Tol-in-Gaurhoth (Isle of Werewolves)

[Mithalwen]

I have yet to review the discussions in the light of the recent events but I can now sadly reveal the reasoning behind my choice of Firefoot. I was genuinely torn since Anguirel and Fea did seem to be hand in glove. However I decided to work on the hypothesis that Fea was an innocent though rashly outspoken villager.... the attack on the innocent SpM was fierce. I looked at the other people Anguirel had defended. Firefoot was prominent. Then there was Oddwen's immediate accusation - albeit subsequently withdrawn.

I thought that Oddwen might be the seer and had withdrawn her comment to protect her identity when another werewolf had been identified. I got very confused by all the cross debate but looked at who also accused Firefoot. Mormegil was prominent again and I did wonder if he might be the seer if Oddwen wasn't.

Obviously I dared not compromise an innocent life by risking identifying the seer. Also I was not confident enough to try to lead. I only had the same information as you. I had to leave it to your own examination hoping that you would understand or at least understand enough to keep silent. I hope that Mormegil's indication of that did not sign his death warrant.. Of course it might have made you think I was the seer but I went on logic then a leap of faith on a hunch.

Fellow citizens, I may have to make an early vote, I beg you to make up your own minds. I will post my reasoning if I have any but it may end up being a stab in the dark.
If we make the right choice now, no more innocent lives will be lost and we will have no innocent blood on our own hands. Choose wrongly and at least two more innocents will die. I do not think I can hope to survive if the wolf is not caught tonight. I am here now I fear because Mormegil had special knowledge...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Mith, I hate to say it, but I think you're right. You're too smart. You've calmly and collectedly read the debate and come up with accurate suspicions. That makes you a danger. I have a feeling you'll die tonight, although me saying that may sign my own death warrent if it's not already a given. I'm not saying I'm going to kill you, I'm just saying that the chances of you being slaughtered brutally tonight are roughly the same as mine were yesterday of being lynched. I wish you luck.

Like you, I'm torn. I really don't see Primrose as guilty, but I have this insane gut feeling I can't get rid of. Kuru worries me also. He's been voting late, and only when it's inevitable what the outcome will be. A few posts ago, he tried to shift attention to Oddwen and bilbo. Oddwen I don't think is guilty, but I could be dead wrong. She fits my suspicion of "the sneak", seeing as that she's just sticking her head in and out enough to be present, but not enough to draw attention. To quote myself, flying under the radar.

[Kuruharan]

sorry Kuru

Don't be so apologetic. 'Tis quite alright. You wouldn't be doing your duty if you did not mention everyone.

However, I do have a few things I'd like to say...

And did you notice that Kuru did not seem too anxious to go along with the kill Firefoot vote? Was he hoping to stick to the original plan of killing Fea because he knew Fea to be an innocent?

Ahh, I suppose that does look a little awkward. Aside from loudly squawking my innocence to the heavens (which even I would tell you not to believe just because I say it), I do have an explanation to offer.

I admit I was wrong about Firefoot and mormegil. I was suspicious (especially in the beginning) because a lot of the things mormegil said struck me as a bit of a stretch. I was also a little bit put off by the loud way he claimed his presentation was the most cogent one being put before the jury. As I am sure you have probably concluded by now, I'm a pretty cynical and flinty ole cuss who is apt to view with a certain degree of skepticism anyone who is making such large claims about the virtue of their own work. I was also, at the very end (and this perhaps does not reflect entirely well on my own personality ), a little bit annoyed with his refusal to go into much detail after I'd asked for a restatement of everybody's views. The thought crossed my mind that he wanted me to go back and take the time to hunt up all his posts on the subject, hoping that I would just read his posts and forget everything else that had been said in the amount of time it took to read it. It seemed like a werewolfish trick to me.

Obviously I was wrong about him. It did occur to me that he might be the Seer, but I was just never quite convinced of it. I ultimately went along with it because I was having a little get together at my place last night and I wanted to get the vote over with and not have to stick around for runoffs etc. when I was pretty certain how things were going to turn out in the end.

(Said get together is the reason why I'm a bit tardy putting in an appearance this morning...or, afternoon rather.)

