Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[Márcolië Lamen]

Originally Posted by AbercrombieOfRohan

So, Formendacil, you claim suspicion of Saucepan and Perky, and yet you voted for Marcolie...Why not vote for those you already have suspicion of? Not, trying to bandwagon, just trying to get answers from what is unclear (to me at least.)

I was wondering this too, not relation to the fact that the vote was for me. I really don't see the point of random votes if you have some supisions if you don't mention any reason why not to.

Then again, keping around those strongest players has reason, though it has killed many a village. If we choose this hopefully we don't doom ourselves like I heard they have from visiters before.

Originally Posted by Shelob

First off I'm not so sure if we can form a list of criteria and say "wolves will match this pattern" ...

I feel we could make a stronger statement and say if we made such a statement the wolves would try to avoid it stronger.

Most important now in the beginning is getting all involved so we have information to go on. If there are those who aren't participating its easier for the wolves to hide like this. Simarilly spreading out votes and avoiding bandwagoning now at the beginning at least.

There's not much information at all now, and it is very important to look at what we can, but I know that I am not the person best at first day lists and such. I will try though once I finish editing Chapter 3 of this new book.

[Cailín]

Before the voting gets underway in earnest, I would just like to point out that it is in the Villagers' interests (and against the Wolves' interests) to keep the voting spread out as much as possible. Wolves love bandwaggons, because they can hide in them. If the voting is spread out, then it makes it more difficult for them to hide and they might be forced into a bold move to save one of their furry chums.

Spreading the votes is a very sensible idea, so the voting pattern might tell us something tomorrow. However, it is then also very easy for the wolves to get the one they wish to get killed, really killed without raising much suspicion.

I fear it's almost like it's unavoidable to kill an innocent on day One. Most depressing... I think it would be helpful to not head into one or even two or three particular directions early on. If the wolves have no idea where the village is heading, they will be unable to get any control over it. Voicing suspicions is good, making early and rash decisions about who's not going to survive this day is only helpful to the wolves.

--

Anyway, I suppose it's time to start voicing suspicions. The Perky Ent, for example, is a name I'm hearing a lot toDay, especially in relation to The Saucepan Man. Right now, I don't think them guilty of anything, except something in relation to possibly illegal smoking substances. I must say Perky seems rather Perky about all this, but then again, he is Perky.

Formendacil... strange vote. But any vote so early in the Day would seem strange - as has been said before - and I really think SpM just scared him by saying he wouldn't trust anyone who failed to vote. Also - I'm very reluctant to vote for someone unable to defend himself. It's too easy.

Wilwarin and Azaelia both only expressed their sentiments so far... Which means I cannot accuse them of anything, which is ever so suspicious.

Shelob I find myself agreeing with, even though she has not said much. I can see where her suspicions come from, but do not necessarily share them.

Eomer and AbercrombieOfRohan both jumped on Formendacil's case, after Saucepan Man mentioned his suspicions of him. Are they werewolves trying to subtly lead the village into lynching an innocent? Probably not, but I do find it worth mentioning.

Márcolië Lamen, oh! you are cool, most definitely. Anyone slightly more foolish would have started defending him or herself after the vote, but you know and trust we will all see it as something completely random and meaningless. You are smart without being in danger and your thoughts seem to be put into words most carefully. Not that they're very helpful - but you stay in the picture. I will be watching you (but in a good, friendly not necessarily involving nasty gallows sort of way, for you are not yet in my top suspects list).

The others I'm still trying to get some more on. I see I have not voiced any real suspicions, probably because I don't have any. It's terrible to feel you have to distrust your fellow villagers...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You must admit though, Cailín, that Formendacil has a case worth jumping on.

What do you mean by the strategy of spreading the votes being

'very easy for the wolves to get the one they wish to get killed, really killed without raising much suspicion'

I don't quite follow you. If they really want to get a particular person killed then they will likely need to band together and vote for the same person, which would be very brave indeed; not to mention (or, in fact, to mention) highly suspicious – especially if they all come in near the end of the day to do it.

