Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[littlemanpoet]

I was going to say much that Saurreg has already covered in his first post of TODAY. There is, however, one thing he is wrong about:

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Lalaith I could still be wrong about...

Lalaith was someone about whom our late Seer was not sure, but hoped he was.

I wish that Ang had not been quite so "Feanorian" in his response to your "ineffectual seer" post, because Hookbill's doom was already pretty much assured. So I bemoan the fact that he said he'd kill himself if Hookie was innocent, because that really left no room for doubt that he knew he'd be dead today anyway by being so blunt about it. So Hookie was going to get lynched anyway, but we could have had our Seer still undercover and available to dream of the werewolf on this latest night. For all we know, he DID dream of the werewolf, but cannot tell us for obvious reasons. So a bit of mercurial self-defense has let the werewolf slip our notice yet again.

Granted, Saurreg, that if Ang had not been so blunt, you might have been after his hide and we might have had a double lynching of both seer and werewolf, but the odds of that were, I don't know, something like 6 to 1.

So now we must take a stab at who the last werewolf is. I noticed this from Saurreg:

If we go by my dual theory of werewolf voting behaviour, I'd say the last wolf voted for Hookbill to save its own skin. Look for the votes there. Signs such as sudden reversals in belief, voting patterns or just plain too-good-to-be-true posts explaining the rationale behind the votes may yield alot.

As you noted in a later post, a sudden voting reversal could be seen in either light. Quite right. If I were the werewolf, and I kind of knew that Hookbill was going to get lynched, I'd have switched my vote the first opportunity I saw. But I'm not the werewolf, and I was, as I said before, responding to the seer's clear indication.

By the way, the cursed villager may not still walk among us. If the cursed villager is lynched, she or he is dead. Only if a werewolf kills the cv, does the cv become a werewolf.

I believe my posting history bears out that I have been suspicious of Evisse myself. Of course, Feanor's mercurial play continues to leave me unsettled as well.

[Lalaith]

Most excellently played, gallant Anguirel. You have not died in vain.

At least his death has cleared up what has been worrying me for days, that he might be werewolf. I knew (obviously) that I was innocent, so as soon as Anguirel started defending me, I realised the only way he could know, was because he was either the Seer or a werewolf.
If he was a werewolf, he was befriending me in order to gain credibility for himself, when I was killed and my innocence proven.
I was worried, you see, by his and Esgal's absence on the first day, and drew a possible link between this and the failure of anyone to defend Esgal when phantom nominated her. To add to this theory there was the death of Azaelia on the first night: she was the first on the list, alphabetically, *after* Anguirel. Neither Esgal nor Anguirel were there that first night, so left to his own devices, the lone wolf, especially if he were a nervous newbie, might simply have gone for the first one on the list.
Anyway, enough of this now-redundant theory, Anguirel has proved to be honest, wise and true and now we must honour his memory by catching the last werewolf.

We are now thanks to Anguirel, fortunate enough to have three proven innocents: Saurreg, Celuien and myself, which puts the villagers in a very strong position. I know some of you have pointed out that Anguirel didn't unequivocally back me in his last post. To this I would reply that I think he was trying to leave a bit of doubt, for a slim chance of being left uneaten last night.
I don't think he would have risked voting for Nilp to save me, instead of Hookbill who he knew for sure was a wolf, if he hadn't been sure I was innocent.

I agree that we need to do some mass lynching in order to win, and I'll co-operate with Saurreg on this. But I'm sorry to do it because innocents will die and I quite understand that villagers who have got this far want to survive until the end.

[Lalaith]

Oh but Saurreg, I'm not entirely sure who to lynch, as we have a day I think we should discuss the possibilities. I want to go through the evidence first so that we pick wisely.
It would be a total bummer if, despite a double lynching, we failed to get the wolf and he then was lucky enought to land himself a recruit overnight. That way we would be down to 3 villagers and two wolves, not a good place to be.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Of course, Feanor's mercurial play continues to leave me unsettled as well.

I am unsettling. I am mysterious. I do things for reasons that I am unlikely and/or unwilling to explain. You think I'm going to stop acting that way just to please you? Perhaps if you all read a bit closer to what people have been saying, you wouldn't be so confused by what I'm saying.

Originally Posted by Myself

There's also my list. Some members I could cross out because Ang cleared them officially. Others, I crossed out because I cleared them personally.

Originally Posted by Evisse

Could you elaborate on that?

*facepalm*

Sure, why not. Innocents are underlined.

Celuien: cleared by Anguirel with no room for doubt.

Fea: duh.

Firefoot: She backed me in the very beginning, saying that intentionally killing innocents (tp's campaign) was a bad idea. What kind of wolf campaigns against killing innocents? Also, although he left room for doubt because he wasn't certain, Footie was very low on Ang's suspect list. He didn't clear her exactly, but he wasn't worried about her, and niether am I.

