Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Lhunardawen · 07-01-2005, 05:29 AM

At long last! The villagers have won! Congratulations!

Your play was excellent, lmp. After hearing the finale spoiler from my brother, I read this:

Quote:

Lalaith, your latest pleas have convinced me of your innocence. I'm sorry I voted for you. Maybe it would be best to lynch three of us after all, so that we do have known innocents outnumbering the remaining werewolf. So if lynching me helps the village, go for it.

and I just tumbled over in laughter. You would make a good drama king.

And a very great job moderating, tgwbs. That was some way to get rid of my annoyingly suspicious brother.

Awesome game, everyone!

Feanor of the Peredhil · 07-01-2005, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Thank you. Sorry about almost voting for you. Until an hour ago I was pretty sure you were the last werewolf, and doing an excellent job of avoiding suspicion. Boy, was I wrong.

No worries... Until not long ago, I think a lot of people were convinced I was the last werewolf. Heck, occasionally I convinced myself that I was.

Gotta think like a wolf to catch one, and all that. About that avoiding suspicion... I really have no clue how I managed that one, since I pointed out everyone (unless they died too early for it).

Quote:

Fea I have to say I'm surprised you weren't lynched simply for insulting everyone in the game!

I didn't get everyone, did I? Well... maybe... LMP is too polite, it makes me want to kill him in his sleep; the phantom is condescending and infuriating; Evisse is either a wolf or blind; Yeah... maybe I did. Sorry about that.

littlemanpoet · 07-01-2005, 08:56 AM

Feanor, there's no way I would have killed you. You drew suspicion away from me. The only time you caused me concern was when your bouncing bow pointed briefly at me, at which point all I had to do was say what you wanted, and you bounced away again. I think that over all you caused confusion to the other villagers, which helped me. I think that a hunter makes a mistake by being a loudmouth and/or drawing attention to self, because that attention is bound to be suspicion, which means the werewolves will let the hunter live, thus eluding (if not eliminating) the risk of being killed during the kill.

Let's say I had voted for Evisse instead of Lalaith (thinking out loud). The votes would have been Feanor, Celuein, LMP, and probably Firefoot (who thought I was innocent), enough to lynch her. So Evisse is lynched, and everybody learns that she is an ungifted villager.

My choices for kill, having barely escaped lynching myself, most likely, are either a known innocent because it's wise to get rid of someone against whom there is no suspicion, as well as safe to get rid of someone you're sure is not the hunter. That means Saurreg, or maybe Celuien. On the other hand, there was still the (desperate) hope of getting the cursed villager. So we scratch Feanor because she's too suspicious, and we scratch Firefoot because she's unlikely to vote for my lynching. That leaves Lalaith, about whom some people are still suspicious, especially if I don't screw up and blow my wad at her. So I would have to take out Saurreg as the safest and wisest choice.

That leaves: Feanor, Celuein, Firefoot, Lalaith, and LMP. Care to hypothesize what would have happened then?

Firefoot · 07-01-2005, 09:10 AM

Well, I don't think my vote would have been cast for Evisse, as she had me quite convinced toward the end of the day that she was innocent. (I don't know that I ever thought she was guilty, except I didn't think anyone else seemed guilty either.

) I don't know if that would have changed the result or not.

Anyway, in this potential situation, I would hazard a guess that Lalaith would be the next to go. I would not have voted for Celuien (proven innocent), Feanor (I was figuring she was gifted by then), or LMP (who I figured was innocent). So let's say Lalaith dies. That night, LMP kills someone else - a choice of Fea, myself, or Celuien. I will guess that Celuien, as a proven innocent, probably goes. I would vote for LMP over Fea, and I don't see any reason why Fea wouldn't vote for LMP.

So there's my hypothesis; it would end in a villager victory anyway though it would seem that only Fea and myself are left to populate the village - not much of a village, anymore.

