Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by The Monkey Man

I don'te thinke we shoulde let Durelin out of our sights. On ye firste Daye, she voteth not for Mithalwen, but for Firefoot, who turneth out to be innocente. On ye seconde Daye, she bandwagoneth withe CaptainofDespair and attempteth to lynche Ye Saucepan Man, while yesterDaye, she saith:

and insteade voteth for Boromir88. Notice a patterne? On bothe Days when a Wolfe is aboute to be lynched, she attacketh someone else. I thinke she is ye laste Wolfe, or ye Cobbler.

First of all, I knew Saucepan Man had you all against CoD, but I felt he was innocent, so I felt my best bet was to vote for who he considered to be guilty. I just did not want innocent blood on my hands.

And as for Gil...I'm sorry, but I think he played the role of the werewolf way too openly. I never would have expected a wolf to have done so. I suppose that might be why he risked it. But now we have two wolves down, and the victory of the village looks possible....though so does the victory of the bear.

LMP's plan is interesting. It might be our best bet. But we need to hear from Dancing Spawn, and it would be nice to hear some more from Nonnedack. I think it's more possible that Non is the bear, though it is also possible that he is a wolf, simply because there was little he could do to stop any lynchings of his fellow wolves. They were caught red-handed, being very wolfish.

I still am unsure about our Boromir. Unfortunately it seems he will be gone, and I'd much like to hear from him. Darn. Well, hopefully I shall have time to look over previous posts later (again).

I am also still not very trusting of Saucepan Man. I still think it's possible that he is a rather bold bear. Whatever he's been doing, it's been keeping him out of suspicion, either rightfully, or not.

And there should be no ruling out of anyone, I believe. We have one wolf and one bear left, and I think it's, in a way, easier for them to hide now.

EDIT: Cross-posted with LMP...maybe others....

[Lalaith]

Something has occurred to me.
Lmp may be the Cobbler. Yesterday, he urged the Seer to dream of him. If the Seer did indeed dream of him, he will just see an ordinary villager, of course.

SpM, I insist you you retract this statement about me, as misleading and untrue:

but [Lalaith] had not accused him at all previously, having said that he was either just being himself or was the Cobbler.

Here's what I said in post 220.

Gil-Galad - Like nearly all of us have said. Could be a wolf, could be the cobbler, could just be Gil.

Chief wolf suspects: LMP and dancing spawn. Minor wolf suspect: Gil.

I shall now go over your statements about others as well to check for accuracy. *glares suspiciously*

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

SpM, I insist you you retract this statement about me, as misleading and untrue

Calm down, Lal! You have moved from chief Wolf suspect to Wolf suspect No 4 on my list over-Night.

OK, it's not strictly correct, for which I apologise. I had not spotted your reference to him as a minor Wolf suspect, admittedly. But there was no intention to mislead and I don't think it really changes the import of my point.

Edit: That should be Wolf suspect No 3 ...

[Lalaith]

Harrumph. You miners are all the same. Putting words into people's mouths and twisting them something they didn't mean.

[The Saucepan Man]

Some thoughts on what has been said so far today.

Originally Posted by LMP

The Seer will be killed tonight, attacked by both werebear and werewolf, because that person has not bee subtle enough to escape their notice.

This was LMP’s prediction for last Night. Personally, I think that the Seer has been very subtle – perhaps even too subtle (and no, that’s not an attempt to flush him or her out). However, I think that LMP may have thought that he had spotted the Seer yester-Day. I also believe that he dropped a hint as to who it might be and that (assuming that he is the Cobbler or the Bear) he was hoping that the Wolf would have picked up on it. I have an idea who LMP thinks the Seer might be, but I think that he’s wrong.

Originally Posted by LMP

Nonnacedak will not have been killed, because I think … [he] is the remaining Wolf.

Originally Posted by Laitaine

I still think the final werewolf is our fisher, Non.
Makes perfect sense for him to jump on wagon for Gil‘s kill,

Please. Just look at his votes. A Wolf might vote for another Wolf at a critical time once or, if very bold, twice even. But three nights in a row!!??

LMP’s and Laitaine’s insistence that Nonnacedak is the Wolf look very suspicious to me. He may be the Bear, but he is not a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I know suspicions of me are arrising.