I'm glad I doubted my own infallibility (and had a pressing social engagement...).

I might have been more willing to believe that mormegil was the Seer except for another confounding factor. While I now totally agree that it seems likely that Feanor is as pure and innocent as the wind driven snow (at least as far as being a werewolf is concerned) I think everyone will admit that her behavior created a certain...impression in the minds of many.

I, quite frankly, was at a complete loss to explain her behavior. The only way it made any sense in my mind was that Feanor was a werewolf. I just couldn't understand why she would act in such a...well, bizarre manner unless she were trying to get everything all hopelessly stirred up and confused so that nobody would think straight and we'd be more likely to make mistakes.

As a matter of fact, now that I think she's innocent, I'm even more puzzled than I was before...oh well.

I feel compelled to repeat my question of yesterday and hopefully this time I'll be able to extract a more satisfactory answer from somebody. Where have bilbo_baggins and Oddwen gone off to?

We are reaching the stage where we are running out of delators so I feel compelled to point out that bilbo_baggins made a fair amount of fuss and bother on DAY ONE and has gone suspicious quiet ever since. (Almost as if he took a hint from something.) Not accusing, mind you, just asking for an explanation. It is in our best interests to be as thorough as possible.

[the phantom]

I was suspicious (especially in the beginning) because a lot of the things mormegil said struck me as a bit of a stretch.

That is what made me suspect that he might be a seer trying desperately to make a good case against a known werewolf.

I, quite frankly, was at a complete loss to explain her behavior. The only way it made any sense in my mind was that Feanor was a werewolf.

As you can see by my attacks on her, I was thinking the same thing as you.

As a matter of fact, now that I think she's innocent, I'm even more puzzled than I was before...oh well.

Ha ha! Me and you both.

Just to reach a more certain conclusion about Fea, I'm going to repost everything Morm said about Fea yesterday.

While not fool proof I think we can see that Anguirel supported Firefoot and Feanor. Could it be that she tried to calm our suspicions and throw us off their tracks?

Currently my heart pities poor Feanor and her pleas seem to be that of an innocent. Seem mind you, I'm not certain, but unless I get a good alibi from Firefoot my heart directs me to her being the werewolf among us.

My attitude toward Fea has lessened, but I don't think she is clear. One might still hold suspicions of somebody but set that aside to single out somebody he has much more suspicion of so as to more fully focus his attention.

Feanor, I never said I thought you to be innocent. I did say that I didn't view you as suspicious. I currently feel that we have a much stronger case, based on the evidence I presented, against Firefoot than we do on you. It is interesting to me though that in your list the only one, besides yourself, that you don't have any suspicions of is Firefoot.

I am not ignoring the Fea arguement I merely think that the evidence more fully implicates Firefoot. I still have suspicion on Feanor and it is growing with each post, however I feel much more strongly that Firefoot is the one we need to hang. I will not say please reconsider your vote because if Fea is hung and she is a wolf it will implicate me. But, as I have said I do have suspicion on her but not as much as I do to Firefoot.

There is some suspicion of Feanor, which I uphold but that phantom is spearheading. There has been this suspicion since the first day but doesn't seem to be founded on much evidence albeit there is some and she appears to be somebody to watch.

Is Fea truly "as pure and innocent as the wind driven snow"?

What if Morm did not dream of Fea. If he knew her to be innocent, I doubt he would have mentioned her as many times as he did. He could have just put forth his second quote about her pleas "seeming to be that of an innocent", and stopped there, but he continually brought up Fea and said that she was not excused.

Or was he doing this because going after Firefoot and ignoring the obvious day 1 suspect (Fea) would absolutely for sure mark him as the seer? That certainly makes sense.

Perhaps he figured that Fea would get lynched anyway and so he did not dream about her, and picked someone else to dream about just in case they were the third werewolf.

But since he already knew about Ang and Firefoot, why would he go searching for the third if he already suspected that Fea was the third? If Morm was certain about Firefoot already, you'd think he would have dreamed about Fea, which means that his attempts to move our votes from Fea to Firefoot prove Fea's innocence. After all, if he knew that both were wolves, why would he care which one got killed first?

