Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[the phantom]

You are pretty obviously responding to my short list and trying your darnedest not to acknowedge that you are doing this.

Though I don't blame you since you had no way of knowing, you are absolutely 100% wrong. I had most of my accusation post written before you even posted your list today.

I was working on my Saucy-Estel theory before the day was over yesterday. This morning all I had to do was tidy it up a bit.

and yet here you are, accusing them without ever having voted for either of them

The first day I didn't have any chance whatsoever to vote for them. Yesterday I had a chance to vote for Saucy, but I explained why I didn't in my last post.

Today, however, even if the votes are going against me I am going to vote for either Saucy or Estel. I'll give them both a chance to defend themselves and see if one of them turns on the other, but one of them is getting my vote no matter what.

that two of our only three proven innocents cast votes against you

So what? It means nothing. Their votes were no better informed than mine. Only one was a seer, and she hadn't had a single dream. They knew nothing, and you are smart enough to know that Fordim.

And the two that did vote for me were lynched by the village, not murdered in the night by wolves.

Plus, it's not as if I led the charge against them either. I simply went with the flow to save my skin. You can't deny that.

you had a significant number of votes against you in the first place

Yes, and votes can only come from two sources-
1) Villagers, who obviously have no concrete knowledge.
2) Werewolves, who obviously want villagers dead.

As you can see, the fact that people have been voting for me proves absolutely nothing, Fordim. And once again, you are smart enough to know that.

If you keep trying to paint me as a bad guy using completely useless information I will start to wonder if you are the third wolf.

Considering that I have accused two of the three people you claim to suspect, I'm surprised you are protesting. Perhaps the only person off your list you wanted to see lynched today was me, and then when the village found me to be innocent you were going to excuse Saucy and Estel, your werewolf brethren.

Also, maybe whoever noted the link between Firefoot and Saucy was correct, seeing as Firefoot just agreed with Fordim's completely weightless post. Perhaps Estel is in the clear, and Fordim, Saucy, and Firefoot are the wolves.

[the phantom]

It has been about two hours and no one has posted.

Could it be that my posts have struck home and the wolves are feeling pinned down and trying to decide how to turn the tide back without looking too obvious?

I hope that is the reason for the silence.

[Kuruharan]

Could it be that my posts have struck home and the wolves are feeling pinned down and trying to decide how to turn the tide back without looking too obvious?

Oh, I suspect that RL probably has something to do with it too. (Some of us actually have lives outside of cyberspace, can you believe it??!! )

However, there is a simple question I'd like to put before the village (such as it is). Is there anybody here who does not strongly suspect The Saucepan Man? If there isn't, why are we even bothering with this palaver? If there is some consensus on a suspect, shouldn't we act on it? I think that it would be, at the very least, informative.

I think one of the problems the village has been having is they are making this harder than it has to be. Look at the evidence and then make the choice the evidence points toward. And don't wimp out when the time comes and vote for somebody just because it is not a difficult choice or "might be wrong." (coughlikeyesterdaycough) Whatever we do might be wrong. There is no certainty until the end.

[the phantom]

However, there is a simple question I'd like to put before the village (such as it is). Is there anybody here who does not strongly suspect The Saucepan Man? If there isn't, why are we even bothering with this palaver? If there is some consensus on a suspect, shouldn't we act on it? I think that it would be, at the very least, informative.

I agree.

If you go by what people have said and who they have voted for and hold them to it then Kuru, Estel, Fordim, Holby, Shelob, and I should all be willing to cast a vote for SPM, and I may even be forgetting someone. Even if I'm not, that's still the necessary number of votes (six).

[Shelob]

I am willing Phantom...but as it stands now I fear leaving you untouched...

Your SPM/TORE theory still seems too much like an attempt to divert attention from yourself for me to feel comfortable...I understand your reasoning behind it, I even to an extent agree...but it's timing worries me... add to that the fact that you have so closely avoided a hanging not once but twice and it makes me suspect you may be getting desperate to be further from the noose this time round...

But then Saucepan Man has led the arguments against both now proven innocents (though my vote was, admittedly, the first against Evisse)...and he remains a suspicious character regardless of whatever leeways and concessions people make...

...But then it may be neither of you is a werewolf...Either of you, Both of you, Neither of you...It's enough to make one's head ache...

I would vote for Saucepan Man...but I would as willingly vote for you Phantom..

