TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Firefoot... Seer? That was completely unexpected.

Here's what I thought: Boromir was the Seer.

I thought the same, tgwbs, because he spoke so definitely about his suspicion of Formendacil. However, he isn't, and that leaves a whole different interpretation of the same facts wide open. What if Boromir is the remaining wolf, who deliberately voted for Formy, a known wolf, all along to get us to trust him? Then his accusation of Enca would be a false trail! I know that goes against my own premise of the four who voted for Anguirel, but as I don't know definitely who's innocent or guilty, anything is possible.

I still have to go through Firefoot's posts and find out what clues there are to her being a Seer. How could the wolf recognize her?

[the guy who be short]

I too will be going through her posts. However, I find it likely that the wolf had no idea she was the Seer - Firefoot, morm and LMP were the Three Angels, so to speak, whom nobody suspected. With LMP gone, either Firefoot or morm was going to die last night. The Wolf just got lucky.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I think it very likely that the wolf was after the seer - I would be, if I were a wolf! After all, the other gifted villagers were taken care of, and if the seer had come out with information, she would have been dangerous. This makes me wonder all the more whether Boromir was trying to play with our minds by posing as the seer, either to draw out the real one or to get the rest of us to gang up on an innocent villager.

[mormegil]

Okay I'm back and though I was in bed I slept very little I spent some time thinking and I have a strategy that I want to present. I will explain it later but whatever you do don't vote yet!

[Boromir88]

On how I knew Formendacil was a wolf...

Well, I didn't really "know" per se, but I had a strong feeling. My Day 1 vote was more or less just random. Day 2, I didn't think Shelob was guilty and no one really changed my mind as to who a wolf was, so I stuck with Formendacil. Day 3, I believed (and I hope he doesn't mind) mormegil was the Seer. One because he did catch onto Cailin, and two he came strong after Formendacil. So I believed he was the Seer and dreamed of Formendacil which kept me to stick with Formendacil.

As I said before, go ahead and lynch me Estelyn, it'll just be a wasted day and I can't believe this village is so stupid to still consider me a wolf. As of right now I stand by that Enca is the last wolf, who tried to turn voting against me yesterday.

Honestly, you have to ask yourself would a wolf vote for another wolf 3 straight days and be so vital in a fellow wolf downfall? Especially early in the game when Formendacil was not attracting much suspicion at all, just from me? If you think so, then you people are just crazy.

Estelyn is now popping into my head as another wolf. Who I think is trying to conjure up a theory to get me hanged, because I was so crucial in another wolf's demise perhaps?

I'll have you know that I haven't been wrong yet, only on the fact that I believed mormegil was the Seer, and not Firefoot. Which might seem incriminating to some extent, but if you want to get rid of someone who is a good judge on who's innocent and who's not, then it's your own loss.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I have a strategy that I want to present. I will explain it later but whatever you do don't vote yet!

I also have a strategy idea, morm, and remembering the one you had one Day, it could be that we're thinking along the same lines. I'm not sure how wise it is to come out early with it, so I'm waiting a bit as well.

In the meantime, I'd like to present my percentage list of the remaining players:

100% innocent - me (The only one of whom I absolutely know)

90% innocent - Underhillo (reasons given above)

80% innocent - tgwbs (for seemingly good reasoning so far)

80% innocent - mormegil (also for seemingly good reasoning so far)

50% innocent/guilty - Fea (just because she's too confusing to get a grasp on)

very suspicious - Encaitare (for the reasons I gave yesterDay)

highly suspicious - Boromir88 (for the reasons given toDay)


more to come...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Estelyn Telcontar

What if Boromir is the remaining wolf, who deliberately voted for Formy, a known wolf, all along to get us to trust him?

*cough* Then I'd have been right all along with my Boromir bashing? I'd only just begun to think that he was the Seer based on his insistence at Weremendacil. But then again, I was a little worried about his talk about never assuming the innocence of anybody, and yet saying that he pretty much trusted the Innocent Three. Way to be a hypocrite, no?

