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#1 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Another quick thought on Eomer.
Generally, it seems to me to be a good Wolfish strategy to hang around 'til near the end of voting in case a vote is needed to save a fellow Wolf or condemn a dangerous innocent. But it makes sense in this game to vote first, given the strategic value of a first vote in the event of a tie. I had thought Eomer's early vote to be too bold and risky a move for a Werewolf. But, if the voting is tight (as I hope and expect it will be) and I receive another vote or two, he has managed to put me in quite a dangerous position. This, taken together with Cailin's thoughts, makes it quite possible that Eomer has given himself the role of sacrificial Wolf and is looking to take as many innocent villagers as possible out with him.
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#2 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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So Cailín thinks it would be ridiculous for Innocent-Eomer to attack The Saucepan Man? Well, quite frankly m'dear, I think you're being ridiculous when you say that. Because:
1) Eomer is an Innocent Villager. 2) Eomer sees Saucepan Man twisting and attacking pretty much everything I say. 3) Eomer thinks this is wolvish; innocents wouldn't be acting in such a way. 4) Eomer thinks he can help the village catch a wolf. 5) Eomer votes for Saucepan Man. Just what on Middle-earth is so 'ridiculous' about that? Please let me know, and I'll try to act in a less moronic fashion. And reasoning for the early vote? I couldn't see when I could get back to the village square to talk with you people. In fact, I'm neglecting some important work right now, so you'll have to excuse me. Good night. And try substituting 'fierce' with 'passionate' when you talk about me. ![]()
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#3 | ||||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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![]() --- Articstorm, I'm sorry, but all these xs and zs and everything are far too confusing. Just tell me who you think is guilty? |
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#4 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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The interplay between Eomer and SaucepanMan is indeed becoming very interesting. And SpM's theory of Eomer being a sacrificial wolf is intriguing though possibly misguided. I hope that all we have here is two misguided passionate people who find guilt in each other. Nothing has changed and to help voting come along I will vote
++ARTICSTORM and would suggest that we keep the voting close between about 4 people or so. 7 seems too many to add any real fear to the wolves. I would like to give a piece of advice for our dear seer: Please dream wisely. I know that you are but I believe that at times we get so caught up in certain people, ie Eomer and SpM currently that we overlook others and those others end up being the wolves. So dream of somebody that may be somewhere in the middle of you suspect list. You don't need to heed my advice but consider it.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#5 |
Shadow of the Past
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Minas Mor-go
Posts: 1,007
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Time for me to vote.
++The Perky Ent A generally suspicious fellow, he's been on suspect lists for the past two days. If the voting goes mostly between him and Arctic, we could try to figure out who's trying to save whom by the last votes. |
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#6 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
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Well, well, well, we come to it at last, the great battle of our time.
