Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

AbercrombieofRohan - Someone who has not attracted much suspicion yet, but we should not forget about. She did not vote the first day, but claimed she would have voted Perky (not really such a great excuse now, huh?) and steadily votes for Perky the next day.

Ahem, read again Cailin, I voted for articstorm.

Abercrombie-not attracted much suspision, which is the main reason I'm suspicious of her, either as a ex-cursed, or as a wolf. I wouldn't find Abercrombie suspicious except for it seems like the wolves are always who you least expect. I'll give her the benefit of the doubt for now though.

I would call your attention to this:

Day 1:

Eomer and AbercrombieOfRohan both jumped on Formendacil's case, after Saucepan Man mentioned his suspicions of him. Are they werewolves trying to subtly lead the village into lynching an innocent?-Cailin

Abercombie also seems to have been following along with my train of thought to an extent. This unnerves me, since I am worried that one or both of them may be trying to identify themselves with me. -SPM

You said that you do not trust me because I am an asset to the Village and because I seem to be trying to weed out the Wolves. An innocent mistake - or a Freudian slip? -SPM

Well, if they don't vote, I shall expect explanations from Abercrombie and Arcticstorm tomorrow. -SPM

And so on and so forth... I take it you catch my meaning? I have been suspected, perhaps not as much as say, articstorm or Saucepan Man, but I still have.

Also, what kind of suspicion is suspecting someone because they haven't garnered any suspicion? Is it my fault that I haven't gained suspicion? Shall I put some more suspicion on myself? I'm just pointing out that it seems ridiculous to suspect someone because they've been ignored. Not that I want suspicion, but hey, I don't particularly want to act cobblerish and get myself lynched over here.

On to the SPM/Eomer thing:

I think both of them are wolves and they are attempting to pull off one of the old "go for each other's jugulars to avoid suspicion if one of us get's lynched" things. They've alternated suspicion, yesterday was SPM's day and today is Eomer's, but unfortunatley for them, it appears one of them will probably get lynched today. Unless some new evidence comes to light, I shall probably vote for one of them today.

[Cailín]

Ahem, read again Cailin, I voted for articstorm.

Sorry, AoR... My mistake.

I have to say you seem rather insulted by the attacks on you, while there is simply not anyone here who has not at least gathered some sort of suspicion. Be careful.

Eomer's vote is a bit more difficult to fathom, and I hesitate to make an predictions based on it, at this time.

Of the two, I am inclined to think Eomer the Werewolf at this time.

But I shall save my vote for a later hour.

I'd ask you, Form, and any other innocent villager still holding their votes to please make a decision soon. The longer you hold your votes, the more chance the wolves have of manipulating the voting so it will go their own way. Also, SpM has it right toDay. One of them has to go and spreading out the votes will not be very helpful - we might lose another innocent and be in the exact same situation tomorrow.

The wolves know who they can trust. We do not. They have that as a major advantage. Do you honestly believe there is anything anyone could still say toDay to make you trust either Eomer or SpM? I don't think so. Except, perhaps, a straightforward comment from the Seer, but that is not very likely to happen. Follow your instincts here, because SpM and Eomer are admittedly both strong players with clever reasoning abilities.

They are not both innocents. They have not been furry pals from the beginning. It is highly unlikely they are both wolves, though they may be trying to clear each other by having us lynch one of them today. So what? At least we'll have caught a wolf.

I know I have nothing solid to back this up. *dramatic sigh* But whatever the turn out tonight, I will die for it. What more can I give than my life?

You'll never hear me say this again. But please. Join the bandwagon.

Who could possibly vote for Eomer? He's so loveable...

I know, we're all having a hard time.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I'd ask you, Form, and any other innocent villager still holding their votes to please make a decision soon. The longer you hold your votes, the more chance the wolves have of manipulating the voting so it will go their own way. Also, SpM has it right toDay. One of them has to go and spreading out the votes will not be very helpful - we might lose another innocent and be in the exact same situation tomorrow.

Well, I'm flattered to know you believe me innocent. Such a statement is hard to come by in these troubled times. Do not fear for the manipulation of my vote. I shall vote how I want to, when I want to, with little fear of being too badly manipulated.

