Tol-in-Gaurhoth VII (The Saga goes ever on and on)

[mormegil]

Okay I've reread everything all at once looking for behavior patterns/changes that are characteristic of wolves. I have some findings that I would like to share. Now I feel confident in my findings and I'm very certain that I am at least 50% correct.

TGWBS--We ought not accuse him of being a blacksmith anylonger. His shop is a cobblers shop. He could be a wolf playing the cobbler but I think he's the cobbler. No sense in killing him until we don't know a wolf. But this would explain his weird and somewhat suspicious behavior. He's being a bit erradic

Durelin--I feel most confident that she is a wolf. In post 12, 15, and 93 (bottom line on 93) she attempts to distance herself from wolves. A bit too obvious if you ask me. In post 78 she wants the gifted to essentially expose themselves but gives up when no interest is shown. Post 84 basically says she'll vote for me because of a knee-jerk reaction and in post 93 she tries to quell that idea and say I'm a random pick. I strongly believe her to be a wolf.

Encaitare--Post 54 a wolfish tatic. Attempts to disassociate even being familar with Firefoot's name. A subtle attempt at showing innocence. Post 100 suggests that Eomer/Mormegil/Kitanna are the wolf trio. I know I am innocent, am fairly certain that Eomer is innocent, and Kitanna is neutral right now. When somebody is suspicious of three people I believe innocent it is an indicator to me. Post 159 her reaction to my accusation is telling. I believe as innocents we should be willing to die if needed. Those who only defend themselves appear lupine to me and this is what Encai has been doing. I'm somewhere around 60% certain she is a wolf too.

Now my third wolf is tricky and I have little certainty but I would say it's either Oddwen or Wilwarin. But my certainty is nominal at best.

Spawn--In rereading I am more convinced of her innocence than I was previously and more convinced of Oddwen's guilt.

There is my list. Unless something changes I probably will vote Durelin. Although I would like to hear much more from Oromin and Lhuna.

PS this village is a bit too blood thirsty...not even letting an executioner do his proper job. Well I'll have you know I've sharpened my axe and hope it finds Durelin's and Encai's neck soon.

Edit: Cross post with Elf-warrior but it looks like I have some support for Durelin.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Oromin

As far as I see it, the only reason the wolves got Fea was because she said something that scared them.

Want to hear two options more?

Option number 1) The wolves thought Fea's the Seer (as TGWBS suggested)

Option number 2) Fea's suspicions were way off the track and the wolves killed her so that nothing could point them out.

I'm still suspicious of Durelin, too.

I'll post more later.

[Lhunardawen]

*laughs at the goings-on*

What drove (some of) you to fall for Nilp's act, swallowing hook, line, and sinker? He was obviously innocent, at least to me.

And killing Fea...I do think it is a strange strategy the werewolves have come up with. Who would think of eliminating someone who gathers suspicion? But then again, maybe she was too confusing that the werewolves themselves were nearly confused with their own identities.

Werewolf 1: Look, Fea's suspicious.
Werewolf 2: Uh-huh. The villagers might think she's a werewolf.
Werewolf 3: Right. Let's kill her.

*laughs like a Lhunatic* But for your info, I was fairly certain of her innocence.

Before I begin my litany, I would like to explain the difference between suspicion and accusation. Suspicion says, "I think ____ is a werewolf. But I'm not really sure." Accusation says, "____ is, no doubt, a werewolf. Lynch him/her!" Got that? *laughs yet again*

Now, the usual.

Enca, lmp, Kitanna, Saurreg, Oromin, Kath, spawn, Estel, and morm are far from the arrows as of now. But everyone should be carefully watched in times like this. Notice that I did not associate the word innocent with them.

tgwbs is acting rather wolfish to me. But he is too wolfish. He might be a cobbler. If he is, he's doing a not-too-good job of hiding it, which, I believe, is actually the point of the role. Worth watching for a few more Days.

