The Midsummer Maulings (WW5)

[the guy who be short]

Okay, Kitanna's vote really confuses me. A sensible vote for both a wolf and an innocent would be somebody already mentioned, ie Gil or Holby. What do we make of this?

Do my eyes deceive me entirely? Are we actually plotting out a bandwagon approach? Do you people realize that with bandwagoning as the accepted option, that nobody's vote can seriously be taken as hard evidence? If we all vote the same, wolves can hide. Or was that your plan, Holby?

I'm in charge of the bandwaggoning, Fea. We have to organise this. No village has ever had to deal with four wolves before. If the wolves band together in their votes, which is so obviously a bad ida that we could miss it, we'd have four votes for an innocent. That could easily sway the rest of the villagers.
By planning out who we want to vote for and who we think is guilty, we can reach a compromise. This person would be who the majority of people have on their suspect list, if not somebody on the top of everybody's list.
This then means that the wolves cannot influence the vote as much. People don't see "Four votes for person X, he must be guilty" and then get tempted to join in. It also means, if the villagers are striking near to the mark, the wolves cannot use the tactic of accusing one of their fellows (though not voting for them). If somebody is second or third on everybody's list, it is safer to lynch them. A wolf cannot accuse a fellow wolf because then this person's name goes on the list.

I'm not sure how much sense I'm making, but the point is, the idea works. Or should do.

[mormegil]

Currently I would rather vote for Durelin as I mentioned earlier. We have an interesting dynamic in this game where a clear majority needs to be reached. So bandwagoning isn't alltogether a bad thing. But her approach wasn't explained so I see some suspicion in Holby. I will probably vote for either Holby or Kitanna who I have mentioned before as well. Holby is new on my list but Fea's arguement actual does make some sense .

As for Kitanna's vote for me it's a bit odd and weak evidence at best. At that stage odds are you could pick anybody at random and say they are innocent and be correct. I, however, never stated definatively that Gil1 was innocent but that there is doubt in my mind as to his guilt and I'm giving him the benefit of that doubt. I want to preserve and innocents life and I'm accused based on that...

Well I shall be back soon and give my vote. Again I'd prefer Durelin today but seemingly the tide is going elsewhere.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

TGWBS: Huh?

Now the million dollar question: if I change my vote, will I be accused of wolvish association with Fea?

Probably. After all, I've already "slipped" in telling everyone I'm a wolf. In all seriousness right here: I just want you to remember that I'm not at all certain on Holby. There's an extremely good chance that all my seemingly shoddy evidence is just that: shoddy. But she's the one I suspect most. After her, it would probably be Mormegil. After him (and weirdly enough, I agree with him on this one), it would be Durelin. Morm could be a very clever werewolf hiding himself in plain sight. If he's a wolf, he's probably laughing his head off because so many people suspect him, but nobody's doing anything. On the other hand, if he's innocent, he's probably not laughing, and is probably thinking "Thank God they aren't voting for me. That would seriously shorten this game."

[the guy who be short]

TGWBS: Huh?

Let me try to explain better.

Say that all the villagers think Feanor () seems guilty. However, every member thinks somebody else seems even more guilty than Feanor. TGWBS thinks durelin is guiltier than Feanor, but think mormegil is innocent. Kath thinks mormegil seems guiltier than Feanor, but thinks durelin is innocent.

Normally, in this scenario, TGWBS would vote for durelin and Kath for mormegil. Votes would be spread out. Even though there was very real suspicion of Feanor in all minds, nobody votes for her.

It seems that a lot of us think Kitanna seems guilty, and I am certainly one of them. I believe durelin seems guilter than her, but have compromised and voted Kitanna instead, as a greater number of villagers think she is likely to be a wolf.

Comprendrez?

Additionally, this makes it hard for wolves to "point fingers" at one another as they often do, because as soon as they make an accusation, that person has one more "point," and so is more likely to be voted for by consensus and compromise.

The flaw I see with my plan is that all four wolves could name an innocent as a suspect so we could see this innocent lynched as a result. However, for the moment, I am still willing to compromise with the death of Kitanna.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Additionally, this makes it hard for wolves to "point fingers" at one another as they often do, because as soon as they make an accusation, that person has one more "point," and so is more likely to be voted for by consensus and compromise.

You realize that if the wolves decide to sacrifice one of their own, your plan is shot?

[mormegil]

I've thought about it a lot and reviewed the posts. While I am still highly suspicious of Kitanna and now Holbytlass I think I am going to vote for the person I find the greatest amount of evidence that she is a wolf.

++DURELIN

I realize that a consensus would help us out but I think that Kitanna is contributing more to our theories (even though I'm her suspect) than Durelin. Also Durelin's quick change and poor me approach raised many red flags that I think need to be addressed. I'm not willing to let her fly under the radar any longer. I suggest those who have voted for others look at changing their vote to Durelin. We can look long and hard at both Kitanna, Holbytlass, myself et al tomorrow. I vote Durelin and hope I am not wrong about her.