But, it is still possible that he, instead of attempting to prove his suspicions about Fea, dreamed about someone entirely different, such as Primrose or I. That way Morm could finger the hidden third werewolf if Fea turned out not to be a wolf after we hung her on day 2, which the night before, seemed to be a certainty since there was a "hang Ang, hang Fea" plan.

Do you see the logic behind that? Morm thought "Yes, Fea might be the wolf, but since I already know the villagers are going to lynch her tomorrow I'm going to dream about someone else just in case it isn't Fea."

But once day two started rolling, Fea's hanging was up in the air (pun ), and so Morm, who had failed to identify a new wolf during the night, saw that there was a very real opportunity to hang a for sure werewolf- Firefoot, rather than a maybe wolf- Fea.

This makes perfect sense, though it is not, of course, necessarily what happened.

But I think that I have proved, Kuru, that Fea is not "as pure and innocent as the wind driven snow".

(and yes I know- I shouldn't apologize- but sorry Fea)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

While I now totally agree that it seems likely that Feanor is as pure and innocent as the wind driven snow (at least as far as being a werewolf is concerned) I think everyone will admit that her behavior created a certain...impression in the minds of many.

Me? Create impressions of myself? Why ever would I do such a thing as you say? What point or purpose would that serve to anyone? Honestly... what reasoning would I have to do that... you make it sound like I was trying to get myself lynched.

I, quite frankly, was at a complete loss to explain her behavior. The only way it made any sense in my mind was that Feanor was a werewolf. I just couldn't understand why she would act in such a...well, bizarre manner unless she were trying to get everything all hopelessly stirred up and confused so that nobody would think straight and we'd be more likely to make mistakes.

Have you ever heard the phrase "wolfish grin"? Well I'm giving you one now. Not because I'm a wolf, mind you, but because it's just the thing to do. You're spot on about trying to get everyone stirred up and confused and likely to make mistakes. But the mistakes I was aiming for are not so much the lynch-the-innocent variety of mistake as the hastily posted defenses of randomly speared people. You can judge a person's sincerity by how they respond under pressure.

As a matter of fact, now that I think she's innocent, I'm even more puzzled than I was before...oh well.

Oh good. My life's purpose has been fulfilled. I hope I didn't clear too much up with this post... a little bit of mystery surrounding a girl is the way things are supposed to be.

Oh, and given his response, I think Kuru's innocent. If you're not, than I'll tell you what swayed me anyhow: You are, thus far, the only one to think aloud that my ramblings might be more than meets the eye.

And now, I must away... art show tomorrow, and we aren't ready!

[Mithalwen]

I have indeed analysed this and (sad to say copious note taking and even charts are involved). I am not completely confident but I don't think I am going to become more sure in the timeI have available (I hoe to check in first thing but it is not certain. Therefore I must vote now. So since it is not impossible I will change my mind if I see new evidence (and maybe this post will send the hounds in to draw a covert..). I beg you again to look at the evidence clear eyed. Apart from the fact that I feel certain to be the next victim, this ius our last best chance. Once the numbers reduce, it will be easier to get a majority. So look at the evidence and see if your conclusions agree with mine. Do not take my conclusions and make the evidence fit. I know this sounds arrogant but I know my success has attracted followers as well as enemies - and maybe followers who are enemies?

As I have reviewed the case and have divided the survivors into categories of suspicion. I have absolute confidence in noone but myself. However:

I suspect least perhaps Oddwen her only significant action has been to accuse Firefoot. To point a finger so decisively at a fellow werewolf would be a bizarre opening salvo when the game was so open right at the beginning. Again it woulod have been so much easier to join in witht he SPM stitchup .... even with muted enthusiasm.

Bilbo Baggins is also low on my list of suspects - Anguirel accused BB first before jumping on Fea's SpM band wagon.

Phantom -was accused early accused by both hanged werewolves. Others had suspicions (unfortuante name..) but I think maybe the Werewolves were unlucky that this bait wasn't picked up. Also, he has, as I have, used analysis with similar conclusions on Anguirel.......... so on the whole I wopuld be astounded if he were the remaining lycanthrope. But I will be too dead to be astounded if this is the case

I suspected Fea so much - it waspartly the irrational tie of friendship that made me choose Anguirel first and I had to be so careful last night to make sure it wasn't that that encouraged me to follow my instinct about Firefoot. However the words of Mormegil and Firefoot's accusation have helped move her off my immediate hit list ....

