Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Lalaith]

Dying words of Finduilas....kind of....

[Lalaith]

Oh, and I realised I'd been mistaken for the Seer, I was glad I died in a good cause.

Once an innocent Villager is under sustained suspicion, it is very difficult to have much of an influence over what happens

Tell me about it, SaucepanMan.

[wilwarin538]

Dying words of Finduilas....kind of....

A yes, of course. Silly me.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Tell me about it, SaucepanMan.

Well, my suspicions of you did lessen. And I had half a mind to you possibly being the Seer. Despite in being "in character", the reference in your first post to foresight got me thinking (always a dangerous thing ... ).

Well, I have assembled some edited highlights of my copious notes. Some of the comments are rather amusing with the benefit of hindsight, so I thought that I'd share them. Italicised comments have been added ex post facto.

Day 1

#1 Gurthang defends Werewolves - but just ‘in character’ comments. Or intentionally acting suspiciously? Cobbler?
#9 lmp votes hastily for Gurthang. Perhaps he cannot post again this Day. But why then just not vote?
#14 Enca is antagonistic - intentionally suspicious - Cobbler?
#26 Mithalwen defends her forced voting pattern rather too forcefully, given what I said.

Day 2

#84 Lalaith asks whether the Seer can identify the Bear (answer – yes) – might she be the Seer? Or the Bear? (That comment got me thinking about Lalaith being the Seer too.)
#94 Gil-Galad does little to defend himself – strange if he is a Wolf. Cobbler?
#110 CaptainofDespair agrees that Laitaine may be the Bear. Bearish behaviour to accuse many? And to jump on the suggestion that somoen else may be the Bear? (That was what started me on the CaptainofDespair wild goose-chase!)
#128 CaptainofDespair - “Go ahead and lynch me - you’ll be sorry”. Another 2 will die - could be the Ranger (if not the Bear). (Yes, he was the Ranger you idiot!)
#134 Durelin supports SpM’s theory on CoD being Bear (arrgh! - perhaps she is!!).
#138 COD votes for SPM - confirms my suspicions - jumps on SamwiseGamgee’s suspicion and a knee-jerk against my voicing suspicion of him.
#150 Desperate defence by CoD? Now openly suggesting that he is gifted. Maybe he is - if so, he’s a goner tonight.
#160 Durelin votes for SpM for fitting his own noted likely pattern of Bear behaviour! (This made me chuckle.)

Night 3 Hunter reasoning

Likely targets:

Lalaith – difficulty is, she just may be the Seer. She talks of having foresight (her character possibly offering good cover for her secret role). Question re Bear/Seer. Or she could be a Shirriff with Laitaine.
Laitaine – her Day 1 voting and mild defence of Mithalwen is a cause for concern. And she would be a neat fit with Lalaith for a Wolvish pair.
Durelin – lot of accusations against her. Could that be the Wolves, setting her up for a fall? If she’s a Wolf, they are unlikely to kill me tonight – too obvious. But if not, they may kill me to frame her. She may be the Bear, though.
Gil-Galad – I’m now pretty sure that he’s either the Cobbler or simply a confused but innocent Villager. (Doh!)

The other possibility is a Firefoot/arcticstorm pairing “flying under the radar”. Articstorm makes lots of accusations, but rarely backs them up. The only time he did was his accusation of Laitaine as a Bear. But why would they have voiced such suspicion of Mithalwen on the first Day? There was just too much other suspicion around her at that time. They would have had to have been very bold Wolves. They are more likely to be the Shirriffs. (Quite proud of that spot.)

