Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[Kath]

Oh this is getting so confusing! I can barely remember who's alive let alone who hasn't posted yet! I'm going to ignore accusations coming my way unless there is something I feel I should respond to because I have been thought of as suspicious from very early on and if I haven't proved my innocence to people by now I doubt it's going to happen.

So, quick analysis of people:
Folwren - Still not entirely sure about her. That sudden defence yesterDay gave me pause for thought and though she has explained her reasons for that, well I just don't entirely trust her. I suppose my new suspicion regarding Shelob is going to give her cause to suspect me as well.

Shelob - I have become suspicious of her recently thanks to Menel's comment on her bandwagoning, but then it seems silly to agree with the opinion of someone I so deeply suspect. Therefore Menel will stay top of my list but only if he is proved an innocent will I think Shelob is innocent.

Holbytlass - I have been accused of being in some kind of partnership with her because I haven't mentioned her much. But then, I haven't suspected her so far. She says she'll post again with more thoughts and I'll think more about her after that. But saying that, I wanted to wait for something more susbstantial yesterday and it never arrived. I would like some more from her if possible.

Meneltarmacil - I'm sorry Menel but I just don't trust you. You can say I took some lighthearted comments too far and that you have explained your innocence but you are still wolvish to me.

WaynetheGoblin - Well we have heard little from him and he missed the voting though wilwa has explained that. We all gave him the benefit of the doubt for being a newbie but I think we need to hear a deal more from him soon otherwise I am going to have to go against my own advice and become suspicious of him because he has barely said anything.

wilwarin538 - I can't get any feeling on her. While I don't feel suspicious of her I am wary of thinking of her as an innocent. The thing is that while she suspects me she also agrees with a lot of what I say (if not consciously). Her suspect list is similar to mine.

Durelin - Well we have heard nothing from her today so again, I'll wait to pass judgement.

Kath - Well at least you all know I'm not the Bear now! An innocent in my view.

Cailín - We have heard a lot from her today and that was nice. The very long post on Day 1's voting though confused me completely! But I don't think she's guilty of anything aside from making me read a really long post when I wasn't that awake.

Nilpaurion Felagund - An innocent Shirriff, surprisingly not dead yet.

Gil-Galad - We really have not heard much from him, and everything he has posted has been next to useless. He agrees with whatever the current theory is and votes for whoever the current suspect is (that I recall). If we don't hear something pretty susbstantial from him today he is going to go on my susect list.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I thank wilwa for explaining wht happend yesterday. My suspect list is MENEL SHELOB AND GIL.

[WaynetheGoblin]

This is what I think. Top suspect SHELOB GIL AND MENEL. Secondary suspects KATH AND CAILIN. Dont knows DURLIN AND WILWA . Probly not a wolf FOLWERN. Defently not a wolf NILP AND WAYNETHEGOBLIN.

[Gil-Galad]

Cailin is on my suspect list... he/she has stated her/himself as innocent and tried to bring a focus on Folwren

also, Kath, i didn't join in the current thoery, i got suspicous of Saucey because of his helpfulness to the village and that can be a great cover for a wolf, your comment on me isn't truthful, maybe your a wolf trying to get me into trouble? also school started so don't expect me too post every hour, i had Kitanna and saucey as my suspects, nobody else did and when i voted for them, nobody else did

[Meneltarmacil]

Let's see here...

As I've said before, Gil-Galad is on my suspect list. He's been very quiet and voted for Saucepan yesterDay. One thing that really strikes me as odd is that he is quite loud in his defense of himself, though his vote really has not generated nearly as much suspicion as that of others who voted for innocents, and these others haven't been as loud as Gil has in their defense. Yet I can excuse him for now. I'll most likely vote for Kath or Shelob today, probably Kath as she seems to recently be having trouble explaining why she doesn't trust me.

My list of suspects will be coming soon.

[Folwren]

Today's been very confusing for me, I must say. I'm glad more people are talking, but I've been working (and working hard at that) all day and it's been hard to keep up. There have been a lot of accusation. Cailin has said a lot, that's great, and a few others have said a considerable amoun.

Wayne, please express why you think the people you listed are guilty.

Durelin and Wilwarin, why do you suspect me?

And, everybody, I've noticed that a lot of people are suspecting Kath. I had a lot of doubt of her two days ago, and some yesterday, but even less today. The more I think about the matter, the more I think it would be a very, very dangerous and an extremely bad thing to get her lynched. A very bad thing.

My suspects...none right now for certain. I have a lot of thinking to do before I make a list and explain why.

-- Folwren

[Kath]

i had Kitanna and saucey as my suspects, nobody else did and when i voted for them, nobody else did

So Gil you voted for different people, I apologise I was going from memory. So why does that statement make me really suspicious of you? It's weird, I'm thinking, oh so he knew who two innocents were, that means he must be a wolf. Which is a bit of a silly thing to think but then, why? You could be a wolf with this inside knowledge.