Hold on. Kuru, if you're so confident in your plan why didn't you just vote? (Perhaps I shouldn't read it that you're confident...but that's how it seems to me)...and why do you say "If there is some consensus on a suspect, shouldn't we act on it?" in relation to Saucepan Man?...the two are very close but it seems to me that Phantom is slightly higher today in the town's rough "consensus" than is Saucepan Man...perhaps I'm wrong here but since I've not the time to check I'll trust you all shall either check for me or grant me time to eat before expecting me to check myself...

[The Only Real Estel]

RL is an evil thing. It has kept me away from the thread since 7 am (when nothing had happened yet), & it will keep me from doing anything but catching up on what has been said until later. Later I will post my explanation for voting for Son, repost my explanation for voting for Evesse (given the SpM called them both into question recently), & reply to phantom's theory of SpM & I (it is refreshing to see someone come up with a well thought-out theory and actually trying to back it up with quotes, as phantom as done here - no matter how misguided it is it shows he is not just pulling things out of his...uh, brain ).

Until later,
Estel

[Shelob]

Alright...as I was going on what I recalled since I didn't really have time before supper to go back and read I was wrong in my assumption...

...giving them each a point when someone listed them as suspicous (so person A says "I suspect SpM" it counts as a point against Saucepan Man, person A then says "but I also suspect Phantom" it counts as a point against Phantom, if person A then says later "I still suspect Phantom" phantom doesn't get another point...)

anyway to continue...as the points stand that way (and admittedly it's not a very accurate way...) it's Saucepan Man: 4.5, Phantom 4 (Kuru hinted at SpM in post 175, but since he never named names I counted it only as a half a point)

I'm not sure how to read Holby's post (190)...it says simply that the most suspicion is on those two and actually seems to suggest an idea similar to Kuru's...worst comes to worst it boosts the points up to 5.5 and 5 accordingly...

Also while scanning for something I noticed that Kuru voted for Saucepan Man yesterday, having missed that earlier it seems more likely that you, Kuru, used Saucepan Man here simply as a continuation of your previous suspicions...

Since I have less homework than I expected I'll be on somewhat regularly this evening...and since TORE promises explanations I would rather wait to vote than vote hastily now...

[the phantom]

Read this post, and read it carefully, and tell me if you honestly suspect me.

you have so closely avoided a hanging not once but twice

As I told Fordim, the fact that I've nearly been lynched before means absolutely nothing, since votes can only come from two sources- villagers who know nothing and werewolves who want to kill innocents.

it makes me suspect you may be getting desperate to be further from the noose this time round...

WHAT?!

You "suspect" that I don't want to get hung???

Duh!

OF COURSE I'm trying to get OUT of the NOOSE!!!

NOBODY wants to be in the noose!!!

It's one of the primary POINTS of the GAME!!!

How could you possibly point this out as being something that makes me look suspicious?!

Your SPM/TORE theory still seems too much like an attempt to divert attention from yourself

still seems like it could be an attempt to draw attention away from himself

Since when does an INNOCENT VILLAGER not want to turn attention away from himself and towards possible WEREWOLVES???

I would vote for Saucepan Man...but I would as willingly vote for you Phantom..

For today, I would like you to vote for someone who at least might be a werewolf.

Then, if you still feel like lynching a complete innocent, you can vote for me tomorrow.

but it seems to me that Phantom is slightly higher today in the town's rough "consensus" than is Saucepan Man

Yes, even after I've blown holes through the reasons why they suspect me.

Perhaps a large portion of the vocal townspeople are wolves? Ever think of that?

Now I'm going to hold a conversation between myself and my accusers to point out how flimsy the reasoning is behind my guilt....

"Phantom, you're trying to get our attention off of you."

Um, yeah. So what? That doesn't mean anything. Isn't an innocent supposed to avoid getting lynched and try to lynch wolves?

"Phantom, people have voted for you the past two rounds."

Um, yeah. So what? Any innocent casting a vote has no definite knowledge, and if it was wolves trying to lynch me then that would support my innocence.

"Phantom, two people who are dead voted for you.

Um, yeah. So what? Did they know anything? No. Did I lead the charge to lynch them? No. Were either of them killed in the night? No.

I mean- COME ON, PEOPLE!!!

Does anyone actually have a REASON to suspect me???

A REAL reason???