As of this time, however, Eomer already has what is essentially a convicting vote: 6 out of 12, and no retractable votes allowed.

I'm going to stick with my older gut feeling and vote ++Saucepan Man, though it does no good (or evil) now. I still think him the more likely suspect, on whole. The Eomer bandwaggon, although it FEELS right, doesn't seem to have as much SUBSTANCE behind it as it ought...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

The wolves know who they can trust. We do not. They have that as a major advantage. Do you honestly believe there is anything anyone could still say toDay to make you trust either Eomer or SpM? I don't think so. Except, perhaps, a straightforward comment from the Seer, but that is not very likely to happen. Follow your instincts here, because SpM and Eomer are admittedly both strong players with clever reasoning abilities.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Saucepan Man - I trusted him yesterDay (which is pretty obvious when you look at the way I voted) and still am pretty much convinced he at least wasn’t an original wolf.

I think this shows one thing and only one thing. SpM was innocent to begin with. It doesn't mean that he didn't turn wolf the other night. Again I want to emphasize that I am not certain that my wacky theory has any merit but I think that we need to recognize that it's possible.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Arcticstorm - I trust arcticstorm far more than yesterDay, but I don’t think he’s entirely cleared just yet. I very much hope he turns out to be a wolf, so we weren’t wrong about everything. On the other hand, he voted for Perky, following me, more or less because I asked him to (yeah, that was an oops), which would be risking thing to do if he were a wolf indeed

Now this looks good for Articstorm, my guess is that she dreamt of him after all of the initial suspicion but didn't want to outright say it. My suspicion of him has lessened but not vanished.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Marcolie - I said I’d be keeping an eye on you, but I failed miserably. I seriously distrust you now, especially since you voted so strangely yesterday. Certainly, Azaelia was on most people’s suspect list by then, especially after Perky bravely decided to reveal himself, but it’s a very easy vote, for you are not suffering from post-Day 2 trauma right now, as most of us secretly are.

This seems pretty close to an accusation. That would mean that Cailin dreamt of SpM, Eomer, Articstorm and Marcolie. Now I could be wrong but this is by far the strongest suggestion she gave besides Eomer.

Originally Posted by Cailin

My suspect list, as of now:

1) Eomer
2) Marcolie / AbercrombieofRohan
3) Wilwa / Boromir
4) Formendacil

Let's keep this in mind while our discussion begins. I think there is wisdom in it. Notice that Marcolie ranked 2nd on the list.

[arcticstorm]

So they got the seer,
I knew that they would find him eventually, unfortunately with the cursed villager caught, not all of the seer's dreams will be able to help us. I tend to concur with Mormegil's choices on the dreams, as they seem to fit. I will be going and analyzing previous events and will let you in on my own two cents worth afyer I examine everything.

[Boromir88]

A brave sacrifice my lady Cailin, thankyou in helping us with the wolf you found, and I'm sure this will help us weed out the others. I thought she was going to go today. After her words when I sided with Eomer Day 2 of voting, it was pretty apparent she was the Seer. That's why I was surprised she wasn't killed that Night. I hope this goes to my benefit of now showing people my innocence. I knew she was the Seer before, and I don't care what's the risk, if a wolf spotted the Seer they will have the Seer killed that Night, it's the most dangerous role in the game.

I concur and agree that she did also dream of Sauce. So, that makes me see less suspicious of him. It doesn't mean that he isn't the newly turned wolf, however as I explained yesterday I don't think Sauce would be a target for wolves. They usually don't kill loud-mouths until they become a big thorn in the wolves side, Wolves typically go after possible dangerous players, yet ones that don't leave a big trail to follow.

I will post what I normally do, but here's my thoughts coming into today. Ok, so I think we have one wolf that didn't vote for Eomer (maybe two).

DID NOT VOTE for Eomer:

Mormegil
Wilwarin
Formendacil

All these people look suspicious. I'm more inclined to believe Wilwarin is the wolf here. With Eomer's fate still uncertain she gets the voting within 1 between Eomer and Alcarillo. Plus said basically nothing yesterday except she was sorry for voting for Perky.