++ ARTICSTORM I feel (eeny meenie miny moe told me, between Articstorm and Perky ent) that Articstorm is a wolf. Mostly I only went along with this because of the amount of information that we shall have if he is innocent. Of course, I hope that if we lynch him he proves to be furry, but I also think we can learn from his death. |
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#7 |
Laconic Loreman
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Mormegil:
Suspected- Perky, arctic Voted for- Day 1: Perky Day 2: Arctic Formendacil: Suspected- Sauce, Azaelia, Perky Voted for-Day 1: Marcolie Day 2: Azaelia Wilwarin: Suspected- Perky Voted for- Day 1: Perky Day 2: Perky Saucepan: Suspected- Perky, arctic, Azaelia, Boromir, Eomer (though less than the rest) Voted for- Day 1: Perky Day 2: Perky Eomer: Suspected- Sauce Voted for- Day 1: Azaelia Day 2: Sauce Arcticstorm: Suspected- Alcarillo, Azaelia, Wilwarin, mormegil Voted for- Day 1: No one Day 2: Perky Alcarillo: Suspected- Perky Voted for- Day 1: Gil-galad Day 2: Perky Abercrombie: Suspected- Sauce, Wilwa, morm, Cailin Voted for- Day 1: No one Day 2: arctic Marcolie: Suspected- Perky, arctic, Alcarillo Voted for- Day 1: arcticstorm Day 2: Azaelia Cailin: Suspected- arctic, Eomer Voted for- Day 1: arcticstorm Day 2: Perky Azaelia: Suspected- arcticstorm, Perky Voted for- Day 1: Gil-galad Day 2:Sauce I definitely think a wolf was in Perky's lynching. Which means... Alcarillo Wilwarin (you forgot her arctic) Cailin SpM arcticstorm Now I'm strongly suspicious of three people in this group, Alcarillo, Sauce, and arctic. I'm more incline to believe Alcarillo or arctic at this point, over Sauce. (I'm going to change from my first post). Alcarillo's gotten his hands dirty in the lynching of innocents twice and arctic I've explained earlier. I don't think 3 wolves would all vote the same this early on. It's a very bold double bluff to try to pull off, but it would give them no room to move around or free themselves. Azaelia and Marcolie seem to follow along with other suspects. Which could mean they are a wolf, are a target for the wolves therefor the ex-cursed, or were innocent villagers convinced by arguments. I got a bad feeling about Eomer, if you want to know scrounge through posts yesterday and try to find it. I wish to not incriminate anyone. So, to date: 1) arctic 2) Alcarillo 3) Eomer/Sauce 4) Azaelia/Marcolie Ok, so who is are possible victim yesterday, I will fill in my thoughts tomorrow.
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#8 | |
Laconic Loreman
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#9 |
Wight
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Nwy, land of the llamas
Posts: 109
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*sigh*
Alas, I come from my studies and find that a third of us are now hiding furry feelings of murder. I don't trust myself to word feeling correctly, since I've been half asleep all day and have a headache, as well as having to be amoung the sick. Tomarrow though, I'll definitally be able to analyze everything. Judging off of feelings top suspects. 1. Azelia 2. artic 3.Eomer 4. someone who was an easy kill...Cailin perhaps? Sorry about not being able to say more now
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#10 | |
Shade of Carn Dűm
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Marcolie, what "feelings" are you basing your suspicion of me off of? I don't like being in a situation where I give people a "bad feeling" because there is no way to defend myself from that, other than to say that the feeling is misplaced. It's getting late for me here, and I am not thinking my best. I will "see" you all tomorrow (in RL time, not WW time).
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#11 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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OK, time for some thoughts.
Let’s look at the voting on Day 1. It has been suggested that a Wolf probably voted for Gil. Out of those who voted for Gil, only Azaelia and Alcarillo remain alive. I do still wonder whether Gil would have been top of the Wolves “lynch list”. I suspect that they would rather have kept him around for a few Days, since he would have acted as a kind of “insurance policy” for them on a subsequent Days. That said, I certainly do not discount the possibility that a Wolf voted for Gil on Day 1. What is more interesting about the voting on Day 1 is that it was well spread out until about half-way through the voting. With 7 Villagers attracting votes, I am sure that at least one of them was a Wolf. Those who attracted votes on Day 1 were (excluding those no longer with us): Marcolie Lamen Azaelia Wilwarin Arcticstorm SpM Now, when all of these Villagers (plus Perky and Gil) had one vote each, I am sure that one of the Wolves and quite