Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[Lalaith]

I think it is best to assume we are dealing with clever wolves. At this stage in the game, clever wolves will be going all out to kill the person they think might be the Seer. That is obvious. Therefore, the belief, voiced by myself, tar-a and Anguirel, that the wolves thought Kuru might be the Seer, is actually an obvious statement.
(Celuien, I think you misunderstood me, I never thought Kuru was the Seer. I have my own theories on that, which I'm certainly not going to discuss openly when wolves are listening.)

So what else do wolves do? Firstly, unlike the rest of us, they know exactly who is innocent. So one way to spot a wolf is by looking for people who seem to be theorising and searching as frantically as the rest of us for clues, but who then don't seem to follow through - whose conclusions seem either unreasonable or sloppy. This is why I was giving LMP a hard time yesterday and this morning, his insistence on people following his plan in accordance with his own timezone seemed unreasonable and therefore wolvish.

Another thing wolves do is to work out a strategy at night to avoid any of their number being lynched. (Of course, there are exceptions to this, when one of their number is the object of general suspicion and the others need to distance themselves.) The best way for wolves to protect each other is by starting a bandwagon against an innocent they think is likely to be an acceptable suspect to the rest of the villagers. This is where people like Wayne come in very handy for wolves, which is why I was quite reluctant to vote for him yesterday. It is also why I feel very suspicious of wilwa's abrupt attack on me this morning - an early start of a bandwagon, I wondered - although I know she has time constraints which could explain her hastiness.

Now, someone is inevitably going to come along and say "oh look how much Lalaith knows about wolves, how suspicious". But that sort of comment would be silly and disingenuous - without wanting to break spawn's rules, we are all veterans here.

As for the points discussed so far today.
I like a lot of tar-a says, although it doesn't necessarily absolve her in my eyes. If Ang and LMP were both wolves, (lord help us!) this sort of bickering is very likely how they would play it.
It is strange and ironic that Glirdan, who was my chief suspect yesterday, votes for me today.

I don't want to make anymore mistakes, two is my max

Wilwa, my dear, getting me lynched will be definitely be your second mistake.

[littlemanpoet]

I've slept on things in a hole I dug
and almost drowned because it rained.
Those holes really are quite snug,
just need to figure how to get them drained.

There are some people who are playing too sloppy to be werewolves. Werewolves would take more care with what they say because they have more invested. The sloppy people betray their innocence, so to speak, by not caring what people think of what they say. On these grounds, I don't think Lalaith is a werewolf. The same reasoning seems to implicate Anguirel's innocence. This does happen to go for me too, but I'll leave that to othe judgement of the rest of you.

There are a few people who seem to be taking great care as to their choice of words. These are Wilwa & tar ancalime. One of these two will probably get my vote, but that's not a guarantee; just in case someone wants to later accuse me (should I survive the Day or Night) of not being consistent.

Whereas Eonwe & Kitanna cast the most suspicious votes yesterDay, as I reckon it, they don't seem particularly feral, especially not Kitanna.

I was tempted to suggest that we lynch Lalaith tonight on the strength of how many people suspect her, as well as on the fact that she was the swing vote. My rationale was that if she turned out to be a werewolf, it would be easy to spot whom she had been trying to protect, and that if she didn't turn out to be one, then we're no worse off than we might be lynching someone else, as long as she's not gifted. But I really doubt that she's a werewolf.

And Lalaith & Anguirel, I'm not writing this to allay your suspicions of me. Suspect away! I'm just putting forth my thinking, in hopes of helping us all to a good decision toDay.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, sure, I'm the seer, ol' buddy Ang.

Real Seer, don't come out and say I'm not the seer, because obviously I'm not. Do the wise thing. Thank you.

[Anguirel]

Then why, LMP, oh why, did you go on about sleeping arrangements and dreaming? Why did you stress that we'd regret lynching you?

No, I still think you're a desperate wolf; and I believe that either Wilwa or tar-ancalime-not both-growls alongside you.

However, confronting LMP's Seer mask was a reckless manouevre, and though as it happens I don't think he is the Seer, had he been it might have scuppered us. Aside from myself, Menel pointed out LMP's Seerish nuances. This implicates Menel and I strongly, and I am tempted to go for Menel, my initial Day One suspect-in the event of LMP's innocence, he could very well be a wolf.

I am suspicious of the growing movement against Wilwa-just too obvious-but I am also prepared to clear the other combatant Lalaith, partly because she is not acquiescing to LMP's imposition of his own innocence. If I'm wrong, she should also be examined. So I have two partially formed triumvirates:

If LMP is guilty

LMP, tar-ancalime?, wilwa?, Firefoot?

If he's innocent

Menel, Lalaith, Firefoot? and admittedly, for the rest of you, Anguirel?

The obvious solution? Use LMP as the touchstone. I give his intelligence enough credit to doubt that he's Gifted; he's either an extremely dangerous wolf or a villager whose death would give us a lot of information. It's a win-win situation for us.

I've thrown Firefoot in on both sides because I'm scared witless of her guile.

[Firefoot]

I can't say I really understand all this talk of LMP being the seer - it seems pretty obvious to me that he is not, or why would he be saying the things he is? A seer needs to be much more subtle than that. I would be shocked if LMP is the Seer.

That being said, I also do not think that LMP is a wolf - it seems like a stupid plan to deliberately draw attention to yourself by "faking" as the Seer. People almost unfailingly get lynched for threatening that "you'll be sorry if you lynch me." I would expect something a little more sophisticated from LMP - though I suppose it could be a bluff. I just don't think it is, though.