I would also attach suspicion to Mormegil and Formendacil. Formendacil's vote seemed like a throw-away, didn't have enough in ya to vote for a fellow wolf? Mormegil's vote is less suspicious, he was pretty suspicious of Alcarillo all day long (as was I). But, both aren't as suspicious as Wilwarin's that came out of the blue...possibly to try to swing the anti-Eomer opposition?

I think we also have probably two wolves that voted for Eomer. At this point I'm more inclined to believe that they were the ones who voted at the end (Marcolie, Abercrombie, arctic, Azaelia) once it was pretty apparent Eomer was going to be hanged.

Marcolie's is less suspicious as it gets Eomer ahead by two, but Abercrombie and arctic's seemed like tagging along to go unsuspected. Azaelia just seemed to vote, to throw off suspicion from herself. Especially when I spotted the only person she really strongly suspected that day was Marcolie. (Though I may have missed something).

Alcarillo's actions just seem way to suspicious to be a wolf. With so much question going to him, I would expect a wolf to say something in his/her defense, Alcarillo seems to go along with the majority, which is a characteristic of a wolf, or an innocent persuaded by arguments.

So my wolves at the moment are: (No real order and subject to change at any moment).

Wilwarin
Azaelia
arctic

I feel pretty confident now that Sauce is innocent. As much as we would think that wolves would go after a "leader" such as Sauce, it typically isn't the case early on. Though, I have been fooled, and it's still possible.

[Boromir88]

What I don't understand is why Boromir and SpM brought attention to it by saying they weren't going to bring attention to it.

Mormegil, I didn't really bring attention to it. The post is there for everyone to read, I basically said if you're interested in wondering why I'm suspicious of Eomer you'll have to look for it. To me it was pretty clear with Cailin and my exchange the night before, Cailin was the Seer and she had dreamed of Eomer. Honestly, I really didn't think we could have been more blatant in that exchange except for declaring that she was the Seer. Which was why I was surprised she wasn't killed that night. With that, I felt a little foolish in following Eomer in his vote for Sauce, but I can't take it back and wasn't going to make the same mistake the next day.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

This seems pretty close to an accusation. That would mean that Cailin dreamt of SpM, Eomer, Articstorm and Marcolie.

But Cailin only had three dreams before being slaughtered by the Wolves (discounting the dream they interrupted last Night).

Arcticstorm is a possibility, although she did say that he was not entirely cleared yet. My feeling is that, if she dreamed of a Wolf, she dreamed of wilwarin. And if she dreamed of an innocent, she dreamed of Azaelia:

Originally Posted by Cailin

Wilwarin - I think Wilwa might be one of our wolves here. She attracted some suspicion during the last few days, but never quite enough to get her in any real danger. When we started suspecting her, it was together with the other quiet villager Azaelia, but now Azaelia is the only one still really on our radar. It’s hard to explain, but if Azaelia is innocent, I think Wilwarin is definitely someone to look at.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Azaelia - I do not think she’s a wolf. She has been attracting suspicion since Day 1, yesterDay at the end of voting time, everybody suddenly believed her to be furry and evil. Sure, she has a little explaining to do, but I’m one of those crazy ones who think that the more suspicion people attract from the beginning, the more likely they are innocents.

It looks the more liekly to me that she dreamed of Azaelia and found her to be innocent. Azaelia would have been a logical choice, given that she was looking very suspicious at the end of Day 2. Also, I directly accused her of being a Wolf, and Cailin would still have fully trusted me at that point. My question is, if Cailin dreamed of the Cursed villager that Night, the Night that the Cursed tranformed, would that person have been revealed to her as an innocent or a Wolf?

Boro, I am pretty confident that you are innocent too. You and I have one suspect in common (wilwarin), but I would ask you to take a close look at mormegil.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Another was your most recent post. Why such a strong defense when there has been no attack?

Um - that came well after you accused me of having undergone a change in behaviour.

