TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[the guy who be short]

Righto. I have emerged from my underground caverns once more.

I've just gone through everything Formen and Boromir have said. I noticed:

1) Formen suspects roughly the same people as me. Seems innocent.

2) Boro suspected Sauce to start off with. This points to his innocence. However, he also claims wolves would be idiots to stay quiet - whilst being loud himself. Interesting, Eomer voted for Boro before being taken in the night. At the moment, I consider him neutral though.

Potential Wolf Pairs:
Mr U - Lhuna
Feanor - Encaitare

Neutral:
Boromir

Slightly Innocent:
Formendacil

Most likely Innocent:
Esty

Innocents:
Firefoot
mormegil
TGWBS

Possibly coming soon: Analyses of Eomer's posts on Day 1. I want to know why he died - this was never looked into on Day 2, strangely.

[mormegil]

Esty the way it works is if the Ranger protects somebody that the wolves attack then nobody dies. Therefore the wolves went for LMP. But who else jumped on your parallel voting with TGWBS other than I? TGWBS pointed it out too but nobody else? Are you nervous and trying to hide something?

Originally Posted by Esty

Everyone has jumped on the fact that TGWBS and I voted for the same person both days, but we were not the only ones.

Yes but the major difference between you and Boromir is he voted alone while you and shorty seem to follow each other.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm finding depressingly apparent things that I should have noticed before... don't worry, my big post is yet to come. But it should shed light on some things we would have done better to pick up on before. Like Eomer. And wolves' plans.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I'm finding depressingly apparent things that I should have noticed before... don't worry, my big post is yet to come. But it should shed light on some things we would have done better to pick up on before. Like Eomer. And wolves' plans.

If you are saying what I think you are going to say I may even lower you further on my suspect list.

[the guy who be short]

Yes but the major difference between you and Boromir is he voted alone while you and shorty seem to follow each other.

The lady is half dwarf, meaning she too must go to sleep several hours before the rest of you, or else turn to stone. The fact that we vote at similar hours is not, then, much of an issue.

As for voting for the same people, we have only done it twice, and if you read our posts, have different thought processes that lead us to the same conclusions.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Actually, I almost didn't vote for Shelob for the very reason that TGWBS had her at the top of his list. But I decided to vote for the person who topped my own suspect list, regardless of what others do or don't. I will do the same thing today. I'm still looking through past posts, analyzing for myself, though I am also comparing with what others post today, of course.

[the guy who be short]

I missed this in my skimming before, but Eomer openly declared himself as Hunter:

Nevertheless, you may yet be glad of my arrival, O fair townsfolk! I have much experience of combat. I am at your service.

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.

So why did he choose to kill Cailin instead of Boromir? Cailin had already voted for him when Eomer voted, so it wasn't her vote. There must have been some reason he trusted Boromir.
That said, Boromir kept carefully neutral about the vote - claiming he believe Eomer innocent despite his vote. Would a wolf have snapped at the bait? In any case, this makes Boromir seem more innocent to me.

Originally Posted by CAILIN!

I'm a little wary of Firefoot, because of her general statements, but find many (including myself) guilty of the same thing.

Lhuna and Shelob have been very silent, but I wish not to vote for someone who has not had a chance to defend herself yet.

Estelyn is playing her newbie role well and I believe she should be watched closely, not because I'm suspicious of her yet, but because I know from experience people tend to give newbies an easier time. I just noticed I'm most unwilling to lynch her and that cannot be healthy.

Casts suspicion on Firefoot. She's innocent.
Casts suspicion on Esty. Innocent.

Here's the interesting part. She says she doesn't want to vote for Shelob or Lhuna because they've had no chance to defend themselves... does this mean she was disguising the fact that Lhuna is a wolf by tarring her with the same brush as Shelob? Hmm.

[Firefoot]

Let's have a look at what he was thinking:

He started out on Day 2 here:
Wolfy - Lhuna and Mr. U.
Neutral to guilty - Fea and Encai

He started leaning towards Mr. U.'s innocence as the Day went on.

His last words:

I find Firefoot's reasoning rather persuasive, such that those she suspects have now been raised from NOT really concerned about yet, to "Questioning".

I Questioning: Mr. U. (dropped from suspect for now), Esty, Formy, & Shelob.

I Suspect: Enca & Lhuna, because of their votes for Anguirel. Yes, Enca says she's convinced of my innocence, which is something a werewolf might say; nevertheless, I'm not ready to vote for her. I'm also not yet ready to vote for Lhuna, whose vote for Anguirel could be read either way.

I Accuse: Feanor. Whereas she says the same things I say about not trusting anyone, she keeps on pointing her radar at me. If she's a werewolf, she knows I'm innocent, and I don't put it past her to continue to accuse someone most others seem to have accepted on the strength of my vote for Cailin, which would seem foolish for a werewolf to do, but Feanor is so capable of the double and triple bluff, that she's going to have to supply more proof (like being lynched and turning out to be innocent, for example) before I'm convinced she's not a wolf. There's just too much doubt and centripital force surrounding this individual to leave her in the game to cause further confusion.

++ Feanor

Edit: Cross-posted with Mr. Underhill, and glad to see we voted alike.

It seems likely to me that one (maybe both) of the wolves would be on LMP's suspect or questioning list. That would be Esty, Formendacil, Mr. U., Encai, or Lhuna. If there were a wolf that wasn't on his list, I would be most inclined to suspect TGWBS, who I am extremely unsure about. He seems innocent, but I can't help but suspect him. I am currently inclined towards believing that killing LMP was a set up of Fea.

I would really like to hear more from Lhuna, which unfortunately probably won't happen before I go to sleep tonight. There just isn't enough to go off for her. I'd also like to hear more from Encai, as she is seeming more suspicious to me yet there's not a lot to back it up one way or the other.

