Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[the phantom]

How does he or she convey this information to the rest of the innocents without the wolves finding out also?

The seer would have to step forward and expose his/her identity. But there is a point that, if reached, it won't really matter if the wolves know who the seer is.

So don't bother with the condescending and infuriating...

What about my "arrogant healer" role don't you understand?

And now let's look at your math skills...

Sure it will, math-boy. If we take one innocent out of the pool, then there are less people for the wolves to kill, thereby increasing their chance of randomly selecting someone we want to keep. If you need smaller numbers, here are some.

There are three fish in the pond, a blue fish, a red fish, and an orange fish. The fisherman is guaranteed to catch one. He has a 1:3 chance of catching the blue fish. If we take out the orange fish and leave it on the shore to die or something equally gross, then there are only two fish left. It means that the fisherman now has a 1:2 chance of getting the blue fish. Capiche?

I can see how this might seem logical to you if you don't think too hard, but there is a huge mistake in your little fish-catching analogy.

You are assuming that it is possible to fish without one of the fish being taken out. That is not the case today. You said-

If we take one innocent out of the pool, then there are less people for the wolves to kill

But what you forgot is that someone will be taken out of the pool NO MATTER WHAT, whether my plan is instituted or not! So your little fish thing doesn't apply at all.

Don't try to beat me at math.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

No. See, we already know that a fish is coming out. That's a freaking given. If we take out our own fish, we definately help the wolves. If we take an educated guess, we probably help the wolves. There's quite the difference there, being that if we guess right, we aren't helping them. There's that margin of hope that we can't over-look.

Don't try to beat you at math? Fine. If you agree to stop trying to beat me. Period.

And did you realize that we're stealing the show? How's about a temporary truce (you're still dumb ) so that we can force some of the others to take action?

[the phantom]

There's that margin of hope that we can't over-look.

But with that margin of hope comes an even larger chance of giving the wolves a huge boost, since as I said before, there is a greater chance of lynching a gifted villager than there is of lynching a wolf.

you're still dumb

*sigh*

You realize that only someone dumb would call the phantom dumb?

How's about a temporary truce so that we can force some of the others to take action?

As long as you promise to behave yourself.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It was bait. It was bait for the werewolves. Werewolves who are intentionally trying to sway the votes and by that means lynch an innocent. Why should you be desparate to take the opportunity to set me up? It was designed so that a werewolf may set me up, not an innocent. Said werewolf would be clutching at straws. Any innocent would have no reason to go anywhere near the straws. By the way, (couldn't help but notice) you did point out my accusations while the phantom was grilling you, despite the fact that I had accused Ang about 30 posts ago. Did you just 'notice' it there and then, yes?

At least come up with a lie when called on it? I don't see the point: everyone can see the game now anyway. I'll lie when it suits me, not when every werewolf has realised what I was plotting. As for subtlety, it seemed subtle enough to fox you. You should have just played along and then maybe, just maybe, we would have a trap for the wolves. Why should you be opposed to this trap? I mean, you are already so opposed to the phantom's. Can you offer any worthwhile suggestions in catching a wolf? Or do you just want to hang those who are trying?

Apparently I said something along the lines of "I just changed my mind about your innocence because you pointed out my mistake".

Ok, ok, this is amusing. Please refer to the mistake of mine that you pointed out. I don't recall it. lmp's point (and teasing) was noted and laughed at. It is his repetition of the point that I am wary of. Why should I be called on the slip over and over? If you see that as a werewolf's slip then suit yourself. Just remember to look at the context of the post; you will see (hopefully) that it was an honest mistake.

