TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Something we seem to have forgotten from yesterday that was never answered is Formendacil's reaction in this post. I just don't want to overlook people that we had some questions of yesterday.

It was Day 1. Everyone was, to quote the famous saying: "innocent until proven guilty". Personally, I found there to be lack of substance behind Boromir's vote for me. True, ALL votes that day were random, but saying that he would vote for me just because I object to LMP's persona was just as bad as me suggesting I vote for LMP for that reason in the first place.

In retrospect, I'll admit I might have overreacted a little- although some other people's overreactions (not going to name names here...) to my overreaction were just as bad.

Unlike some others, my suspicion regarding Mr. Underhill is not waning by his greater, and wiser, notices of today, rather, they are increased by them. He is definitely clever enough to be playing a double game, and that's the sort of thing a Werewolf would do.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I know I've contributed little today except to rag on you all to stop saying "s/he's definately innocenct, s/he's definately guilty", and I'm sorry to say that it's not going to get any better right now.

I've got a load of wenching to do (aka: several hours of psych homework, 100 pages of reading for core, a one hour radio show to go to, a paper to write, my wife to murder, and Guilder to frame for it), so I'm going to vote now and be done for toDay.

++LMP

Because I'm suspicious of all that voted for Cailìn, I was already suspicious of him, and as he voted for Cailìn, surely you'll agree that my logic should fit together well.

Wish me luck on my Psych paper... I need it... more than you can imagine.

My parting words for the night: there's no such thing as being too careful. Don't drop suspicion for any reason besides "s/he's dead and we know for sure because of it." Also, keep an eye on Esty. She's my random accusation for the evening. I like to see bloodlust! And she's just not showing much.

[mormegil]

Unfortunately I haven't had much time today so I haven't been able to read since I last posted. Anyway I will vote today perhaps a bit random, perhaps not as random. Anyway to clear the air about her and I'm not 100% convinced of her yet

++Feanor

[Firefoot]

Originally posted by Esty:
Firefoot defends Shelob, who is one of my top suspects.

I'm not defending Shelob. She's one of my top suspects.

I'm going to try and make some cases against my top suspects, both to clear my own thoughts and to see if that gets anywhere...

Formendacil: He starts out proposing two main theories: either a bandwagon because that would be a true village majority, or an everybody abstain from voting. Both of these strategies would benefit the wolves because there wouldn't be a good voting record to go off of and the wolves could easily hide. When it gets time to vote, he picks out three people he considers suspicious, Morm and Ang for fairly logical reasons, and LMP because of his occupation. But when he votes he doesn't seem to be considering any of these players, voting instead for Mr. U., who he has never mentioned and doesn't even seem to be garnering much village suspicion. Perhaps he cast suspicion on innocents, then voted for a fellow wolf in an underhanded, sly sort of way that doesn't really put attention on his fellow wolf? He is also "deeply insulted" by the vote for him. Wolves do tend to overreact a little more than ordinary villagers. His analysis post on Day 2 does seem fairly logical - that's good right? Villagers are supposed to be reasonable and logical. He could be hiding, though; he didn't bring much new to the table. I'm not extremely convinced of the Formen/Mr. U. alliance, though - Formen seems to be persuing him pretty vehemently today.

Shelob: She spends a good bit of energy being annoyed with the two votes against her because she hadn't said anything. Too defensive? She spends a lot of space discussing wolvish strategy, then follows it up by saying the wolves very likely won't lynch her. Because she is a wolf? Talking about wolvish strategy - and then not following it? Then she pulls a Fea and suggests we lynch her today. She moves me up on her suspicion list, and I'm still not sure I understand her logic after reading it several times - I think because she doesn't want the wolves to be able to double-bluff their way through the game. Yet didn't she just suggest we lynch her? Then she reiterates her point that the wolves won't kill her that night. I don't think much can be drawn from her vote of Lhuna, as she was rushed. But still...