[Cailín]

That would be right, Eomer, if we did not spread the votes. If a lot of different people have - let's say - two votes, because we are trying to spread them, it would just take one wolf-vote, not three, to condemn someone they wish to get rid of - someone they suspect of being a gifted, perhaps. Though I admit this would be a highly unlikely situation today, since I don't think the wolves are gunning for anyone in particular just yet. But that's what I meant.

You must admit though, Cailín, that Formendacil has a case worth jumping on.

Yes. As does everyone on our little island right now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailin

If a lot of different people have - let's say - two votes, because we are trying to spread them, it would just take one wolf-vote, not three, to condemn someone they wish to get rid of - someone they suspect of being a gifted, perhaps.

That would be a very risky thing for them to do in such a situation. Which is one of the reasons why it's a good idea to spread the votes around. If we have to lose an innocent (which, let's face it, is the likely outcome to-Day), then it will be pill less bitter to swallow if it helps lead us to a Wolf.

I'm beginning to form some useful impressions here, but I'm not going to share them until I see how things develop.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah, I see what you mean, Cailín. And about that last comment – suspicious little minx, are you? You won't find many friends with that attitude, young lady.

After some thought I now believe that Formendacil is trying out a strategy. I say this because I am fully aware how intelligent the man is, and I don't think he would do anything carelessly (though his vote may seem careless). I'll explain this in more detail later; those who understand this potential strategy will also understand why I can't name it right now.

(And don't bother pointing out the irony of me myself falling for it earlier; rest assured, I am already aware that it makes me look bad ).

[mormegil]

Cailin speaks wisdom when it comes to Formendacil

Formendacil... strange vote. But any vote so early in the Day would seem strange - as has been said before - and I really think SpM just scared him by saying he wouldn't trust anyone who failed to vote. Also - I'm very reluctant to vote for someone unable to defend himself. It's too easy.

and

Yes. As does everyone on our little island right now

I see Formendacil's vote as, what he said it to be, an attempt to fulfill his civic duty even though he really had little to go on he bravely voted. This is not a defense of him per se, rather an attack against those who wantonly accuse somebody for casting a random vote on day one. The most important part of what Formendacil said was this

However, although I continue to have my suspicions about Saucie and Perky, I will cast my stone in another direction, fulfilling my civic duty and thus setting an example to the good citizens.

For reasons that really don't exist, I randomly accuse:

He told us about his suspicions and admitted it to be random. I by no means think him innocent yet I think we should be careful to not get rid of him today based solely on this.

I would like Wilwarin to answer my little theory on her.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The more I consider this [Formendacil's vote] the more it makes sense.

Earlier, Saucepan Man said that he didn't trust those who:

Do not vote or change their minds frequently or without reason.

That's fair enough by my reckoning. But, he also says that he doesn't trust those who:

Do not speak much or make accusations without backing them up with good reasons.

Now fair enough, there's a difference between 'not trusting' and 'having suspicions of'. But I'm not sure I agree with Saucey here. I'd rather trust someone who makes one or two good posts than someone who says a whole lot of nothing. And 'stirring the pot' is absolutely necessary. Whether intentional or not, that's what Formendacil's vote has done (stirred the pot, that is); and I think it could prove to be useful. That is in no way a knock on Márcolië Lamen.

In my opinion, our chief danger is posts of no substance; and I count accusations of any nature to be a substance of sort.

[The Saucepan Man]

Eomer. I had hoped that I had explained all this in post #36. You will see that I also agreed with the point that one or two posts of substance are a lot more useful than a whole lot of nothing.

As for unexplained votes, they do as a rule arouse my suspicion. But, as with all such matters, one must examine them on a case-by-case basis. In Formendacil's case, there are certainly extenuating circumstances. Basically, I think that we can take it for red that he had no option but to vote early, at a stage when there was very little information available. So, he voted randomly and made it absolutely clear that this was what he was doing. No attempt to make up spurious reasons for his vote. I took this into account in commenting earlier on his early vote (post #32).

