Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[mormegil]

I'm not sure that I like the protecting the seer idea. I think that it will in fact give the wolves more advantage. The more I meditate on this matter the more convinced I am that it is not the best course of action. If any innocent villager for example were to say I think Person X is the wolf, which if they are not the seer is a complete guess, and it turns out that Person X is also an innocent but wasn't lynched, could not the wolves then kill the initial innocent and fingers would be pointed at Person X the next day? I really don't think this is our best way. Also using the same example let’s assume that Person X is lynched will not suspicion be cast upon the person that in an effort to protect the seer guessed Person X. No this option gives too much advantage to the wolves and will just cause confusion and discord among us the true villagers.

Edit: Also I don't think the short list idea will work for the simple reason that the mod would need to generate that list, as fordim stated. I don't want to speak for him, however I do not think that the rules will change once it has started.

[Kuruharan]

Hmm...much strategizing is afoot here. However, something eventually has to give...

It seems to me that as far as Fordim is concerned he is either offering his idea honestly thinking it will benefit the villagers or he is a werewolf trying to pull the pelt over our eyes.

If he's honest then we should perhaps look at people opposing him. If he's not we should look at people supporting him.

Of course, how do you tell which is which...that is the question.

Barkeep! Bring me another plate of ribs...that's cattle ribs mind you.

On second thought I think I'll have a nice salad...and keep the drinks coming.

[Firefoot]

I'm not really sure about the seer-protection idea. It sounds good, but it seems to me that it could be a real tool for the werewolves; they would probably figure out who the seer is before any of the rest of us, possibly very quickly. You see, if everyone points someone out, the wolves will know immediately if they are telling the truth.

For example:

Let's say Person X. Say Person Y is an ordinary villager. Person Y says: "I dreamt Person X is innocent." Now, the werewolves would know that Person Y was not the seer, because this whole concept is based on the seer telling the truth. This also works in the reverse: Say Person Z, also an ordinary villager, says, "I dreamt Person Y is a wolf." Likewise, the wolves would know Person Z is not the seer, because they obviously know Person Y is not a wolf.

I think we can all agree that having the wolves knowing who the seer is is not in the best interest of the rest of us innocent villagers.

Besides the fact that the whole concept breeds confusion, as mormegil's post clearly illustrates (I think I understand it... ).

And I still have reservations about the short list; actually, I think that in gauging people's reactions to the proposition that we will have a better chance of knocking out a wolf anyway.

[mormegil]

I'm sorry if my explinations are even more bemuddled than usual. I am feeling rather ill today and it's difficult to think clearly. Basically what I was trying to say is this:

Person Y is innocent
Person X is innocent

In an attempt to protect the seer Y states that X is a wolf. Let's assume Person X wasn't lynched that day, the werewolves could use this to their advantage and kill Person Y which would cast suspicion on Person X.

Also if Person Y were to say that X is a wolf and he was lynched, of course the village would find him to be innocent than we are likely to want to lynch Person Y although he is innocent too.

Firefoot brought up a great point too. I think this has to many holes in it to provide effective cover. I think what Kuruharan said has some merit to it.

Kuruharan-- Hmm...much strategizing is afoot here. However, something eventually has to give...

It seems to me that as far as Fordim is concerned he is either offering his idea honestly thinking it will benefit the villagers or he is a werewolf trying to pull the pelt over our eyes.

If he's honest then we should perhaps look at people opposing him. If he's not we should look at people supporting him.

Of course, how do you tell which is which...that is the question.

Barkeep! Bring me another plate of ribs...that's cattle ribs mind you.

On second thought I think I'll have a nice salad...and keep the drinks coming.

First dwarves having salad? What an odd thing .

Secondly and more important I would like to know you're true feelings regarding this matter Kuru not just this safe guarded statement. You sound more like a elf than a dwarf never saying yea or nay

[Kuruharan]

Secondly and more important I would like to know you're true feelings regarding this matter Kuru not just this safe guarded statement. You sound more like a elf than a dwarf never saying yea or nay

Icky, yucky, pooo!!!!

Hmm...why are you so interested?

If you really want to know (and this statement has the nature of an OCC) I think the idea is flirting with the nether-regions of a rule change rather than just a tactical gambit.

[The Only Real Estel]

I feel the need to analize at least a few villagers as I see that our time for decisions is approaching the half-way mark.

Fordim seems to be sitting in a nice spot. He has referred before to a sort of 'system' that he had figured out before--only he never got the chance to explain it. It could be that he is now implementing it to really help us, or it could be that, being a werewolf, he sees this as a convienent time to bring out his system. Surely no one that would go to such great lengths to help us could in fact be scheming behind the scenes, right? Um...right? One can't help but be a bit suspicious, but I'm not ready to lynch him on the what might turn out to be extremely faulty grounds (when has seeking to help those around us ever been grounds for lynching?).