Increasingly suspicious of LMP as the Bear. But he might be the Seer …

Day 3

#194 Arcticstorm suspects Gil-Galad and Durelin of Wolvery and thinks LMP may be the Bear (a good analysis to reach that conclusion). He may be the Bear diverting suspicion, but I tend to think that he’s the remaining Shirriff.
#207 Dancing spawn points at Durelin and Lalaith and airs a few ideas – but she is really saying very little. Dang that girl! She’s making me more suspicious of her with every post. ( This was quite frustrating, because I really wanted to believe her innocent.)
#211 LMP pooh poohs SpM’s “Werebear” analysis and suggests concentrating on the Wolves (as well he might …). Mildly hints at SpM being the Bear while also saying he believes me innocent.
#216 Boromir88 suggests not pointing out “Wolfish” or “Bearish” behaviour. He suggest that he has other motives in his “diversionary” posts. Does he recognise me as the Hunter? Or is he trying to protect the Seer? Or is it all bluff? (No, he was the Seer. )
#228 arcticstorm reveals himself as the other Shirriff. Hurrah! I got something right at last!
#237 G-G wonders whether he might be being framed. He probably is. Actually, looking at who has accused him today - probably not. Maybe he is just a “guileless Wolf” as LMP put it.
#242 SamwiseGamgee suggest lynching arcticstormn to deny the Wolves a safe kill!!!! ‘Tis a silly plan. We lose two innocents for the price of one. Thankfully, there follow some posts rejecting it. (Sorry Samwise.)
#253 Durelin votes for Boromir88 as either Wolf or Bear. (Doh! He’s so not a Wolf.) (But then, she was the Cobbler.)
#257 SamwiseGamgee suggests that arcticstorm will look guilty if he survives the Night. Now that’s just wrong-headed. And giving the lycanthropes ideas. (Sorry again, Samwise. )

Night 4 Hunter thoughts

On Night 4, I put into effect my soon to be patented Wolf-tracking system, rather a crude method which involved listing everything that pointed toward guilt, everything that pointed towards innocence, weighting them and the tallying the scores. I concentrated on Durelin, Lalaith, Laitaine, dancing spawn and LMP, my main suspects at that point. The scores worked out at:

Durelin: 3
Lalaith: 3
Laitaine: 12
Dancing Spawn: 8
LMP: 6

So, while undoubtedly crude, it actually proved pretty useful.

Hunter victim:

Either Laitaine or dancing spawn – probably go for Laitaine on basis dancing spawn should be questioned tomorrow if Boromir88 does not clear her.

Day 4

#275 LMP posts quickly with one he prepared earlier. Points at dancing spawn and Nonnacedak as the Wolf and Lalaith and dancing spawn as the Bear. Votes for dancing spawn. He’s all over the place. (Sorry, LMP.)
#281 Gurthang suggests that LMP may be the Cobbler. He may be right. A Bear probably wouldn’t say that of the prime Bear suspect. (Well actually, you old fool, he turned out to be the Bear ...)
#283 LMP stoutly defends. He’s being much too defensive here. If he is the Cobbler, perhaps he hopes to gain today’s votes.
#296 Dancing spawn also suspects LMP as the Cobbler, but is saying very little else!!! I wish that she (or the Seer) would convince me of her innocence. (Unfortunately, no one ever did.)
#299 LMP rants about how he's innocent, everything he says is leading us the wrong way and how we might as well vote for him, though he's apparently not the Cobbler. (This one gets my vote for best post of the game.)

Day 5

#360 Boromir88 is not too worried about Nonnacedak. Hmm - is that a hint? (Yes it was. Why didn't you pick up on it you dolt?)
#361 Menel votes for SamwiseGamgee. Why? He has not mentioned him before as ye suspecte.
#366 Durelin votes for The Saucepan Man. Foolish girl. Probably not the Bear. (Not so foolish, given her role.)
#372 LMP reckons Nonnacedak is the Cobbler. That’s just ludicrous. (Well ... it was.)

Night 6 Hunter reasoning

Well, either I go for Meneltarmacil or LMP, and hope whoever I go for, if the Bear, takes a punt on trying to kill me. Or I bank on the fact that neither Menel nor LMP, if either is the Bear, will dare attack me and go for someone else.

But who?

Well, I have gone for SamwiseGamgee for his uncharacteristically late vote when he was in the frame. Wouldn’t it be great if he was the Bear and tried to take the opportunity to knock me off to-Night …? (Yes, it would have been great. But it was not to be.)

It’s not much but, other than Menel and LMP, it’s the best I’ve got.