Originally Posted by Eomer

Whether intentional or not, that's what Formendacil's vote has done (stirred the pot, that is)...

Darn right it has. That was part of what I meant when I said that I was forming some useful impressions. And one such impression involved your reaction to Formendacil's vote, as stated in post #33 and quite forcefully repeated in post #39. You now seem to be backtracking. Any particular reason?

[Márcolië Lamen]

There is probably good in having 'stirred the pot', as long as people don't bandwagon or something against me killing an innocent. It forces others to come and talk. But everyone please don't hold it against me. I know it was random and because of that I couldn't defend myself against reasoning even if it would be worth it...

Everyone help with that and come out and talk. We need it for the good of the village, any substantial post helps us weed out those guilty of slatering our friend Holby


I can't voice suspsions I don't have, and I am suspicious of everyone on our island, well other than myself...
I feel it'd probably be better to not kill off the strongest strategiests because chances are since its so early in the game they're innocents. But be wary watching them still, almost more wary since they may be able to hide if they are wolves better than others.

[Boromir88]

Did somebody call for the deprogrammer? Perky losing his mind? Perhaps everyone is losing their mind. If anyone needs help with this tramatic experience I can make everyone forget in a few 20 minutes, just call me on over.

To the business at hand, as I said I would have very little time today, and this will be the last chance of me being on for today, so I'll have to make my decision.

Reading through the posts here I'm following the logic used against Formendacil and Azaelia.

Because she didn't even try to set tongues wagging in her sole post; all she did was cry and try to keep as far away from the suspicion list as possible whilst at the same time making herself visible.~Eomer

That indeed I find suspicious, and who I seem to be most voting for. This would also point towards Wilwarin.

I recognize nothing different in Sauce than I have before, so for now, he's fine with me, though he may be using the strategy to get his wolfishness unnoticed.

Though Formendacil's strategy is odd, quick votes, quick suspicions, I doubt a wolf would be so bold on Day 1 as to attract that much suspicion. I think our wolves are hiding and not saying much.

Also, I encourage you all to have your own brains and think for yourself, not do as the Romans do in Julius Caesar.

With that being said my vote must be casted very soon as I will be gone.

++Wilwarin.

[wilwarin538]

I would like Wilwarin to answer my little theory on her.

Well your theory is very wrong. I would never want to draw any one in such a condition. I would also never hurt any one for the sake of my sketches.

I also think its unfair for anyone to have voted so early when there could have been no way for me to defend myself(school). The same probably goes for Zali.

If you want my suspicions they are everyone who has voted so far. So Eomer, Boro and Formendacil. All three voted for people who hadn't posted very much, so they were eather random(Formen) or based on almost nothing(Boro, 'Mer).

I will most likely vote for one of them.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

I did not mean to be vehemently accusatory in my post against Formendacil, I was merely questioning his vote. It was (and is) far too early to have definite suspicions, and my questions were asked more rhetorically than anything else.

And so the recap:

Perky, Gilu-Gadi, and Mormegil spoke with the usual somberness towards the death of such a great member.

Saucy posted fourth with this interesting quote:

I don't trust those who don't speak much.
I don't trust those who do not vote.
I don't trust those that make accusations without backing them up with good reasons,
and
I don't trust those who change their mind frequently or without reason.

Now, I think this is kind of an odd (note: not necessarily wolvish) thing to post for two reasons.

1. Saucy says right off the bat which things he suspects in a player. This could aid the wolves, because they immediately know the type of thing a player like Saucepan looks for.

2. In spite of this, I do not not trust Saucepan, because he is too big an asset to the village to lose, but more importantly it just seems a logical step towards weeding out the wolves from the villagers by posting the things that are suspicious.

Back to the recap:

Saucepan and Perky banter about nonsensical things such as pipe-weed and drinks from the tavern. Trivial and harmless, I suspect they are doing nothing more than keeping interest growing and progressing until the blood starts to spill.