[Firefoot]

Phantom, (for me at least), it's not so much that you are trying to escape the noose as how you are trying to do it. You are doing two things: getting very defensive and launching heavy duty attacks. It feels desperate (granted, you could be a desperate innocent. No one but the wolves know for sure). But, in-those-games-that-must-not-be-named, when I was a wolf and mormegil started firing heavy-duty attacks on me, I was pulling every evasive and attacking maneouver I could logically find to get the blame off of me (ah, it didn't work. Obviously). When I read your posts, it feels very similar in tone to what I wrote in that first game. I'm drawing from my own experiences (wrongly, perhaps), and this is what I get out of it.

The other problem I have had is that I have hitherto not felt a lot of suspicion towards either SpM or TORE or, in the past two days, Fordim. I realize that SpM has led the charge in the voting of Evisse and SoN, but to me it feels like an honest mistake, maybe because I was making the same ones, even if I didn't actually vote for Evisse. Again, I'm drawing from my own experiences.

The other thing is that you have been careful to distance yourself off from other players; I have some thoughts but no clear idea on who you might be a wolf with. This seems to me to be a good plan for the wolves, since then if one of you goes down, then the rest of you wouldn't. Whereas, if you were to vote for SpM and he was to be a wolf, there would not be much trouble in picking out companions. I have no doubt that accusations would fly in my direction, as well as Fordim's and maybe TORE's, based on your latest post. This does not seem to be a very good werewolf strategy to me.

So that's why I'm suspicious of you, phantom. I don't know if this qualifies for a REAL reason or not, but there it is: my own combination of instinct and reasoning.

[Kuruharan]

Hold on. Kuru, if you're so confident in your plan why didn't you just vote?

It is called being consistant. As I'm sure you have noticed from other places I'm opposed to hasty voting as a matter of principle.

Also while scanning for something I noticed that Kuru voted for Saucepan Man yesterday, having missed that earlier it seems more likely that you, Kuru, used Saucepan Man here simply as a continuation of your previous suspicions

Yes, that is correct. I think Saucepan Man is a werewolf.

I am rather hungry at the moment and want to go eat dinner, so I'm going to save my BIG GRAND THEORY until I return. However, before I go I want to restate my question.

Is there anyone here who is not seriously suspicious of Saucepan Man? The Phantom may be a werewolf, I don't know. But if most people are suspicious of Saucepan, shouldn't we put that theory to the test? If Saucepan proves to be a wolf then we can spend the rest of the time bickering over who to hang next (and that discussion would include the phantom).

I'm afraid the whole point of Saucepan Man laying low was to have people forget about him in his absence. It seems to be working to the necessary extent of getting people to give him another DAY.

[Oddwen]

Are we fortunate that none died or unfortunate? If we are unfortunate, the number of wolves has increased, but if fortunate the guardian knows one person who is innocent.

And what's this - the Phantom throwing a temper tantrum? We're either very close or very obtuse.

I'll have more in a few hours.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

It has been about two hours and no one has posted.

Could it be that my posts have struck home and the wolves are feeling pinned down and trying to decide how to turn the tide back without looking too obvious?

I hope that is the reason for the silence.

I can tell you my reason for not posting is that a preacher may grow weary of preaching when his advice is not heeded. I admit I am not nearly as eloquent as many others in our village but that doesn't make my points and theories less valid, just more difficult to understand .

I know that the phantom would have us believe otherwise but I find it rather telling that both known innocents voted for you. Why I think this means something is that we know that they had no hidden agenda or weren't in cahoots with the wolves, so they truly suspected you. I suggest all other true innocents look at that and think that there must be a reason that they suspected him. Unless there is some major compelling evidence otherwise I think I will be voting for the phantom (again) tonight. I find SpM suspicious but just not as suspicious as I do the phantom.

He has voted for both innocents and both voted for him.

[the phantom]

we know that they had no hidden agenda or weren't in cahoots with the wolves, so they truly suspected you

I have no doubt they did.

And I also have no doubt that, since they had zero concrete knowledge, they were both taking a shot in the dark. And I would add that it was mostly their blind selection of me that forced me to vote for them.

No matter how much you would like to believe it, the vote of a villager with no definite knowledge carries absolutely no weight in determining guilt. Can you honestly not see this?

If I get lynched today and proven innocent, but before I die I cast my vote for you- would that suddenly make you more suspicious than you are? Would it change anything?

No, because I don't have a clue who the wolf is, therefore my vote should not carry much weight.