Eomer sees no reason to suspect tgwbs, and is very vocal about it. That somehow causes me to suspect him. I don't know why. Should I know why?

The E-w *laughs at the funny nickname* somehow managed to latch himself onto me by defending me. That leads me to think that he might be a werewolf trying to associate himself with an innocent, because I, as Kitanna said, am a harmless Lhunatic.

Durelin is quite noisy, but not exactly a loudmouth. That gathers questioning looks like my stuffed harp seal gathers dust.

Oddwen manages to dodge suspicions.

wilwa is either a confused newbie (I can identify with that) or a confused werewolf.

Lhuna is suspected due to too little substance and too much howling, and is about to howl for the sake of tradition.

*howls like a...wolf???*

At this time I am most likely to vote for Durelin for reasons already said by others. In fact, I might type her name in bold with two plus signs any time soon.

*howls again, for uniformity's sake*

[Lhunardawen]

++DURELIN

I am rarely, if ever, one to repeat what has been said. Take that how you will.

*hoooowls*

[littlemanpoet]

Confustigate it!

I was thinking that Morm was making some good sense, and thought I might vote for Durelin, but now it would be bandwagoning, and I hate bandwagoning!

Allow me to consult my star records and see what I may determine thereby.

Currently, the heavens seem to suggest that the following are innocent:
Kath, Morm, Saur, Estel. Not a long list.

The following seem neutral to me: Spawn, Eomer, Oddwen, Oromin, Wilwa.

The following seem wolfish: Durelin, Elf-warrior, Kitanna, Guy.

This was just from reading over posts in general, and concentrating on some of the more analytical posts. I grant you that this is far from scientific, but the skies have been rather cloudy these last few nights, truth be told.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

The following seem wolfish: Durelin, Elf-warrior, Kitanna, Guy.

I agree. They are exactly the four most suspicious person to me, too. Mormegil may be right about TGWBS being the cobbler, though.

I'm beginning to find Kitanna even more suspicious than Durelin. Kitanna doesn't post very much and it seems that she's just being a fly on the wall. A fly with sharp claws, mind you.

About her voting for Nilp:

Kitanna disengaged herself from all responsibility and possible consequences by saying that her vote is random. When it'd turn out that Nilp's innocent, she could just say:"Bad luck, eh? But don't blame me, I could have voted for anybody."

She jumped on the Nilp bandwagon although, according to her own words, she thought that he wasn't guilty!

When Kitanna voted, she said:

It seems that Nilp is headed for the ax anyway.

At his point four people out of eighteen had voted for Nilp and there were still twelve votes yet to cast.

Kitanna was suspicious of TGWBS for "silly and pointless reasons". Hmm... Later in her post #155 Kitanna defends TGWBS quite much but in the end she says that she's somewhat suspicious of him, anyway. To me this seems like an obligatory move:"I'm suspicious of one of my wolf colleagues so no-one's going to catch us."

[the guy who be short]

Cobbler? Moi? Nay, 'tis clearly the Lhunatic, in my mind anyway.

More thoughts a little later, plus an analysis of Feanor's later posts.

Please explain any "erraticism" you see in my posts and thoughts... *coughmormegilcough*

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Please explain any "erraticism" you see in my posts and thoughts... *coughmormegilcough*

You see I don't think it needs any explaining. The consensus believe that you are acting rather odd. Therefore I am not overly concerned with explaining in detail all of you oddities. Rather I would say that you should not be our prime target but would always be a good secondary target. Perhaps we can change his ways and bring him back into the mainstream of the village by finding some way for him to enjoy life.

[Encaitare]

Encaitare--Post 54 a wolfish tatic. Attempts to disassociate even being familar with Firefoot's name. A subtle attempt at showing innocence.

That was an in-character comment -- if you recall the "cast list," my title in the village is the wandering gypsy who's happened to be passing through.

