Tol-in-Gaurhoth VII (The Saga goes ever on and on)

[The Only Real Estel]

And TORE, that was merely a simple observation, as it was the first line in I believe your first post, so it stuck out to me in my scanning

Just making sure.

Interesting theory, TGWBS, I'll chew on that whilst I am busy & hopefully I'll get a chance to summarize some of what's been going on/my thoughts so far.

[Kath]

Completely OOC

I realise I have made myself look rather suspicious what with my lack of a vote yesterday. My explanation is rooted in RL problems (namely the loss of a holiday) and there was no way of getting on the computer at the time. I did not know this before I previously left and so did not vote in my last post. I was only 9 minutes late having begged my parents to just give me 2 minutes but Firefoot had already closed voting. This is pretty much the same reason for my lack of being here so far toDay and I apologise. I should not have this problem again but if I do then I'll take myself out of the game to avoid any further confusion.

I have no time for further analyses of people right now but I will make sure I go over what has been said later on.

[Orominuialwen]

First of all, the reason for my lack of vote yesterDAY was a malfunctioning computer. It froze as I was posting and DAY was over by the time I got it to work again.

As far as I see it, the only reason the wolves got Fea was because she said something that scared them. She most likely named at least one, probably multiple wolves in her accusation and they were afraid that she would continue to point fingers at them. The only problem is that she accused enough people that it's very difficult to figure out who among her accusees is really a wolf.

[Kitanna]

I go off to work, I come back and this happens...poor dear Fea. And to be killed in such a gruesome manner.

And now there seems to be a lot of buzz around TGWBS, some around morm, and some around Kath.

[Kitanna]

I had some tiem to think during dinner tonight. And something struck me about TGWBS and who voted for him. It was Eomer's post about Oddwen, Elf-Warrior, and lmp, that first got me thinking. I believe at least one wolf is in that mix.

I think it might just be Oddwen. She was the first to vote for The Guy, and she did it early on to because she thought she wouldn't be around later. That's understandable. But here's the reason she gave for voting for TGWBS.

T. Guy, because as has been said, is not using an abacus. What this exactly means I have no idea, but it seems to have a mathematical ring to it - I'm assuming he doesn't use it because the Maths which Do Not Lie would point him out. And he couldn't fudge it, because well...Math does Not Lie.

So part of her reason for voting for him were because of the lack of abacus. He may not have used it on day one, but maybe on day two. And that might just point to Oddwen.
She also says:

I am somewhat relieved, however, that the two most loud-mouthed suspicious-acting people are no longer here to confuse us.

Glad to see two innocent villagers dead? That can't possibly be normal.

But here's my theory on those who voted for TGWBS. It's an odd little theory, but I think it makes sense.
Three people voted for The Guy. Three being the number of wolves. Of course the wolves couldn't possibly be stupid enough to all three vote for the same person. No, no I think the first two voters may be wolves and they hoped to gain a third vote. Which they did.
I feel Oddwen is most likely a wolf.
Elf-Warrior might be a wolf, I think he's a little sketchy. I'm less certain about him.
lmp I believe is innocent.

I still have some bad feeling about TGWBS, but I'm more worried about Oddwen.

[Oddwen]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Quote:
I am somewhat relieved, however, that the two most loud-mouthed suspicious-acting people are no longer here to confuse us.
Glad to see two innocent villagers dead? That can't possibly be normal.

I'm not glad that two innocents are dead. I am slightly relieved that two loudmouths are dead. I'm glad that Fea was loudmouthed, because now her posts are above Werewolfy suspicion. Nilp however, I can't really find anything of substance.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

So part of her reason for voting for him were because of the lack of abacus. He may not have used it on day one, but maybe on day two. And that might just point to Oddwen.

Then again, it might pick you. Whatever happens likely means little. As he himself pointed out, the Abacus is more for a random pick, not for the actual deductions. I was wrong in suspecting him for that.
And now it appears that he's been pulling the "old deaf man gets a hearing aid but doesn't tell his relatives and changes his will eighty times" deal. A bluff. I blush, even if it ain't true.


I have to look at the two who "threw away" their votes when Nilp's death was sure.

TorEstel for Oromin, and Eomer for Oddwen. Could bear watching, though I'm leaning towards them being innocent in origin.

I'm going to look at Fea's posts again, expect more from me either soon or in the morning.

[mormegil]

Here is my outline of thoughts

TGWBS--Too eager to jump on killing Nilp. Though I agree it is good to have both of the most enigmatic players gone. While I don't like to see innocents dead, if I had to pick some that's a good choice. I can see one side of TGWBS saying "Nilp wants to die anyway and he's confusing so at least we won't get a gifted" but it could be very wolvish as well. However, something is not sitting right with him to me. I'll keep a close eye on him though probably won't vote him. Additionally thought that the wolves killed Fea because they suspected her to be the seer. I don't see how anybody could think Fea the seer by declaring that. Not even Fea would be bold enough to try that one.

Saurreg--Not too much to gone with but not over suspicious at this point. Probably innocent.

Kitanna--Gut feeling and reaction to her posts may be guilty but I'm just not sure yet. I'm leaving her in my neutral category until further evidence either way.