This leaves Kuruharan and Primrose Bolger. Kuruharan made me slightly suspiciou by his interest in my ideas, extreme reticence and late vosting. Just too passive for someone who was so enthusistic about the game. Too much the wise old owl. Also he said something about the least bloodthirsty being innocent... however he may just be playing the observer.. but I just felt he was letting others do too much of the work... and I was unnerved by his eagerness to make me expose my ideas more - become even more suspicious. I was scared of either being thought the seer or exposing the seer. However this is all circumstantial and not conclusive.

So.... Primrose has been too quiet... but she has been around. Like Anguirel she immediately attacked Bilbo, she was supported by Anguirel, she joined into the attack on the pan man. She has NOT voted but attempted to align herself with those who justly voted to lynch Anguirel and used it as a cue to encourage a summary execution of Fea before we could consider calmly. I do think it is likely that the third werewolf is one of the quiet ones - the ones you have to watch. And on balance of probabilities I vote ++ Primrose Bolger

[the phantom]

We have three tries to hang the werewolf. My top three suspects, in order, are Primrose, Fea, and Kuruharan.

I stated my case for Kuru here.

I showed that Fea was not in the clear here. The fact that she voted to kill Firefoot doesn't excuse her since, really, it was a choice between Firefoot and herself.

On day one, I suggested that Primrose was the hidden third werewolf. Mithalwen has already stated the reasons.

Who will I vote for?

I don't know right now.

[bilbo_baggins]

I must add now, with a bit of amusement, that since there is only one werewolf left, Oddwen's and my not being able to post cannot really count for evidence as there are two of us...

I am split currently (having taken this time to read the discussion so far) between two unmentioned people. I don't like to vote as of yet, because of the danger of hanging an innocent and ruining our perfect score...

bilbo_baggins

[Primrose Bolger]

Holy guacamole! The seer is shredded!

And geez, now this frightened old village gammer is in danger of being lynched . . . I have nothing to show but my bloodless hands . . . oh, and you can check my teeth if you wish - no bits of seer-flesh stuck in the gaps and crevices . . .

'Flying under the radar'! I can hardly walk, much less flap my scrawny old arms fast enough to fly at all. Choose me, and two more villagers will have to die before the last beast is found.

I am sticking with my previous vote, prompted all the more so by the fact that the Seer was still looking hard at her:

My attitude toward Fea has lessened, but I don't think she is clear. One might still hold suspicions of somebody but set that aside to single out somebody he has much more suspicion of so as to more fully focus his attention. -- mormegil

++ Fea

. . . sigh . . . do what you will . . . I've had a good life . . .

[Kuruharan]

I just had it pointed out to me that I went and did a really stupid thing.

I forgot that we have 24 hours during the DAY rather than 12.

Ooops! Is my face red?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

But I think that I have proved, Kuru, that Fea is not "as pure and innocent as the wind driven snow".

You doubt my purity and innocence? If only I had a glove or gauntlet around to challenge you with... Come now friend, all you've proved is that since I was a shoo-in to be lynched yesterday, mormegil didn't waste his dream on me. He didn't actually know for certain I was innocent. That doesn't mean a darned thing, given that none of you actually know anything. Especially given my talent for riling everybody up, as well as keeping y'all in a constant state of confusion. Eh, boys?

Since my niggling doubt won't go away, no matter how hard I'm trying to make it disappear, I feel that I really must put forth that ++Primrose is the most suspicious to me. And if she's not guilty, God forbid, than my only comment can be: "Fair's fair, she voted for me first."

[the phantom]

He didn't actually know for certain I was innocent. That doesn't mean a darned thing

You have a weird definition of what exactly means a darned thing. Whether or not the seer knew about you is the issue here- a very important issue. There is a big difference between the seer saying "Fea is innocent" and the seer saying "I don't know, I never checked". Being cleared of all charges by the seer definitely does mean "a darned thing".

But I'm not voting for you anyway- this round, that is , of course I hope there isn't another round after this.