[Encaitare]

The first thing I would like to address is the fact that people are taking note of the fact that I did break the tie between Fea and Shelob. However, don't look at the votes alone. In post 190, I as good as said that I would be voting for her:

Originally Posted by me

As I did yesterDay, I shall return in a bit to cast my vote. Right now I am leaning towards Shelob, although if anyone else has some really good arguments I'd be glad to hear them.

When I said this, the voting situation was like this:

Mr. Underhill – 1 (Lhuna 1)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 2 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 1 (Morm 7)

Think about it. If I had actually cast the vote at that time, would it be as big a deal? It has been suggested that Fea and I are the two remaining wolves. When I cast my vote, there was a tie between Shelob and Fea, and Mr. Underhill had two. If Fea and I were wolves together, I could have voted for Mr. U, thereby lynching both him and Shelob, and skipping over Fea.

I am now going to go through what has been said thus far and then post further thoughts.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Right now I'm going back to my theory that one of the votes for Anguirel on the first day was cast by a wolf. I was wrong with my first suspect, Shelob. I am now looking very closely at Encai; she voted for both lynched innocents on both days. On the second day, she broke a tie, thereby saving Fea's neck. On the first day, her vote came when Cailín was leading, creating a bandwagon effect for Anguirel, and away from the one wolf we know of so far. This would make me suspect Fea as her ally, though I'm not sure of my reasoning yet.

(cross-posted with Firefoot and Encai...)

[the guy who be short]

Esty, I have already mentioned a potential Enca-Fea team in an earlier post.

However, I did not notice that Enca had previously stated she would be voting Shelob. This does make her seem less suspicious.

Lhuna and Fea, followed by Mr U and Enca, seem most suspicious to me at the moment. I will probably vote for one of the former, and am leaning towards Lhuna.

[the guy who be short]

Morm:

1) Please explain why you suspect Formendacil.

2) Your crypticisms are most annoying.

[Boromir88]

Here's the interesting part. She says she doesn't want to vote for Shelob or Lhuna because they've had no chance to defend themselves... does this mean she was disguising the fact that Lhuna is a wolf by tarring her with the same brush as Shelob? Hmm.~TGWBS

That's quite possible. I admit I said the same thing on the regards of Shelob and Lhuna on the first day, but that's the way I always am. Quietness usually isn't something that wolves do, especially on Day 1. They like to get out there and manipulate early, then sort of ride along with the "loudmouths." I'm considering Lhuna as a possible wolf.

With that being said, I was strong against Feanor as a wolf yesterday, today I'm less sure, because of lmp's death. Either Fea is pulling a bold bluff, or the wolves are trying to set her up, I think it's the latter. The wolves knew that at the end of yesterday Fea was attracting suspicion, so they set her up at night with lmp's death and have an easy victim that they think people will go after the next day. So, Fea's not a wolf, atleast from this moment (it may change).

So, who's our other wolf? I'm still considering mormegil, though nothing big. Firefoot I'm pretty convinced is innocent, after voting for Cailin, and then as tgwbs shows Cailin accusing her.

Since I think Fea was set up lastnight I think anyone that tries to push for her lynching is somewhat suspicious. Unless if someone here can convince me that Fea is pulling a bluff and not being set up?

[Encaitare]

Going down the list...

TGWBS - Not really sure, but I'd like to respond to this:

Originally Posted by el tipo bajo

Boro suspected Sauce to start off with. This points to his innocence.

Huh? There be no Sauce in this village. Methinks Boro was confused or making a joke.

Boromir88 - I still suspect him based on that "known innocent" comment. A wolf trying too hard, perhaps?

Feanor of the Peredhil - The fact that LMP voted for her could be telling. She might be a wolf who decided to off the only one who suspected her enough to make that vote. Her vehemence about how the wolves would be bluffing left and right makes me wonder if she put the image of loudmouth wolves in our minds, and then quietly killed LMP, most contrarily to her hypotheses about wolvish behavior. *goes mad trying to make sense of this*

Formendacil - As I said yesterday, his voting is interesting. What he does today could be telling.

Estelyn Telcontar - Her dramatic lament in post 205 was a bit much, I think.

Alas, my sister needs to use the computer for a project, which means that I shall have to return later. I'm sorry this post is so brief.

[mormegil]

For those who believe that Firefoot and I are innocent my advice regarding the Fea-problem is to wait and see what she has to say in this alleged long post of hers. Let's wait and see what she has to say and analyze it from there. We are currently all talking ourselves in circles about her. One thing to be certain is that a Fea-wolf wouldn't shy away from accusing fellow wolves openly.

[Boromir88]

To clear up the Sauce thing once and for all, I wasn't making a joke, I honestly thought he was a player for some unknown reason. I think I was so excited to start this "experienced" Werewolf...thing, I just assumed Sauce was in it. And as far as my other suspicions those were jokes, I just thought it be fun to pick 3 random people label them as wolves and see how close I was .

With that being said I think I'll probably vote for Formendacil (what a surprise?) or Encaitare today.

And I think Feanor is being set up, that's basically what I'm thinking right now if you must know.

Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, and if you vote for me you'll end up dying, that's just the way it is. It's a sign that you don't vote for a known innocent.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Estelyn Telcontar - Her dramatic lament in post 205 was a bit much, I think.

I'm sorry if that post aggravated you - I was just trying to get into the role playing spirit of things and have a bit of fun, especially as it was morning and I didn't yet have time to write an analyzing post. Those who know my writing from the "Entish Bow" RPG may recognize my tendency to facetiousness and to exaggeration. There's so much out of character exchange during the day - I'm way out of character now! - that I thought it would be enjoyable to recapture a bit of that. However, if all prefer to drop any role-playing, I shall bow to the majority.