Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[the guy who be short]

I guess it would give a greater advantage after the Seer's death. However, before the death, it would mean that the ordinary villagers wouldn't receive any real help from the Seer who is meant to subtly help and convince them. If everybody pretends they are the Seer, this advice is drowned, so preserving the Seer serves no purpose.

So much deep thought...
In light of the recent tragedy, I'm offering free Eomer Memorial Carrots to all members of the hamlet.

[the phantom]

If everybody pretends they are the Seer, this advice is drowned

It's not so much that everyone is going to be acting like the seer, but that everyone will be making a guilty or innocent declaration at the beginning of each day. After a villager makes his declaration, it is entirely up to him whether or not to follow it up the rest of the day with accusations.

In other words, I could start off tomorrow by saying "I dreamed that Mormegil was a wolf", but then proceed to spend most of my efforts attacking Saucy and actually vote for him. On the other hand, I could go after Mormegil full force as if I knew I was correct. You see, there are still ways for a seer to stand a bit apart.

But you are right that the plan works the best when the seer is killed. This makes it so that if the werewolves think they know who the seer is, they might gamble on keeping him alive so as not to kill themselves. But if the werewolves correctly identify the seer, it is completely possible that a couple of us villagers will as well and will then follow the seer even before his death.

Obviously it isn't flawless and with bad luck it could really hurt us, but hey- I can't see why we can't give it a shot.

[mormegil]

I'm not sure that I like the protecting the seer idea. I think that it will in fact give the wolves more advantage. The more I meditate on this matter the more convinced I am that it is not the best course of action. If any innocent villager for example were to say I think Person X is the wolf, which if they are not the seer is a complete guess, and it turns out that Person X is also an innocent but wasn't lynched, could not the wolves then kill the initial innocent and fingers would be pointed at Person X the next day? I really don't think this is our best way. Also using the same example let’s assume that Person X is lynched will not suspicion be cast upon the person that in an effort to protect the seer guessed Person X. No this option gives too much advantage to the wolves and will just cause confusion and discord among us the true villagers.

Edit: Also I don't think the short list idea will work for the simple reason that the mod would need to generate that list, as fordim stated. I don't want to speak for him, however I do not think that the rules will change once it has started.

[Kuruharan]

Hmm...much strategizing is afoot here. However, something eventually has to give...

It seems to me that as far as Fordim is concerned he is either offering his idea honestly thinking it will benefit the villagers or he is a werewolf trying to pull the pelt over our eyes.

If he's honest then we should perhaps look at people opposing him. If he's not we should look at people supporting him.

Of course, how do you tell which is which...that is the question.

Barkeep! Bring me another plate of ribs...that's cattle ribs mind you.

On second thought I think I'll have a nice salad...and keep the drinks coming.

[Firefoot]

I'm not really sure about the seer-protection idea. It sounds good, but it seems to me that it could be a real tool for the werewolves; they would probably figure out who the seer is before any of the rest of us, possibly very quickly. You see, if everyone points someone out, the wolves will know immediately if they are telling the truth.

For example:

Let's say Person X. Say Person Y is an ordinary villager. Person Y says: "I dreamt Person X is innocent." Now, the werewolves would know that Person Y was not the seer, because this whole concept is based on the seer telling the truth. This also works in the reverse: Say Person Z, also an ordinary villager, says, "I dreamt Person Y is a wolf." Likewise, the wolves would know Person Z is not the seer, because they obviously know Person Y is not a wolf.

I think we can all agree that having the wolves knowing who the seer is is not in the best interest of the rest of us innocent villagers.

Besides the fact that the whole concept breeds confusion, as mormegil's post clearly illustrates (I think I understand it... ).

And I still have reservations about the short list; actually, I think that in gauging people's reactions to the proposition that we will have a better chance of knocking out a wolf anyway.

[mormegil]

I'm sorry if my explinations are even more bemuddled than usual. I am feeling rather ill today and it's difficult to think clearly. Basically what I was trying to say is this:

Person Y is innocent
Person X is innocent

In an attempt to protect the seer Y states that X is a wolf. Let's assume Person X wasn't lynched that day, the werewolves could use this to their advantage and kill Person Y which would cast suspicion on Person X.

Also if Person Y were to say that X is a wolf and he was lynched, of course the village would find him to be innocent than we are likely to want to lynch Person Y although he is innocent too.

Firefoot brought up a great point too. I think this has to many holes in it to provide effective cover. I think what Kuruharan said has some merit to it.

Kuruharan-- Hmm...much strategizing is afoot here. However, something eventually has to give...

It seems to me that as far as Fordim is concerned he is either offering his idea honestly thinking it will benefit the villagers or he is a werewolf trying to pull the pelt over our eyes.

If he's honest then we should perhaps look at people opposing him. If he's not we should look at people supporting him.

Of course, how do you tell which is which...that is the question.

Barkeep! Bring me another plate of ribs...that's cattle ribs mind you.

On second thought I think I'll have a nice salad...and keep the drinks coming.

First dwarves having salad? What an odd thing .

Secondly and more important I would like to know you're true feelings regarding this matter Kuru not just this safe guarded statement. You sound more like a elf than a dwarf never saying yea or nay

[Kuruharan]

Secondly and more important I would like to know you're true feelings regarding this matter Kuru not just this safe guarded statement. You sound more like a elf than a dwarf never saying yea or nay

Icky, yucky, pooo!!!!

Hmm...why are you so interested?

If you really want to know (and this statement has the nature of an OCC) I think the idea is flirting with the nether-regions of a rule change rather than just a tactical gambit.

[The Only Real Estel]

I feel the need to analize at least a few villagers as I see that our time for decisions is approaching the half-way mark.

Fordim seems to be sitting in a nice spot. He has referred before to a sort of 'system' that he had figured out before--only he never got the chance to explain it. It could be that he is now implementing it to really help us, or it could be that, being a werewolf, he sees this as a convienent time to bring out his system. Surely no one that would go to such great lengths to help us could in fact be scheming behind the scenes, right? Um...right? One can't help but be a bit suspicious, but I'm not ready to lynch him on the what might turn out to be extremely faulty grounds (when has seeking to help those around us ever been grounds for lynching?).

Whether we end up implementing Fordim's plan or not seems to remain to be seen. I'm caught in the middle of it myself (as I've said before). If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious. At the same time I realize that he could have perfectly impeccable motives for not liking the new plan--as I said I myself have reservations but neither do I suspect myself.

As to Mormegil, I think we can be fairly certain that we know absolutely nothing about his innocence or guiltiness. One cannot proclaim him guilty simply because of his profession (one could argue that because my business has fallen on hard times that makes me a desperate man [or wolf], so our choices of employment cannot realy be used against us).

What it comes down to is first roundishness, pure & simple. Very few facts, and so very few accusations. None of us want to make a snap accusation or vote, because we will be looked upon darkly if the lynchee (is that a word? now it is...) turns out to be innocent. But if no stones are cast, we cannot hope to stop the fiends. It is a pretty corner that we've been painted into. I personally have only one villager that I am keeping a close eye on, but I hardly have enough evidence to share him/her with the rest of you yet...

[Son of Númenor]

The werewolves destroyed both the other villages; I say we might as well try Fordim's idea, logical or no. The only problem is that we may not be able to get the moderator to generate a random list before the day is through.