Lhuna: She is very vague in her first post, briefly mentioning suspicions of several people but nothing very solid. She is forced to break the three-way tie; she says she sees no reason to vote for Cailin, and that Boromir is almost too suspcious to be a wolf. So she votes for Ang, claiming no responsibility over the outcome. Day 2, she votes for Mr. U., for "reasons stated above" - but she's never mentioned Mr. U. before at all. Hm...

I'd like to do a couple more, but these take time, y'know... And, in case I didn't make this clear, I'm not convinced about any of these people, Lhuna least of all. I'm just building cases for how they might be werewolves and why I might vote the way I do. My next subjects were going to be Esty, TGWBS, and Encai - and I'm nearly convinced of the innocence of the first and last.

And I believe the current voting standings are

Mr. Underhill – 1 (Lhuna 1)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 2 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 1 (Morm 7)

[Encaitare]

I liked TGWBS's idea of reassessing my opinions from yesterDay, so here goes. Prepare for me to question nearly everyone in one way or another.

Shelob - Silent for most of the day, but as we share a similar predicament, I understand her plight. No suspicion at present.

Her vote seems somewhat groundless. Not saying that Lhuna is innocent, but Shelob does not back up her choice. Also, she's way too quiet. I know I've been quiet with my 2 posts a Day, but I don't see much substance to her posts. I think that if she were a gifted, she would work a little harder. She may get my vote toDay.

the guy who be short - His immediate assertion that he is not a wolf seems a bit iffy to me -- but then again, would a wolf make that kind of slip? It could have been an honest statement, or a wolf's careless mistake. I would credit TGWBS as being too clever to make slips like that, but then again, nobody's perfect.

Nothing he has said toDay makes me feel overly suspicious, so I'm going to leave him alone for now.

Boromir88 - seems very irreverent about the whole thing. Plus, he's rather rude, but that's in character. The whole attitude could be a bold bluff.

He cannot claim to be a "known innocent," although Firefoot addressed that point already.

Lhunardawen - Nothing to go on, really.

Like I said before, I don't like her extremely early vote. I know we all live in different time zones, and Fea and I have gotten some attention for consistently voting late in the Day, since that is also due to where we live. But as I also said before, Lhuna managed to vote later yesterDay. Hrmm...

Feanor of the Peredhil - I'd like to know why she wants me lynched. Could just be that she, out of her silly sense of humor, would find it amusing. She claims to have found "either two known innocent, or two known wolves". For such an outright statement, I doubt she's the Seer. But I have to wonder what she thinks she knows. Perhaps these two are LMP and B88, whom she later said she suspects.

She offers good, sound advice... although the wolves could take advantage of her assertion that wolves will be bold, especially in a game such as this. The wolves might then keep a very low profile and throw everyone off... maybe that's what Fea hopes will happen? Despite how she says we should suspect her, I really don't at the moment, though.

Formendacil - was "deeply insulted" by an accusation. Could just be the traditional first-day response to an accusation, could be a little more defensive. Yet he voted for Mr. Underhill, and although I don't think I'll do the same, I agree with his reasoning.

I feel like I don't have much to go on from him today. He sticks with his initial opinion, which could mean several things.

Estelyn Telcontar - I'm used to seeing Esty taking charge and getting things done. As a new player, I can understand how she's on the quiet side... but even so, I'd like to hear more from her.

She's still maintaining a low profile, although she has now decided more firmly whom to target: those who voted for Anguirel. Even though I am on that list, I'm glad to see that she's not still in newbie mode.

Mister Underhill - Formendacil mentioned before that he is very intelligent and seems to be "playing dumb". Could be lupine behavior.

Like with Esty, it's good to see that he's being more active. I am still a little suspicious of him, though. I shall have to see what the outcome of toDay's lynching is before I can form a stronger opinion on him.

Mormegil, Firefoot, and LMP have been addressed in my previous post (168), and I am sticking to those opinions of them for now.

As I did yesterDay, I shall return in a bit to cast my vote. Right now I am leaning towards Shelob, although if anyone else has some really good arguments I'd be glad to hear them.