possibly two will have come in to steer the voting away from the Wolf that I believe to be on that list. They will have voted for Gil, Perky or (assuming that he is not a Wolf) arcticstorm. Wilwarin and I voted for Perky. Shelob, Perky and Alcarillo voted for Gil (but we can obviously discount Shelob and Perky). Marcolie Lamen voted for arcticstorm. On that basis, I would conclude that one and quite probably two of the following are Wolves: Marcolie Lamen Azaelia Wilwarin Arcticstorm Alcarillo (Yes, I know that my reasoning also points to me, but I know that I am not a Wolf.) It’s unlikely that both Azaelia and Alcarillo are Wolves, as I would have expected them to spread their votes between diferent Villagers. So then we come to Day 2 voting. Eomer launches in first with a strong attack on me. He is fierce and passionate but in my view somewhat over the top. He accuse me of having picked on him and having gone for him when, in my view, I did no such thing. This does seem a rather risky way for a Wolf to behave, but Eomer is undoubtedly one of those who could pull off such a bold move as a Wolf. Eomer’s vote, together with Perky and articstorm having been in the frame from the precious Day’s voting (and, in arcticstorm’s case, his failure to vote), meant that there were really only ever three candidates for lynching on Day 2. That’s a shame because it means that the voting tells us less than it might otherwise. But so be it. As I will explain later, I am currently inclined to view arcticstorm as innocent (or at least as innocent up until last Night). I know that I am. So, as far as I am concerned, the only likely candidates for lynching on Day 2 were all innocents. Therefore no need for the Wolves to put in any saving votes. They could concentrate on one or two people that they wanted to see lynched. I believe that I am one of those. Hence, I consider that at least one of those who voted for me is a Wolf, namely: Eomer Boromir88 Azaelia I also believe that at least one Wolf voted for Perky. That implicates: Wilwarin Alcarillo Cailin Arcticstorm SpM Since I don’t believe that, at that point, either arcticstorm or Cailin were Wolves and I most certainly am not, that leaves Alcarillo and wilwarin. Assuming, again, that the Wolves spread their votes out (and they could certainly afford to), the third Wolf would have voted for either arcticstorm or Azaelia (possibly a “safe” Wolf-on-Wolf vote). Those people are: Mormegil Abercrombie Marcolie Lamen Formendacil So why am I inclined to believe that arcticstorm and Cailin are (or at least were) innocent? Because, if they were Wolves, I would have expected them to vote for me rather than Perky, as I picked up no indication that Perky was the Ranger and I doubt that the Wolves did either. By voting for Perky in order to save me, Cailin and arcticstorm were putting themselves in a very precarious position since, when Perky was proved innocent, they were likely to come under suspicion, even moreso as both of them had earlier expressed doubts as to Perky’s guilt. It’s possible that a Wolfish arcticstorm would have thought that a vote for Perky would be more likely to save him, but I somehow doubt that. He knew that Cailin had already voted for Perky and he knew that I was likely to. So I just don’t see Wolves acting in the way that arcticstorm and Cailin did at the end of yester-Day. So, taking the two Days’ voting together, I believe that the three original Wolves will be found amongst the following groupings: Either Azaelia, Boromir88 or Eomer Either wilwarin or Alcarillo Either mormegil or Marcolie Lamen I have not included Formendacil or Abercrombie, as I don’t real have much of a handle on them at the moment. I do tend to think, however, that a Wolf would not have acted as Formendacil did on Day 1. At this stage, I am finding it difficult to pinpoint it any more than that. OK. I know what you are thinking. Sauce’s reasoning relies almost entirely on him being innocent. Well, of course it does. That’s because I am innocent silly ![]() As for wilwa’s idea that we try looking for the fourth Wolf by considering who the Wolves were likely to have attacked last Night, there may well be some merit in it. Of course, I know I was not attacked but, even if you do not take my word for it, consider whether they would have attacked someone who was likely to be in the firing line to-Day. For what it’s worth, I think that the following would have been the most likely victims (assuming that they were not already Wolves): Mormegil Boromir88 Cailin Possibly Eomer too, although they may have thought that he would have come under suspicion to-Day, or that he would be useful in furthering suspicion of me.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#12 |
Dead Serious