+ + Primrose Bolger

[Kuruharan]

Ahh, one wanderer returns at least.

I am split currently (having taken this time to read the discussion so far) between two unmentioned people.

We only have a few hours left. Might I suggest you mention them?

We have an opportunity to win tonight after all.

But I think that I have proved, Kuru, that Fea is not "as pure and innocent as the wind driven snow".

Weeell, maybe. I guess it's possible. I would say it almost seems like a little bit of a stretch, but I've thought that before and we know how that turned out...

Crikey! I'm all conflicted again...

I'll wait and see if bilbo cares to reveal his suspects...

[Kuruharan]

Well, we are running out of time by my calculation. We're obviously going to have to do something or the Wrath of The Wight™ will descend upon our poor anarcho-syndicalist commune.

*sigh* This is most awkward. However...

After re-reading today's posts and consulting one of the most reliable scientific methods known to the Free Peoples, mentioned in our books of Arcane Lore™ as "Flipping a Coin" (and doing so several times), I still could not make up my mind.

We seem to have reached a spot where a lot of our leads have kind of dried up (or been hung). However, there is one last little lead left. Even though Mithalwen said some cruel and hurtful things about my intentions and motives (weep, weep, sob )...

(Note to Future Players: Don't compliment people, it seems to only make them suspicious.)

...she pointed out the last lead we have available. I'm not entirely confident in this, but I'm still inclined to believe that Feanor is innocent. In spite of the phantom's articulate reasoning, it just seems like too much of a stretch.

Unfortunately, I'm not entirely confident though, but...

++ PRIMROSE BOLGER

(If this doesn't pan out, then I'm throwing logic to the four winds where it belongs and only believing people who present stretchy arguments.)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Hey, Primrose is dead! I got through another day without being lynched!

Either that means that I am one heck of a liar, or it means that you guys finally figured out that I'm trustworthy, honorable, and pure and innocent as the wind-driven snow. Anyone care to take a guess before we find out what Prim was?

[the phantom]

Either that means that I am one heck of a liar

You probably lie a lot, because you said one time how you looove being called a liar in real life.

Oops, sorry- I forgot... you hate being called a liar in real life. Just a li'l innocent slip up there. Totally unintentional.

you guys finally figured out that I'm trustworthy, honorable, and pure and innocent as the wind-driven snow

You're only meaning within this game, I assume.

Hey, Primrose is dead!

Don't announce it prematurely. You don't want it to end up being one of those Crystal Heart deaths.

[The Barrow-Wight]

Seconds after the fourth and final vote was cast, Primrose Bolger was bound with thick leather bands. To further secure her should she prove to be a werewolf, a set of iron shackles that had been manufactured earlier in the day was fastened round her thick, hobbitish ankles. Finally, every villager armed themselves with sharp weapons. Firefoot had nearly escaped them, and they would not allow this beast to get away.

“I’ve said little to incriminate myself, and almost nothing in accusation of others,” she sobbed. “My votes have always been with my heart, which is pure. You’ll doom us all if you hang me.”

“Save it for the devil,” remarked someone angrily, and another person threw a stone, hitting Primrose on the forehead. Blood trickled into her eyes, which remained alert. As the pain of the blow passed, the smile faded from her face, and she spat contemptuously at her captors.

“The devil will have all of you,” she shrieked, “for your participation in this wickedness. But the wolf will have you first!”

Another stone struck face, knocking her senseless. She moaned in agony as they led her to the gallows.

A bag was placed over her head, and the noose was drawn tight. With a collective sigh, the crowd watched as she fell with a soft snap. Everyone cheered as her body began to twitch violently, and they all rushed forward with arms raised high.

But she didn’t shake for long. In only a short moment, perhaps 10 seconds, her body slumped and hung limply, devoid of life. After a long silence of horrible disbelief, the villagers began to wail at the evil they had done.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Living

• the phantom
• Oddwen
• Feanor of the Peredhil
• bilbo_baggins
• Kuruharan
• Mithalwen

Dead

• Shelob (Villager) - mangled by werewolves during Night 1
• Anguirel (Werewolf) - hanged on Day 1
• The Saucepan Man (Villager) – shredded and simmered by werewolves during Night 2
• Firefoot (Werewolf) - hanged on Day 2
• mormegil (The Seer) - shredded horrificallyby a werewolf on Night 3
• Primrose Bolger (Villager) – hanged for suspicion of being a werewolf

Score
Werewolves: 1
Villagers: 5

The Villagers aren’t so smart without their seer, eh?