Lalaith · 07-01-2005, 09:27 AM

After I woke up and saw that I'd got two votes, my first instinct, as a werewolf newbie, was obviously to argue/vote to save myself. But then I started pondering exactly the above scenarios and their possible outcome, and then I realised that the most important thing was that the werewolf only made one more kill at the very most.
I'd assumed that as Saurreg took me as an innocent everyone else would too, but I realised that if I wasn't trusted, I was completely expendable. The more unknown quantities we lynched that day the better.
Btw lmp, I also guessed you were the werewolf because you were the only one who replied to my little remark about 'could the werewolf not have left the Seer alive as a tactic.'
I put that remark in on purpose, because I figured the poor wolf would be lonely not having anyone to PM with, and wouldn't be able to resist the temptation to talk about tactics...

mormegil · 07-01-2005, 09:31 AM

Well TGWBS and I spoke on this situation near the end and how you could possibly win. It was difficult because Feanor was choosing you to kill if she were to die. So if she had changed her mind then you could of had a chance, if she didn't your best outcome was a draw. I felt you were on the right track LMP by attempting to cast suspicion on Lailath while others were working Evisse over for you. If only one had been lynched that day, you could have killed Saurreg like you said get the other (Evisse or Lalaith) lynched the next day and kill of Celuein at night. But then there's the uphill battle of casting suspicion on Firefoot during the day, or casting some suspicion on Firefoot and enought on Feanor so that you lynch Feanor and she decides to kill Firefoot when she dies.

All in all it was a long shot at best and with so many known innocents I thought it near impossible for you to win at that stage but we still had hoped that maybe you would pull it off. Actually TGWBS wanted a draw so at the end he could put.

Moderator Wins!

Saurreg · 07-01-2005, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Feanor, So I would have to take out Saurreg as the safest and wisest choice.

Then I'm very glad that I voted for you and that Lalaith supported me. Had I taken heed of Feanor's words, victory would not have been this sweet.

Lalaith · 07-01-2005, 10:28 AM

I was very glad when I saw you'd decided to vote later, Saurreg. Very wise decision.

Saurreg · 07-01-2005, 10:40 AM

Thank you my dear. Very gracious of you.

Now what if I didn't vote? I think the following is most likely;

1. LMP would have me killed in the night as he had stated.

2. Feanor would be the main suspect the next day due to a quasi-vow, most probably would be lynched.

3. She takes along LMP during the execution.

So it would still be a villagers' victory except neither I nor Feanor would still be alive.

littlemanpoet · 07-01-2005, 10:41 AM

I was already convinced that the game was out of my reach the Day before I took out Anguirel: too many known innocents.

I think you guys'll get a kick out of our Third and Fourth Night PMs. I'll post them up when I get home.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 07-01-2005, 10:54 AM

These signatures are just brilliant. What a lovely close-knit community we made!

07-01-2005, 09:27 AM	#5
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	After I woke up and saw that I'd got two votes, my first instinct, as a werewolf newbie, was obviously to argue/vote to save myself. But then I started pondering exactly the above scenarios and their possible outcome, and then I realised that the most important thing was that the werewolf only made one more kill at the very most. I'd assumed that as Saurreg took me as an innocent everyone else would too, but I realised that if I wasn't trusted, I was completely expendable. The more unknown quantities we lynched that day the better. Btw lmp, I also guessed you were the werewolf because you were the only one who replied to my little remark about 'could the werewolf not have left the Seer alive as a tactic.' I put that remark in on purpose, because I figured the poor wolf would be lonely not having anyone to PM with, and wouldn't be able to resist the temptation to talk about tactics... __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling

07-01-2005, 09:31 AM	#6
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	Well TGWBS and I spoke on this situation near the end and how you could possibly win. It was difficult because Feanor was choosing you to kill if she were to die. So if she had changed her mind then you could of had a chance, if she didn't your best outcome was a draw. I felt you were on the right track LMP by attempting to cast suspicion on Lailath while others were working Evisse over for you. If only one had been lynched that day, you could have killed Saurreg like you said get the other (Evisse or Lalaith) lynched the next day and kill of Celuein at night. But then there's the uphill battle of casting suspicion on Firefoot during the day, or casting some suspicion on Firefoot and enought on Feanor so that you lynch Feanor and she decides to kill Firefoot when she dies. All in all it was a long shot at best and with so many known innocents I thought it near impossible for you to win at that stage but we still had hoped that maybe you would pull it off. Actually TGWBS wanted a draw so at the end he could put. Moderator Wins! __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

07-01-2005, 10:28 AM	#8
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	I was very glad when I saw you'd decided to vote later, Saurreg. Very wise decision. __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling

07-01-2005, 10:40 AM	#9
Saurreg Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: In self imposed exile... Posts: 465	Thank you my dear. Very gracious of you. Now what if I didn't vote? I think the following is most likely; 1. LMP would have me killed in the night as he had stated. 2. Feanor would be the main suspect the next day due to a quasi-vow, most probably would be lynched. 3. She takes along LMP during the execution. So it would still be a villagers' victory except neither I nor Feanor would still be alive. __________________ "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. " ~Voltaire

07-01-2005, 10:54 AM	#11
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	These signatures are just brilliant. What a lovely close-knit community we made! __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

07-01-2005, 08:56 AM	#3
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	Feanor, there's no way I would have killed you. You drew suspicion away from me. The only time you caused me concern was when your bouncing bow pointed briefly at me, at which point all I had to do was say what you wanted, and you bounced away again. I think that over all you caused confusion to the other villagers, which helped me. I think that a hunter makes a mistake by being a loudmouth and/or drawing attention to self, because that attention is bound to be suspicion, which means the werewolves will let the hunter live, thus eluding (if not eliminating) the risk of being killed during the kill. Let's say I had voted for Evisse instead of Lalaith (thinking out loud). The votes would have been Feanor, Celuein, LMP, and probably Firefoot (who thought I was innocent), enough to lynch her. So Evisse is lynched, and everybody learns that she is an ungifted villager. My choices for kill, having barely escaped lynching myself, most likely, are either a known innocent because it's wise to get rid of someone against whom there is no suspicion, as well as safe to get rid of someone you're sure is not the hunter. That means Saurreg, or maybe Celuien. On the other hand, there was still the (desperate) hope of getting the cursed villager. So we scratch Feanor because she's too suspicious, and we scratch Firefoot because she's unlikely to vote for my lynching. That leaves Lalaith, about whom some people are still suspicious, especially if I don't screw up and blow my wad at her. So I would have to take out Saurreg as the safest and wisest choice. That leaves: Feanor, Celuein, Firefoot, Lalaith, and LMP. Care to hypothesize what would have happened then?

07-01-2005, 09:10 AM	#4
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	Well, I don't think my vote would have been cast for Evisse, as she had me quite convinced toward the end of the day that she was innocent. (I don't know that I ever thought she was guilty, except I didn't think anyone else seemed guilty either. ) I don't know if that would have changed the result or not. Anyway, in this potential situation, I would hazard a guess that Lalaith would be the next to go. I would not have voted for Celuien (proven innocent), Feanor (I was figuring she was gifted by then), or LMP (who I figured was innocent). So let's say Lalaith dies. That night, LMP kills someone else - a choice of Fea, myself, or Celuien. I will guess that Celuien, as a proven innocent, probably goes. I would vote for LMP over Fea, and I don't see any reason why Fea wouldn't vote for LMP. So there's my hypothesis; it would end in a villager victory anyway though it would seem that only Fea and myself are left to populate the village - not much of a village, anymore.

07-01-2005, 10:41 AM	#10
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	I was already convinced that the game was out of my reach the Day before I took out Anguirel: too many known innocents. I think you guys'll get a kick out of our Third and Fourth Night PMs. I'll post them up when I get home.

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