Interspersed in this Gilu-Gadi makes an accusation against Alcarillo. I can't decide whether or not Gilu is joking about his accusation and just pointing fingers, because we have little else to go on, or whether he really found something suspicious in Alcarillo's post. Hey Gilu, if you're reading, can you explain if you were being serious?

Originally posted by Perky Ent
If no one has anywhere else to turn, I myself would be intrigued in Alcarillo's defence from Gil-Galad's acusations.

Alcarillo, I too, am curious as to what your defense is, please explain.

Then Mormegil claims that he suspects Wilwa, but seemingly (to me at least) he does this only in jest and is just trying to get things started.

Formendacil claims suspicion of SPM in one of his two posts. Claims that Pan Man's first post is "casting unwanted suspicions at quite possibly innocent villagers?" I disagree, for I think SPM is doing the exact opposite and warning innocent villagers not to act this way. My initial half-hearted suspicion of Formendacil begins.

Perky once again posts with role-playing fluff. Is he trying to appear helpful, while covering up a dark secret? I do not know.

Formendacil returns and casts the first vote for Marcolie. He says that he knows that she is probably innocent, but needs to vote and must accuse someone, even randomly.

Saucepan returns and assuages my worries about him slightly, when he says:

Perky was one of the few people around at the time and I wanted to get the discussion going, as it is only through talking that we will have any hope of catching these fiends.

This was exactly as I had thought, so I felt better about SPM's posts. He also mentions that Wilwa and Azaelia have not made sufficient contribution to the discussion. And he claims suspicion of Formendacil.

Both Eomer and I seemingly "latch on" to SPM's post and suspicion of Formendacil. I know that, at least on my part, I was already slightly, slightly curious about Formendacil's behaviour and was just doing my part as a wondering innocent. I, quite simply, wanted to know what he was up to.

The idea of spreading the votes around as to dissaude a werewolf bandwagon comes up. I most definitively agree with this proposal.

Cailin comes in and posts a "friendly" watchful post on Marcolie.

Second vote of the day from Eomer against Azealia. He warns the village against voting for people just becuase they change their minds and he warns to look to the people who post often and say little.

Boromir enters and posts a vote against Wilwarin for not saying helpful things. He expresses the same sentiments felt by most of the villagers.

Wilwa posts and demands to know why she is being punished for being at school. She says that she is suspicious of those who have voted (Eomer, Boromir and Formendacil.)

From this, what should I think? It appears that SPM is being his usual logical self and I've nothing yet to say against him.

Formendacil's vote while suspicious, is a very risky move for a wolf to make and so I shall not vote for him just yet.

I think the one who tops my list right now is Perky Ent. As both Shelob and I have said, he posts often and says little. This could just be the by-product of the first day and a game that can be fun with a bit of roleplaying, but I still think that he could just be a wolvish fiend floating by.

Forgive the length, I'm just trying to get organised.

[Shelob]

Originally Posted by SPM

My purpose in setting out my criteria was not so much to identify a pattern of Wolfish behaviour, but to encourage them to talk and (when the time comes) to vote. If they don't talk and vote, we are going to have a very hard time spotting them.

Even if they do talk we may have a hard time...but I see what you mean.


For the rest of this, as it stands an early vote tells us little...we can argue about what Formendacil, Eomer or Boromir88 were trying to do with their early votes but until we've all the votes (and their outcome) we can't really look at and for the meaning behind the votes. As it is now they have voted either because they're wolves hoping to start a bandwagon, or they simply have to due to time. Their votes have probably all been different in order to keep things spread out and to therefore keep down the chances of bandwagon and (hopefully) forcing the wolves into a pressured situation.


For suspicions...I don't know, I'm not inclined to suspect those who voted early simply because they voted early, as I said before until we can see more of the picture we can't see the reasons behind their votes...
Those I had before I still suspect, and those I've not yet named I still suspect (except myself, but then you probably figured that). Of everyone though I am right now most inclined to suspect Gil-Galad, it remains a combination of my initial suspicion and the fact that he has said nothing of real use. He has simply and persistantly (considering his few posts) accused Alcarillo...