Oh, and I didn't say that lmp was guilty. I merely pointed out what I believe to be suspicious behaviour.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Well, what a tangle. I'm not sure what to make of some of this...
But I will place myself firmly against the idea that one of us innocent villagers volunteers to be lynched. As said before, if it's such a great idea, why doesn't Phantom volunteer.
Also, I still don't understand how a guaranteed innocent death is any better for us than risking lynching an innocent. I personally would rather lynch one of my fellow innocent villagers accidentally, without having them volunteer. If we lynch by vote, we at least have some chance of actually picking a wolf. If we lynch a volunteer, we're guaranteed to lose an innocent, therefore lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio. I bet they'd laugh in glee.
I vote for at least trying to lynch a suspicious character rather than lynching a known innocent.
There may be a "statistical disadvantage" as Phantom calls it, but to my mind, a chance is still a chance.

EDIT: In fact, we're guaranteed to lose two innocents before we get to vote again, if we take Phantom's method: one would die and one would be killed at Night. On one hand, we definitely won't lose one of our important villagers, such as a seer or a guardian during the day, but at Night, anything can happen. I'd say we have about the same chance of lynching someone important as the wolves do of killing one tonight. It would be a shame to lose a seer or guardian or hunter this early in the game, but I prefer to take the route that provides us with a possibility of lynching a wolf instead of definitely losing an innocent villager. If we vote, we at least have a chance of success.

[the phantom]

As said before, if it's such a great idea, why doesn't Phantom volunteer.

You're right. That was "said before", and it was also answered before, so it was rather pointless for you to repeat, unless you are merely trying to plant a bug in people's ears that I should be the one to die. But why would you want to do that? Hmm...

If we lynch a volunteer, we're guaranteed to lose an innocent, therefore lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio. I bet they'd laugh in glee.

We're going to be lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio even if we don't follow my plan (odds are).

There may be a "statistical disadvantage" as Phantom calls it, but to my mind, a chance is still a chance.

So you are willing to do something despite a statistical disadvantage? That doesn't sound too smart.

On one hand, we definitely won't lose one of our important villagers, such as a seer or a guardian during the day

Yes, that is the plan's strong point.

but at Night, anything can happen

That is always the case, plan or no plan, so that doesn't really matter.

Also, if the seer is killed during the night, all we will have to do is look back at his/her posts to see what hints were given and we will at least have a bit of guidance.

[the phantom]

I was going to hold my tongue on this for a bit because of the temporary truce Fea and I have, but I feel the need to say it after Azalia's comments.

WHY IN THE WORLD would you ask someone why they aren't volunteering? It's a stupid thing to do, because obviously the best reason not to volunteer would be if you are a gifted villager, which is something you certainly do not want to admit to being. There is not an answer to that question that could possibly have a positive effect on the village, but it could certainly have a negative one.

If I would have answered "Well, um, because I just really think there are better choices than me", then the obvious implication would be that I was a gifted villager and the werewolves would kill me the following night.

Fortunately when I wrote up my requirements for volunteering I included the notion that the best volunteers would be inactive ones. Sure, it is a good thought in and of itself, but the primary reason I included it was to provide a reasonable answer to the question "Why aren't you volunteering?" in case the question was asked (directed at me or anyone else).

You see, I figured that question would be asked by someone before it was ever asked, and I also thought that asking the question might be a sign of a werewolf.

To my mind, Fea and Azalia asking why I haven't volunteered is quite suspicious. It's almost as if they are hoping to trick me into outing myself as a gifted villager.

Why else would you ask?

An innocent would know to hold his/her tongue so as not to risk exposing a gifted villager.

[Lalaith]

Good evening fellow villagers. I'm sorry not to have joined in the discussion before, but even on such a terrible and tragic day as this, my first duty was to my babes who were fretful and needed tending. Now they are all sleeping soundly and I can share my thoughts with you all.
I agree that on this first day, we will almost certainly be lynching at random. But to knowingly kill an innocent - surely not. Is it not our humanity that seperates us from the werewolves? If we sink to their level in order to defeat them, have they not won, anyway?
I note my name has cropped up as being under suspicion. I accept that with the random element of today's vote, any one us could end up dead at the hands of the rest and that one may be myself: there is little that any of us can say to each other at this stage to convince of our innocence.
I wondered what lay behind the hints of the phantom? I asked him to beware, because I felt he was leading us to infer that he was a 'gifted' villager, and thus picked up by the werewolves as their next victim. But I see that while I was composing my thoughts he has pre-empted this observation.

