Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[the phantom]

They both sound very pompous

Me? Pompous? No way.

Remember the sig I used to have- "the phantom has posted. This thread is now important."?

It seems to me Kuru and Phantom are trying to scare people into not voting for them

You missed the point of my comment about not voting for me on day one. It was sort of a joke. Evisse voted for me on day one and got lynched. In the last coughgameahem, Fordy voted for me on day one and got lynched. I wasn't trying to scare people- I was noting what I saw as a humorous coincidence.

There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch.

...."THIS IS A JOKE" signs to hlep me...

It had a "this is a joke" sign. Didn't you see that the comment was followed by->

The phantom has been behaving uncharacteristically erratically and has accused mormegil on the basis of no evidence

I didn't accuse Morm so much as I accused both you and Morm together, Saucy. My theory (which I even called "crazy") did have a bit of reasoning behind it. What was it? The reasoning was that you and Morm's finger pointing somehow reminded me of what I did to Nim last time.

And everyone notice that Azaelia doesn't have time to post much, but certainly has the time to pop up and cast a vote for an innocent (me).

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

by->

I didn't accuse Morm so much as I accused both you and Morm together, Saucy. My theory (which I even called "crazy") did have a bit of reasoning behind it. What was it? The reasoning was that you and Morm's finger pointing somehow reminded me of what I did to Nim last time.

Phantom I would ask you a better way to get the conversation started? Perhaps I will just ask..."Okay now somebody killed Eomer I need to know who. You can whisper it to me if you'd like." Come on. Something had to start. To be honest a bit SpM's defense of you has made me a bit less leary of you and I'm not sure if I'm voting for you this round or not. Initially I was but then I read SpM's ideas and I'm willing enough to change my mind if somebody shows me where I'm wrong. Although defending you a bit makes me slightly more suspicious of SpM. I would say that my list is as follows.

Kuru and SoN tied
Phantom--be glad you use to be first
Shelob
SpM and TORE tied

Though I would like to hear anything from SoN today

[Firefoot]

Oddwen - my apologies, I was going for memory (bad me) and now that I look at your post again I see that I was mistaken. Either I completely invented something or I was getting you confused with someone else. That was my fault for not being more careful about who and why I was accusing.

[Son of Númenor]

I apologize for my late arrival today; I was installing a bathtub in the village down the road.

Another reason for my silence is that I am honestly stumped. I suppose I have an inherent inclination not to want to send people to their deaths without solid evidence. A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game. I'm afraid it's only a wild hunch at this point, though.

[mormegil]

Okay here it is and I do hope that I am correct. While I do find Kuruharan extremely suspicious I just don't have that same gut feeling that I do about the phantom The more I think about it the more it looks like, perhaps, that SpM and the phantom are backing each other up. Their actions are very subtle but that is the way of those two. They always seem to have some hidden agenda. Unfortunately, for me, subtly is not my strength. I am open and forthright with my opinions and ideas.

What brought me to this possible connection is SpM's recent defense of the phantom. Mind you it wasn't really strong or overly convincing yet enough to initially change my mind. Also the phantom has implicated SpM and myself and he stated that he felt we were both wolves from the beginning, yet he does little in way of actually going after SpM. If indeed he believes SpM and myself to be guilty and himself innocent wouldn't the logical choice be to go after SpM rather than me? SpM has 10 times the intellect that I do and poses a much greater threat to innocents than I would. So based on that and what I have said before I am voting

++THE PHANTOM

While I don't have 100% certainty of his guilt, he has the most substanial data implicating him to my knowledge and quite frankly I feel more comfortable voting him this day than I do Kuruharan. If he is found guilty I suggest we look closer at SpM and those who support or don't argue one bit against either.

Due to time zones I needed to vote now and not near the end of the day...this round time favors the Brits on that.

It will not suprise me, though, if I am killed tonight.

[the phantom]

Okay, okay! Stop! I've had quite enough of people saying stuff like "phantom's not being himself" and "phantom is acting different".

Of course I am!

I know I'm not supposed to mention the other games, but considering that my current behavior is being compared to my past behavior I feel the need to mention the other games.

Game 1: I voted correctly on day one and we got a wolf. On day two the seer identified a wolf. On day three I had three main suspects and three days in which to lynch them. I never felt out of control while I was alive in that game.

Game 2: I was a wolf, so I knew exactly what was going on, and I had a plan for absolutely everything that could possibly happen. I was confident- not scared of losing in the least.

This game: We lost our SEER the very first day! No one looks particularly more suspicious than anyone else, therefore I have no certainty whatsoever! There are many people that I could work up a theory for (to accuse them), however, I have little confidence in any theory. I know absolutely nothing, and I know that all the other villagers are in a similar predicament.

Is it any wonder that I'm not acting like I was the last two games??

Everyone understand?

So that puts Kuru, Shelob and Holbytlass on top of my suspect list. Along with SoN, for reasons that I have already stated.

I agree with that.

Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy.

I agree with that.

The other two are still with us and are acting mighty suspicious to my mind. Notice in particular how Firefoot seems to be echoing things the Saucepan Man says first and how she defends him now. Notice also how on the first DAY Saucepan Man supported mormegil by suspecting the phantom (post 78). However, mormegil is now following the party line by suspecting me.

I agree with that.