[The Saucepan Man]

Gah! What's with all the nitpicking going on in this Village. Not nice, grooming/bonding monkey-style nitpicking. But nasty, malevolent, Wolfish nitpicking. Eomer constructs entire cases against Cailin and I on the basis of one or two (quite possibly ill-chosen) words among many. And now mormegil seems intent on picking me up on everything that I say.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Not completely accurate.

In what way was I "not completely accurate"? I said that I ended up yester-Day inclined to think Eomer innocent, and that's the truth. I reiterated my reasoning in this regard first thing to-Day when explaining to Boro why his vote for me yester-Day made me suspect him.

My suspicions of Eomer were actually aroused once again when I reviewed the thread again over-Night (for reasons which I remain reluctant to explain). I wanted to be sure, so I held off outlining my renewed concerns. Subsequent events confirmed Eomer's guilt in my mind.

Originally Posted by Eomer

It's absolutely genius of The Saucepan Man to do exactly what I did (say that Formendacil is suspicious and then think better of it) and manage to criticise me for doing it.

The difference is, my furry fiend, that I did so in one and the same post. I will remind you exactly of what I said:

Originally Posted by me

Of course, going by my own criteria, Formendacil is looking the most suspicious at present. He outlines suspicions against two Villagers which are tenuous at best (and I would say as much even if I was not one of those that he suspects), and then votes for someone completely different without any shred of an explanation. Yet I am somewhat disinclined to vote for him solely on the basis of that alone when he is not present to explain himself further. He had to vote early and any vote that early on is going to be more or less randomly picked.

In my view, a perfectly reasonable comment at that time. I made clear that I was unlikely to be voting for him in circumstances where he was genuinely forced into making an early vote (if he was to vote at all) and was not present to respond.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'm actually quite enjoying this.

I most certainly am not. If I die, the village has to find a Wolf tomorrow, and then has to find three more in short order. And if you die, we still have three more Wolves to find. It does not surprise me that you are the more cheerful of the two of us.

[Boromir88]

My suspicions of Eomer were actually aroused once again when I reviewed the thread again over-Night (for reasons which I remain reluctant to explain). I wanted to be sure, so I held off outlining my renewed concerns. Subsequent events confirmed Eomer's guilt in my mind.~SpM

I explained that very reason today, which gets me pretty confident in my vote today. If he turns out to be a wolf, then I look at you in a more favorable light Sauce.

I got a bad feeling about Eomer, if you want to know scrounge through posts yesterday and try to find it. I wish to not incriminate anyone.~My second to last post yesterday.

++Eomer

[Formendacil]

Hmm.... I be seeing my name a good deal on today's portion of the thread, but t'is not all in good cheer. Many seem to think that my "quietness" is a mark of evil.

Well, so be it. There is naught that I can do about that. I post in spurts, usually in one or two larger dollops. I cannot remain glued to this situation, even if my death is at stake. There are greater things than Werewolves in this world...

That said, it seems to have, for today, boiled down to a Saucepan/Eomer contest. Which is the Werewolf?

Prior to today, I would have said that Sauce was the more likely Werewolf. His entire mode seemed more aggressive, as well as more threatening to me (the only innocent of whom I am certain). Eomer, on the other hand, seemed like a greater voice of reason- and incidentally less threatening to my own state of health.

However, these positions seem to be reversed today. Today it is Eomer who is playing the aggressive, threatening, possible Wolf, and Sauce who is remaining more quiet.

Of the two, Sauce's voting record is more incriminating. He voted for Perky two days consecutively. That's either the sign of having picked up on a definite mark, or of an innocent villager with an idea of Werewolf on his mind.

Eomer's vote is a bit more difficult to fathom, and I hesitate to make an predictions based on it, at this time.

Of the two, I am inclined to think Eomer the Werewolf at this time.

But I shall save my vote for a later hour.