Whether we end up implementing Fordim's plan or not seems to remain to be seen. I'm caught in the middle of it myself (as I've said before). If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious. At the same time I realize that he could have perfectly impeccable motives for not liking the new plan--as I said I myself have reservations but neither do I suspect myself.

As to Mormegil, I think we can be fairly certain that we know absolutely nothing about his innocence or guiltiness. One cannot proclaim him guilty simply because of his profession (one could argue that because my business has fallen on hard times that makes me a desperate man [or wolf], so our choices of employment cannot realy be used against us).

What it comes down to is first roundishness, pure & simple. Very few facts, and so very few accusations. None of us want to make a snap accusation or vote, because we will be looked upon darkly if the lynchee (is that a word? now it is...) turns out to be innocent. But if no stones are cast, we cannot hope to stop the fiends. It is a pretty corner that we've been painted into. I personally have only one villager that I am keeping a close eye on, but I hardly have enough evidence to share him/her with the rest of you yet...

[Son of Númenor]

The werewolves destroyed both the other villages; I say we might as well try Fordim's idea, logical or no. The only problem is that we may not be able to get the moderator to generate a random list before the day is through.

[mormegil]

I would most definitely like to hear from Fordim about how he feels about his idea now that some thoughts have been presented. Perhaps he would have a revised plan or with the new ideas that have been shared he may change his mind completely on it.

[the phantom]

Well, I believe it is time for me to say something. I held my tongue for a bit because I was interested in seeing who would support the plan and why (or who was against it and why).

I'm not sure if the plan was put forward to help the village, to help the wolves, or to see how people responded in order to expose wolves, but seeing as many have made known their thoughts on the plan, it's my turn to pick it apart.

It's time to talk percentages. Firefoot pretty much already made the point I'm about to make, only she wasn't as specific or long-winded as I am going to be.

Odds are that we will lynch an innocent today and that another innocent will be slain during the night, bringing the villager to werewolf ratio down to 9:3.

If everyone was to have a "dream" tonight, what would happen tomorrow? A non-werewolf would have a 25% chance of correctly naming a werewolf. In other words, if a villager says "I had a dream, and person X is a wolf" it is 75% likely that their choice would be wrong, and the wolves would obviously know if they were wrong and rule that person out as the seer. That means that making a random werewolf accusation would greatly serve the wolves. If all nine villagers said "Person X is a werewolf", then probability says that the wolves would then immediately be able to rule out 6 or 7 of us as the seer, leaving them with only 2 or 3 candidates. This would be suicide for the village.

Has no one else noticed this?

Obviously it would be a better idea for everyone to dream of someone being innocent. That way, there would only be a 25% chance of being wrong and thus only a 25% chance of the wolves being able to rule them out as being the seer. But if everyone made an innocent declaration, it would make the seer stick out if he declared one of the wolves to be guilty. So it seems that most of our fake dreams should declare someone innocent, but in order to protect the seer, several of us need to have fake guilty dreams as well in case the seer correctly identifies the wolf. But is giving them a slight amount of cover worth it considering that the person with the fake guilty dream will probably be wrong and immediately ruled out as being the seer?

If you ask me, this plan is a terrible risk. The percentages say that the wolves would be given an awful lot of information in exchange for a bit of cover for the seer. This is not a wise trade off.

Let us say that six villagers make a declaration of innocence and two make a declaration of guilt and the seer also declares someone to be guilty. Odds are that the other two guilty votes would be wrong and that the wolves would cross them off as being the seer, and that one or two innocent votes would be for wolves and thus remove them from the seer candidate list. That would mean that out of nine people, the wolves would have trimmed the list down to five or six candidates. And then, there is a decent possibility that one of those five or six would get lynched that day (the wolves would obviously be trying for it) and then they would certainly kill another that night, narrowing the field to three or four. And the following day when the "dreams" are declared, it is quite possible that the wolves would be able to narrow it down to two, and possibly even one.

I believe that this seer protection plan would ensure that the seer would not make it out of night four alive, meaning that the village would only have the benefit of two seer dreams.

If I was a werewolf I would love this plan.

However, I'm not trying to accuse Fordim. It's possible he knew this and was just getting reactions, or perhaps he hadn't worked the plan out this far.

[Kuruharan]

The length of this is probably going to make people not want to read it and I’m pretty sure I can see how this is going to go, but I’m going to speak my piece anyway. I am pleased to see that there seems to be a general impulse to wait as long as possible.

