TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Fea

Right now, believing that Footie dreamt of Esty and okays her

I disagree wholly on this point. Esty was not dreamt of, otherwise why would Firefoot ask her "what if" post. Remember the one, yesterday, in which she questioned the possibility of Esty being guilty. She did an analysis and didn't find any culpable in her but that doesn't mean she innocent or was dreamt of. I tend to believe that she is sincere and genuine but I'm not going to right her off as innocent. This surprised me coming from you Fea, aren't you the one that didn't want to believe that LMP, Firefoot and I are innocents? Why Esty?

Now I've done my analysis of TGWBS and have little to add on what Mister Underhill preempted.

post 206 there is this part in it that bothers me

Please also note that I was correct in seeing LMP's death. I'm pretty sure that either morm of Firefoot will go next - so if either of you are the seer, make sure to drop a few hints, will you?

It seems that he's under the guise of an innocent trying to get the seer to come forward and low and behold the next night our seer is dead.

Also in this same post there is too much talk from him of him being innocent and he seems to try and identify himself with me a bit too much and I felt uneasy about this when it happened but kept waiting and watching.

Post 164 there is this paragraph

Hmm. Morm voted when two other people had two votes each, so it looked unlikely Cailin would die. He could still be a wolf, I guess, but looks neutral to me at the moment.
Firefoot and LMP are not wolves. Definite. There is simply no reason a wolf would willingly vote for one of their own on the first day when there was a serious chance of that wolf being voted off, no matter what Feanor claims

I moved down on his innocence list and listed LMP and Firefoot as definate. I think he could have seen that others thought I could be guilty and decided to see if I would be lynched but guess who dies the next two nights? Correct LMP then Firefoot.

So it would seem that either TGWBS is incredibly wolfish and enjoyes dropping hints or has been rather unlucky in his words and the wolves picked people that matched his innocence list. I wouldn't be sad about seeing him go today but if he is I strongly recommed a double lycnhing with somebody else as I don't find him as suspicious as others. Namely Fea and Encai.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

This surprised me coming from you Fea, aren't you the one that didn't want to believe that LMP, Firefoot and I are innocents? Why Esty?

There was no known Seer defending you, Footie, and LMP three days running. Even without a dream, Firefoot's not sloppy. If she'd have seen something that made her suspect Esty, she'd have made it clear. As it is, Esty's got three days of defense in her favor, with the only suspicion as "I'm not positive, but I'm pretty gosh-darned sure." Firefoot's pretty sure is most people's "I'm absolutely certain." Mind, I'll kick myself if she's guilty, but based on that nice lengthy dissection I just did, I don't think she is anyhow.

So it would seem that either TGWBS is incredibly wolfish and enjoyes dropping hints or has been rather unlucky in his words and the wolves picked people that matched his innocence list.

So should we double on Boromir and TGWBS?

Mister Underhill: yes, I meant Eomer. But very shortly after I thought "Hey, maybe his insistence on looking for clues might be TOREstel in WWJ all over again." he died. It was somewhat ironic. But you'd probably have had to follow WWJ to understand my quote just now. And with Boromir, I didn't start thinking he was Seer until the late late hours of last night when I was reading the phantom's first narration post. That theory was smashed to bits when I saw Firefoot's name.

PS: the bolding in my Esty post is purely accidental, but it'll be a royal pain to go fix it, so you'll just have to deal.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

My suggested double for lynching remains Boro and Enca. But we're going to get a three-way vote, I presume, so the first voters should go for their conviction. The last ones should try to even things up so that there are at least two people with two votes each, but none with three.

So far, we have one vote, tgwbs for himself.

[mormegil]

I'm starting to think about the Boro/Encai and while I've been highly suspicious of Encai since nearly the beginning I'm wondering now if Boromir used the ploy of pretending to be seer to have us believe him on this day. The reason being if we believe he is genuine (which he could be but I'm viewing it now as he is not) then we think him innocent because he tried to protect the seer. However if Encai had been a wolf then she would have picked up on that and killed him last night...right???? I'm notorious for my crazy ideas and theories so I guess what I'm saying is that it seems to be a waste to vote for both. I would rather see Feanor or TGWBS and one of the Boromir/Encai duo.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Let's not kill me, hm? I promise that's not a cool idea.

Morm... what changed your mind from "I think Fea was framed" to "let's kill her anyways"?

[mormegil]

Yes Fea but still something isn't sitting right and you're our resident enigma and finding out for sure would clear up some air.

I thought that I already answered this question Fea. Your simply such an unknown factor and lately you seem oddly sincere and as you stated if we believe you to be innocent that's when we should lynch you But there is still the chance that we choose TGWBS.

I just want everybody to know how horribly confused I am right now and I must say that I am glad Lhuna is gone because to add one more in the mix would probably send in mental overload and fry my feeble brain.

[Encaitare]

It's taken me a bit to read through all the posts and I have to go out again in about 5 minutes. So just a couple of things I'd like to throw out there...

1. I had no idea Formen was a wolf -- I thought he might be the Seer, since he voted for Underhill twice when there was really little suspicion cast on him otherwise. I alluded to this idea in a couple of other posts when I said that Formen's voting was interesting and we might want to watch it closely. Obviously I was wrong about that one.