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Mr. Underhill - I'm not too concerned about him. His posts seem to have been written in good faith, and some of his comments, though brief, have been very shrewd. I'm not going to discount him, but I think there are several people who are far more suspicious than he is right now.

Originally Posted by morm

This was her last post about Mister Underhill it would seem to say that he's innocent and that she dreamt of him.

Quite the contrary, she says "I'm not going to discount him" which makes me think she didn't dream of him.

Originally Posted by mormy

Edit: cross post with Fea....Why did you forget Encai? Also I think Underhill is cleared by what I've said. It's nice to know that we can't have 2 wolves working together now though.

Because it was almost 2:00 AM? Okay, Encai: Day One: votes innocent (Ang), suspects guilty (Cailin), gives decent strategy. Day Two: votes innocent (Shelob) which saves me, suspects innocent plus two unknowns. Day Three: votes Boromir, who may or may not be a really ballsy wolf. The biggest thing to bother me about Encai is that she saved me. I have no idea why she did it. I won't deny being relieved about it, because who actually wants to die in these villages? When you die, your spirit watches helpless as the village stumbles around, and the worst thing is, usually the second you die, you know who at least one wolf is.

Here's Firefoot's say on the matter: she didn't dream of Encai. "I haven't seen anything to strongly suggest her guilt" which means she hadn't dreamt yet and "I'd like to have a close look at her tomorrow" which I take to mean she planned on it.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

What's to be said? She makes me nervous, but I do feel like she was set up. I'm not so sure that there isn't something in the Fea/Encai theory

This changed my mind. I don't think she dreamt of me, or she'd have said "As I'm seeing evidence that Fea might have been set up, I think this theory is a bit far-fetched" or something like that. I love how she uses the word see. I didn't notice it until I started looking for it. Could somebody be a dove and find all of her uses of it while I'm away at my [wenching] classes? I won't be back until mid-afternoon, like I mentioned before I went to bed. I'm surprised I woke up early enough to post this, to be honeset.

EDIT: cross-post with Boromir.

Especially early in the game when Formendacil was not attracting much suspicion at all, just from me? If you think so, then you people are just crazy.

Surely everyone's heard by now that I'm "Bonkers as Conkers"? Crazy works. Especially after logic fails.

[Boromir88]

Ok some further thoughts...

I think it's safe to say that Firefoot dreamed of me. She never jumped onto the growing suspicion of me, just said I was playing stupidly and not focusing on the task. Also, I was under much suspicion under Day 1, it would be logical to assume that either Day 2, or 3 she dreamed of me.

Sorry for the let down in everyone thinking I was the Seer. If it makes any sense I was trying to disguise myself as the Seer, to sort of shield the real Seer (who I thought was definitely mormegil and I can see that was wrong). I had put my life on the line thinking that mormegil was the Seer and that he dreamed of Formendacil. Basically thinking if Form's a wolf, I'm innocent, if not I'm a dead man. But no matter what I do it just seems like no one takes my innocence.

[Boromir88]

Hmm, I seem to be cross-posting with Estelyn who thinks I'm guilty for some reason?

Need I say I brought down a wolf, while you were crucial in Shelob's lynching.

Actually, I'm almost about to say just lynch me, so I'll be out of your hair if no one takes my innocence. I'm growing more and more suspicious of Estelyn, who sees that I'm a threat to wolves and wants to get rid of me. So, hey lynch me, but who here has been the best judge on who's innocent and who's a wolf? But, lynch me, if that's what you guys want, I can think of no other way to get through to you people that I'm gosh darn innocent here.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Boromir, as far as I know, you are an experienced Werewolf player. I do not know your past record, i.e. which roles you have played, but I credit you with the intelligence and chutzpah to dupe us all. I would be a poor player (and I hope that despite being a first time gamer here, I'm not stupid) if I took your words at face value. You're right, you can't trust me either, but please don't expect me to believe you without some reason!

Yes, I was involved in Shelob's lynching, but at that time (second day, with little evidence to go on) I thought I had reason to suspect her. The only way to avoid innocent victims is by knowing who is or is not a werewolf - and only werewolves have that information! (And the seer, but only for those few nights...)

