Good guys of LOTR clueless?

[The Saucepan Man]

I do not seem to recall that there were other rings besides those (at least magic rings made by the Elves in Eregion). Do you or anyone else has any proof to the contrary, that there could be other lesser rings which didn't have gems in them that could have the similar description as Sauron's ring?

Yes.

Gandalf, from The Shadow of the Past:

"In Eregion long ago many Elven-rings were made, magic rings as you call them, and they were, of course, of various kinds: some more potent and some less. The lesser rings were only essays in the craft before it was full-grown, and to the Elven-smiths they were but trifles - yet still to my mind dangerous for mortals. But the Great Rings, the Rings of Power, they were perilous."

So, there were many rings made, in addition to the 20 that are referred to as the Rings of Power. And the fact that Bilbo's Ring conferred the power of invisibility (and caused him to lie concerning the circumstances of its discovery) did not mean that it could not be a lesser ring, since lesser rings were still powerful as far as mortals are concerned. So I would say that vastly narrows the odds of Bilbo's Ring being the One Ring from 7/1.

The difference is that while Eru can see the events from an outside perspective (being God) he probably knows that the things that will happen there will be readressed at a later time eg. Arda remade.

Surely that makes him all the more incompetent. He could see that much suffering would take place and yet did not take early action to prevent this, despite clearly having the power to do so. Gandalf, however did not have the luxury of seeing things from the "outside perspective". If he had had that luxury, no doubt he would have acted differently.

[Maédhros]

So, there were many rings made, in addition to the 20 that are referred to as the Rings of Power. And the fact that Bilbo's Ring conferred the power of invisibility (and caused him to lie concerning the circumstances of its discovery) did not mean that it could not be a lesser ring, since lesser rings were still powerful as far as mortals are concerned. So I would say that vastly narrows the odds of Bilbo's Ring being the One Ring from 7/1.

I have seen that before, but my question is, can you be absolutely certain that the many doesn't mean the 19 that the elves made?
Is there any reference elsewhere that mentions a Ring made by elves of Eregion which were not those used by the dwarves, men and elves? I haven't seen it.

Surely that makes him all the more incompetent. He could see that much suffering would take place and yet did not take early action to prevent this, despite clearly having the power to do so. Gandalf, however did not have the luxury of seeing things from the "outside perspective". If he had had that luxury, no doubt he would have acted differently.

It is interesting in trying to secong guess god. My argument for his sake is the one that I see in the Ainulindalë that all of the things that Melkor did would be redress in Arda remade and that world would be better than Arda unmarred. I would guess that God would know that the suffering in that time was for the making of a greater world.
Of course Gandalf being inside ME would have no such concept. The question that arises is that if Gandalf could have made the "good guys" beat Sauron 50 years earlier would he have done it?

[Earendilyon]

Originally Posted by Maédhros

I have seen that before, but my question is, can you be absolutely certain that the many doesn't mean the 19 that the elves made?
Is there any reference elsewhere that mentions a Ring made by elves of Eregion which were not those used by the dwarves, men and elves? I haven't seen it.

There's of course this by now famouts quote, you yourself posted on page 1:

"The Nine, the Seven, and the Three," he said, "had each their proper gem. Not so the One. It was round and unadorned, as it were one of the lesser rings; but its maker set marks upon it that the skilled, maybe, could still see and read."

As we know, that the Rings of Power had gems, the passage about 'lesser rings' was not referring to those (although they were lesser in power than the One). If not referring to the other 19 Rings of Power, the phrase refers to other lesser rings. Taken together with the quote The Saucepan Man posted, I think there's evidence enough for the existence of unadorned rings, which had some kind of power, but were not Rings of Power.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have seen that before, but my question is, can you be absolutely certain that the many doesn't mean the 19 that the elves made?

Yes. There can be no doubt about it. Both the passage that Earendilyon quoted and that which I quoted distinguish the lesser rings, which Gandalf describes as trifles for Elves but dangerous to mortals, from the twenty Rings of Power, ie the Three, the Seven, the Nine plus the One Ring, which he describes as perilous. It is clear from this that the Elf-smiths of Eregion created rings other than the Rings of Power. And the word "many" combined with the reference to them being "essays in ring craft" strongly suggests to me that there were quite a number of these lesser rings.