I would have thought that the answer is obvious. Part of my case against you is your eagerness to point out yester-Day that, even if Eomer was a Wolf, that did not mean that I was innocent and your "whacky" theory involving me as the fourth Wolf sparring with Eomer-Wolf. In order to put that case, I needed to show why it was unlikely that I was the fourth Wolf.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I wasn't anticipating having a showdown with you today, but you are seeming rather intent on it. I must ask myself why?

Again, a no-brainer. I believe that you are a Wolf.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Poor Cailin, her sacrifice caught a wolf. Her extreme hinting in the end was a sacrifice for us so we must take it and have at least some innocents suvive because of her sacrifice.

Reading through I must agree, I appear to be a pretty strong possiblility of being dreamed to be a wolf. I won't be able to prove my innocence so if you must lynch me then don't keep me around to take attention away from those truly guilty.

I feel Azalelia to have been the one drempt and shown to be innocent, at least before the wolves got their fourth member.

In terms of SaucepanMan I have been persuaded that he is most likely not the ex-cursed, but I am not sure. We know he wasn't one of the original three at least...and it'd be more likely a quiet one had become the wolf instead of such a leader. We can't make assumptions though.

Most likely one wolf didn't vote for his or her peer and two did. I'd say at least one of these are within the last few to vote because at that point he was unsavable. The last four people were Me, Abercrombie, arctic, and Azaelia. I know I had an excuse to voting late, but it would not persuade anyone of my innocence. I had written up my post and went to submit it and lost wireless for an hour before I was able to actually vote because we were leaving school and I was trying to get it in before we got out of the wireless range.

So I suspect at least one of
Abercrombie and
artic

because they were the only two within the last 4. Possibly Azaelia too if she was not the one drempt of.

on Alcarillo I don't know what to think. The actions seem one of a wolf, but could also be an innocent, and with the little defence I wonder if he hopes people will defend him if he doesn't defend himself...

In terms of wilwarin I feel wolf. Hasn't posted much of value, and partnered with one of the three who didn't vote for Eomer and my theory that one didn't, the most suspicious one becomes even more suspicious.

In terms of Morm I feel a possible ex-cursed. Definitally not one of the original three but as a vicitim makes sense, and hasn't helped at all since we were unfortunately cursed. I wouldn't say I suspect him half as much as I did Eomer yesterday, but I can't cast him off as an innocent.

Boro and Form I suspect to be innocent, Form because of voting for Sauce yesterday instead of a wolf-on-wolf vote. (or was it bluffing?) and Boro because of the overall helpfulness.


High suspision
Wilwarin
Morm

Middle suspision
Arcticstorm
Abercrombie

Middle/Low suspision
Azaelia
Alcarillo
Formendacil
Boromir

Low Suspision
Marcolie
Saucepan Man



I know this will be cross-posted with some so sorry for repetitions

[mormegil]

I hope that no ill comes of this, but I feel that it will help the greater good even though it's likely I will die. I am the Hunter! I attempted to hint to SpM in saying that I know he's not gifted but seemingly he has me stuck in his head as a wolf and won't reconsider . Now I do this because it will help give some clarity to our councils and cut out this seemingly endless blather about Mormegil being guilty.

Originally Posted by Márcolië Lamen

In terms of SaucepanMan I have been persuaded that he is most likely not the ex-cursed, but I am not sure. We know he wasn't one of the original three at least...and it'd be more likely a quiet one had become the wolf instead of such a leader. We can't make assumptions though.

This was my goal, I wanted people realize that SpM is not necessarily innocent. I agree it's not likely he's a wolf but let's please keep that in mind that we can't assume.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Good try Morm the wolf. But alas! You are not the hunter, because I am! I surely expect to die tonight at the paws of your murderous devious little fellows.

Saucepan, your suspicions of the treachrous deviant are completely based in reason. You've already set out detailed claims of mistrust against Morm, so I shall not repeat them. I cannot stress this enough Do not hesitate to ask for more proof on my part , for I am willing to give. But as of right now, I have quite a lot of studying to be doing and I can't provide it. It is quite clear to me, who at least one wolf is tonight.