because one of the Fellowship would have probably taken it and thrown it in the Fire.) And I agree with you Alchisiel. They probably wuld have been seen. There are many things that would not have happened, had Gandalf not fallen in Moria. Also, this would have made the story less interesting, and it probably would not be as popular and we probably would not be sitting here wasting our time talking about it.

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually I doubt this because one of the Fellowship would have probably taken it and thrown it in the Fire.

JRRT makes it clear in his Letters that no one could willingly have destroyed the Ring. Indeed, any other conclusion makes Frodo look rather a failure, don't you think?

[Orcrist]

I guess you are right Saucepan Man. The only way for the Ring to be destroyed was for someone to do it on accident(Gollum). But... did the Fellowship know that? Because they seemed pretty confident (Gandalf especially) that they would destroy the Ring, if they got to that point.

[The Saucepan Man]

But... did the Fellowship know that? Because they seemed pretty confident (Gandalf especially) that they would destroy the Ring, if they got to that point.

I doubt that Gandalf knew for sure, but he most probably suspected. I think that he realised from the outset that there was little chance of the Quest succeeding, but he trusted in providence.

I am sure that there is a quote to back that up somewhere, but I think that Gandalf's thoughts concerning the Quest of the Ring were similar to those which he expressed in relation to the Quest of Erebor (from Unfinished Tales):

So it was that that the Quest of Erebor set out. I do not suppose that when it started Thorin had any real hope of destroying Smaug. There was no hope. Yet it happened.

Returning to the topic at hand, I am not so sure that the Fellowship would have remained intact for long, even had Gandalf not fallen in Moria. Even with Gandalf present, one of the Fellowship (most likely Boromir) would have succumbed to the Ring sooner or later and made a play for it. Assuming that he survived, Frodo would have realised that he could not stay with them and made off on his own (no doubt with Sam in tow).

I agree, however, that, had the Fellowship remained intact, the consequences would probably have been disastrous. Most, if not all, would have felt duty bound to accompany Frodo to Mordor, leaving other matters unattended to and (as others have said) making the approach to Mordor far more conspicuous.

But perhaps the most significant consequence of Gandalf not falling in Moria would have been that he would not have returned as the White Wizard, quite possibly leaving him unable to accomplish many of the tasks that he later carried out, such as breaking Saruman's power and challenging the Witch King at the Gates of Minas Tirith.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I don't think that Gandalf had really figured it out himself -- he was just heading 'toward Mordor' and trusting to the 'luck' of Frodo and the will/providential plan of Eru. It does say somewhere in the "Council of Elrond" (does it not?) that Aragorn was headed toward Minas Tirith rather than Mordor -- certainly Boromir was headed that way, so the Fellowship would have been sundered at Parth Galen come what may.

But Gandalf's Fall in Moria was more important in that it left him 'free' to be active against Saruman and in the defense of Minas Tirith. If he had gone with Frodo and Sam into Mordor (and he would have probably insisted, and they would have been nuts not to agree!) they would have been much more easily found by Sauron, and even if they had won through to the Cracks of Doom, Rohan and Gondor would have fallen.

EDIT -- hmm and drat Saucepanman, you cross-posted with me and put up a much better and illuminating post. Everyone, if you're still reading this post, ingore it and go back one.

[Orcrist]

I think that if Gandalf had survived Moria he knew that he was going with Frodo, no matter what. I agree that the Fellowship would have been sundered anyway, but not as dramatically. So it goes back to the issue of making the book exciting As I said before: If Gandalf had not fallen, we wouldn't be sitting here wasting our time discussing it.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Perhaps, in both The Hobbit and LotR, Gandalf was trusting in Ilúvatar to finish what he had started.