[mormegil]

sorry for the double post but I didn't see phantom's and azaleia's post yet.

the phantom just said.

Um, yeah. So what? Did they know anything? No. Did I lead the charge to lynch them? No. Were either of them killed in the night? No.

I mean- COME ON, PEOPLE!!!

I think the fact that you didn't lead the charge is very suspicious. Why would a wolf make a common habit of spearheading that? It's more likely for them to be the second or third voice, though I don't eliminate the possiblity of a wolf leading the charge. I think that by your own admission of that you appear more culpable.

[Shelob]

WHAT?!

You "suspect" that I don't want to get hung???

Actually I suspected that you were getting desperate... and I'm gathering that I should be speaking in bullet points, it would cause less confusion...

>Phantom I understand your points.
>However, I still don't believe you enough to say "Oh, well given that The Phantom must be innocent."
>Your point about the votes against you:
"Um, yeah. So what? Any innocent casting a vote has no definite knowledge, and if it was wolves trying to lynch me then that would support my innocence."

what about looking at it like this (and for this I'm assuming that you're telling the truth...since this is for your benefit and you're clearly not going to say anything different)

--you tell us that you're innocent and that therefore the majority of votes against you have been cast by werewolves.
--we lynch you.
--your statement is proved true and you're innocent
--all our sights would be turned on those who voted for you, esp. if they voted for you twice
--The werewolves then wouldn't be able to kill anyone who voted for you because those people would either be werewolves themselves or the werewolves only defense against the gallows
--The next day the werewolves would be really nervous because they would have to divert attention away from their member(s) who voted for you and turn the general opinion against an innocent

>doesn't it follow that one at least of them would slip up somewhere, and that we would finally be able to get a werewolf


>I'm not saying "Oh let's Kill Phantom because of this one possibility"...
>However if you are so sure of your innocence your death could potentially lead us to a werewolf...(so your being lynched would have been a greater help to our villager than your protesting vehemently)
>And if you're a werewolf then we've evened the odds...(and you, knowing this, would try to avoid being lynched)

>well?

[the phantom]

Nice, Shelob. It's nice to see someone doing some real thinking about my guilt/innocence and possible lynching.

There is a big danger in your plan, though. What if no wolves have voted for me thus far? It's easily possible.

So if you lynch me, find out I'm innocent, and then lynch those who voted for me, you'll just be lynching more innocents.

Everyone, listen up. If I get lynched today, DO NOT assume that the people who voted for me before are the wolves. They might be, but maybe not.

I get the feeling that you are (deliberately or not) missing my point

No, how could I miss your point? You stated it plainly. You said that the fact that I am completely by myself an unattached makes me likely to be a wolf.

I responded by pointing out that a villager has much more of a reason to be unattached.

My point is easy to understand and logically sound, so I'm not sure why your opinion hasn't changed.

[Shelob]

"There is a big danger in your plan, though. What if no wolves have voted for me thus far? It's easily possible."

True...but if you're jotting down ideas every chance your parents leave the room 'cause you're supposed to be cleaning then you're bound to miss something...

...If no wolves voted for you...hmmm...

Off the top of my head I would say that we should look then not only at those who voted for you but also at those who were most vocal about your guilt...it widens the field slightly which gives the werewolves more free range...but it also makes it more likely that there's a werewolf/some werewovles in the group... It would be a gamble but then that whole idea is a gamble...

...allright...for about an hour I'm doing homework...I might check here but I'll have no time to post...after that I'll likely be back on to respond to ideas...since This day started at 10am for me I would prefer to hold my vote until the morning but depending on how things go I may vote before going to bed...Just in case you wonder why I've vanished.

[mormegil]

This is a bit of speculation on my part but it's a thought that occured to me that I wanted to present. There is a possibility that if the phantom is a wolf that SpM could still be one and vice versa. They both know that they are at the top of about everybody's list, so it would seem logical that they would disassociate themselves and even attack each other. Though we haven't heard yet from SpM on much today. See how that works. They talk and formulate the plan for this day that at least the phantom will attack SpM because they are going to be lynched. Therefore when we kill one the other would be exonerated. There's obviously no guarantee that I'm correct but it's food for thought.

TORE sorry this is backed up by any quotes but at least entertain the idea.

Fordim I like the thinking about why to lynch the phantom before SpM and I believe there is merit in it.

