Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[Lalaith]

I forgot to mention, (although I'm sure you've worked it out) that my three-way-lynching plan is something of a gamble.
If neither lmp or Evisse turn out to be the wolf, that's three of us gone, and the wolf kills someone else tonight. Almost certainly either Saurreg or Celuien, one of the proven innocents.
So the villagers will be down to three tomorrow, and two of you are going to HAVE to get it right.
However, I think the odds are still ok and so Saurreg I still think my plan holds good.

[Lalaith]

I've got to go now, and won't be back until just before voting deadline, so I'll just add a final plea to Evisse and Saurreg.
Evisse, whether you vote for me or not, you're almost certainly going to die anyway. If you vote for lmp, we will know you are innocent, and you will have the consolation of dying alongside me, another innocent, and helping to save the village.
Here's how I hope things will pan out:
if none of us three who die today is a werewolf or a hunter, that leaves Saurreg, Celuien, Firefoot and Feanor. Who will the wolf kill? The obvious choice is Saurreg, but a bold and rash wolf might kill one of the other two, even though he stands a 50:50 chance of killing the hunter, because he might still find the cursed villager.
But whatever happens what we should be left with tomorrow is three villagers of which at least one proven innocent. So that should swing it for us.
Go on, Evisse and Saurreg, please do it. You know it makes sense.
Oh, and if the hunter is killed, I *really* hope he makes the right choice. That is another way we could still mess up.

[Evisse the Blue]

Please convince me to vote for lmp, because I was gonna vote for Fea. So far her suspect list has consisted only of innocents, (sort of like mine) and I doubt she's in a position to help the village, even if she's not a werewolf, which would be the logical assumption, if the person in question was not Fea.

A three way lynching is a too risky thing to do, in my opinion. It's a gamble indeed, and it denies us the only advantage which we had: bigger numbers.

[Lalaith]

Evisse, the only way you voting for Feanor would work is if both Saurreg and myself also voted for her and I'm just not sure.
I know that killing 3 of us tonight sounds a bit extreme, but I think it will work.
I would like you or Saurreg to read over my conclusions about how things will pan out: if all 3 of us are innocent, and how we would almost certainly still win. If you can see any glaring errors in my logic, please point them out, I may have overlooked something obvious.
What happens in the possible other scenarios, given the current voting?
1. Lalaith, an innocent, dies alone. The werewolf kills someone ( probably, unless he is very bold, one of the two known innocents) in the night, then you are five, of which only one is a known innocent.
2. Evisse dies alone. If she is an innocent, the same scenario as 1.
3. Feanor dies alone. Ditto.

EDIT: I won't be back for a while now. Talk it over.

[Lalaith]

*pant* just back for a final point:
The good thing about speeding up the process with more lynchings is because we thus minimise the number of kills the wolf can make. Because whoever we the villagers lynch, we can't turn a cursed villager into a werewolf and we won't lynch a known innocent (Saurreg, Celuien). We need as many known innocents alive for the final vote as possible.

[Evisse the Blue]

Yes I think I see an error in your logic: you seem very sure the werewolf will try to kill the cursed villager. But it's more than likely the cursed villager is already dead among all those lynchings of innocents, as has already been suggested. Either way, the risk is too big for her/him and (s)he risks too much to kill the Hunter who may yet have the chance to save the village. No, the remaining werewolf knows (s)he stands a much bigger chance if he kills Saurreg and leaves for tomorrow three villagers suspicious of each other. We all know how innocents can accuse innocents, right? As far as I can see, this last wolf is very cunning and relatively sure of her/his victory. We haven't even made him/her sweat. I was half expecting today to see someone so obviously desperate, that it would be a dead giveaway. But maybe we didn't give him/her cause for desperation yet. He/She may be far from the list of suspects even.

I am surprised that my declaration that I wasn't gifted convinced Firefoot of me being innocent. Since the only remaining gifted is the Hunter, and (s)he is more useful to us dead than alive...

Also Celuien's hasty post was not entirely consistent with her analytical posts so far...

I need a little time to think. I'll cast my vote soon.

[Evisse the Blue]

Lalaith, why didn't you cast your vote for lmp already since you clearly suspect him the most? Why wait until the very end of the voting to do that? Even if I choose to vote for you, Saurreg could come along and make this a tie like he intended from the beginning, so the both of us will die anyway. You give me no great reason to trust you by holding out like that. And now I have the burden of deciding if this will be a triple tie or not. As I said, I am basically against the idea because the villagers will stop having the numerical advantage over the wolves. I don't think the odds of still having the cursed villager among us are so high that we need to lynch half of the population in one day.

I think I will give up my democratic right to vote. Sorry. I do not believe in lmp's guilt almost at all. If he's a wolf, then I'll admit I'm dumb and that my part is in the kitchen. I'd vote for another person, which would either be Feanor or Firefoot, but I'm pretty sure the two remaining to vote won't follow up on that, so it would be a wasted vote. So that makes it up to you, Saurreg and Lalaith, to decide this day's outcome.

Needless to point it out to the rest of you - if Lalaith chooses to save herself, despite the fact that she proposed as many lynchings as possible today, you need to watch her carefully tomorrow.

[Lalaith]

Evisse:
I have to wait to vote for littlemanpoet, because I need to see what Saurreg and you agree to. That is the only reason I'm waiting, believe me.
And no, I am NOT saying the wolf is more likely to go for the cursed villager. I said that he was more likely to try for Saurreg.
And why are you casting doubt on Celuien? Whatever she does, she is categorically to be trusted, the seer said so. There will not be three villagers suspicious of each other tomorrow, as the wolf cannot kill both Celuien and Saurreg tonight. There will still remain one trusted villager.
Where is Saurreg, for heavens sakes? What does he think? Saurreg and I could still pull off my plan, unless Evisse is the wolf and will step in at the last minute to vote for me. Even though everyone will then realise she is the wolf, she might be gambling desperately that she will kill the cursed villager tonight and so outnumber us tomorrow morning. Its her only hope of survival, now.
I will re-state my case against lmp. It was because the reasons he gave for suspecting me were mostly dishonest smears. Eg

typical failure to account for cross posting, mathematics, and other such mis-steps

This just isn't true. I may have made mistakes, but I have accounted for them openly and honestly, perhaps more than any other villager. He could, if he really suspected me, have accused me of doing this as a double-bluff, but to try to rewrite history is just plain dodgy.
Also lmp doesn't address the issue of Anguirel voting for Nilp to save me, which I think was a fairly strong point in my favour.
Anyway, at the moment I actually suspect Evisse as much as Lmp so I still think they should both die and I would still be prepared to die myself to make this happen. But I'm not sacrificing myself just for Evisse who would probably die anyway.
Saurreg?

[littlemanpoet]

Lalaith, your latest pleas have convinced me of your innocence. I'm sorry I voted for you. Maybe it would be best to lynch three of us after all, so that we do have known innocents outnumbering the remaining werewolf. So if lynching me helps the village, go for it.