TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[Boromir88]

Double posting here...

Listen to me: don't underestimate the audacity of the wolves. How much common sense would it take to absolutely secure the vision of your innocence by sacrificing one of your own? All they had to do was kill off Cailin, or show that they were trying to, and anybody on that list is golden.~Fea

Atleast we agree on something Miss wolf.

[Firefoot]

Boromir, I'm not sure where you get yourself to be a proven innocent, except to yourself, maybe. You're not dead, we don't have the Seer's word, and you don't have a vote to say that you're probably innocent. I am leaning toward your innocence (or at least, I was, mostly due to your unconcerned manner, but it's posts like that that keep me concerned), but that doesn't preclude Fea's guilt. She's just about as likely to be a wolf as anyone.

I'm not assuming the innocence of Morm or LMP, though it does seem likely. There were six people already voted for when Morm voted; he could have easily voted for one of them if he were a wolf. I'm thinking that LMP is a wolf only if the third wolf hadn't voted yet. I'm not saying that it wouldn't be a wolvish ploy to try and vote out one of their own, but with the voting so broad, it was quite unnecessary.

I'm still suspicious of Formendacil. We all seem to be assuming that the wolf voted later and with strategy concerned with Cailin, but there are RL circumstances to prevent that. A wolf could very well have voted earlier, as Cailin did.

Shelob is also edging up on my suspicion list. Before, she was on my watchlist because basically everyone was. Day 1 is too soon to discount anybody. But I really don't understand the accusations she was making at the end of Day 1. Also, her continued insistence that the wolves wouldn't kill her during the night is disconcerting.

As for the other people who voted for Ang:

Encai - she just doesn't seem very suspicious to me. Her posts make very logical sense to me, and I tend to agree with her statements.

Mr. Underhill - I'm not sure what to think of him. He's on my suspicion list, but other than his late vote for Ang, I can't come up with anything concrete.

Lhuna - That's a question, isn't it? Her vote for Ang could easily have been chance or calculated. It would have been a difficult decision for either a wolf or an innocent. She's on my suspicion list, but I don't think her vote for Ang is enough reason to lynch her unless we have no other better suspects.

Others:

Esty - I'm not sure about her, but right now I'm leaning innocent. There are too many people I find more suspicious than her.

TGWBS - Also leaning innocent. More suspicious than Esty, maybe, but his analysis of yesterday's voting largely made sense to me.

Fea - I could go either way. While I haven't seen anything outstandingly suspicious about her, I wouldn't expect to; nor would I put anything past her. If she was an innocent, she honestly wouldn't know about any of the three (Ang, Cailin, and Borormir); and if she were a wolf her vote for Boromir basically says that she doesn't care which of those three dies and gives the remaining person another option so as not to be overtly protecting Cailin. And actually, from Fea, I think a vote sealing Cailin's fate would have made her look more suspicious. But then, she could be double-bluffing. It's Fea. All that to say "leaning innocent."

[mormegil]

I don't have much to say right now other than for my purposes today I will be assuming that LMP and Firefoot are innocent. I realize that there could be one wolf in the three of us but it's not incredibly likely, though possible, but having the two remaining wolves is rather improbable so to help clear up my head I will look to those other two as innocent for today and then reevaluate tomorrow.

Edit: the only way to clear up the Fea confusion is the time tested method of lynching her.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Edit: the only way to clear up the Fea confusion is the time tested method of lynching her.

Well, yes, you do have a point there.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I've been rehashing yesterDay's discussions and my head is spinning. After only one day, though we were lucky to lose a werewolf already, there still isn't enough evidence for anything even closely resembling certainty. Since I'm convinced that at least one wolf voted for Anguirel, my suspicion is concentrated on Shelob, Enca, Underhill and Lhuna. It seems easier to find one out of four than two out of twelve! (sound mathematics, that!)

Shelob has already voted for Lhuna today. That could tell us something, but what? A wolf pretending to lynch another wolf? Or an innocent guessing?

[Mister Underhill]

Well it's no fun to wake up and find that not only do I have the blood of an innocent on my hands, but now I'm a chief suspect as well. I mourn Anguirel, but I curse him too -- by offering his neck for the noose, he may end up bringing another innocent -- me -- down with him, and that would be a sad legacy.