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T'is a sad day. No one died, t'is true, but an innocent has been taken from us regardless. He or she who was once as innocent as a lamb is now as perilous as any of the fiends who attack us. I have been mulling it over, and here are my suspicions:
Mormegil: Mormegil attracts the least of my worry. He cannot be the Seer, though, since he would not have voted for Perky on Day 1 and still suspected him on Day 2. It's possible that he's been playing a clever game, but I do not see him as an original werewolf, and I don't see him as the mostly likely target. Wilwarin: Wilwarin attracts my suspicion. She voted for Perky two days in sucession, and is plainly cleared of being the Seer on that score, for she would likely have known that he was the Ranger. Wilwarin seems like a likely Wolf to me, but not as the Cursed One. Saucepan: For the same reasons as Wilwa, I think that Saucey may be a Wolf- but not the Cursed One. He talks a great deal, and casts suspicions on pretty much everybody, but does little to definitely convict any of them until he sees which way the wind is blowing. The question is, is it harmless chatter or dangerous motives? Eomer: I don't think that Eomer was an original Werewolf. But if Sauce and Wilwa WERE two of the culprits, then he maybe the new Werewolf, thanks to the opposition he put up, especially to Sauce. Arcticstorm: Arcticstrom seems suspicious to me. He kept a low profile the first day, and helped vote Perky off yesterday. Again, I do not think him the Cursed One. Alcarillo: If Alcarillo was a Werewolf, he's hidden it well. Nothing he's done yet has set off a Werewolf warning in my mind, although he may simply be staying undercover fairly well. He doesn't seem like a Cursed One candidate. Abercrombie: This young lady doesn't seem like the Cursed One to me, nor a Werewolf. But I'm putting her down as a backup Werewolf. She might be the undercover one. Voting for Arctic yesterday may have been a front... Marcolie: Marcolie was the victim of my first, random, vote, but thus far there is no evidence that that vote had anything going for it other than random. I don't think that she was a Werewolf. I'm almost certain that she wasn't the Cursed One- unless the Wolves decided to go for an unknown rather than a loudmouth. Cailin: Much the same as Marcolie. I have nothing yet against her that would suggest she is a werewolf. But her vote for Perky yesterday is a sore spot... Azaelia: I suspected her yesterday, and I still do. However, her voting record means that if she's a werewolf, then Sauce probably isn't. Still, she could also have been the Cursed One. Boromir88: Mostly out from under my suspicion, Boro could still be the Cursed One. He strikes me as a major target for the Wolves, if he was innocent. Now, I obviously consider myself innocent. As a matter of fact, I am innocent, but that is going to be rather difficult to prove, now isn't it? My suspicions lie strongest on Azaelia, Arcticstorm, the Saucepan Man, and Wilwarin. I doubt if those exact four are the four werewolves, but statistically speaking, one or two of them ought to be...
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#13 | ||
Shade of Carn Dűm
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With Azalia Quote:
I am less supicious of Perky right now because he seems too suspicious, like Formendacil yesterday. Right now everyone is suspecting him and he needs an advocate, even if it is not that good of one. Even if he is guilty, what the village needs is to look at everyone through all lenses, and not just focus on a few suspicious behaviors and only focus on those. My induction is that the wolves will be playing on this and are going to allow him to live as long as we do, because the village is supecting him. I am not saying he is innocent, but I am saying at least one, if not two of the wolves, are going to be among the least supicious in the village. They will not beleading the attack on perky, but they will join in, and not near the end either, somewhere in the middle if that is where it ends up. |
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#14 | ||||
Laconic Loreman
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I'm not sure what to make of this opposition against arcticstorm. Either he's fooled me and he's fair in language, but since I find myself agreeing with him right now, I can't vote for him. His theories make sense, and as he's said...
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Marcolie's cooled my suspicions, but I said earlier I wanted to hear more from Alcarillo. Nothing's changed and this particularly gets me worried... Quote:
I won't vote for Alcarillo today, because one it will throw yet another name out there, and two I don't think it will go anywhere, but I want to hear an answer tomorrow. (If I'm alive). I'm going to follow Eomer and say... ++Saucepan He worries me.