2. Fea wonders why I saved her. For the record, I didn't "save" her at all. There's nothing to be curious about. I merely thought that Shelob was more suspicious than Fea. I always end up voting late due to my time zone.

3.

Originally Posted by morm

I'm wondering now if Boromir used the ploy of pretending to be seer to have us believe him on this day.

This was tied into the theory I had going in point 1. I thought that since Formen might be the Seer, Boromir couldn't be, and that he was a wolf pretending to be.

I have to go tutor now; I'll be back in 2 hours or so (7 PM EST). I hope you all vote wisely toDay.

[Mister Underhill]

Let me see if I can sum up top suspects:

Esty - B88 and Enca
morm - Fea and (Enca or tgwbs, leaning towards Enca?)
tgwbs - Enca and himself! (alternatively suspects Fea and Mister U)
B88 - opposes double-lynching, thinks Fea is being set up, hasn't named his top suspect for the day I don't think. May suspect Enca?
Fea - willing to go along with double lynching, hasn't named suspects AFAICT, but trusts Esty and morm.
Enca - quiet all day, w/notice. We're approaching the 5pm EST deadline quickly here, so we ought to hear from Enca soon.
Mister Underhill - Fea and (Enca or tgwbs)

Sorry, Fea, there's just too much doubt surrounding you. Maybe B88 can convince me otherwise once he finally names his suspects.

I'd probably have let tgwbs off the hook until he made that self-vote. I can't think of any sensible reason to do it except as a desperate wolf gambit.

Enca I suspect based on the voting record. Of all the days to be AWOL! Is it wolfish laying-low or the fickle hand of RL -- or both? Whatever she posts when she arrives will be telling. Plus, who's supposed to be doing analysis of her?

EDIT -- D'oh - massive cross-posting... will read up and reassess ASAP.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Here's morm's suggested list again:

mormegil
the guy who be short
Encaitare
Boromir88
Feanor of the Peredhil
Estelyn Telcontar
Mister Underhill

That means tgwbs should be analyzing Enca. However, since he already voted, I have no idea if he'll be back again toDay.

[Mister Underhill]

Dang -- two top candidates have escaped in-depth analysis. tgwbs would theoretically have taken Enca. Doesn't help his case that he decided to drop the ball there.

We should have caught that Enca wouldn't be around to do Boro -- and now new theories about him are coming to the fore.

To clean up the above a bit:

morm - (Fea or tgwbs) and (B88 or Enca)
Enca - seems to suspect B88 above all others, but we still need to hear more.

I'm as confused as you are, morm, though it seems we can narrow to at least four top suspects:

Fea
B88
Enca
tgwbs

I think Fea almost has to be on the list. If she were an innocent villager, she could have been a lot more helpful; instead, each day has seen her surrounded by confusion and doubt. She makes statements one way, then has to recant or back up her statements with more explanation. She may be innocent after all, but she's on almost everyone's list.

The other three are a coin-toss at this point.

If anyone can hop on some quick Boro and/or Enca analysis, that would be great. My next few hours are going to be tough until the evening vote starts to roll around.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm sorry, I'm no longer alert enough for additional analysis - I refer you to my previous posts on both Boromir and Encaitare for my thoughts on them. I'm off to get a few hours of sleep now so that I can come back early to vote (that's late in terms of voting deadline...). G'night all!

[Boromir88]

I'll go along with the double-lynching, since it seems as everyones all gung-ho.

I'm going to say you should lynch me and tgwbs. I can't stress enough to you that I'm innocent, but apparently only my death will get you people to see. I think tgwbs may be a wolf. He hasn't actually been all that helpful if you think about it. First, he asks mormegil why he's so suspicious of Form, then simply votes for Lhuna for really no reason...or the same reason he voted for Shelob. Now he's not helpful in analyzing Encai, it appears that his "suicide" comes off as a bold attempt to try do what I did. So, right now I think me and tgwbs should be up for a double-lynching.

But, I do say, let's talk some more. If you don't think tgwbs to be a wolf, then it should be me and someone else, we can't afford to lose two innocents here. In any event I've come to the decision that I can no longer be of any good to anyone here, despite the fact that I've been one of the most helpful.

So, my suggestion would be lynch...

me/tgwbs

or

me/someone else

[Boromir88]

I'll be quite honest in that, I'm getting quite irritated (it's a carry over effect from last time when I didn't believe morm, he still haunts me!) So, I'm just going to give it up...

++Boromir

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Fea - willing to go along with double lynching, hasn't named suspects AFAICT, but trusts Esty and morm.

I didn't name actual suspects? I could have sworn... Oh well, I've got too much work to do to go back and check at this point, but I could have sworn that I made it apparent that I've wanted Boromir dead since Day One. I have a rather fixed plan of voting for him tonight. I would really like to see Boromir and TGWBS lynched. They are my top suspects, and have been all day. I really though I'd said that...

In any case, they've already helped us out, voting for themselves. It means that we don't have to worry about them showing up late to stop the vote.

But also, Encai worries the aich ee double hockey sticks out of me. If TGWBS isn't one of the lynchees, please let Encai be.

*returns to reading Silence by Shusaku Endo... chapter 7, doing good!*