Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I see that The Saucepan Man has just made the point that I was beginning to formulate. Azaelia and wilwa's 'nothing' posts are precisely what I'd expect from: a) Bumbling newbies, or b) Insincere wolves. Now, word on the street is that the two of them have had previous experience in fighting wolves (at least that's what Ol' Bluetooth down in the woods told me – you may not have seen him but he's a decent fellow; I play cards with him at times).

Strange contributions from the two.

Formendacil's behaviour is also worrying. He casts suspicion on two villagers and then votes for another, completely at random. I don't like random voting.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

And who have we seen being chummy so far more than The Saucepan Man and Perky... Indeed, they have been not only chummy, but also rather flippant about the whole affair, going on about smokes and pipeweed, which is really a most disgusting habit, and dangerous to one' health, to boot. Collusion? Perhaps...

So, Formendacil, you claim suspicion of Saucepan and Perky, and yet you voted for Marcolie...Why not vote for those you already have suspicion of? Not, trying to bandwagon, just trying to get answers from what is unclear (to me at least.)

To Perky, I didn't wish to make comments against the birds! Actually, I hadn't even made that connection...

[Shelob]

Sorry to come somewhat late, couldn't be helped.

First off I'm not so sure if we can form a list of criteria and say "wolves will match this pattern", some wolves will but as soon as we define the list the smart one's will be sure not to. However to the point that the list says "Everyone is suspicious" it works, regardless.


Secondly, in regard to the list, "good reasons". Good reasons, indeed reasons of any kind, are somewhat hard to come by on the first day...right now I'm rereading and rereading looking for (probably) non-existant clues. After today though we'll have more to go on and so "good reasons" shall (hopefully) become more common.

For myself though, I can't come up with anything concrete. I'm reading posts and getting feelings, suspicions, about people just from the tone of their posts. For where that leads me now I would suspect everyone. From such a wide and varied list though I would pinpoint The Perky Ent, Mormegil, and Gil-Galad as being currently above the rest.

Mormegil I have little reason to suspect, but his intitial and almost over-reaction to the fate of Holby's birds has a strange feel to it. For Perky it is that he has said a lot and yet said a rather small amount. Not to say he's being unhelpful, some of what he says holds merit, some of it though seems to be naught but idle chatter.

For Gil-Galad, like Wilwarin and Azaelia he has posted little and all of it unhelpful...

and now I must escape...or be all but literally lynched (ah parents, the horror, the horror)...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shelob

First off I'm not so sure if we can form a list of criteria and say "wolves will match this pattern" ...

My purpose in setting out my criteria was not so much to identify a pattern of Wolfish behaviour, but to encourage them to talk and (when the time comes) to vote. If they don't talk and vote, we are going to have a very hard time spotting them. So, having set out my criteria, I will have no hesitation in voting for those that I do not think are contributing sufficiently. Even if they turn out not to be Wolves, I would rather see the back of them than innocent Villagers who are contributing to the debate. Particularly when there is very little in the way of other evidence to go on.

Having said that, you are right, Shelob, to point out that we should be wary of those who say much but tell us little.

Originally Posted by Shelob

Good reasons, indeed reasons of any kind, are somewhat hard to come by on the first day...

True. But any reasoning, even gut instinct, is better than nothing because it gives us something that we can possibly work with.

Before the voting gets underway in earnest, I would just like to point out that it is in the Villagers' interests (and against the Wolves' interests) to keep the voting spread out as much as possible. Wolves love bandwaggons, because they can hide in them. If the voting is spread out, then it makes it more difficult for them to hide and they might be forced into a bold move to save one of their furry chums.

That doesn't mean that you should vote for someone that you have little suspicion of. But just bear it in mind when the time comes to vote. And keep an eye on how the voting progresses. There is no danger of a mass lynching, but it is worth taking into account who might buy it in the event of a tie.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Originally Posted by AbercrombieOfRohan

So, Formendacil, you claim suspicion of Saucepan and Perky, and yet you voted for Marcolie...Why not vote for those you already have suspicion of? Not, trying to bandwagon, just trying to get answers from what is unclear (to me at least.)

I was wondering this too, not relation to the fact that the vote was for me. I really don't see the point of random votes if you have some supisions if you don't mention any reason why not to.

Then again, keping around those strongest players has reason, though it has killed many a village. If we choose this hopefully we don't doom ourselves like I heard they have from visiters before.

Originally Posted by Shelob

First off I'm not so sure if we can form a list of criteria and say "wolves will match this pattern" ...

