LotR -- Book 2 - Chapter 03 - The Ring goes South

[Bêthberry]

There were also Nine ships which bore the Faithful towards the shores of Middle-earth: "four for Elendil, and for Isildur three, and for Anárion two." (Akallabêth )

As to the weather, a couple of points.

Also from Akallabêth, there is a passage which explains how weather had become separated from the "needs and liking of Men" as the Numenorians declined further and further into their false worship. (Hang on, I'm not saying that there is special intervention.)

Now aforetime in the isle of Numenor the weather was ever apt to the needs and liking of Men: rain indue season and ever in measure; and snshine, now warner, now cooler, and winds from the sea. And when the wind was in the west it seemed to many that it was filled with a fragrance,f elling but sweet, heart-stirring, as of flowers that bloom for ever in undying meads and have no names on mortal shores. But all this was now chnged' for the sky itself was darkened, and there were storms of rain and hail in those days, and violent winds, and ever and anon a great ship of the Numermoreans would founder ...

Of course the storm on Caradhras is very different. As Aiwendil says, it is evidence of how the geography of Middle-earth is a separate entity and personality which the races must learn to accomodate. Yet at the same time it seems also to me evidence of the 'fallen' nature of Middle-earth. The peoples of Middle-earth are not in an earthly paradise but struggle in a land whic does not serve their bidding or their needs. They are alienated.

I cannot help but wonder why the Fellowship had to delay so long. Was it really necessary for Elrond to send out messengers to attempt to track down the Ringwraths? Was the two month delay crucially necessary? The messengers passed freely over mountains unencumbered by winter storms. How would the discovery of any Wraiths surviving in form and body have changed the plans to destroy the Ring in Mount Doom?

Bilbo blames Frodo for setting up the initial delay by not leaving the Shire until after their birthday. Yet it all serves, to me, to show that even with the best of intentions decisions in Middle-earth can err. It lends an incredible credibility to me, part of the tangible sense of reality in this fantastic world. The first challenge the Fellowship faces is not some mythical entity of terror but the looming weather, brought on my their own decision to wait to see if it is safe to go out.