It is now NIGHT (or it will be tomorrow morning at 6AM). The werewolf has until 6PM tomorrow night to kill another villager.

************************************************** ***************
You know, we could speed our games up and still give people plenty of time to get on in any time zone. Starting next game (or even this one if everyone agrees), we could say that DAY or NIGHT starts as soon as the moderator writes the results of the previous phase. Each phase lasts up to 24 hours, but can end much sooner if everyone responds (werewolves decide on their victim/villagers vote a majority) and the moderator has time to write the report. People would not be obligated to hurry, but if result did come faster, then we wouldn't have to wait for so long to begin the next phase.

Please feel free to discuss this idea for an accelerated timetable here while we wait for the werewolf to pick his/her victim .

Thanks

************************************************** **************

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

You probably lie a lot, because you said one time how you looove being called a liar in real life.

Oops, sorry- I forgot... you hate being called a liar in real life. Just a li'l innocent slip up there. Totally unintentional.

Take this as a rule of thumb: what I do say is almost always true. It's what I don't say that you should be worried about.

Don't announce it prematurely. You don't want it to end up being one of those Crystal Heart deaths.

Not even joking, just fell out of the chair. That was funny.

[the phantom]

I like BW's idea for the timing of this game. As soon as he makes his kill announcement, the next phase starts. Everyone will look at the time BW posted and know that they have until that time the following day (if they are having a difficult time making a decision).

And Prim... a heartfelt "oops" from myself and the rest of the village.

We'll be down to five tomorrow. I thought I was going to be killed the night Saucy got done in. Last night I figured Morm was going to bite the dust so I wasn't worried. Tonight- I'm a bit worried. I'm hoping the wolf will kill Mith instead of me, though (no hard feelings ).

Of course, if Mith does turn up dead, I am sure that everyone will be quick to point out that, for the second time (the first being Saucy), the wolves killed who I suggested, so maybe I shouldn't have said that.

Start coming up with theories for tomorrow, people.

[Oddwen]

I'm sorry I don't have time to expound, I can only say this:

The remaining werewolf probably guessed who he was and eliminated the threat.

This to me doesn't sound like Fea or Mith - and I must choose as I probably won't get another chance to vote -

++BILBO_BAGGINS

Sorry my fellow lurker, I hope I am wrong.

Why do I feel like I'm overlooking something?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Staring contest? Yeah... that sounds about right. Actually, I had an RL engagement that couldn't be avoided. If anyone cares, I won best in show.

I'm really bothered now that the phantom is gone. I thought for sure that Mithalwen was a shoo-in. Now, my overly-tired mind is saying to agree with whatever our fair lady says, and then screaming "Wait! She must have done it!" But since I'm so exhausted, I don't even know any more.

But, I'm having a thought here. I'll explain it in the morning, maybe (I will if I can scrounge up any free time). In the mean time, ++Bilbo Baggins. Sorry Bilbo, I'll explain after I log some beauty sleep.

[The Barrow-Wight]

Just so everyone knows, this game is still operating on the original timeframe. That means there is no minimum time (a majority = lynching) but there is a maximum (24 hrs, which = 6PM tomorrow). I'm not saying this to speed you up or slow you down. I just want to be clear that nothing has changed for this game.

[Kuruharan]

I had to ask myself something. And following along with my vow to toss logic out the window I’m going to try to make this as stretchy as possible.

Query: What is the best thing for a werewolf to do during the day?

Answer: Head for the tall grass.

Query: But isn’t this an excessively obvious defense, almost to the point of being unusable?

Answer: Probably.

Query: What would be the best way to shield oneself from suspicion on this count?

Answer: Popping in occasionally to put in an appearance and conversely reduce one’s profile.

Query: Do we have anyone around here who answers to that description?

Answer: Actually, we have two.