I feel we could make a stronger statement and say if we made such a statement the wolves would try to avoid it stronger.

Most important now in the beginning is getting all involved so we have information to go on. If there are those who aren't participating its easier for the wolves to hide like this. Simarilly spreading out votes and avoiding bandwagoning now at the beginning at least.

There's not much information at all now, and it is very important to look at what we can, but I know that I am not the person best at first day lists and such. I will try though once I finish editing Chapter 3 of this new book.

[Cailín]

Before the voting gets underway in earnest, I would just like to point out that it is in the Villagers' interests (and against the Wolves' interests) to keep the voting spread out as much as possible. Wolves love bandwaggons, because they can hide in them. If the voting is spread out, then it makes it more difficult for them to hide and they might be forced into a bold move to save one of their furry chums.

Spreading the votes is a very sensible idea, so the voting pattern might tell us something tomorrow. However, it is then also very easy for the wolves to get the one they wish to get killed, really killed without raising much suspicion.

I fear it's almost like it's unavoidable to kill an innocent on day One. Most depressing... I think it would be helpful to not head into one or even two or three particular directions early on. If the wolves have no idea where the village is heading, they will be unable to get any control over it. Voicing suspicions is good, making early and rash decisions about who's not going to survive this day is only helpful to the wolves.

--

Anyway, I suppose it's time to start voicing suspicions. The Perky Ent, for example, is a name I'm hearing a lot toDay, especially in relation to The Saucepan Man. Right now, I don't think them guilty of anything, except something in relation to possibly illegal smoking substances. I must say Perky seems rather Perky about all this, but then again, he is Perky.

Formendacil... strange vote. But any vote so early in the Day would seem strange - as has been said before - and I really think SpM just scared him by saying he wouldn't trust anyone who failed to vote. Also - I'm very reluctant to vote for someone unable to defend himself. It's too easy.

Wilwarin and Azaelia both only expressed their sentiments so far... Which means I cannot accuse them of anything, which is ever so suspicious.

Shelob I find myself agreeing with, even though she has not said much. I can see where her suspicions come from, but do not necessarily share them.

Eomer and AbercrombieOfRohan both jumped on Formendacil's case, after Saucepan Man mentioned his suspicions of him. Are they werewolves trying to subtly lead the village into lynching an innocent? Probably not, but I do find it worth mentioning.

Márcolië Lamen, oh! you are cool, most definitely. Anyone slightly more foolish would have started defending him or herself after the vote, but you know and trust we will all see it as something completely random and meaningless. You are smart without being in danger and your thoughts seem to be put into words most carefully. Not that they're very helpful - but you stay in the picture. I will be watching you (but in a good, friendly not necessarily involving nasty gallows sort of way, for you are not yet in my top suspects list).

The others I'm still trying to get some more on. I see I have not voiced any real suspicions, probably because I don't have any. It's terrible to feel you have to distrust your fellow villagers...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You must admit though, Cailín, that Formendacil has a case worth jumping on.

What do you mean by the strategy of spreading the votes being

'very easy for the wolves to get the one they wish to get killed, really killed without raising much suspicion'

I don't quite follow you. If they really want to get a particular person killed then they will likely need to band together and vote for the same person, which would be very brave indeed; not to mention (or, in fact, to mention) highly suspicious – especially if they all come in near the end of the day to do it.

[Cailín]

That would be right, Eomer, if we did not spread the votes. If a lot of different people have - let's say - two votes, because we are trying to spread them, it would just take one wolf-vote, not three, to condemn someone they wish to get rid of - someone they suspect of being a gifted, perhaps. Though I admit this would be a highly unlikely situation today, since I don't think the wolves are gunning for anyone in particular just yet. But that's what I meant.

You must admit though, Cailín, that Formendacil has a case worth jumping on.

Yes. As does everyone on our little island right now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailin

If a lot of different people have - let's say - two votes, because we are trying to spread them, it would just take one wolf-vote, not three, to condemn someone they wish to get rid of - someone they suspect of being a gifted, perhaps.

That would be a very risky thing for them to do in such a situation. Which is one of the reasons why it's a good idea to spread the votes around. If we have to lose an innocent (which, let's face it, is the likely outcome to-Day), then it will be pill less bitter to swallow if it helps lead us to a Wolf.

I'm beginning to form some useful impressions here, but I'm not going to share them until I see how things develop.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah, I see what you mean, Cailín. And about that last comment – suspicious little minx, are you? You won't find many friends with that attitude, young lady.