They are? As far as I can tell, only Durelin is suspicious of you.

Originally Posted by LMP

Oh, and about the above proposal/request, ask yourself "why would LMP vote so early again...

1-if he was a werewolf?
2-if he was a werebear?

Simple. You would do so to divert suspicion. Your early Day 1 vote has previously been noted as making you seem overly suspicious and therefore not something a Were-thing would do. If you are innocent, then you should not be voting with such haste, before we have all had a chance to share our thoughts over yester-Day’s lynching and last Night’s kills. I suspect dancing spawn too but I cannot be anything like certain and most certainly would not vote for her without giving her the opportunity to speak.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Lmp may be the Cobbler. Yesterday, he urged the Seer to dream of him. If the Seer did indeed dream of him, he will just see an ordinary villager, of course.

A very good point. If he’s not the Bear, he may well be the Cobbler. Either way, however, I think we should be looking for the Wolf today.

And it seems to me that, so far to-Day, there has been far too much defensiveness and not enough analysis.

[Lalaith]

Actually I would ask the Seer, whoever s/he, to be careful. I think attempts are being made to flush him/her out, and with eleven of us left of which only two killers remain, we need you around more than ever....

I am becoming increasingly convinced that lmp must be the Cobbler. As well as my Seer point earlier, I thought - why else flush out arcticstorm as Shirriff so conspiciously? If Lmp were a bear or wolf, having realised arcticstorm was the Shirriff he could just have killed him that night, the open way it was done suggests it was done for the benefit of the weres, not actually by a were.
So today we could do a lot worse than lynch Lmp.
BUT, Lmp's vote for spawn has got me wondering. Could it be a double bluff? Lmp knows he is under suspicion by an awful lot of us. His lead is unlikely to be followed, the vote might divert the rest of us away from spawn.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Actually I would ask the Seer, whoever s/he, to be careful. I think attempts are being made to flush him/her out, and with eleven of us left of which only two killers remain, we need you around more than ever....

I thoroughly agree. I do not, repeat not, want the Seer to come forward unless they have identified both of our remaining beasts. However, I do have some thoughts as to who the Seer might be and will be scanning certain Villager's posts very carefully for some guidance.

So today we could do a lot worse than lynch Lmp.

We could do a lot better, though.

LMP as Cobbler is beginning to make a lot of sense, Lalaith. Your reasoning looks sound to me and I am now beginning to suspect you a lot less than I did previously.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I'm with SpM on this one- let's try to lynch the wolf tonight and concentrate on bearish behaviour later on. At the moment I do have a pretty good idea of who is the bear, but the wolf I am not so sure of. I think that Laitaine, however, is our biggest suspect at the moment. However, now that we know that Gil was a werewolf, we know that the werewolves were clearly willing to take some pretty considerable and frankly brazen risks to try and win this one, which means that some people who hadn't originally featured in my thinking are now creaping their way in.

As a little extra, lmp, I want you to know that I am not satisfied with the explanations you have given for the criticisms you made of me way back when (no really, when was that? I shall have to check!) and I will confront you on that soon, but not today: today I have other business.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by SpM

I suspect dancing spawn too but I cannot be anything like certain and most certainly would not vote for her without giving her the opportunity to speak.

Thanks, that's very generous of you.
Well, my vote for Mith is suspicious because I voted a wolf with the majority and my vote for lmp is supicious because I didn't vote a wolf with the majority. Make your minds, good people.

The Seer has done great job hiding his/her role. I trust the Seer's own deliberative ability to decide when to step forth. Anyway, the Seer is welcome to dream of me because I have nothing to hide.

I'll go now back to read what everybody has said during these last days. I just wanted to let you know that I'm here in case you want to start accusing me.

[Gurthang]

LMP, after going back and reading through you posts, I am now much less convinced that you are the werewolf or the werebear. But I am becoming increasingly suspicious that you are the cobbler.

One thing I have noticed is that you doubt your own ability to analyze and deduct, yet you said that you know who the Seer is because they have not been subtle enough. If true, you are obviously, and thankfully, smarter than the werecreatures because our Seer is still alive.

I'm going to look over the voting, and try to make a table out of it so it will be easier to read. I don't know if that will work, but...