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Old 08-10-2005, 10:11 AM   #1
littlemanpoet
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littlemanpoet is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.littlemanpoet is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Prediction

With two kills per night (minimum) as long as the black beorning survives, and one lynching per day, throw in a cobbler and a cursed villager, the werewolves have a statistical advantage.

Can the Black Beorning kill a werewolf during the night? If so, that evens things out a little. If not, I predict a werewolf win in a shatteringly quick game.

Consider:

Night 1: Oddwen dies

Day 1: one lynching: 18 villagers remain: 3 werewolves, 1 cobbler, 1 beorning, 13 innocents.

Night 2: two killings; statistical likelihood of it being two innocents:
------ 16 villagers remain: 3 werewolves, 1 cobbler, 1 beorning, and 11 innocents.

Day 2: one lynching: 15 villagers.

Night 3: two killings: 14 villagers remain: probably 3 werewolves, 1 cobbler, 1 beorning, and 8 innocents.

My numbers look to be off somewhere, but you get the picture. As the number of innocents goes down, the chance of a werewolf lynching increases, but the deaths happen too fast.

What's the solution to this? 1. Make darned sure the shirriffs get to announce themselves when they want to. 2. Can the black beorning or cobbler. My opinion.
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Old 08-10-2005, 10:17 AM   #2
wilwarin538
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I really like the cobbler role, I wasn't sure of it at first but now I really like it.

The shirriff role would have been better if we could have revealed ourselves.

I'm not to sure about the werehamster/black beorning. I think we should drop that role, maybe replace it with the mytho, that sounded interesting to me.
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Old 08-10-2005, 10:34 AM   #3
Alcarillo
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1420!

I agree with littlemanpoet that it seems as though the wolves would have a statistical advantage. If we drop a role, I think it should be the werehamster/black beorning. It's too complicated for me. The cobbler was a great addition to the games and I'd like to see it too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwarin538
maybe replace it with the mytho, that sounded interesting to me.
Well, we might as well just add another seer. I think another ranger or hunter would be better.
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Old 08-10-2005, 11:07 AM   #4
The Saucepan Man
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lmp
Can the Black Beorning kill a werewolf during the night?
As I understand it, yes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lmp
Make darned sure the shirriffs get to announce themselves when they want to.
Agreed.

And, on that basis, I do not think that the inclusion of a Werehamster will unbalance things. Remember that the Werehamster is playing for him/herself rather than on the Wolves' team and so had just as much reason to want the Wolves dead as the Villagers. Indeed, it's for that reason that I think that the game should continue if the Werehamster outlives all three Wolves.

And allowing the Shirriffs to announce themselves will help the villagers greatly, provided that they choose their moment carefully. This will give the village at least one DAY when there are two known innocents, and possibly a further DAY when there remains one known innocent.

Also, we will have 15 innocent villagers at the start of the game (although one will be cursed), which is a huge statistical advantage for the village. The original game, as I recall, had only 9 innocent villagers pitted againt 3 Wolves and that was by no means unbalanced in favour of the Wolves. Kuru won as the sole remaining Wolf, but only by playing skilfully and it was a very close run thing.

I like the idea of the Werehamster/Black Beorning, but I am content to go with the majority on this. If the role is excluded, then careful thought needs to be given to restricting the Shirriffs. On the other hand, if it is to be included, then, as I have said, we need to be very clear on how the role works, winning conditions etc, so as to avoid confusion.

With all due respect to Mithalwen, I'm not at all in favour of the Mythomaniac, as I feel that this role has too much potential to swing the game one way or the other, simply based on the choice of one villager.
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Old 08-10-2005, 11:16 AM   #5
mormegil
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I'm of the opinion that the black beoring and cobbler together might be a little overkill in the wolves favor. I realize that the black beoring could kill a wolf but more than likely he will be aiding the wolves by killing innocents so to have one more person on the wolves team is undesireable.
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Old 08-10-2005, 11:23 AM   #6
Firefoot
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I agree with SpM completely. I would like to see a werehamster, though the Shirriffs would be allowed to reveal themselves. And I don't really like the mythomaniac (I was a mytho); like SpM said, it can severely shift the advantage. The game in which I became the second seer was probably the least fun game I have ever played (nothing against Fea or any of the players!) because after the first Day it was basically devoid of possible ways to make mistakes and go with hunches (and I didn't like being a seer ).

I agree that the werehamster should not die if the Seer dreams of it, and I think it is a good idea that the game continue to go on if the werehamster lives but the wolves are dead. This would make it so that the werehamster would also want the wolves dead, and the balance would not be tipped so much towards the wolves.
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Old 08-10-2005, 12:58 PM   #7
Oddwen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel & Ff
If the Werehamster attacks the Cursed Villager, what happens? Does he/she become another hamster and do the two hamsters then work together like the wolves?
The Cursed Villager can be cursed only by Werewolves, I'd think. There should only be one Hamster per game. (Wouldn't that be a pretty power struggle?)
Plus I don't want to write out three deaths per night.

The Mytho is a very powerful role if played right, maybe it would be more challenging in a game where there are fewer gifteds. Not in this game, certainly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ff
Oddwen, somehow you didn't finish your response to that question of why the hamster dies when the seer dreams of them; the sentence ends "I always supposed it was because".
Erp, sorry...I was thinking about several different things and didn't end up finishing that one...so lynch me.
I guess I was thinking that the Werehamster is more of a psycho killer than some supernaturally altered beast, and that "deep magic" would kill it. Or something.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ff
I am against having another wolf. Between the werehamster and the cobbler, I think having a cursed villager is plenty fine.
Another Wolf would be too much. However, having the Wolves and the Hamster and the Cobbler and the Cursed seems to be a lot too. I wouldn't object to seeing either the Cobbler or the Cursed dropped.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpM
Is there any reason why the game should not continue if all the Wolves are dead but the Werehamster remains alive?
Well, the game isn't called "Werewolf" for nothing.
I have no objections either way, if the Players would like to hold a vote that'd be ok.


A small problem if the game is long - I'm going downstate early Saturday morning, Aug. 20. If it's a choice of having an extra early (or long) DAY/NIGHT, or having someone step in for me for that one day, which would you choose?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
Seeing as my original role wouldn't fit well with the village's setting high in the mountains, I've decided on a new one: Ye Olde Knighte.
Are you sure you want to change? I had such a plan for you.
As to roleplaying - if you would like to, go ahead.
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Old 08-10-2005, 01:07 PM   #8
Azaelia of Willowbottom
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Silmaril eep.

When is this game scheduled to start? I have just remembered that I will be gone this coming weekend, unfortunately without a computer. I don't want to miss out on another whole game due to this, but I don't want to cause inconvenience...or get lynched right away!...
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