Now, the question becomes, which of the two to choose. To put the question another way, which one becomes more obvious by being less obvious?

Oddwen has been most conspicuous with her absence. However, her fingering Firefoot so early in the business seems to point away from her. I can’t think of a sensible reason why one werewolf would deliberately accuse a fellow werewolf…of course, not all the actions that have taken place here have been entirely sensible .

Like the above posters, this directs me back to the person of bilbo_baggins, about whom some suspicions were expressed in previous days. As I specifically noted back in post # 197…

bilbo_baggins made a fair amount of fuss and bother on DAY ONE and has gone suspicious quiet ever since. (Almost as if he took a hint from something.)

His activities seem to have taken the pattern of: stirring about, then a sharp reduction in activities, followed by a reemergence that was just enough to cause him to sink back into mental obscurity. He has given the appearance of bland cooperative non-committal throughout. As a matter of fact, since DAY ONE I can’t find that he’s said anything about anybody. He's just been around off and on. His accusations always seem to be hovering just over the horizon, always awaiting one further development...

Notice, back in post # 74, Primrose Bolger (about whom I feel a little guilty) said…

'Twas bilbo_baggins who came up with that reasoning. To throw us off the track, I think.

They'll be yammering away from the first, those shadowspawn will. Though, I'm thinking they'll let the innocent raise the alarm, then they'll stick their wolfish noses in . . . and all the while laughing at us, and licking their lips at the prospect of taking another down.

It's bilbo_baggins who bears watching in my mind.

However, I'm not feeling particularly hasty. I'm going to go sleep on it and see what council the morning light brings.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Staring contest? Yeah... that sounds about right. Actually, I had an RL engagement that couldn't be avoided. If anyone cares, I won best in show.

I'm really bothered now that the phantom is gone. I thought for sure that Mithalwen was a shoo-in. Now, my overly-tired mind is saying to agree with whatever our fair lady says, and then screaming "Wait! She must have done it!" But since I'm so exhausted, I don't even know any more.

But, I'm having a thought here. I'll explain it in the morning, maybe (I will if I can scrounge up any free time). In the mean time, ++Bilbo Baggins. Sorry Bilbo, I'll explain after I log some beauty sleep.

Okay, remember when I said that ^ ? I was almost asleep. But now I'm awake (mostly...) and my thought still seems pretty decent, even though it's really cold and heartless.

Oddwen
Feanor of the Peredhil
bilbo_baggins
Kuruharan
Mithalwen

These are these people still alive. I know that I'm innocent, and I'm pretty sure that Mithalwen is innocent. That means that whoever I pick, I have a 1:3 chance of being right about. Since I'm really suspicious of bilbo right now, that just meant that he fit nicely into that little one slot.

And just think... if we kill bilbo and I'm wrong, then tonight the werewolf will kill another innocent. That narrows the list of Alive down to three people. If I'm still alive, and Mith is still alive, that pretty much means I'll know who the werewolf is.

Mind you, this whole cold and heartless thought process works... but it would complicate it a lot if Mith turns out to be the baddie. Or if, you know, I die. Or Mith dies. I've got some loopholes to work out. But yeah, anyways... I got over my passionate pleas for let's not kill the innocent. No matter what, someone will die, so we may as well narrow it down. As long as the villagers win, there'll be a big party to celebrate the fact that not everyone died. And I like parties.

[bilbo_baggins]

I must say that I am sorry that my connection times have been strange, as my computer is failing miserably. I must say that if you want to kill me, please do. I might even vote for myself, to prove my innocence. But senseless killing lost us Primrose. I may remind you that you don't want the same thing to happen again.

And good faith with good faith, Fea? It seems that those who suffer, suffer all the more...

I must say that even if it gets me killed with a phantom vote for myself, I can't decide who is werewolf. There are too many possibilities in this end-game as it were.

I will not renunciate on my first opinions as those are usually right in most people's cases... So two of you are still innocent in my opinion. But I must say that the last werewolf is duecedly clever.

I don't think I will be able to vote before the time has been reached, and I might die then, so I must ++Mithalwen for seeming friendly yet not actually presenting evidence for opinions.

May my death show you I meant no harm.

bilbo_baggins