You have a right to be defensive, but it can make you look like you have a reason.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Feanor

Quite the contrary, she says "I'm not going to discount him" which makes me think she didn't dream of him

Feanor I'm not sure why you are being so obtuse but please read this again posted by Firefoot in post 210

Originally Posted by Firefoot

My top suspect is still Formendacil, though I'm starting to think that a connection between him and Underhill is too far-fetched. Underhill also seems to have been very consistent. He's starting to drop off my radar a bit. So one of the things I will be looking for is who else Formen might be associated with, as well as other possible pairs of wolves. At this point, there should be some clues to who our wolves are, whether in voting or somewhere else.

I believe this was her first post of the day and up until this point she strongly suspected Mister Underhill but now she doesn't suspect him much? Why the sudden change? She still suspects Formendacil though. My theory after quickly reading all of her posts is that Night 1 she dreamt of me, Night 2 Formendacil and Night 3 Mister Underhill. It would make sense if you read her post to think of her dreams as those people in that order. So no I do not believe, as you do now too, that she dreamt of you.

My plan will be rolled out shortly and I believe, if implemented, will be a great value to the village.

[Boromir88]

Boromir, as far as I know, you are an experienced Werewolf player. I do not know your past record, i.e. which roles you have played, but I credit you with the intelligence and chutzpah to dupe us all.

I'm grateful for the compliment. I'll have you know I tell it like it is. I tell you what I think. You can either take what I say and accept it or not. I can say it's your own loss (unless you're the last wolf) if I'm lynched.

You're right, you can't trust me either, but please don't expect me to believe you without some reason!

Bringing down another wolf, if anything isn't good enough?

Enough with these crazy and ludicrous theories about wolves backstabbing eachother. Sometimes the facts are right in front of your face and you're too busy concentrating on wild and whacky theories to see who the real villains are.

The only way to avoid innocent victims is by knowing who is or is not a werewolf - and only werewolves have that information! (And the seer, but only for those few nights...)

Or a good judge of character and what werewolves do.

I didn't think Anguirel and Eomer were wolves even when voting for me, because wolves don't typically vote early and Anguirel just picked a random person who happened to be me and on Day 1, that's really all you can do.

I didn't think Shelob or Lhuna were wolves because they were quiet, and wolves aren't usually quiet. I've learned not to vote for quiet people. You got to watch out for the ones that don't say a lot, but say a good amount and try to mold opinion or bandwagon. And often flip-flop to adjust to the public opinion.

I think Fea is being set up. While it's possible that she may be a wolf doing a bold bluff wolves love to set people up. As they tried to do on Day 1 to me. (by killing Eomer). I think Fea is being set up because coming into the closing of the day her name was being thrown in there with Encai's and she'd be an easy target to go after the next day. Luckily needless to say, I stepped up and said she was being set up. (Though again she still may be a wolf).

You have a right to be defensive, but it can make you look like you have a reason.

Umm...maybe because I'm innocent and as far as I'm concerned have been the best judge to who's a wolf and who's not.

Having said all this, I'm now cooled in my suspicion of Estelyn. Her concerns seem geniune to me. I will give you this, crazy theories are fun to think of, and trying to catch a bluff, but going with your gut feeling and the obvious "wolf" traits is what gets the villagers to victory.

[Boromir88]

One thing that I would like to hear from Boromir is what was the comment about if you die Encai will certainly die too? Please explain.~mormegil

I was more kidding. On Day 1 Anguirel and Eomer both voted for me. Anguirel was hanged, Eomer was killed. So I went along and just said people who vote for me end up dying because they're voting for a known innocent and that's something you shouldn't do.

Fea, I disagree with the double-lynching. One because, I'm not a wolf. Two, Encai who I think is the most wolfish one may not be. We have a strong advantage 6-1, if we do a double lynching of myself and Encai by the next day the villagers will be up 3-1. Still an advantage but if you don't catch that last wolf, it's over, villagers lose. No, a double-lynching is something I think a wolf would want in this situation.