Encaitare--Red flags are going all over with her. But I have been wrong before. Her behavior just isn't sitting right with me. I may vote her.

Oddwen--Honestly I've gone back and forth on her just like dancing spawn. One minute I'm sure she guilty the next I think she's innocent. I'd like to know what others think.

Elf-warrior--Either a wolf or misguided innocent. He's in my suspect category but I'll probably not vote for him today. Give him a chance to prove his possible innocence.

LMP--It's always dangerous to defend somebody but I believe him to be innocent.

Durelin--Still highly suspect. Playing it very smoothly and cool which makes me suspicious. Not offering too much by way of opinion wants to keep the spotlight off her and yet keep active. May vote her again.

Wilwarin--I'm not as convinced of her innocence as was Fea. A bold wolf could kill somebody that thought her innocent and hope that somebody, another wolf perhaps, points out that no wolf would do that. This would implicate a TGWBS/Wilwarin team. Unless, of course, TGWBS is the victim of her ploy which I don't think is the case. I may vote her too.

Dancing Spawn--See Oddwen

TORE--Just like LMP I believe his behavior is consistent with an innocent man.

Eomer--A bit of a dandy the way he prances around. Possibly the Scarlet Pimpernel but not guilty.

Kath--Her RL explination makes sense (ah the joys of being an adult and not having to ask your parents, but rather being one ) but it could easily be an excuse given to cover her furry tracks. Possibly guilty category for you.

Lhuna and Oromin--Not enough to go on so currently neutral but will move to guilty if I don't hear something of substance very soon.

[Saurreg]

Please take note, fellow villagers, that I stood back and watched during the lynching of the innocent Nilpaurion. I told you but you would not listen. You who voted for him have no one to blame but yourselves. Why, oh why, does "lynch me" seem to always be obeyed? Will foolish, unenlightened blood-lusting villagers always be swayed by such harmless insanity? As you all now know, Nilpaurion was not in his right mind, or perhaps it would be better stated that he had two too many minds in one head, which is to say that indeed he was crazy, and maybe even wanted to die, but he was not a werewolf, and most of you who voted for him knew it. For shame.

Yarrrhhh, suuuuurrree. Blam it un dah mob den. But yer wun ketch d'ish ol' koot covarin' 'is backside und finding excooses. Me 'll put it on rekord dat me voted fur dat no good wulf breedah und me iez proud of it! 'e was up to no good from dah start und his replies were kunfusing to say dah lest. 'e either wus a wulf fishin' fur a big one ur he was just another irritating, no sense of unity villager out to sabo und hinder ou' kollectif efforts. Good riddance!

Me cannae help but agree dat dah murdah of lit' Fea served lit' purpose. Dah fact wus she pointed at too many folks yes'tday to find time or klause to target at one single villager to haf been a threat to dah wulves. Had seeh singled out one of us from dee start ur somewhere from dah middle wif dah tena'sity of a pitbull, den we would haf somethung to go about wif. But alas, seeh lived 'er short life in a whirlwind of trooths und lies so mixed up dat dis'h ol' man cannae tell whether seeh was serious or not...

Too mana people in dis'h village me tell yer. Und if anyone of yer tells me yer can pinpoint to a wulf wif certainty, then yer a lying stuffed comodore or a wulf yerself. Dah wulves gut lotsa hiding places in sucha huge crowd, 'ill be diffkult to root 'em out.

Fur now, 'ill keep me eyes out un dah death header Durelin und Wil. Dah flower gurl's pretty active yes'tday compared to others und me doubt 'ere 'll be a dif today. Me always sez, loook out fur 'ose who appear to be extra busy, extra talkative und of curz appearing veri ani... ana... loooking into things! Pay close attention to how true her words are, me no trust her.

Und Wil, she be pretty careless about Fea's death. Whistling dis'h und dat. A tad gleeful?

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Encaitare--Red flags are going all over with her. But I have been wrong before. Her behavior just isn't sitting right with me. I may vote her.

I hope this does not prove self-incriminating, but I am forced to wonder what behavior of mine is so suspicious that you're considering voting for me, morm.

Nothing I have said or done is worse than anything that others have said or done. I have made my observations and cast my vote. I'm starting to think that you are turning on me because I have mentioned being suspicious of you.

[The Only Real Estel]

Posted by Kitanna about Oddwen:

Glad to see two innocent villagers dead? That can't possibly be normal.

This would be disturbing but I see it from this point of view: You can't possibly tell me that you're not glad to see that there's only two 'ordinary' villagers dead & not our hunter & our seer or something like that. That's what I'm assuming Oddwen was talking about.

Personally, I'm a little suspicious of Oromin and Lhuna for their lack of posting. I know Lhuna is in a different time zone, but she's only posted once (by my count) & Oromin has only posted twice. Not that I can declare them wolves for this, but at the very least I'm watching them.