Post 100 suggests that Eomer/Mormegil/Kitanna are the wolf trio. I know I am innocent, am fairly certain that Eomer is innocent, and Kitanna is neutral right now. When somebody is suspicious of three people I believe innocent it is an indicator to me.

That was early in the game, and at the time it seemed logical to me. Remember that I was not the one who devised that theory, but the late Feanor.

Post 159 her reaction to my accusation is telling. I believe as innocents we should be willing to die if needed. Those who only defend themselves appear lupine to me and this is what Encai has been doing. I'm somewhere around 60% certain she is a wolf too.

I act this way because every small hint of defending or accusing someone is blown out of proportion in this game. In the last game I played I defended someone and everyone got susupicious and thought we were in cahoots when we were, in fact, not. Besides, if I were a wolf I would obviously be trying to defend my fellow wolves.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I had forgotten all about the cobbler. And I have no real idea how to incorporate him/her into my thoughts.

Actually, I'm ever so slightly worried. DAY 2 hasn't been as helpful as I thought it might be. I think we'll have one more round of 'voting in the dark'.

It seems Durelin is getting a mighty share of attention. Her behaviour is a little bit suspicious but I have a feeling she might be only a confused lass trying to help.

My thoughts are still very much focused on Oddwen, Elf-Warrior and littlemanpoet. I expect one of those three to be a wolf, because of their voting for tgwbs.

I am also thinking that the wolves would have had no need to vote for Nilp (whom they knew to be innocent) because Nilp would have received votes anyhow. So why would the wolves incriminate themselves by adding their names to a doomed innocent? Any thoughts on that? It might suggest that the others who voted for Nilp are also innocent (or it might show that the wolves aren't thinking too deeply on this matter, unlike me ).

The no-voters trouble me slightly too. Voting makes this, um, event more interesting. Kath and Oromin have explained their RL difficulties. However, Lhuna decided not to bother voting because she 'had nothing to go on'. Well, no-one else had anything much to go on either. In fact, you had barely anything to go on in your voting today but you still did it. No voting seems like a quiet wolf strategy more than anything. There was another no-voter but I can't remember who it was; I'll go and look it up now and then EDIT this post.

So.....stay tuned!

EDIT: No! Everyone else voted. So, though it crushes me to say this, Lhunardawen is near the top of my list.

[Kath]

Ok a look over what has been going on:

Nilp's death was unfortunate but at least he was not a gifted innocent seems to be the major consensus here, whereas as to me the thought should be, oh no we've killed an innocent, lets look at who voted for him! I can't believe that everyone who voted for him believed that he was a wolf, his act was just too obvious.

So:
Nilp - voted for himself but since we know he is an innocent we'll just have to agree that he's insane

TGWBS - voted for Nilp because he wanted the confusing loudmouths out of the way. As a wolf the death of Fea would fit with this way of thinking except that this might be just a little over obvious. So either this is a double bluff or he's hoping the obviousness will keep him from suspicion.

Saurreg - we have heard little from him but in his posts I can find nothing to suggest being a wolf. More will be needed to clear him but I have no suspicions towards him at the moment.

Fea - we know is innocent.

Kitanna - to be honest I think she voted for Nilp because he was ahead in votes and she didn't want to go for anyone else, perhaps for fear that if Nilp was a wolf she would be suspected for not voting for him.

Encai - I am not sure of her at all. I will watch her quite closely and make a decision later.

As for people who did not vote for Nilp:
Oddwen - again not sure on her, will need more posts.
Elf-warrior - I don't really suspect.
LMP - confuses me.
Mormegil - for once I think him innocent.
Durelin - seems to be the new suspect of the village and I can't say that I disagree.
Wilwarin - no idea, but probably innocent.
Dancing Spawn - I think likely to be innocent.
Oromin - maybe a wolf.
TORE - no t sure.
Eomer - I should say innocent.
Lhuna - the howling might be a Fea like idea, staying in the open to avoid suspicion.