Hey, everyone thinks I'm a wolf. It's funny how morm, firefoot, lmp find a wolf and they're praised as saviours. I catch a wolf and it would make me a backstabber to Formendacil, if I was a wolf. I'm going to say...LYNCH ME, so I'm out of everyone's problems, and you can get to see who the real wolves are. I do say I strongly disagree with Fea's plan of a double-lynching.

[mormegil]

Boromir I hope I can believe you that you were trying to pretend to be the seer, I for one bought into it. I think the reason I bought into it though was because I believed Encai to be guilty, seemingly the wolf did not which, if you are innocent, would have a clearing effect upon Encai if you follow me.

My plan is simple and it follows along with what Fea said, I think we should do a double lynching today orchestrated by Mister Underhill and me. I use us for two reasons we are innocent and live in areas that allow us to vote the last minute. I would recommend that we choose two people and get them lynched together. I use this strategy because now that there aren't any gifteds left it's most likely that known innocents will die next that is Mister Underhill and me. So we need to capitalize on these two nights where we will have innocents with us. We are currently 7 villagers 2 known innocents so 5 total if we kill two that happen to not be a wolf we will be down to 4 and can do a possible double lynching the next day. We may actually be able to spot the wolf trying to influence the vote or abstain. This is our best shot.

Now it is important that we pick correctly today so as to avoid a difficult situation tomorrow. As for myself I am convinced of Underhill's innocence and it will be difficult to convince me otherwise.

[the guy who be short]

In his first few posts Formy argues against morm and his strategies. I count this as further proof of morm's innocence.

He then goes on to say he has no reason to suspect anybody, but for lack of any evidence, will suspect Ang, LMP and morm. Again, morm is lumped with two innocents.

On the first Day he votes for Mr U. I'm willing to interpret this as meaning Mr U isn't a wolf.

It is difficult to analyse Formen's first long post. It more or less says "I think everybody is innocent."

Fea and Mister Underhill top the list, with Lhuna and Encai sitting somewhat lower. After that, I think it either TGWBS or Boromir, but those two register very low on the suspicion scale...

It's hard to know what to make of this. I am quite sold on the Borowolf theory now, and that looks like Formen is trying to mention Boro without being suspicious enough to lynch him.

Unlike some others, my suspicion regarding Mr. Underhill is not waning by his greater, and wiser, notices of today, rather, they are increased by them. He is definitely clever enough to be playing a double game, and that's the sort of thing a Werewolf would do.

I'm becoming more and more certain of Mr U's innocence.

Fea and Mister Underhill as the most likely suspects

Fea... innocent?

The really difficult thing about analysing anything Form says is his ambiguity. He claims somebody looks suspicious for one reason, but then innocent for another.

Wolves?:
Fea

Probably Wolves?:
Mister Underhill,
Encaitare

Relatively Neutral?
Lhunardawen,
Boromir,
Estelyn,
TGWBS,

Mostly Innocent:
Firefoot,
Mormegil

Maybe I'm just looking for it, but I keep seeing all this as pointing to Boro's wolvery. It's possible that Enca could be the other wolf, but I doubt it is Fea or Mr U.

He votes for Fea, making her seem innocent again.


That was incredibly ambiguous. Now, as I see it, either Fea is a cunning wolf, Boro is a cunning wolf, or Enca is a wolf. Mr U I doubt.

[the guy who be short]

I agree with Feanor's plan.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I think it's safe to say that Firefoot dreamed of me.

I disagree entirely. She said that either you're playing a bold game of wolf or you're playing stupidly as an innocent. That either, along with giving 50% likelihood of you being lupine means that there was no dream, or she'd have leant one way or the other.

Though you guys are being tight-lipped about your plan, here's mine: double-lynch Boromir and Encai. The two top suspects, from what I see. If if we're wrong on both, there will be enough villagers left to still have survival chances. Mind you, I think one of the two is a wolf... but I could always be wrong. I keep doing that these days.

Off to the Psychology of Wenching. Ta ta.