Oh and Menel I am still absolutely sure why I think you are suspicious, for the exact same reasons I did two days ago. You will be my vote again today I should think unless I have a sudden revelation about you being inncocent - unlikely.

My suspect list at the moment is going:
Menel
Gil
Folwren

They are the most suspicious to me at the moment but I am waiting to hear from Holby and Durelin before I decide whether they need to go in there anywhere.

[Cailín]

I'm slightly annoyed we have not heard from Shelob yet, since she is so high on my suspect list right now.

Hmm more posts to analyze. First of all, Gil's brain seems a bit muddled. He accuses me (I'm a she, by the way) of bringing focus to Folwren, while I think I had far more to say about Kath, Shelob, Wayne and some others. It's all very suspicious.

Folwren - I more or less agree about lynching Kath. Though I still have doubts about her, it's not worth the risk today. She is one of the most helpful people around now and I don't want this village to become more silent than it already is.

Wilwa is slowly growing more and more suspicious in my mind. Somehow, her first post today triggered something, though I am not sure what it is yet.

If Wayne is a wolf, he's likely to kill himself in his confusion. He may live for now.

Right now, I'm leaning towards voting Shelob or Gil, whose votes have been so random they can't be random. Though Kath and Holby are still lingering somewhere in my mind in the shapes of snarly, hairy things - right now, I feel we might still need them. And they may be innocent.

Kath - sorry for making you read that very, very long post. I'm glad I only had to write it.

[Shelob]

Firstly,

Originally Posted by Cailín

You may want to trust them, because they appear to make sense while you have no idea what's going on. But reasoning seems to be the best mask to hide behind during these perilous days and nights.

Cailín seems to warn us off trusting those who "appear to make sense" because that's a good mask for the wolves to hide behind. Yet today more than any other day Cailín speaks. The past few days she's spoken but as the game has progressed she has seemingly become more and more outspoken, a fact which is strange only because the ammount she speaks seems to be inversely related to the number of 'loud people' remaining.

This boarders on being a direct accusation of Cailín, but think about it. Slowly as the 'loud people' we're all used to listening to and arguing/agreeing with are killed off Cailín slips herself nicely into their old places. Finally when they're all gone she warns us off trusting people who seem to make sense because it's likely they're wolves hiding behind usefull, sensical suggestions while at the same time making sense and useful, sensical suggestions.

And you all trust her.

Only Gil-Galad has suggested that Cailín is suspicious and that was because she said she was "innocent and tried to bring a focus on Folwren", something which (given Folwren's vote for Azaelia yesterday) is not particularly suspicious. True a wolf would likely try to sway us towards a suspicious looking villager, but so would any villager who found that person significantly suspicious looking.


To address Menel (for reasons other than Kath's stated), I still think he's a wolf. Yes, you could argue that if he is a wolf he's behaving in an amazingly risky fashon, and that because he's behaving thusly he's not a werewolf. But I think you're wrong. Never yet has there been enough suspicion on Menel for him to be seriously facing a lynching, if he's a wolf he must have realized this. The next step would be to assume that if you're not really in danger voting as if you were in danger (ie: to save your own skin) would guarantee that the next DAY you did draw a dangerous amount of attention. Villagers though would, in their clear consciousness, not see the need for voting so that their vote didn't look suspicious. For a villager the point is to vote so as to lynch those most likely to be wolves, not to vote so that their voting record looks innocent.


As it is I find both of them to be very suspicious right now. As to whom else could be a wolf, I'm not sure. I have a strong inclination to think that we should be fearing those quiet people like Wayne and Gil who have basically sat back and allowed the villagers to do the wolves work for them, somehow I just feel that only the quiet benefit from killing off the loud--and allowing the remaining talkers to lynch themselves.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Glirdan, was it your intention to act all close with morm and then to kill him suddenly? It sounds like a very bold plan for a bear.

[Glirdan]

Glirdan, was it your intention to act all close with morm and then to kill him suddenly? It sounds like a very bold plan for a bear.

From the start of Day 2, I said to myself that I had to get someone completely unsuspected to cast suspicion off of myself and by unsuspected I mean no one would think that I would go after him because of the "bond" we had. I wasn't thinking of morm right from the start. About half way throught the Day, I decided to get rid of morm because he was the one I was acting close with and I thought no one would have suspected me. Obviously, it didn't quite work. I was a little over dramatic which was probably why more suspicion was cast on me.

Now I want to know why no one suspected me of being the bear, but always the wolf. Anybody care to answer?

[Shelob]

*Non-Wolves: Meneltarmacil, Shelob, wilwarin.

I figured we had you confused to no end...I hadn't realized we were doing that well.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now I want to know why no one suspected me of being the bear, but always the wolf. Anybody care to answer?

Probably because the wolves are more likely to slip up. A wolf has to try and not only protect themselves from suspicion but also to make sure that they're protecting their fellow wolves. A bear only has themselves to protect so it's somewhat easier for them, they don't have to worry about slidding suspicion of themselves and onto their friends.