Lalaith: been allied with our Seer from the beginning. That can't be taken for granted. Yesterday I accused her on faulty evidence, but once it was corrected, I saw how slip-shod that particular theory was and dropped it. I've actually got a working theory that she's our Hunter, which is part of why I don't want to kill her. She'd take someone else out with her, and I'm not sure who that person would be. If she planned on taking out, say... LMP... I'd say "Sure, let's kill her. We might be wrong and she could be the wolf and not a hunter, but if she is the hunter, she takes out one of my biggest suspects." But since I'm pretty sure she's innocent, and I'm not nearly so sure if she's Gifted, I'm not even going to bother offering up the idea of slaying her.

Saurreg: inarguably our other Sherriff. If anybody disagrees on that theory, they've yet to mention it.

LMP: I latently suspected him at the beginning, and then decided against it. Then my framing went awry when he was the only one of my suspects not to die and be proven innocent. Which led me to believe there might have been a reason that he wasn't dying... such as the wolves don't kill their own. When everyone ignored this, I screamed at people until they paid attention. Once the idea had been properly addressed, I dropped it. Right now, I don't think he's guilty, but that doesn't mean I don't think we should kill him... just to be on the safe side.

Evisse: the only one of us to have seemingly no clue that Ang was the Seer. The rest of us were like "Oh, hey... we found the Seer. Let's all listen to his inarguable defenses and accusations of people." And many of our Seer's comments were saying "Evisse is sneaky" or "has anyone else been worried about Evisse?".

Is that better?

[Lalaith]

Whoever the Hunter is, I think we should be glad we still have him or her.

Feanor, I think that Anguirel's comments about Evisse were based on his deductions as a player rather than his dreams as a seer. If he had really dreamt of the third wolf he would have gone after them like a rat up a drain, particularly as he knew he was almost certainly going to die last night.

Btw, yesterday I said I thought you (Feanor) were innocent, purely based on your voting on the first day. I do however now qualify this statement, as I subsequently realised that this deduction was based on someone being a rational player rather than someone being bonkers as conkers. And I mean that in the nicest way - bonkers is as good a strategy as any, frankly.

[Evisse the Blue]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Is that better?

Slightly.
You still haven't offered anything beyond personal opinions and most of all uncertainties of your own, which hardly count as evidence.
Either you're a wolf, Fea, or an innocent who seems bent on playing to her own tune, which seems rather to harm villagers, instead of helping them.

Evisse: the only one of us to have seemingly no clue that Ang was the Seer. Let's all listen to his inarguable defenses and accusations of people." And many of our Seer's comments were saying "Evisse is sneaky" or "has anyone else been worried about Evisse?".

Are you serious about this? *laughs in spite of herself*
And you think if I were a werewolf I'd be so blatantly suicidal to actually come out and say it? You forget the advantage werewolves have over villagers. If I were a werewolf myself I'd have been the first to know he's the Seer, based on his accusation of Hookbill. So at that moment saying 'Hey I distrust Anguirel even if the rest of you don't' wouldn't be the very smart move for the remaining werewolf. It would be the very opposite of sneaky. So make up your mind, am I dumb or sneaky?

I actually want to point this out, if you people are going to go by the Seer's last words, both when it comes to me or to the others, be careful. The Seer can base his suspicions on Dreams or on hunches, analyses, like the rest of us. I believe his last words were merely personal beliefs, not backed by Dreams. Except for Saurreg, who was cleared beyond any doubt.

[Lalaith]

So at that moment saying 'Hey I distrust Anguirel even if the rest of you don't' wouldn't be the very smart move for the remaining werewolf.

well actually it would, because by his identifying of Hookbill, Anguirel could also have been a wolf, playing a desperate game of survival.
(Similarly, the real werewolf, playing a desperate game, could have left Anguirel alive last night. Had Anguirel still been here this morning, some of us would have thought, hey, he's more or less blatantly said he's the Seer, how come the wolf didn't eat him? Maybe he is the wolf after all?)

[Firefoot]

I agree with what Fea said in post 375. My real suspicion against Evisse right now is complete lack of suspicion on the part of anyone else. I am about 95% sure that she is our wolf.

I am not particularly for the idea of a double lynching (mostly because I am still fairly confident that lmp is innocent). I can see the logic of doing so, though, so if everyone else is for it, I guess I'm in.

I do think that we should be taking Ang's last words with a grain of salt: the only two that he absolutely cleared are Celuien and Saurreg. Beyond that, his speculations are about as trustworthy as any of ours. While I am inclined to accept Lalaith's innocence, we cannot absolutely discount her.

The other thing is, Evisse, you have been launching a "don't lynch me, don't lynch me!" campaign, but you have not told us who you think should be lynched and why...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Betcha it's me.

Because I'm spear-heading the kill-Evisse campaign. But that's not what she'll say. It's probably have something to do with me being fickle, never being right, and being a constant confusion.

[Evisse the Blue]

The other thing is, Evisse, you have been launching a "don't lynch me, don't lynch me!" campaign, but you have not told us who you think should be lynched and why...

I am not starting an 'don't lynch me campaign'. Here's what I said in my first post today:

I won't make too much of a fuss to stop it. I realize I have it coming for being so wrong in my remarks about Anguirel. And even if an innocent is lynched today, the villagers still have the numerical advantage needed to win, if they use what evidence they have wisely.