There are a few things to remember about the voting. One is that Ang offered himself. This was incredibly foolish! None of you innocents do it again. Not only does it make you look suspicious, but in a situation like last night, where there is almost no information to go on, it makes you seem a safe vote. Enough of us will die under the jaws of these things without us volunteering.

Also Cailin is only dead because we had a wise hunter. Cailin *didn't* get voted down by us. So I don't see how a vote for Cailin makes anyone golden.

If the wolves were smart, and I have no doubt they were, they'd want to space out their votes, and hold at least one until fairly late in case of trouble. Since Cailin voted early on, I'd say that puts everyone from Mormegil back under suspicion (I realize this still leaves me on the suspicious list).

The way the voting stood when Morm cast the first vote for Cailin, it would have been an easy throwaway vote for a wolf to divert suspicion, but I think this unlikely. Still it's not out of the realm of possibility -- at this point it seemed unlikely that Cailin would be voted, and Morm could have this vote to show later if the two of them were ever linked.

Morm and Firefoot voted two in a row for Cailin, so it seems unlikely to me that they're both wolves.

Then along comes lmp and casts a third vote for Cailin. This would be an audacious vote for a wolf. It would put Cailin ahead, but with the possible knowledge that another wolf could come along and create a tie, sparing Cailin. Don't know what to think here, and it seems a stretch now that I'm writing it down.

Enca's vote for Ang created a three-way tie for second, an interesting setup but I don't see much in it to suspect either innocent or guilty.

Then yours truly blunders in and creates a situation which would have hanged both Cailin and Anguirel. I can see why this casts some suspicion on me. Well, I can only say that I should have been more attentive to the way the vote stood. My vote was cast solely for the reason I gave in my vote post -- "He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff." -- and without regard to the tally, which I see now was a mistake.

I only hope you will see that a wolf, even a newbie wolf, wouldn't make a move that would cast such obvious suspicion on himself.

If Feanor is a wolf who held her vote until very late, she made a good one -- not tipping her hand by saving Cailin with an Anguirel vote, but creating a situation which could have led to a double-lynching that would have taken down Boromir with her fellow wolf.

Lhuna's tie-breaker sealed the fate of Anguirel and saved Cailin, at least from our collective cudgels -- but would a wolf make such an obvious blundering move? Probably not.

I have to admit that my own analysis leaves me looking more likely a werewolf than not, but I can only plead inexperience and restate emphatically that I am innocent. Have the seer dream of me, put me to any test. I don't much like being in the position of knowing that I'm innocent but having suspicious eyes cast on me, but here I am.

I'm almost too bewildered to come up with my own suspcions. Based on my analysis, I'd say Feanor's crafty vote makes her my top suspect.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Then yours truly blunders in and creates a situation which would have hanged both Cailin and Anguirel. I can see why this casts some suspicion on me. Well, I can only say that I should have been more attentive to the way the vote stood. My vote was cast solely for the reason I gave in my vote post -- "He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff." -- and without regard to the tally, which I see now was a mistake.

If Feanor is a wolf who held her vote until very late, she made a good one -- not tipping her hand by saving Cailin with an Anguirel vote, but creating a situation which could have led to a double-lynching that would have taken down Boromir with her fellow wolf.

I have to admit that my own analysis leaves me looking more likely a werewolf than not, but I can only plead inexperience and restate emphatically that I am innocent. Have the seer dream of me, put me to any test. I don't much like being in the position of knowing that I'm innocent but having suspicious eyes cast on me, but here I am.

The sheer guilelessness of your post leaves me leaning toward your innocence, Mr. U.. I do see, however, that your first day's errors (if that is what they were) have led immediately to some pretty astute thinking regarding Feanor.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I'm not assuming the innocence of Morm or LMP, though it does seem likely. There were six people already voted for when Morm voted; he could have easily voted for one of them if he were a wolf. I'm thinking that LMP is a wolf only if the third wolf hadn't voted yet. I'm not saying that it wouldn't be a wolvish ploy to try and vote out one of their own, but with the voting so broad, it was quite unnecessary.

If LMP is not a wolf, therefore, then the third wolf had not voted yet, which means it would have to be Enca, Mr. U., Fea, or Lhuna; just to follow your reasoning one step further, Firefoot. By the way, I think you are wise not to assume the innocence of Morm or me, not because we are werewolves, but because the evidence is too limited to draw such strong conclusions.