[mormegil]

I thought my voting record, the fact that I exposed two wolves, and the Firefoot's (the seer) continued statements of my innocence would prove my innocence. I seem to be the most innocent and therefore my reliable to trust. Esty on the other hand is not proven innocent by any means. Firefoot only said she didn't think her guilty but the last day still questioned her. If I am still alive tomorrow feel free to lynch me but please trust me in this case. I'm still not sure who the second person will be. Perhaps there won't even be one. I'm not 100% decided yet and probably will ask both Esty and Mr U for counsel in the matter. For this to work we need a known innocent at the helm and I'm the best candidate.

Edit: Fea please stick with the voting I outlined.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay. I'll be nice and follow the rules like a good little girl.

Is there any way to have certainty though, of who's going to die? I'd like it to be either TGWBS and Boromir88, or TGWBS and Encai. I'm still by no means convinced of Boromir. I just... am stuck on him. I can't make the feeling go away. In any case, I've got some more homework to do, so I'll stick my head in in a bit and probably vote then.

[Encaitare]

Hopefully I have made my reasoning clear in my analysis of Boromir's posts. If he is innocent, then shame on me; I will have been wrong yet again. Yet please take note that all of my votes have been made for good reasons, and I am not the only one to have voted for only known innocents or those whose identities we do not yet know -- far from it. ToDay's vote will be for one whom I genuinely suspect:

++ BOROMIR88

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by morm

Edit: and speaking of Encai why hasn't she voted?

Cross-posted with you, morm. I was reviewing the thread, hence my vote came later than you expected. My apologies.

[Mister Underhill]

Well, the plot thickens. Here I was looking over Enca's posts and starting to think "less guilty", then she glides in and screws up the plan. Not sure what to make of it or how to salvage the situation here...

[Encaitare]

Oh, crap. Forgive me, that was a genuine mistake. In fact, you probably won't be able to forgive me. I really made an error; let me try to see if it can be fixed.

[Encaitare]

The votes are like this:

TGWBS voted TGWBS
Boromir88 voted Boromir88
Encaitare voted Boromir88

Since TGWBS, B88, and myself are the prime suspects...

Feanor can vote Enca
Esty can vote Enca
Mister U can vote TGWBS
Mormegil can tiebreak?

Again, I just really screwed up. It's late, and I'm tired, and it was a mistake. If you believe nothing else I have said, please believe this.

[Encaitare]

I'm going to bed now... I really need sleep. Good night.

[mormegil]

Mister what do you think, was she genuine? Now we can't get TGWBS and another. We could get Boromir and any other but not TGWBS and I'm more convinced of Boro's innocence than of TGWBS.

Well, the plot thickens. Here I was looking over Enca's posts and starting to think "less guilty", then she glides in and screws up the plan. Not sure what to make of it or how to salvage the situation here...

I was feeling the same. I was beginning to believe she might be innocent but I just don't know now.

[Mister Underhill]

I, for one, am willing to put morm in the driver's seat. It's a risk, of course, but of all the villagers left he seems far the most likely to be innocent. Also, if he's a wolf driving the boat, he has no end-game. If he were to orchestrate taking down three innocents tonight (double-lynching plus a wolf-slaying), that'd leave him down 3 to 1 -- or worst case scenario, 3-2 if he bagged a cursed -- where he would be the prime candidate for lynching. The numbers just don't seem to be there for him to be a wolf.

I'm way up in the air right now about the other three: Boro and his scattershot tactics, Fea the Controversial, and Enca "I've been quietly key in several votes but it's all innocent, really!"

Keep posting everyone, I need more information.

[Mister Underhill]

Ai, just realized also that we never got an in-depth analysis of Fea because Boro folded -- while still proclaiming her as a victim of a wolf-setup.

But we have great analyses of the least suspected villagers...

[mormegil]

I did a brief overview of Encai though I have not yet of Fea. I haven't had time to post anything about Encai but she has only 13 or so post so it didn't take too long. Fea on the other hand may be a bit longer.

Edit: and speaking of Encai why hasn't she voted?