Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[littlemanpoet]

I was already convinced that the game was out of my reach the Day before I took out Anguirel: too many known innocents.

I think you guys'll get a kick out of our Third and Fourth Night PMs. I'll post them up when I get home.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

These signatures are just brilliant. What a lovely close-knit community we made!

[Anguirel]

Have a care, LMP; now I know it was you wot did me in, you're for it next time I'm a wolf or Hunter!

Oops, that was revealing.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Now what if I didn't vote? I think the following is most likely;

1. LMP would have me killed in the night as he had stated.

2. Feanor would be the main suspect the next day due to a quasi-vow, most probably would be lynched.

3. She takes along LMP during the execution.

Exactly. Which is why I kept italicizing "don't worry about LMP". I needed to know that Evisse was innocent or guilty, and I knew that since I had a definate way of killing LMP if I was wrong, that we needed to concentrate on the more difficult matter.

The tough part about the game is PMing the mod with your latest choice and wondering if he's laughing at you because you are so stuck on your wrong answer.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Hookbill

With Eomer out of the way, we can group up and strike out with a plan I have formulated.

I think a good many of the villagers are suspecting phantom, if he does not die tonight, they will do our dirty work for us. I suggest we kill someone different, Firefoot or Saurreg are my favourites for killings tonight. What do you think?

Originally Posted by Esgal

Do either one of you see that Eomer was basically the phantom's arch nemisis?? Now that he's "out of the way", the phantom will be inclined to turn his sights else where. That's why I didn't vote for him, (lotta good it did him, poor rapscallion). I also didn't vote for the phantom because I said I wouldn't, believe me I'm a very vengeful person but I chose not to because voting for him just because he voted for me would be silly and absurd.

We should keep the phantom alive for just one more night, and we should pick someone who voted for Eomer, to try and throw them off again. that may make them think why did they kill that person and not the phantom again, those wolves must really be hosers (sorry, Canadian slang).

That leaves us (excluding you two that voted for him), Saurreg, phantom, and dancing spawn of Ungoliant. I think we shouldn't kill the phantom tonight (to prove Eomer wrong), so perhaps Saurreg, I was actually going to vote for him, but I wanted to try and boost up someones elses votes so that Eomer may have been saved.

Or perhaps we should kill the phantom, and make them wonder he was so against Eomer and wolves killed him why? or leave him alive to possible get lynched the next day.

I'm sorry my thoughts are all muddled and there are a variety of wheels spinning in my head with various ideas.

What do you guys have to say, I have to go now, work and all that?

Originally Posted by Hookbill

Hum...

I'm still confident that the villagers will probably lynch him tomorrow. Do you not think we can take that chance? I don't think we should kill the phantom, not tonight anyway... yes he's getting dangerous, but if the villagers suspect him, they probably won't trust his thoughts... But if both of you are confident to get rid of him, I’ll say he goes, if you don't think we can take the chance.
I won't be able to say anything else as I have to sleep now, but, unless you come to another decision, take it as read that I said phantom dies.

Originally Posted by LMP

I appreciate your thoughts, but hear me out. The phantom continued to communicate suspicion of Esgal AFTER tgwbs's explanation of why she didn't post the first day. Why would he do that? Is it because he dreamed about her? The phantom is our biggest threat. Being innocent, why did he come up with a strategy to protect the gifted, and exclude himself from being a volunteer? Would it not be because he himself is gifted, and knew that he needed to stay alive? Is he not one of only two innocents so far who have voiced suspicion of one of us? So yes, Feanor is also a possibility for Seer, but she doesn't act like it. Meanwhile, the phantom has been both subtle and a leader.

If he had voted for Esgal this past day, I would have said to you that we have to get rid of him anyway even though that would draw everybody's suspicion to Esgal, and she would get lynched and revealed as a werewolf. I would ask Esgal to sacrifice herself so that all three of us could be winners because if the phantom is the Seer, he is doubly dangerous to us.

I am very relieved that the phantom did not vote for Esgal again, and I do wonder why. The only answer I can think of is that to vote for Esgal twice in a row while nobody else showed such suspicion, would make it obvious that he's the Seer, and he doesn't want to be that obvious. As far as I can tell, the signs point most strongly to the phantom being the Seer, not least because he did show some surprise that he did not get killed last night. I can imagine the phantom trying to throw the werewolves off the scent by being so vehement against Eomer.