Okay, the first point is that on DAY ONE The Saucepan Man was the one who first mentioned Evisse’s name as his primary suspect and he mentioned her name three times before I ever mentioned her.

my suspicions are currently primarily directed towards Holbytlass, Evisse and SoN.
-The Saucepan Man post #48

My inclination, therefore, would be to lynch either Evisse or SoN
-The Saucepan Man post #61

Or do I follow my previous strategy and vote for Evisse or SoN?
-The Saucepan Man post #62

(Notice how he had picked the first two lynching victims well in advance of the main event.)

I did not mention Evisse until post #63 when I gave voice to the uneasiness I felt about her. Then in her next post she said something that made me more nervous.

Then in his next post, The Saucepan Man encouraged me in my belief and Evisse suddenly has a much more prominent role in his speech…

Yes, I noticed that too, although it was hedged in such a way as to not look like too much of a reversal.
-and-
I would expect the "supporting" Werewolves to be forthright in their support for the proposals, while suitably hedging their comments with caveats which they could later use to distance themselves from the proposals. Which is precisely what Evisse did
-and-
In fact Evisse seems to be doing a lot of hedging ...

I still have time, but I have pretty much narrowed my vote down to her.
-The Saucepan Man post #76

And then in post #83 he actually voted for her before I did. In fact, he was ahead of me in just about every step on that road.

Now, a good bit of werewolf strategy on DAY ONE is to set somebody up to be lynched by mistake on DAY TWO. I freely admit that I had a rather forward role in Evisse’s death and that played right into somebody’s claws. I light of this we have…

That was what convinced me to vote for her (prompted, as I note below, by Kuruharan)
-and-
But it was Kuruharan's comments that tipped me towards Evisse
-and-
And I am now particularly suspicious of Kuru
-The Saucepan Man post #106

You will note how he immediately began harping on me as his primary suspect and playing up my role in Evisse’s death. That was the moment that I became suspicious of him because I know that I am innocent (and still am innocent, just in case we have a cursed werewolf running amuck).

After I made my post about watching people who were vocal against me, The Saucepan Man goes quiet for hours on end, a fact I noted in post #113, even though if you take a look at his posting record you can see that he was still around during that time. After I say this he pops up less than half an hour later to try to lull to sleep any suspicions my comments might have aroused (post #115)

It was post #120 when I first made an open accusation in Saucepan’s general direction.

In post #124 he contradicts himself (and returns to the old theme of blaming me for Evisse’s death) when he says…

The first is Kuru. He pretty much followed the “under the radar” strategy on Day 1, but ended up edging me towards Evisse and voting for her himself.
-The Saucepan Man post #124

If I was really “flying under the radar” I was not doing a very good job of it if I were so instrumental in his decision to vote for Evisse. In fact, “flying under the radar” implies saying as little as possible although by Saucepan’s account I was egging him on to kill Evisse, which I think I have shown is a matter of some degree of dubiousness (something that I think Saucepan thinks too. More about that below).

In post #128 I repeated my earlier challenge to lynch me and find out if I was telling the truth.

In his next post he says…

What is your evidence against me Kuru? The fact that I voted against Evisse (thanks largely to you)
-The Saucepan Man post #134

Note how he is again trying to tie me to Evisse’s slaying.

In post #138 I called him on his role in Evisse’s hanging (and repeated my willingness to be lynched if it would prove my point.) In post #141 I voted against him and again repeated my challenge to lynch me to test my veracity.

I think at this point I had the werewolves, and specifically Saucepan Man, a little scared. We now get back to the Evisse hanging issue.

In his next post he said…

and I find myself questioning the conclusions that I am reaching.

Take Kuruharan, for example. Earlier today, I was convinced of his guilt on the basis that he edged me towards voting for Evisse yesterday, was directing the voting towards me today and was protesting his innocence too much in the face of very few accusations against him. But this can all be explained innocently. His conclusions concerning Evisse yesterday may well (like mine) have been genuine, he may genuinely (but mistakenly) believe me to be a Werewolf and, if he is innocent, his protestations are understandable.
-The Saucepan Man post #144

Notice how he is now falling all over himself to reverse course and keep me from being lynched because it would have been disastrous for him and probably a couple of his friends as well. He is also in this post utterly pooh-poohing any sinister connotation that could possibly be attached to Evisse’s slaying. This is a complete 180. I think it is not the least bit coincidental that it follows my challenging him on his role in Evisse’s death combined with my repeated invitations to lynch me. He is also trying to downplay any knowledge I may have gained about his role because I’d been accused, even though the accusations against me could hardly be described as “very few.” They were, in fact, repeated incessantly by himself and one or two others who I am ignoring for the present because they are not my targets this DAY.