[The Only Real Estel]

Suprisingly, I find myself doing this, after calming down a bit.
First off, this is not at all a total vote of confidence in phantom! But I do have something I feel is important for you guys to think about.

I'll admit that my suspicions of tp have been heightened to the point that I was considering voting for him tonight. Then I remembered The Saucepan Man. Sauce has posted only once today (that I saw right off hand), & seems to be flying somewhat under the radar. I am still very suspicious of Sauce, & I realized that although I have been keeping an eye on the phantom almost the whole time; perhaps the reason why I am now more suspicious of him is because I know that he has posted accusing an innocent (me). Before I could never know for sure, of course.

I didn't find any real evidence in his SpM/Estel claim, so that made me suspect, added to the fact that I already know his theory to be false. But the fact remains that he may have simply been trying to make something out of a mess that has been our village. I saw no real evidence, but it is hard to come by concrete evidence, after all. I know his theory to be wrong, but I myself posted a very well thought-out theory (or so I thought) of my own that included the late SoN. Obivously I would like to think one can make an honest mistake. Another thing is this: Although I have heard the phrase "you can always tell who is at fault by who denies his guilt most vehemently," I am not sure that it quite applies here. Phantom has certainly denied his guilt loudly, & that is partially what has gotten him to the top of most people's 'lynch list.' But it is sometimes hard to keep your voice down when you feel that other people's accusations of you are especially ludicrous. I wouldn't say that I 'got mad,' but you can probably detect an edge in my voice at times when I replied to phantom's theory involving me.

Besides, there's just something about his posts that doesn't seem to add up. If he were a wolf I would expect him to be more subtle when faced with accusations. His tone of late seems to be one of desperation, as if he can see the village's votes are beginning to be directed towards another innocent (him) & he has to save us from ourselves. Of course it might just be that he is desperate to not be hung so that we'll hang another innocent again instead of his wolfish self, but I'm not sure that this is the case.

This is not at all a total vote of confidence in phantom!

I said it to start, & I'll say it to finish. But I would like to see the phantom live another day, what happens if he does, I cannot guarantee. I think The Saucepan Man is the one to go.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I'm afraid the whole point of Saucepan Man laying low was to have people forget about him in his absence. It seems to be working to the necessary extent of getting people to give him another DAY.

Well, I have had things to do. But the timing was good. I did, and still do, intend to lay low, just as I stated that I would at the outset of today's proceedings. But that's not because I am trying to make people forget about me. I knew after the outcome of yesterday's vote that I would be very much in the frame for today's lynching, and I doubted that anything which I might or might not say would change that. That remains the case (as is clear from what people have been saying). I am also nervous of accusing anyone now, since my previous attempts to find a Werewolf have gone seriously awry. It is dreadfully important that a Werewolf gets hung today and, right now, I am very much afraid of accusing yet another innocent.

Should I attempt to defend myself? Well, I am damned if I do and damned if I don't. If I do, it will be construed as a desperate attempt to save my neck from the noose. If I don't, it will be seen as an attempt to appear honest and genuine. Either way, wolfish motives will be ascribed.

But I will say this. Consider the evidence against me. I was instrumental in the hanging of two innocents. That's pretty strong evidence, isn’t it? Except when you consider (as has been said many times today) that we were all (with three notable, but unknown, exceptions) pretty much shooting in the dark for the first two days. In many ways, we still are. Yes, I pretty much started the ball rolling in both cases. But you all have your own minds and were perfectly capable of rejecting the arguments that I was putting forward. Yet, on each of the previous days, a number of you thought that my ideas made sense (although some of you no doubt did so with ulterior motives), just as they did to me. I would ask that you consider whether my behaviour over the last two days has been that of someone genuinely (if misguidedly) trying to seek out the Werwolves, or a deliberate attempt to lead the village into killing two innocents. If you conclude the latter, then so be it.

As for the remaining evidence against me, this consists of extracts from what I have said either in accusation or in support of one villager or another. Yes, theories against me can be built from those (albeit often quite convoluted ones involving a large degree of “double bluff“), but the same can be said of the things that (almost) every other villager has said.

As I indicated, I am not going to point the finger at anyone today. I will review what others say and vote accordingly at the end of the day. Although I have a few ideas, I currently remain very unsure of who the Werewolves may be, and I do not want to lead anyone down the wrong road yet again. I have made that mistake, and unwittingly done much of the Werewolves’ work for them, for two days running, and do not intend to do so again.