How they voted: SoN tried to shift our glance from SpM, admitting that he might be guilty (distancing himself from him for later purposes?), but asserting that he was too valuable to off now (&, coincidently, it would ruin their secret plan). SoN then cast a random vote, perhaps so that the wolves wouldn't be tied together by their votes?

I agree with that.

A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game.

I agree with that, too!

I agree with everyone!

Do you see my dilemma? Do you see why I am perhaps grasping at straws? Because every single theory offered seems workable, and I have no way of knowing which one (if any) is correct.

The only thing I know is that I'm an innocent villager. That's not much to work with.

We have nothing concrete to go on. You might say "votes", but if we are using votes as our primary evidence, then I should be the last person you lynch today.

Why? Because, my vote is the least meaningful. Yesterday, it was obviously kill Evisse or kill myself. I had zero choice in the matter. We were tied at three a piece, and with the deadline only 20 minutes away it was possible that my vote would be the final vote, so of course I voted for Evisse. It was a no-brainer. It was beyond obvious. My vote for Evisse tells you nothing.

Lynching me today would kill yet another innocent. Pick someone else instead. Yes, it's quite likely that your choice will be wrong, but you definitely have a better shot at catching a wolf voting for someone else considering that I am most certainly not a wolf.

If you keep me around long enough, I may actually be able to form some solid theories to help you out.

Now, I'm going to go to bed for six hours and when I wake up I will read what is going on and cast my vote.

I sincerely hope that I do not awake to find my vote forced towards someone in order to preserve my own skin (like yesterday).

That means no more voting for me! Understood?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

There are many people that I could work up a theory for (to accuse them), however, I have little confidence in any theory. I know absolutely nothing, and I know that all the other villagers are in a similar predicament.

Amen to that! As I stated at the outset today, the outcome of yesterday has dented my confidence in my own efforts at deduction, and I find myself questioning the conclusions that I am reaching.

Take Kuruharan, for example. Earlier today, I was convinced of his guilt on the basis that he edged me towards voting for Evisse yesterday, was directing the voting towards me today and was protesting his innocence too much in the face of very few accusations against him. But this can all be explained innocently. His conclusions concerning Evisse yesterday may well (like mine) have been genuine, he may genuinely (but mistakenly) believe me to be a Werewolf and, if he is innocent, his protestations are understandable.

Kuru is still on my suspect list, but now I am now leaning much more towards Shelob and SoN. Shelob has been present without saying much, she did a volte face yesterday concerning Fordim’s proposals leading her to vote for Evisse (who she was the first to vote for) and she was keen to point out the “double bluff” theory in connection with TGWBS’s death, thus subtly implicating Fordim. SoN has been “lurking” (as Oddwen puts it) in my view, and appears now and then to drop subtle hints, most recently joining those who are seeking to implicate Fordim and myself. His vote yesterday remains unexplained, but might be looked on as an attempt to spread the voting and therefore possibly get two innocent Villagers lynched.

I will not vote yet. We still have over 4 hours ‘til the end of the day, and I would like to hear more from Fordim, Firefoot and mormegil, the Villagers whose innocence I am currently most sure of (to the extent that we can be sure of anything at the moment). I am tending towards voting for either Shelob or SoN, but if I see any convincing arguments in favour of one of them, or against anyone else, I am willing to change my view.

Finally, it seems that quite a few are now edging towards voting for me. Fine. Lynch me of you wish. It would be a mistake, but I am not going to go overboard in defending myself. I would just point out that I have not exactly been backward in coming forward and in sharing my thoughts with everyone as they have developed. In other words, I have not been doing a very good job at deflecting attention away from myself. If I was a Werewolf, do you really think that I would be taking on the role of "sacrificial wolf" to draw attention away from the others?

[Kuruharan]

Also, don't wish for things, even in jest. I mean that as advice NOT a threat.

Actually, I'm not really joking. Clearly some people are not going to stop and look around themselves until I'm out of the way. When I am out of the way, the villagers are going to have a nasty shock and are going to have to start looking crosswise at the people that led them there.

Not only does he continue to accuse me (with very little in the way of evidence, I might add...

-and-

What is your evidence against me Kuru? The fact that I voted against Evisse (thanks largely to you

Actually, if everyone will go back and reread the thread (pauses so everybody can go back and reread the thread) you will notice that Saucepan Man mentioned Evisse as being high on his list of suspects THRICE before I even mentioned her name.

my suspicions are currently primarily directed towards Holbytlass, Evisse and SoN.

-post 48

My inclination, therefore, would be to lynch either Evisse or SoN

-post 61

do I follow my previous strategy and vote for Evisse or SoN?

-post 62

The first post where I mentioned Evisse was post 63.

After I'd voiced my suspicions he would back up what I said but basically let me do his dirty work for him. And also notice how SoN completely dropped off his radar after that.

Also notice in Post 48 how he said he was least suspicious of Firefoot, TGWBS, and mormegil. TGWBS bought it. The other two are still with us and are acting mighty suspicious to my mind. Notice in particular how Firefoot seems to be echoing things the Saucepan Man says first and how she defends him now. Notice also how on the first DAY Saucepan Man supported mormegil by suspecting the phantom (post 78). However, mormegil is now following the party line by suspecting me.

For Fordim's peace of mind (if it matters to him) he's off my radar for the moment.