If I was a Werewolf, do you really think that I would be taking on the role of "sacrificial wolf" to draw attention away from the others?
-The Saucepan Man post #144

As a matter of fact, I can positively attest that this is a quite viable werewolf strategy. It is not as if this has not been tried before . Let a highly visible wolf attract all the attention, delay its own death as long as possible, and then hope one or both of the others can slip through unnoticed at the end. I must say, if that is what the wolves are trying to do, it has certainly been working well thus far.

In post #147 he drops Son of Numenor’s name in from out of nowhere, returning to his secondary punching bag from DAY ONE.

But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN
-and-
And SoN's behaviour does seem the least explicable to me out of everyone.

So I shall vote for:

++ SON OF NUMENOR
-The Saucepan Man post #147

Notice how after that point he kept harping on Son of Numenor, keeping him in everyone’s mind.

And then we have today. A better job of flying under the radar you will never see. I could have taken a lesson or two from him on DAY ONE my ownself, if flying under the radar had been my intention. He makes one post (because he would be too painfully obvious if he did not) and then beat tracks for the tall grass. While he is gone, he does indeed fall off of most people’s radar, mainly due to the phantom drawing attention to himself and some other people stirring the pot.

Then we have my post #209 where I say…

I'm afraid the whole point of Saucepan Man laying low was to have people forget about him in his absence. It seems to be working to the necessary extent of getting people to give him another DAY.

And, LO AND BEHOLD…what happens. The Saucepan Man comes galloping back out from the tall grass trying to pooh-pooh the idea that there is anything sinister in his vanishing completely. Other parts of this post are also a real lu-lu.

But you all have your own minds and were perfectly capable of rejecting the arguments that I was putting forward.

As I noted before, you seem to have hooks through everybody’s jaws and you are now trying to pull on them by trying the whole “Oh, poor, poor, pathetic Saucepan” routine.

While he ever so reasonably and scrupulously avoids directly pointing any fingers at anyone (since as he admits, his advice has repeatedly led to the worst sort of mistakes) he does certainly give the village a shove in the direction of hanging the phantom. And in post #226 he is still at it. I personally think that even if he is not a werewolf, the very fact he is nudging us in that direction is a perfect reason not to hang the phantom this DAY. As he says, he’s not been right yet. At the very least we should do something that he does not want us to do. (Now just watch and see what he wants us to do…)

Now, a few other pieces of business…

Put bluntly, TP is either a wolf or an innocent who is helping the wolves by distracting our attention with his own suspicious behaviour, and slinging enough mud around to fill a horse paddock.
-Fordim

I fail to see how you of all people can be particularly accusatory in this regard. As far as I have observed this has been something of your own MO. I also fail to see why you can suspect the phantom over The Saucepan Man in this area. As a matter of fact, I think that if you are really honestly of that opinion you’d hang The Saucepan Man far sooner than the phantom.

I'm only saying that the damage to us is minimised if we kill an innocent Phantom rather than an innocent Spm.
-Fordim

A Saucepan Man who has specifically instigated the hanging of two innocents over a phantom who did not take a leading role in either (in spite of what might be said about the phantom’s motives in this…)? I’m skeptical of your reasoning (to put it mildly). Ockham’s Razor and all that…

Now I realize that all this is going to be construed that I am defending the phantom. That is not really my intent. I don’t know if the phantom is a werewolf. He might be. I’m intent on getting The Saucepan Man hung and this DAY I don’t really care about anybody else. I’ll worry about them later if I live to see it.

What I disagree with here is the course of action that a large number of you seem to be bent on taking. To me the evidence reads that there is a much stronger possibility that The Saucepan Man is a werewolf than the phantom. This does not mean that I believe the phantom is not a werewolf. It does mean that I think we should hang the Saucepan Man first and then see what happens before we start acting on different speculation.

However, no matter what I say you will believe I’m trying to defend the phantom. If you hang him and he proves to be a werewolf, I suppose it will look bad for me. But it’s looked bad for me already and as I said before I have no particular objection to being lynched if snapping my head off will put sense into some others. However, if he is proved to be innocent, perhaps then you will be in more of a mood to listen. (Although if he is proved innocent then I will probably be killed during the night because that would be the safest time to put me out of the way before anybody could start listening to me again). Of course, I thought you would be in more of a mood to listen today…

To ensure that Shelob cannot accuse me (again) of not having the courage of my convictions…

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN

(Although on the other hand, Fordim does seem to spend an awful lot of time justifying hanging people he thinks might be innocent. This is his second one in a row. Notice how he has also made a rather strange adaptation of my own logic from DAY TWO.)

I also have no doubt that those of you who go to bed will just pop in to vote without reading all this and that this will all be ignored by those who do read it. Oh well, fortunes of war and all that sort of thing you know.