[Maédhros]

Yes. There can be no doubt about it. Both the passage that Earendilyon quoted and that which I quoted distinguish the lesser rings, which Gandalf describes as trifles for Elves but dangerous to mortals, from the twenty Rings of Power, ie the Three, the Seven, the Nine plus the One Ring, which he describes as perilous. It is clear from this that the Elf-smiths of Eregion created rings other than the Rings of Power. And the word "many" combined with the reference to them being "essays in ring craft" strongly suggests to me that there were quite a number of these lesser rings.

Yes, I have to agree with that. I thank you for showing me that. Nevertheless, this same fact make the good guys all the more incompetent.
Consider:

1. Gandalf felt uneasy about Bilbo's ring.
2. Gandalf knew that both rings had similar descriptions 11 years after Bilbo returned to the Shire in the White council discussion.
3. Gandalf while in that council mistrusted Saruman as to not tell him about Bilbo's ring but was satisfied about his conclusions that the ring could not be found.
4. In a world where gut feelings are as important of more important than common sense then was Gandalf not following his feeling odd?
5. If they were m lesser rings, what was the probability that Bilbo's ring was Sauron's? P=1/(m+1). Where m = the amount of total lesser rings. If m is big number, then the probability decreases.

With all those facts, do you really think that it deserved an investigation?

Lets look at what Gandalf did. He thought that m was a big number so that the probability of Bilbo's ring being Sauron's was almost nil.

It is in the year 3001 TA that Gandalf suspects that Bilbo's ring can be that of Sauron. What if Bilbo's ring turned out not to be that of Sauron, what could the good guys have done to defeat Sauron at so late a date in the TA? What was the plan? Did they even have any?
Could they overthrow Sauron by force of Arms? No.
What in Gods name would they have done if they had not found the One Ring?

[symestreem]

Originally Posted by Maédhros

4. In a world where gut feelings are as important of more important than common sense then was Gandalf not following his feeling odd?

Can you elaborate on this?

It is in the year 3001 TA that Gandalf suspects that Bilbo's ring can be that of Sauron. What if Bilbo's ring turned out not to be that of Sauron, what could the good guys have done to defeat Sauron at so late a date in the TA? What was the plan? Did they even have any?
Could they overthrow Sauron by force of Arms? No.

There was no reason to believe that the One Ring had not washed out to sea until Gandalf noticed Bilbo's ring. Remember, Sauron in the form of the Necromancer had just suffered another defeat, one which would not have been possible if he had the One Ring. At this point, there was no reason to believe Sauron would return. He needed the ring for that, and the ring was lost.
Besides, even if Sauron had gotten the ring, he had been defeated with it before. True, more elves, larger armies, etc.

[Kuruharan]

4. In a world where gut feelings are as important of more important than common sense then was Gandalf not following his feeling odd?

I, along with symestreem, would like some clarification on why this is so.

There was no reason to believe that the One Ring had not washed out to see until Gandalf noticed Bilbo's ring. Remember, Sauron in the form of the Necromancer had just suffered another defeat, one which would not have been possible if he had the One Ring. At this point, there was no reason to believe Sauron would return. He needed the ring for that, and the ring was lost.

While I agree with the gist of symestreem’s statement, I feel that it should be acknowledged that Sauron did flee of his own accord. However, there was no way that the Wise could know this. They only had enough information to judge the matter on face value.

It is in the year 3001 TA that Gandalf suspects that Bilbo's ring can be that of Sauron. What if Bilbo's ring turned out not to be that of Sauron, what could the good guys have done to defeat Sauron at so late a date in the TA? What was the plan? Did they even have any?
Could they overthrow Sauron by force of Arms? No.
What in Gods name would they have done if they had not found the One Ring?

They would probably have conducted a nasty protracted defensive war. Weird things happen when the real gut-splitting and axe-smacking start. As was actually seen, the forces of Good were quite capable of inflicting devastating defeats on Sauron’s armies. They may have forced Sauron to draw off for a time.

But, aside from this, the Wise (and Gandalf in particular) demonstrated their competence by recognizing what to do with the Ring when they had it and by doing their best to see it through. Gandalf admitted that he made mistakes but that does not mean that he was incapable of the task at hand. Very few people can accomplish anything without making mistakes of some sort.