Oh well, let’s see …

Day 6

#381 Boromir88 is looking for a quiet Bear and names Gurthang. (So why didn't you listen to him? You thought he might be the Seer, didn't you!!??)
#384 Gurthang suspects Boromir88 for his vote yester-Day. Suggests a mass lynching presided over by the Cobbler.
#385 SpM points out that the Cobbler is unlikely to co-operate. Notes that he could preside over a mass lynching – they must know I’m the Hunter by now, surely? (Seems only the Wolves had picked up on that.)
#386 Durelin wants to lynch SpM or Boromir88. Why? Surely she’s the Cobbler. Just look at her record on voting for Wolves. (At last, I got something else right.)
#388 Boromir88 drops his hints again. Bold Bear strategy? Seer? Or something else? Suspects Gurthang (but mildly - based on Day 1 and subsequent appearance of innocence) and Menel (ref to SpM’s reasoning).
#396 Durelin owns up to being the Cobbler. Which means, of course, she could be the Bear … Aiiiieeeeeeee!!!! (Paranoia is a dreadful thing.)
#412 Boromir88 is the Seer (he’s very unlikely to be the Bear bluffing). (But you still thought he might be, didn't you ...?)

[Oddwen]

Aye, Wilwa, 'twas a Findulias mention. I was rather disappointed, I didn't get (or forgot) to use this quote:

Originally Posted by Oddwen's list of Death

'Hail Gurthang! No lord or loyalty dost thou know, save the hand that wieldeth thee. From no blood wilt thou shrink. Wilt thou therefore take Mormegil, wilt thou slay me swiftly?
'Yea, I will drink thy blood gladly, that so I may forget the blood of Thisguy, and the blood of the Ranger slain unjustly. I will slay thee swiftly.'

I was scouring the Silm for mentions of Mormegil and Gurthang especially...there were a couple of good Wolvish scenarios in "Of Beren & Luthien" but I had them figured for Nilp Fegalund and he didn't play.

Man...going back on my list of possible deaths, I only used one. Couple were good, too.

Morm - after the roles were drawn (You can thank my sister Oliphaunts_Rule for doing the drawings, folks), I drew for the Cursed Villager out of curiosity and it would have been YOU. After the warnings I received about your charisma from several people, I was totally wierded out.

Slightly ironic...the only person CoD the Ranger protected was Gurthang...

Originally Posted by Lé Hunter

As Oddie can testify, I generally bored her silly with my theorising when PM'ing her with my Nightly Hunting targets.

I wasn't bored...I was *highly* entertained to watch you hunt Innocents... In fact, many of you were highly entertaining.

Originally Posted by The Same Person

I was quite chuffed to be the one to light Gil-Galad's pyre, even though I did not vote for him.

Well...part of that was your role, and the other part was this cartoon. I was going for a homestarrunner.com theme, and this just fit so well.

This was fun! But I'm going to be sleeping in for a few weeks now!

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well, we did it! In my grace I hereby forgive all you who doubted me, though I'll admit that your doubts weren't without reason. My suggesting that we lynch articstorm was crazy, but I'd been up nearly 48hrs at that point and my mind was somewhere I don't want to go again! And I also know my late vote on Day 5 was sus, but I sure didn't want to go voting early when it was clear that suspicions were coming my way.

I think you must all have noticed that I really counted heavily on SpM in the game. I had a few early doubts, which were pretty much synchronised with boromir88's regarding him. I don't know. It was Eomer of the Rohirrim who once said of Saucepan Man:

He's just so clever you don't know what to do!

That was kinda how I felt, so I just decided to trust him. (Don't go looking for that quote on the Downs, by the way- it's an old one you're very unlikely to find.)

Thanks must also go to boromir88. I did cotton on to your seerish nature early- you played it as I had planned to had I got the role- but obviously didn't want to say anything and then when you revealled yourself I saw no profit in saying I had thought so. (Just so this doesn't sound like shameless self-promotion, I had no idea SpM was the hunter!) Your hints were helpful, and as I said, I don't blame you for suspecting me. Distrust is the name of the game. Well, actually, it's Werewolf, but you get the idea.

An honourable mention also to Gurthang. As I said, I rue that missed kill on day 1. Nonetheless, to survive so long is a great feat. Respect.

So, well done to everyone. Fun has been had by all, I hope.