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#15 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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So, currently tis
Saucepan - 2 Arcticstorm - 2 Perky - 2 Boromir88 - this is the second time you vote the same way as Eomer (though not literally). Are you sure you wish to be in league with a suicidal wolf? |
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#16 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Well, I must be off, supper time then I won't be back.
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#17 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
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Decisions, decisions. I think I will vote now. I believe that we should keep the number of suspects down as a way to make wolves nervous. So I'll vote for someone already on the table. The person on the voting list that I am least suspicious of is Perky, and it seems like people want to lynch him because of the information it would bring, and not because they are sure he is a wolf. It's just convenient that his death, innocent or not, would tell us something.
Sauce (due to his strong assertions and passionate argument against Eomer) and Arctic (because I think his reasoning is flawed) both send up red flags, but I think Saucy's red flag is a little redder. ++Sauce because of that paradoxial part of WW: defend yourself and you look suspicious, but you can't just let yourself be lynched, either. It's the way he's going about defending himself that looks suspicious to me. I'm very sorry that I can't give any better explanation than that...it just sends up red flags to me. edit: cross-posted with Marcolie and Boromir (that is, they posted while I was still working on my reply)
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"Wherever I have been, I am back." Last edited by Azaelia of Willowbottom; 10-02-2005 at 03:28 PM. Reason: Cross-posting |
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#18 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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![]() This is strange. How did SpM get blamed for my attacks on Eomer? I don't believe, Azaelia, you have read everything quite thoroughly, either that or you're suddenly high on my suspect list. I can imagine why the wolves would find SpM a bigger threat than me, for I fully accept he is a generally more intelligent player than I am, but I cannot believe a villager would vote for him because of what I suggested today. Be back soon with more... |
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#19 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Interesting. As matters stand I get lynched, even if Perky or arcticstorm get another vote each.
I wondered, when I talked about Eomer putting me in a dangerous position by giving me the first vote of the Day, whether anyone would take the bait. It seems that the bait has been well and truly taken. I rather tend to the idea that Eomer is not a Wolf. He just seems too guileless to me at the moment. If he was a Wolf, I would expect him to play much more intelligently, rather than putting himself well and truly in the firing line as and when I am proven innocent. And he just doesn't seem the type to volunteer for the sacrificial role out of a group of three Wolves. But it is clear to me that either Boromir88 or Azaelia is a Wolf, for their subsequent votes for me. What an opportunity for the Wolves to rid themselves of one thorn in their side (me) while implicating another (Eomer). It's unlikely that both are, as that would be risky, but it's a possibility. At the moment, my inclination is that, out of the two, Boro is the more likely Wolf. his vote for me came out of nowhere - he previously suggested that he tended to trust me - whereas Azaelia has at least expressed doubts about me previously. I will save my vote, as I may have to save myself. And believe me that, although I am innocent, I will not hesitate to do so, as I believe that the village is better off with me alive. If I don't have to save myself, I will probably vote for Boromir88.
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#20 | |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Double posting because I had not read Azaelia's post properly.
