TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[the guy who be short]

Shelob innocent. Oh well.

I realise this incriminates me a little. I will do my best to analyze the situation, but I must go soon. Upon my return I shall make lots of interesting little lists and suggestions and such that will most likely lead us even more astray. Sigh.

As for now, I wish only to defend my innocence, and at the same time, though she may not will it, for it will look even more like we are working together, that of Esty's.

On day one, we did not vote together for the same reasons. I suggested voting for Shelob due to her silence before Esty voted. Esty voted at random.

Yesterday, though it may look like we were working together, many villagers seemed to reach the conclusion of Shelob's guilt. Though some of these may have been wolves, I recall that Esty and I were the first to vote for her (I think).

Now, as we had already voted for her yesterday, this would be an utterly stupid thing for wolves to do. It would be too incriminating. A wolf wouldn't play a lead part in killing an innocent, it just wouldn't be clever. We were the two that called for a Shelynching.

There is always the possibility that wolves would do something that obvious as a double bluff - it being far too incriminating so that nobody would suspect them. If this were the case, then there is absolutely no chance that both wolves would do this. Therefore, only one out of Esty and I would be a wolf. I am not a wolf. However, I do not buy into this theory, and am tempted to trust Esty almost as much as I do mormegil and Firefoot.

Please also note that I was correct in seeing LMP's death. I'm pretty sure that either morm of Firefoot will go next - so if either of you are the seer, make sure to drop a few hints, will you?

That is all. Coming soon: analyses of voting patterns, why the wolves killed LMP, who I believe innocent and guilty.

[Boromir88]

And still no one bothers listens to me, I'll have you know I still have never been wrong! Hmm, Anguirel, I said was innocent, Eomer I said was innocent, Shelob I said was innocent and that we should look at the ones trying lynch her. But no, no one ever listens to me, though I've never been wrong.

More later, I must get going, I just wanted everyone to know that.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

At the moment, I can't avoid being impressed with the wolves' strategy. I'm not sure what the entirety of it is just yet, but I'm impressed. The kill of LMP was... I'd say unexpected, but if I'd been paying more attention (blast my obscenely large amounts of [wenching] homework) to the game, I'd probably have expected it. Who garnered a large number of votes already yesterday? Me. Who kept pointing her sadly inaccurate finger at LMP? Also me. Who looks most guilty because now he's dead? I'll let you fill in that answer. Whose potential lynching would seriously aid the wolves? Me...

I have a class in a few minutes, but it's not at all long. I'll be back in little more than an hour, if that. That's when you'll see me defend my actions, defend some other people's, and try to figure out who should die next. If you're wondering, the answer remains "not me." See y'all shortly.

[the guy who be short]

DAY ONE:
Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

DAY TWO:
Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 4 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9, Encai 12)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 3 (Morm 7, Mr. Underhill 10, LMP 11)

Now then, before I say anything at all of importance, I do not think LMP was killed under suspicion of Seerism.
The innocence of morm, Firefoot and LMP was agreed upon by the village (excluding Fea) on Day two. Of these, it was agreed that LMP was the most innocent looking due to the position of his vote. This is why he is dead.
Now, perhaps there is some other reason - perhaps there were hints of Seerism in his posts - but I'll warrant that was the main reason. Alternatively, the wolves could have chosen the one out of those three who looked most Seery. I will have to anaylse LMPs posts later.

Now, morm and Firefoot are innocent. Esty, I have explained, looks innocent to me at the moment, though this could change. I am innocent, though I don't expect anybody to take my word for it. Excluding these four, this is what I find:

Enca sealed Shelob's fate - the other three Shelob-voters being innocent. This could have been an attempt to save Fea's life. Enca-Fea as wolves?

Fea voted for LMP despite his looking extremely innocent.

Mr U voted Feanor at a reasonably important time. I am tempted to forgive him for Day one and trust him (sort of) now. If one is a wolf, the other is not.

Lhuna voted for Mr U early when it seemed likely he would be dying Yesterday. This could be a wolf going with the flow to hide herself. I see a potential Mr U - Lhuna wolvish alliance here.

So:

Wolves:
Feanor
Encaitare

Potential Wolves:
Mr U
Lhuna

Unsure:
Formendacil
Boromir

Most likely Innocent:
Esty

Innocents:
Firefoot
mormegil
TGWBS

This is all liable to change as I mull things over.

Coming soon: Analyses of Innocent posts.

[Firefoot]

Oh, dear, two innocents dead, and our ranger one of them. Next to losing the Seer, that's the worst that could happen - hopefully our seer will have dreamed of a wolf last night, but there's nothing the rest of us can do for that.

I highly doubt that both TGWBS and Esty are wolves. Possibly one of them, but not both. I've not yet found anything in any of their posts to suggest wolvery, but I'll probably be doing a closer analysis today.

Concerning Fea (it always comes back to her, doesn't it?), LMP's death could be one of two things: a bold bluff or a set-up. I have no doubt that Fea isn't capable of the bluff, and, of course, if they thought LMP was the Seer then it wouldn't be such a hard decision. For me, Fea is just sort of hanging between innocent and guilty - I can't make heads or tails of her.