[Lalaith]

We know this:
There are three working together towards a common purpose. They know who they are and who the enemy is.
There are two also working together towards a common purpose. They know who they are, but they don't know who the enemy is.
There is one person on his own, who now knows if one other person is a friend or an enemy.
There are the rest - eleven - blundering around in the dark, knowing our own innocence but no-one else's.

Can anyone trace any threads of common purpose from the posts so far?

[littlemanpoet]

I've washed my hands after supper.

Evidence. Evidence. Evidence. Yes, Eomer, it was slim evidence at best, but evidence is about all we really will have to go on, besides luck or a plan (if enough people are willing to follow it). You certainly do seem to come across as one of the innocents, but wouldn't that be what we should expect out of a smart werewolf? Not saying that you are, but not saying that you aren't.

Getting back to the phantom's plan. With the two day limit it makes a lot of sense to me, but there's just one little problem. Well, no, a big problem. Nobody's volunteering. I'm certainly not going to! I want to stay alive as long as I can! Who wouldn't? So like I said, it looks like a good plan except for that one glaring flaw.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by the phantom

To my mind, Fea and Azaelia asking why I haven't volunteered is quite suspicious. It's almost as if they are hoping to trick me into outing myself as a gifted villager.

Why else would you ask?

An innocent would know to hold his/her tongue so as not to risk exposing a gifted villager.

I was not asking you to volunteer seriously...I just had noticed that you were arguing particularly strongly without seeming ready to support your plan fully yourself. I'm not trying to frame you up. I'm not trying to get you lynched. It's just a fact that no one wants to die.

I am not working with Fea or trying to trick you into admitting that you are a gifted villager, Phantom...I don't even think that you are, just at this stage. It's hard to know anything about anyone.

As to another thing you said about me going with a statistical disadvantage not being logical... As I've said before, I think that completely having no chance of lynching a werewolf while at the same time having the certainty of killing an innocent villager is just not that great a situation. Either way we choose, we're at a disadvantage.

Also, I just don't think it particularly realistic that any villager, innocent or otherwise, is going to volunteer to die on the first Day. I certainly haven't seen anyone raising their hands.

And you seem to be suspicious of me. If I was a wolf, I'd be keeping my head down and just watching with glee as you lynch an innocent villager without any help from me. Obviously, that's not what I'm doing.

I simply see a small chance of catching a werewolf as being better than no chance at all, in spite of the risks. That's just my opinion. Perhaps we'll have to agree to disagree, since we're basically saying the same arguments over and over.

[Saurreg]

Tis a sad day here in Storyland. But well water must be drawn, chickens fed, cows milked and foxes skinned; life must go on.

Right, on with the show.

I am surprised that our resident seadog Eomer has already set his sights on not one but two fellow villagers without any rational explanation at all and when LMP pointed this out, he quickly threw in FN as another suspect. Was he drunk when he made those statements? Or does he know something that we do not? I do not know but I shall be keeping my eyes wide open.

The Phantom must be commended for trying to come out with a sensible plan to safeguard the wider interests of the village. Note that I said "trying" 'cuz in this ole trapper's eyes, that hare-brained scheme hasn't got any darned legs to stand on - much like those funny-looking raccoons I processed last week. Selfless morality is lacking in these parts and if we go back the good ole tradition of death by mob; at least we stand a chance (no matter how slender) of hanging a darn man-wolf.

Therefore I submit that we stick to the lynching. Dead wolf on the scaffold and a major contribution to the study of their darned kind (especially whether or not they remain furry after death). What's there not to like? But nevertheless The Phantom deserves alittle praise for his idea. I'd give him a complimentary gold star if I had one but I don't. Then again, I've never had much gold on me.