After some thought I now believe that Formendacil is trying out a strategy. I say this because I am fully aware how intelligent the man is, and I don't think he would do anything carelessly (though his vote may seem careless). I'll explain this in more detail later; those who understand this potential strategy will also understand why I can't name it right now.

(And don't bother pointing out the irony of me myself falling for it earlier; rest assured, I am already aware that it makes me look bad ).

[mormegil]

Cailin speaks wisdom when it comes to Formendacil

Formendacil... strange vote. But any vote so early in the Day would seem strange - as has been said before - and I really think SpM just scared him by saying he wouldn't trust anyone who failed to vote. Also - I'm very reluctant to vote for someone unable to defend himself. It's too easy.

and

Yes. As does everyone on our little island right now

I see Formendacil's vote as, what he said it to be, an attempt to fulfill his civic duty even though he really had little to go on he bravely voted. This is not a defense of him per se, rather an attack against those who wantonly accuse somebody for casting a random vote on day one. The most important part of what Formendacil said was this

However, although I continue to have my suspicions about Saucie and Perky, I will cast my stone in another direction, fulfilling my civic duty and thus setting an example to the good citizens.

For reasons that really don't exist, I randomly accuse:

He told us about his suspicions and admitted it to be random. I by no means think him innocent yet I think we should be careful to not get rid of him today based solely on this.

I would like Wilwarin to answer my little theory on her.

[Boromir88]

Did somebody call for the deprogrammer? Perky losing his mind? Perhaps everyone is losing their mind. If anyone needs help with this tramatic experience I can make everyone forget in a few 20 minutes, just call me on over.

To the business at hand, as I said I would have very little time today, and this will be the last chance of me being on for today, so I'll have to make my decision.

Reading through the posts here I'm following the logic used against Formendacil and Azaelia.

Because she didn't even try to set tongues wagging in her sole post; all she did was cry and try to keep as far away from the suspicion list as possible whilst at the same time making herself visible.~Eomer

That indeed I find suspicious, and who I seem to be most voting for. This would also point towards Wilwarin.

I recognize nothing different in Sauce than I have before, so for now, he's fine with me, though he may be using the strategy to get his wolfishness unnoticed.

Though Formendacil's strategy is odd, quick votes, quick suspicions, I doubt a wolf would be so bold on Day 1 as to attract that much suspicion. I think our wolves are hiding and not saying much.

Also, I encourage you all to have your own brains and think for yourself, not do as the Romans do in Julius Caesar.

With that being said my vote must be casted very soon as I will be gone.

++Wilwarin.

[The Saucepan Man]

Gah! What's with all the nitpicking going on in this Village. Not nice, grooming/bonding monkey-style nitpicking. But nasty, malevolent, Wolfish nitpicking. Eomer constructs entire cases against Cailin and I on the basis of one or two (quite possibly ill-chosen) words among many. And now mormegil seems intent on picking me up on everything that I say.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Not completely accurate.

In what way was I "not completely accurate"? I said that I ended up yester-Day inclined to think Eomer innocent, and that's the truth. I reiterated my reasoning in this regard first thing to-Day when explaining to Boro why his vote for me yester-Day made me suspect him.

My suspicions of Eomer were actually aroused once again when I reviewed the thread again over-Night (for reasons which I remain reluctant to explain). I wanted to be sure, so I held off outlining my renewed concerns. Subsequent events confirmed Eomer's guilt in my mind.

Originally Posted by Eomer

It's absolutely genius of The Saucepan Man to do exactly what I did (say that Formendacil is suspicious and then think better of it) and manage to criticise me for doing it.

The difference is, my furry fiend, that I did so in one and the same post. I will remind you exactly of what I said:

Originally Posted by me

Of course, going by my own criteria, Formendacil is looking the most suspicious at present. He outlines suspicions against two Villagers which are tenuous at best (and I would say as much even if I was not one of those that he suspects), and then votes for someone completely different without any shred of an explanation. Yet I am somewhat disinclined to vote for him solely on the basis of that alone when he is not present to explain himself further. He had to vote early and any vote that early on is going to be more or less randomly picked.

In my view, a perfectly reasonable comment at that time. I made clear that I was unlikely to be voting for him in circumstances where he was genuinely forced into making an early vote (if he was to vote at all) and was not present to respond.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'm actually quite enjoying this.

I most certainly am not. If I die, the village has to find a Wolf tomorrow, and then has to find three more in short order. And if you die, we still have three more Wolves to find. It does not surprise me that you are the more cheerful of the two of us.