In general, I'm not overly surprised at LMP's death - I figured it would be me, Morm, or him. Just because of that, I'm not sure much information can be taken from his death. What may need to be looked at is why him and not us - who he was accusing and how that might cause wolves to kill him over us.

My top suspect is still Formendacil, though I'm starting to think that a connection between him and Underhill is too far-fetched. Underhill also seems to have been very consistent. He's starting to drop off my radar a bit. So one of the things I will be looking for is who else Formen might be associated with, as well as other possible pairs of wolves. At this point, there should be some clues to who our wolves are, whether in voting or somewhere else.

Edit - cross-posting with TGWBS and Fea.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And still no one bothers listens to me, I'll have you know I still have never been wrong! Hmm, Anguirel, I said was innocent, Eomer I said was innocent, Shelob I said was innocent and that we should look at the ones trying lynch her. But no, no one ever listens to me, though I've never been wrong.

More later, I must get going, I just wanted everyone to know that.

So have I Boro but at least I voted for a known wolf. Plus it's not always good to be correct it might show that you know too much.

Now I've been going over things a bit and a couple of things have popped out at me, one I will talk about the other I will wait. Feanor is quite possibly innocent, I know this is a sudden move from what I said earlier but I've been thinking and will explain why. The wolves know that there are many of us who know her well and would know some of the unpredictable nature of her behavior. Now a set up for Fea isn't anything that wolf-Fea couldn't handle and the wolves know it. So my proposal is that they set her up making us think it is an attempt to pull off a double bluff so we lynch her...what would that be a triple bluff or the undefined bait and switch bluff that LMP spoke of?

Anyway my point is while Fea has moved down a bit on my list somebody else has moved up a bit. I do not want to explain why yet because I want to continue to analyze his/her behavior but I went back and looked over some post and a couple of things jumped out at me. Now I will wait and see what s/he has to say.

Now it is likely that either Firefoot or I die tonight but there is also the possibility that having said this we won't. What a great way for the wolves to again spread confusion among us by keeping us alive and everybody asking "why aren't they dead yet". We've seen it before.

[the guy who be short]

The thing with the Fea situation is that it's impossible to know whether wolves set Fea up, whether Fea was being blindingly obvious killing LMP knowing we wouldn't suspect her, or whether wolves set her up knowing we'd think she were bluffing, or whether Fea knew we would think it were a double bluff and actually killed LMP... etc. etc. I can't see it a being anything less complex than a double bluff.

So Fea basically remains Mystery Girl.

I'm more concerned about Formy and Boromir, the two people I haven't labelled yet. I shall look over their posts and should come to a decision.

Currently, I'm undecided between voting Mystery Girl and Lhuna/Mr U.

Anaylses of innocent posts may be delayed or non-existant as they have moved down in my list of priorities. I want to figure out Form and Boro.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Hello doves, I'm back. Expect a lengthy post from me in a while, as I've finally got some time to sit and analyze.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

*hums "I'm making a list, checking it twice..."

While I'm trying to gather evidence, I'd like to add what thoughts have occurred to me so far. Now, I don't know whether phantom's post indicates that the ranger was killed by primary wolf choice or while defending another villager. It would be interesting to know who it was, if the latter is true. Should it have been either the seer or the cursed villager, LMP will have saved us from a worse fate. So far, I'm not seeing evidence of the seer's identity, but we do need to lynch a wolf very soon, or the chances of them adding another are great.

Everyone has jumped on the fact that TGWBS and I voted for the same person both days, but we were not the only ones. Boro88 voted for Formy both days, and Formy voted for Underhill both days. I'm not sure what that is telling us - does one of them have more knowledge than the rest of us?


[Arnold Schwarzenegger voice:] "I'll be back!" [/voice]

[the guy who be short]

Righto. I have emerged from my underground caverns once more.

I've just gone through everything Formen and Boromir have said. I noticed:

1) Formen suspects roughly the same people as me. Seems innocent.

2) Boro suspected Sauce to start off with. This points to his innocence. However, he also claims wolves would be idiots to stay quiet - whilst being loud himself. Interesting, Eomer voted for Boro before being taken in the night. At the moment, I consider him neutral though.

Potential Wolf Pairs:
Mr U - Lhuna
Feanor - Encaitare

Neutral:
Boromir

Slightly Innocent:
Formendacil

Most likely Innocent:
Esty

Innocents:
Firefoot
mormegil
TGWBS

Possibly coming soon: Analyses of Eomer's posts on Day 1. I want to know why he died - this was never looked into on Day 2, strangely.

[mormegil]

Esty the way it works is if the Ranger protects somebody that the wolves attack then nobody dies. Therefore the wolves went for LMP. But who else jumped on your parallel voting with TGWBS other than I? TGWBS pointed it out too but nobody else? Are you nervous and trying to hide something?

Originally Posted by Esty

Everyone has jumped on the fact that TGWBS and I voted for the same person both days, but we were not the only ones.

Yes but the major difference between you and Boromir is he voted alone while you and shorty seem to follow each other.