Here's a quick synopsis of things that have happened that I deem important (on the first day only, I'm afraid) & my suspicions (which I really have none of right now):

Dancing Spawn - jokes about lynching Saurreg because of his difficult-to-understand posts, thinks the wolves might be The Elf-warrior, wilwa and mormegil (#82), begans to voice suspicious of Wilwa (#87), partially pardons Elf-warrior & wilwa (#109), doesn't want to vote for Nilp for the same reasons as me (still #109), votes for Durelin (#115)

Durelin - suggests that we talk over who to Guard & who to dream about (#78), feels like voting for Morm because he is suspicious of her (#84), votes for Morm (#93)

Elf-warrior - Defends Fea & Lhuna, suspicious of Dancing Spawn, TGWBS, & Nilp (#101), votes for TGWBS (#105)

Encai - Suspicious of Nilp & a little bit suspicious of Morm, put some stock in Fea's morm/emoer/kitanna theory (#100), votes for Nilp (#119)

Eomer - Defends Morm (#9), has a 'feeling' that Nilp is innocent (#71), wonders why Morm has included Elf-Warrior in his list is slightly troubled by Fea (#83), is somewhat suspicious of Wilwa (#88), concludes that he has found Wilwa not likely to be a wolf (#94), Excuses Fea (#98), & Morm at least until later (#99), wonders if Durelin's suggestion of the seer & guardian being discussed is an innocent one or not (would a wolf bring this out against a fellow wolf? probably not) (#114), thinks Durelin might get herself lynched by continuing to act 'this way' but suspects that she is probably innocent, votes for Oddwen (#122)

Feanor - Minds games as usual, advices to watch out for Nilp hiding behind his normal self & suspects that Wilwa is innocent (#58), suspicious of TGWBS, Theory1- Lhuna/Oddwen/Saurreg as wolves, trying to take out innocent Nilp. LMP is Seer in this scenario. Role thinly veiled with astrology talk. Perhaps morm as Seer? Theory2- Mormegil/Eomer/Kitanna as wolves. They all defend Mormegil (knowing that defending would be stupid for wolves, they all did it to throw us off the track- #74) suggests lynching Lhuna & Saurreg (Saurreg jokingly) (still #74), votes for Nilp despite the fact that she 'doesn't think he's guilty' because she 'would hate for him to win the game as a wolf behind the cloak of normalacy' (that's more or less what she said ) (#95)

Kath - Told TGWBS that it's to early to be throwing death plans around (#19), defended Fea, goes after TGWBS again for jokes & going after Elf-Warrior on a 'whim' (#68 & #70), does not vote

Kitanna - Defends Morm (#10), jokes about voting for Saurreg, suspicious of TGWBS & a little worried about Fea (#81), suspicious of Fea & Guy for 'silly & pointless reasons', suspicious of morm, thinks Nilp is probably innocent, says Wilwa bears watching, votes for Nilp (#102)

Lhuna - Howls like a wolf? does not vote...

LMP - Seems to half-suspect Lhuna (#33), talks about 'star charts' and how 'reliable' they are (#66), wonders why people who don't suspect Nilp vote for him (here, here!), says that Eomer, Morm, Wilwa, Spawn, and Saurreg are probably innocent & that Saurreg is the sherrif (unlikely I think), finds Fea likely innocent, votes for TGWBS (#107)

Mormegil - Proposes random method (#32), defends Fea, suspects Saurreg, suspection lists- 1.Durelin 2.Elf-warrior 3.Encai 4.Saurreg & 1.Kath 2.Dancing Spawn 3.Oddwen 4.Oromin 5.TGWBS (#75), says Durelin & Elf-warrior are acting somewhat the same but he's more suspicious of Durelin (#97), votes for Durelin insisting that it's NOT a knee-jerk reaction (#113)

Nilp - Says he's "NOT THE COBBLER", votes for himself,


Oddwen - accuses Nilp, suspicious of Wilwa & TGWBS, somewhat suspicious of Morm & Saurreg (#77)


Oromin - not much to go on, does not vote


Saurreg - After Nilp (#55), votes for Nilp (#90)


TGWBS - Jokingly suggests mass-suicide, then jokingly accuses most of the people in the village (#44), votes for Nilp because he's 'going to confuse me anyway' & he wants to get his lynch rate up, suggests Nilp is hiding behind his 'normal way' of doing things (#91)


TORE - My innocence is for others to decide, though I will say truthfully that I am not the seer (if you couldn't tell that from my complete lack of suspicions!)

Wilwa - Quick to jump on Morm for being 'bloodthirsty' (#8), 'bad feeling' about Morm & TGWBS (#72), votes for Mormegil (#112)


Edit:

And also:
Posted by Elf-Warrior:

I doubt Fea or Lhuna are wolves. Fea seems to be making sense. Lhuna howled like a wolf, you say? Well, where I come from there's a saying, "Live with wolves howl like a wolf."

That sounds mostly like a defense of Lhuna, & an interesteing sounding one at that. Almost as if he's making a saying up to support Lhuna because there's no other evidence. Right now I'm thinking that either Elf-Warrior & Lhuna are wolves (unlikely), Elf-Warrior is the seer & used his dream on Lhuna (unlikely), or perhaps Elf-Warrior & Lhuna are our Sherrifs. I'd be curious on everyone else's thoughts on that...