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Azaelia and Boro now look equally suspicious to me.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#21 |
Wight
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Nwy, land of the llamas
Posts: 109
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Summary of votes so far
SpM (3) Boromir Eomer Zali Artic (3) Abercrombie mormegil Perky Perky (5) Alcarillo wilwarin Cailin SpM artic Azaelia (1) Marcolie I'm debating throughing another name into the mix to spread out votes, but am not sure whether or not to yet. edit: updating votes as people vote
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Last edited by Márcolië Lamen; 10-02-2005 at 04:58 PM. Reason: updating votes |
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#22 | |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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I was also quite certain that Cailin had dreamed of Azaelia on Night 3 both because Azaelia, having attracted a lot of suspicion, was a likely dream candidate and because of Cailin's comments about her. So, had I survived to the end, I would not have voted for Azaelia. That said, however, I would most likely have turned on Formendacil. ![]() ![]() Abercrombie, I thought that your Hunter declaration was very strange at the time. But it turned out to be a stroke of genius. Had morm's declaration gone unchallenged, we most likely would have lynched wilwa that Day, and so an innocent would have died in any event. But you kept the suspicion on mormegil, meaning that two vocal innocent villagers (morm and me) could be disposed of at a stroke and preventing a known innocent from hanging around and being a thorn in the Wolves' sides (as morm would have been a risky kill). Finally, although all credit goes to the Wolves for the win, I would just like to point out that the Villagers managed to kill three Wolves, which is pretty good going in comparison with other games. So due credit too to my fellow innocents and the gifteds. ![]()
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#23 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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I still regret I condemned Perky to the gallows - that was my fault indeed -, but my dream about Eomer then proved to be the wiser choice. Though my other candidate for the third dream, Formendacil, was also proven innocent in the end, it would have told me far more than a dream about someone I just wanted to be able to protect, after feeling serious guilty towards Perky. |
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#24 | ||
Laconic Loreman
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But at the end of voting, it was pretty clear to me that, Azaelia was innocent, or atleast I bought it, and if she was a wolf she played it great, Formendacil was innocent, because she just at this point seemed very befuddled, and that Alcarillo was the wolf, because he had been playing very safe in voting lately. I was definitely going after him, but he made the wise choice of killing me then jumping on with Formendacil. Well played by all our wolves. And if it wasn't for Cailin I probably would have foolishly followed Eomer (which I was doing up until that when she specifically said to me that it wasn't wise to follow a suicidal wolf).
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#25 |
Wight
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Nwy, land of the llamas
Posts: 109
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First and foremost, congratulations Alcarillo and the wolves. I would never have suspected you if it continued at the same pace.
At the same time good job to all other villagers and gifted, we managed to kill three wolves, which is difficult too in such a village-both the other games I read/played in all three wolves made it out alive which makes this a nice change ![]() Thank you wolves for killing me when I asked for it. This game is too addicting for its own good and, much like Abercrombie I found myself needing to get out for school related reasons. Ironically before the whole hunter deal happened I was debating being a suicidal villager and just coming in voting for myself and disappearing. Abercrombie just wow. If you hadn't had to get out because of homework causing you to greet the wee hours of the morning (now you know how I feel :P) you probably could have made alot of damage (well for me I don't think my innate ability of trusting you too much was very helpful). But the way you got out definitally threw a curve ball. And was exceedingly memorable as well as taking down a gifted with you Holby, thanks for the entertaining deaths for all. You made a great mod. All in all, thanks for a great game all and I hope to play again sometime when finals are not on the horizon. p.s. If anyone cares to know, the worst thing possibly in a werewolf game is an attack cat. You know how many times I've typed up this reply not to mention all of the ones I said during the game.
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#26 | |
Dead Serious
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![]() Please tell me that is a typo... or something...
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#27 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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Hail the victorious Wolf! Alcarillo, you were tremendous.
![]() And I have to agree with previous sentiments: This was a high-quality game and everyone can feel pleased with the contributions of Wolves and Villagers. Abercrombie, I confess to gawping at my computer screen in amazement when you did what you did. I was highly sceptical of the plan. But I must retract those suspicions, for it worked out very well in the end to take out the known innocent. Well done! And Arcticstorm (all these A's, eh?), 'twas a shame that I never got to strategise with thee, but I'm proud to say that it was my hopeless suspicion of you being the Seer that allowed you to join our team. It was the comments about Perky Ent that made me think that. You played wisely throughout. I thought that there was a good chance that Cailín was the Seer, but I realised that killing her at night would point straight to me in any case. If she'd dreamt about me then there was no hope in defending myself anyway. And bagging the Cursed Villager was about as lucky as we could have got! ![]() O, one other thing. Why did I pick on SpM? Because I knew it would be so much fun! Two suicidal wolves in one team? It worked out in the end. ![]() And I too praise Holby with great praise. Very original modding.
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Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
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