[the guy who be short]

You realize that if the wolves decide to sacrifice one of their own, your plan is shot?

Who cares? The point is about getting a wolf now. If they sacrifice one of their own at this stage, I don't really care, because we're still getting that wolf and preventing us from dealing with horrible odds tomorrow.

Mormegil: durelin does indeed look suspicious, and unless something changes, I for one will be pushing for her lynching tomorrow. As you said, though, consensus is quite vital at this stage.

Kitanna still has a majority of votes, and I don't think that's changing. However, if you think Holby looks more wolfy than Kitanna, be tactical and vote for her! She has a chance of being lynched, at least. I don't think a vote for durelin at this point will have any effect.

To clarify: I don't want to implement the plan I have laid out below tomorrow due to the two big gaping holes in it. I simply think it's better to use it now, for one day, to bag us that werewolf.

[mormegil]

As it stands now


Kath: 1
Mormegil:1
Gil-Galad: 1
Durelin: 1
Holbytlass: 2
Kitanna: 4

Only one person hasn't voted yet...Oro. So without people changing their votes no clear majority will be reached. We have around one hour (I think) to make our decision. While I am reluctant to change my vote but willing if need arises. It seems that need is arising. I am still torn on who to vote between our front runners Holby and Kitanna. I will review a bit more and come to a decision soon. I am open to discussion on who I should change to, if I change at all, but most likely I will. I know that suspicion will be garnered due to a change, but I'd rather get somebody we all feel is guilty than have somebody killed at random.

[the guy who be short]

morm, according to the most recent rules, an overall majority is not required, so Kitanna will still be killed unless some people change their votes.

It seems likes Kitanna will die. If she is a wolf, I will most probably be slain during the night. If she is innocent, our odds will be horribly reduced and I shall be spared so that I may be lynched during the Day.

Tomorrow, I would like to Seer to openly declare their dreams to date. At night, the Guardian must protect the Seer.
If the Seer dreams of a wolf, everybody should obviously lynch the wolf.
If the Seer dreams of an innocent, people know not to vote for the innocent. Additionally, the wolves will be forced to kill the known innocent during the night, thereby stopping them from killing the Guardian.
If the Seer dreams of the Hunter, they should use their judgement. If they think the Hunter has good judgement, declare the Hunter to be innocent. The wolves will then kill the Hunter during the night, and the Hnter will kill somebody to go with them. Hopefully this will be a wolf. If the Seer considers the Hunter to have poor judgement, do what you will.
If the Seer dreams of the Guardian, say nothing. The Guardian is who the plan revolves around. If the Guardian is slain, the Seer dies the next day. However, even this is permissable, as the Seer will have one more night to dream.

I've thought that plan through. If anybody sees flaws, please tell us as quickly as possible.
Should Kitanna be innocent, the plan must be implemented. Should Kitanna be a wolf, the need is less dire, but it would be helpful all the same.

[mormegil]

It's a desperate plan but I think it's the best we have for our desperate situation. It would give us a good idea who either the wolves are or who some innocents are. Two drawbacks. We loose the seer the next night but get some good knowledge from him/her. If either seer or guardian are killed the whole plan crumbles. Would it be worth the risk for the seer to declare him/herself tomorrow if the guardian dies tonight?

I will change my vote...after reading it through and checking back posts I'm as convinced of Holby as I am Durelin. Kitanna's a close third but I think we can wait for the seer to dream of her tonight and hopefully disclose her identity tomorrow.

--Durelin

++Holbytlass

[mormegil]

Kath: 1
Mormegil:1
Gil-Galad: 1
Holbytlass: 3
Kitanna: 4

Oro still hasn't voted.

[Holbytlass]

For the good of the village, and since TGWBS's plan is good (as good as any) and since we don't know if Oro will be able to vote and since I don't know if Kittana is gifted or not, I only know about me.

--KITTANA
++HOLBYTLASS

I am allowed to commit suicide. Goodluck, think better of me

[Orominuialwen]

Well, at this point it doesn't seem to really matter what my suspicions are, but for the record, I find both Kitanna and Holbytlass fishy. I'd been agonizing over which way to vote, but it seems that I now have a clear reason to vote for one of them. It would be much better to vote for one of the people I find suspicious and have a possible wolf get lynched than vote for anybody else and greatly increase the chances of killing an innocent through a tie. Only the wolves would relish that. In fact, that makes me wary of morm. Did he change his vote hoping that I too would vote for Holbytlass, thus causing a tie, which would probably kill an innocent and save Kitanna? Could her suspicions of him all be a bluff in order to distance the wolvish pair? I don't have the answers, but I'll take the possibility of lynching a wolf over the probability of killing an innocent and vote ++Kitanna.