I have no problem with Eomer being right about the phantom. If we get rid of the phantom tonight, and he is revealed as the Seer, I for one will not be suspected, nor will Hookbill. There will be some eyes looking in Esgal's direction on the strength of tp's previously voiced suspicion, but that could be argued away creatively, especially because the phantom has named a variety of possible suspects, Esgal being just one of them.

If the phantom is NOT the Seer, then the Seer is doing an excellent job of hiding - which increases the danger for us of course, but that's a chance I believe we need to take. Mind you, I have not read tgwbs's lynch post yet, and will pm again if I have to correct anything I've said here.

Originally Posted by Hookbill

Very well.

It was kind of a predictable move, I was more thinking along the lines of we could get rid of more people this way. But I have to agree; it is a little too risky to leave him roaming around. Let us get him out of the picture. I think we were lucky with the two for one deal today. We cannot count on that, nor can we take too many risks. Let phantom die then.

Originally Posted by Esgal

It seems clear that yes the phantom should go, he is getting more and more dangerous and he has a subtle cleverness that I can pick up on easily, however well he may try to hide it.

I have a few more thoughts, phantom could potentially be the Seer, phantom and Fea for all their disagreements could be the shirriffs. I would say more but I have to go. So I agree to kill the Phantom tonight.

So the phantom definitely achieved part of his objective. And if anybody takes a look, I told everybody within the game what the werewolves' strategy "probably" was: "silence the ones who are on the right track".

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by LMP

Well doesn't that just suck? Poor Esgal. I take it we may not include her in anymore communications, so for now it's just you and me, buddy. For my part, I'm glad I posted mild suspicions about Esgal and Lal, because that may throw people off your scent and onto Lal's ... maybe. Otherwise, you, my friend, are in danger. What do you intend to do about it? As far as I can tell, you're next in line for lynching, and possibly next in line tonight for being dreamed about, which, if we don't 'get the seer, increases the likelihood of your lynching.

I'm sorry I was wrong about the phantom, but I'm glad he's gone anyway, because he was too much on the right track. I'm sort of sorry he turned out to be a shirrif, because now everybody (with any logical ability) can see that Saurreg has to be innocent. That's one less person to suspect besides ourselves. Not good, so he may need to be on our hit list.

That said, I think I have a good idea who the seer is. I did a "find" on the word "seer" just to see if that showed anything. It took a while to check all (then) six pages and set aside many posts before I found these little gems:

from post # 12:

from post # 56:

This is looking more and more like the type of thing the Seer would say.

from post # 90:

post # 117 says little in terms of the Seer.

from post # 168:

How much you wanna bet she dreamed of him?

from the same post:

The meaning of this is hard to make out, but is she not suggesting that she is the Seer?

post # 200:

Now, she may not be the Seer, but I feel there's enough evidence to merit her death tonight. What do you think?

Originally Posted by Hookbill

Some good investigation there little poet. I agree. Plus I think she voted for me, didn't she? Even if not, I think you're right. If she's not the seer, then whoever is is keeping very quiet about the fact.

Plus, I don't think I'm going to survive the next vote, Firefoot is looking towards me and sharpening her knife by the looks of things. :|
Is it against the rules for you to vote for me? What I mean is, if it looks like I'm defiantly going down tomorrow they will find out I'm a w-w, so if you vote for me, no-one will suspect you. At least not for a long while. I doubt its against the rules, but at least put forward suspicion or something... but only if it defiantly looks like I'm going to have no neck by next night.

Originally Posted by LMP

No, my friend, I have the right to vote for whomever I choose, and did consider voting for one of you two today, except I didn't want to be party to a tie, even if it turned out that two of three were werewolves.

I'm informing the guy who be short of our choice with this pm. There. Let him not be able to say that we held him until the last moment this time.

Reading back through all these quotes of spawn's, I sure was grasping at straws!

So now you know why we voted for dancing spawn. Next time I play, I'll use the phantom's method instead of hunting blindly like I did. You gotta admit, spawn's stuff could be interpreted that she could be the seer. Now, I'd like to hear from spawn what she really was talking about?

Oh, something I forgot to say regarding Night Three: Esgal had some good reasons to keep the phantom alive one more day: he might have gotten lynched anyway. Then we might have gone after Saurreg next, thus removing both shirriffs, who proved themselves to be quite useful to the village after all. But I had a "bee in my bonnett" about the phantom and persuaded my co-wolves (right or wrong) to my own way of thinking. I kinda wish they'd have put up more of a fight.