I will, however, make three points that I think may be of relevance.

It seems to me quite possible that on at least one occasion during the previous two days, one Werewolf will have voted for another. If so, it will have been done when it seemed safest to do so, ie when it would not (or would have been unlikely to) have resulted in that person’s lynching. Then, if the voter was then lynched and found to be a Werewolf, the votee would be able to distance themselves from him or her on the basis of that vote. It is only a possibility and is unlikely to have happened more than once (if at all), given the closeness of the voting.

Secondly, I think that people ought to pay some attention to the “tail end Charlie” role. It would seem sensible for the Werewolves to appoint one of their number (although probably not the same person on consecutive days) to hang around at the end of the day and see if they can catch a double (or even triple) lynching. I don’t buy the phantom’s theory that a double lynching would not necessarily benefit the Werewolves. I think it likely that they would go for it if they thought that they could get away with it, since there will always be other villagers to subtly maneuvre into the frame the next day. Given their greater knowledge, they would surely be fairly confident of doing so. That said, it would also be sensible for one or two innocent villagers to hang around at the end of the day to prevent a double lynching (or even catch a double-Werewolf lynching, if they felt sufficiently confident of doing so). So, the fact that someone is, or makes a habit of, hanging around at the end of the day is not necessarily an indication of their guilt. But it would nevertheless be sensible to pay heed to the “tail end Charlies”.

Finally:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Duh!

OF COURSE I'm trying to get OUT of the NOOSE!!!

NOBODY wants to be in the noose!!!

It's one of the primary POINTS of the GAME!!!

Actually, that is not strictly true. An innocent villager should be less concerned about saving his or her own skin and more concerned about finding the Werewolves, even if that means saying and doing things that may result in his or her own death (either at the hands of the villagers or the claws of the Werewolves). This is a team game and the villagers should be working as a team (even if they don’t know their team mates), even if that means that an individual has to risk sacrificing him- or herself for the common good. So overly defensive behaviour is likely to be more indicative of a Werewolf than an innocent villager. I should note that I say that merely by way of an observation, rather than as an accusation.

In any event, it looks fairly likely that either the phantom or I will face the noose today. Obviously, your primary aim should be to lynch a Werewolf. I am not a Werewolf, but I would say that wouldn’t I. So Shelob’s point is a good one. You should also consider which one of us, in death, will tell you more, should we prove to be innocent. You will probably learn quite a bit from either of our deaths. But, if you think that you will learn more from mine, I will understand.

And now I’m off to crack open another barrel.

[the phantom]

Killing an innocent TP brings the benefit of removing his confusing posts from the mix, and clarifying the real status of his posts to date. Killing an innocent SpM carries no equivalent benefit.

Huh?

My posts are confusing?

You must be reading them wrong.

The arguments I've given in my defense have been 100% completely and utterly logical. Not confusing.

My attack posts on SP, Estel, Firefoot, and you were not as solid as my defense posts (obviously, since I'm not absolutely sure of anyone's guilt), but my attack posts were way less confusing than most of the ones gunning at me.

Other people seem to want to lynch me because of a gut feeling or because of meaningless circumstances- no logic involved. When they've tried to involve logic I've blown huge gaping holes in it.

Forgive my arrogance, but my reasoning is a billion times more sound than the majority of the stuff coming at me.

In addition, as Firefoot said earlier, I'm probably less tied to people than anyone else on here, so you would think that my death would be the least meaningful.

Phantom has certainly denied his guilt loudly, & that is partially what has gotten him to the top of most people's 'lynch list.' But it is sometimes hard to keep your voice down when you feel that other people's accusations of you are especially ludicrous.

YES!! EXACTLY!!

I don’t buy the phantom’s theory that a double lynching would not necessarily benefit the Werewolves. I think it likely that they would go for it if they thought that they could get away with it, since there will always be other villagers to subtly maneuvre into the frame the next day.

That's where you are wrong, SP. When there are two very easy to lynch suspects and no clear-cut favorites after that, it is NOT easy to just "subtly maneuvre" another villager in as the next victim after the favorites are gone. After the prime suspects are taken care of new ones have to be found and there is always the possibility that one of the new favorites would be a true wolf. The wolves want to keep this from happening, and so they take their time in lynching the guilty-looking ones and make multiple free kills during the night.

Take it from someone who has done it- that's usually the best way for a wolf to operate.