I started interfering (and who can blame me for staying out of a debate? surely not the rest of you, people) when Saurreg suggested to have more than one lynching. I did not offer any judgements because I cannot guarantee you I'm gonna reach a logical conclusion. I have made one big mistake so far not recognizing the Seer and you'll understand that I don't want to make such a mistake again when the village is so close of getting rid of werewolves once and for all.
I am however at the moment most suspicious of Feanor (based on the same defensive reaction that Anguirel used against me, so if you're gonna buy that as being sound, you have no reason to doubt mine) and Lalaith for reasons stated many times before (and not only by me).

Betcha it's me.
Because I'm spear-heading the kill-Evisse campaign. But that's not what she'll say. It's probably have something to do with me being fickle, never being right, and being a constant confusion.

And would I not be completely right in saying so?
But I have a feeling you won't be leading the campaign against me for long. As soon as the votes for me gather, you'll start picking on someone else. And this is because you'll realize you're wrong, and you hate people telling you that you're wrong.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I know some of you have pointed out that Anguirel didn't unequivocally back me in his last post. To this I would reply that I think he was trying to leave a bit of doubt, for a slim chance of being left uneaten last night.

This is a far wilder conjecture than mine, and does nothing to remove suspicion from you, Lalaith. The seer had made himself baldly, blatantly obvious to everybody but Evisse. All it does is to show that you are trying to use his quoted doubts about you as some sort of proof of innocence through a leap of logic only a person scrambling for a defense would try. It doesn't work that way; sorry m'dear. I'm getting closer to voting for you, so you had better try again.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

... by his identifying of Hookbill, Anguirel could also have been a wolf, playing a desperate game of survival.
(Similarly, the real werewolf, playing a desperate game, could have left Anguirel alive last night. Had Anguirel still been here this morning, some of us would have thought, hey, he's more or less blatantly said he's the Seer, how come the wolf didn't eat him? Maybe he is the wolf after all?)

And let's imagine that whoever the werewolf is, had left Anguirel, the known seer, alive last night, and that said werewolf decided to get into a desperate game of "I'm the seer and s/he's the werewolf!" "No, I'm the seer and s/he's the werewolf!" Thrown into confusion, the village would be left with no recourse but to lynch them both, agreeing on a tie. Whoever the werewolf is, would see this as certain doom and avoid it.

[Lalaith]

I'm getting closer to voting for you,

Of course you are. And we both know why.

[Firefoot]

Well, I was seriously ready to vote for Evisse until she said this:

No, I'm not a gifted villager.

A true werewolf would have left this possibiltiy open: anything to stay alive. This would be an absurd thing for a werewolf to say. So now I'm going to have to look at the rest of you a little more closely...

Excluding those not explicitly cleared by our Seer (and myself), there are:

Fea
Lalaith
LMP

Of these three, I am most inclined to vote for Lalaith. I had been uneasy about her, and then laid off it. However, I do not think that LMP is a wolf, and if Fea is, then she is a pretty dang good bluffer. I don't think Fea is a wolf either, just an emotive innocent. That leaves Lalaith. Hm.

I'll have to think about this some more, but Evisse may not be getting my vote after all.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Btw, yesterday I said I thought you (Feanor) were innocent, purely based on your voting on the first day. I do however now qualify this statement, as I subsequently realised that this deduction was based on someone being a rational player rather than someone being bonkers as conkers. And I mean that in the nicest way - bonkers is as good a strategy as any, frankly.

Oh goodness... I haven't laughed that hard since... Well, not since Sunday night. But before that... it hadn't been since Friday.... however before that... Well... it's been a happy week. But I just laughed really hard. I'm glad to hear you like my strategy. I've had it planned out from the very beginning, you know.

Either you're a wolf, Fea, or an innocent who seems bent on playing to her own tune, which seems rather to harm villagers, instead of helping them.

Dum dum diddly diddly dum di-dum. I can't very well dance to anyone else's tune, since I don't wholly trust anyone else, whereas I know that I've got the best of intentions. Or at least I did. I beginning to second guess them now, and change them to fit my mood.

No... I'm going to stop short right here and be serious for a minute. Pay close attention, because it won't last long, and I'm soon to go back to playing games to watch reactions.

Anguirel did not trust Evisse.

Originally Posted by Ang

And is Evisse's distinct refusal to see the wood for the trees as suspicious as it seems to me? I suspected her a while back...

Originally Posted by Ang

Naturally enough, my eye now defensively lingers on Evisse again.

I'd come up with more quotes, but there are many, and I don't feel like hitting copy/paste that many times. I trust Ang's judgement even if it's not backed up by a Dream, because he is not as quick to accuse as I am. I observe by way of messing with people's heads and seeing the outcome. He asks questions and reserves his comments until after he's thought for awhile. He wouldn't randomly accuse, much unlike me. As I've said before... take out Evisse and if I'm wrong, so be it. Judge me in whatever way seems fair to you, but before you do it, think hard and publicly on who you all suspect.