[Lalaith]

Thanks for posting that, lmp....it's very interesting to find out what was going on behind the scenes. I had no idea you'd killed dancing spawn as a seer suspect....

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by LMP - to tgwbs

Since I have nobody to discuss this stuff with, I'm sending my thoughts to you, despite the fact that it is my decision and you will not, and should not, respond.

Anguirel is the seer. He has identified two people as innocent, which tells me that he has dreamed about a lot of now-dead villagers (cackle!). So I still have a remote chance. If I kill him tonight, his little list will become gospel, and my kill list becomes obvious: kill those the others are sure are innocent, so that they lose certainty. I have to leave Feanor alive or else bring suspicion upon myself. So it looks like Ang, Saur, Cel, in that order. More thoughts coming soon.

Because of Anguirel's list, assuming that he is the seer, there are three known innocents, one werewolf, and four uncertain innocents. If I kill Anguirel, then we have two known innocents, one werewolf, and four uncertain innocents, but every last one of them is absolutely convinced of the innocence of the two known innocents, since the seer's posts become gospel truth to fall back upon (thank the lycan gods that he seems to have been rather inept in his posting and kept dreaming the wrong people!)

Hookbill and I discussed me voting for him. I told him I would, but then thought that I might not because it would look suspicious, until Anguirel's ploy gave me that out.

The two "gifts" still out there are Cursed Villager and Hunter.

Once the Seer is out of the picture: whereas it's useful to get rid of known innocents (such as Saurreg .... and Celuien, considering the supposed Seer's validation of her), it would be better to get rid of Celuien first in case she's the cursed villager, because it's obvious that Saurreg isn't. Not to mention it would be a gas if Celuien found herself a werewolf, a more unlikely candidate I cannot imagine.

The Cursed Villager could be any one of the following: Celuien, Eomer, Evisse, Feanor, Firefoot, Lalaith (she seems cursed!), Nilpaurion, and Oddwen. Odds of killing the cursed villager at this point: 8:1

The Hunter could be any one of the following: Celuien, Evisse, Feanor, Firefoot, or Lalaith. The Hunter has to be after LMP in order to kill LMP when LMP attacks the Hunter. Question: Can the Hunter choose LMP and kill LMP because he's a werewolf even if LMP doesn't attempt to kill the Hunter but someone else? Odds, as it looks to me right now: 15:1 (5+4+3+2+1?) (both have to be looking for each other).

If I have that right, and if I don't go for Anguirel tonight, I have a twice as good chance of finding the new werewolf as being killed and game over.

But Anguirel has a 3:1 chance of dreaming about me tonight. Those are odds I can't take a chance against. He's gonna die tonight, but I'm not yet done figuring things out, so please answer my question and then I'll give you the official kill choice.

What I can't get over is that some of the villagers still don't have a clue that Anguirel is the seer! Which changes tonight.

I hope you find this entertaining.

I sent tgwbs one final PM giving him my kill choice, and asking some further question, I forget now what it was. Anyway. So there it is. That's as far as I got, Night Five. You guys are lucky Esgal died of frog-in-mouth disease. My concern is that I haven't heard from her since then at all.....

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Reading back through all these quotes of spawn's, I sure was grasping at straws!
You gotta admit, spawn's stuff could be interpreted that she could be the seer. Now, I'd like to hear from spawn what she really was talking about?

Well, I guess it could be interpreted that way *innocent whistling*
My reason that would lead me to "an incredibly boring thread" was that I didn't believe phantom was quilty because he had been a werewolf in game II but I wasn't allowed to refer to it. Actually, I don't know if the mod just draws lots about the roles so there could have been a chance for him to be a wolf again but I didn't find his behaviour suspicious. And I said that out loud.

It would have been a good plan (in my opinion) to act "Seerishly" because if the wolves had killed me, the gifted ones would have had yet another day to use their gifts.

Then, of course, some started to find me suspicious. It would have been fine to get killed during the night but getting lynced on day would've been annoying (that's the time to maul wolves, if possible, not innocents).

Because of that, I said

Originally Posted by me

Of course, if you lynch me then we can as well follow phantom's plan.

Phantom's plan was: let's kill innocents on daytime. What villagers would do by lyncing me: kill an innocent on daytime. There was no deeper meaning in that.

Originally Posted by lmp

Next time I play, I'll use the phantom's method instead of hunting blindly like I did.

But I think you did great, lmp! There's no way that a wolf could guess everyone's roles right so don't blame yourself.