However, confronting LMP's Seer mask was a reckless manouevre, and though as it happens I don't think he is the Seer, had he been it might have scuppered us. Aside from myself, Menel pointed out LMP's Seerish nuances. This implicates Menel and I strongly, and I am tempted to go for Menel, my initial Day One suspect-in the event of LMP's innocence, he could very well be a wolf.

Yes. If you think someone is a seer, good grief, don't say that! Let's just point our most valuable asset out to the wolves, why don't we?

The prime lynching suspects at the moment seem to be Lalaith, Wilwa, LMP, and tar-ancalime. I don't want to vote for Lalaith; I don't feel very suspicious of her at all right now. I won't be voting for LMP, either - especially since I will very likely be voting in the next hour, or trying to cut it very close. I also am not terribly suspicious of Wilwa right now. That would leave tar. My vote will likely be going to her at this point - either that or Menel or Eonwe, but neither of them seem to be getting much support as far as lynching goes.

[tar-ancalime]

Though incidentally I'm inclined to thinktar-ancalime and wilwa to be your fanged backing.

That's where you're wrong, Anguirel dah-ling. If I were a wolf, I would be NO ONE's backup singer.

Gallows humor aside, I'm quite interested in your recent posts. First this:

Perhaps we should lynch wilwa to test you. She seems to have an interesting faith in your abilities.

Then this:

The obvious solution? Use LMP as the touchstone. I give his intelligence enough credit to doubt that he's Gifted; he's either an extremely dangerous wolf or a villager whose death would give us a lot of information. It's a win-win situation for us.

A callous disregard for the life of a (quite possibly) innocent villager, especially in regard to Wilwa, but then, someone in the village has got to have the stomach for it, eh?

I don't think that lynching one of your hypothetical hench-wolves would tell us anything about lmp, who does seem to be your main target toDAY. I say this not only because I'm one of them, but because really, where would it get us? Unless Wilwa really is a wolf, of course, and then we've got one in the bag...

I give lmp a lot of credit, and I don't see him going to pieces over ANY lynching, especially one that you overtly say is to "test" him. If he's the one you want, he's the one you should go after (as you seem to recognize in the second post that I quoted).

I have to say that my suspicion of you is fading as this DAY progresses. I'm now inclined to think that you're really trying to parse this out with the rest of us, and that (like me) your manner sometimes gets you in trouble.

(Sorry--this is a two-part post--the above is mostly directed to Anguirel, while the below is a gathering of thoughts before voting.)

I'm also less wary of Lalaith than I was earlier--I have to admit that I may have been swayed a little by Wilwa's early vehemence. Also, having now been on the receiving end of one of lmp's less-trusting posts myself, I can understand the impulse to argue with him a lot better than I could before.

As for lmp himself, I am puzzled. He seems to have two faces: one accusatory, argumentative, and unyielding (as in the discussion of time zones yesterDAY); and the other genuinely puzzled, bemused, willing to change his mind, and trying to save our poor village. Lalaith has been characterized as a Jekyll/Hyde villager, but I think the appellation is more apt for our undertaker.

Wilwa is growing more and more suspicious to me as the DAY progresses. Early vitriol against Lalaith followed by nothing at all (except repeated defenses of her vote, which I'm tempted to attribute to the repeated questionings of her vote). I have a few hours yet before I'll have to cast my vote, and I do hope to see some more from her before I do so.

I would also like to see more substance from Kath. Her posts have been few but incisive, just the kind of thing you might expect from a wary wolf.

Wayne, Menel, where are you? We need you!

So, my suspicions have changed somewhat since my (evidently itself suspicious) post of this morning. I now suspect:

(strongly)
lmp
wilwa

(very mildly, mostly due to lack of input, which may or may not be fair)
Kath
Wayne
Menel

Anguirel and Lalaith can consider themselves off the hook, at least for the moment.

Unless something changes either Wilwa (for extreme vitriol) or lmp (for unnecessary pot-stirring and possible smoke-and-mirror act) is likely to get my vote.

[tar-ancalime]

Firefoot:

Anything I can do to change your mind?

[Firefoot]

++Meneltarmacil

I'm just not convinced enough of tar-ancalime's guilt (it's just that one post that really seems suspicious to me), and what little Menel has said has me on edge.

[Meneltarmacil]

Honestly, I do not know whether or not LMP is innocent. If I was a wolf (which I certainly am not), I don't think I'd call for a lynching toDay if I really thought he was the Seer. I would have mentioned it to the other Wolves last Night and probably made plans to kill him in his sleep.

However, it does seem pretty obvious that he was trying to look like the Seer, especially in this post:

That having been said, I'll spend the Night dreaming up a new plan, if that helps to motivate discussion. We shall see what we shall see.

That hint was extremely obvious, and he said something very similar afterward. I actually thought he was the Seer at first, and figured that he'd made a mistake. I started suspecting him after I noticed he hadn't died last Night. Either we have some really stupid wolves running around, or LMP is a wolf. I seriously doubt that he is actually the Seer.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Then why, LMP, oh why, did you go on about sleeping arrangements and dreaming? Why did you stress that we'd regret lynching you?

I thought i'd try my hand at protecting the seer. Problem is I'm not exactly the subtle type . . . at least not this village. You will regret lynching me as much as you will regret the lynching of any ordinary innocent.

LMP, tar-ancalime?, wilwa?, Firefoot?

Sad to see your well-meant energies so misdirected as to include Firefoot and me with the other two.

If he's innocent

Menel, Lalaith, Firefoot? and admittedly, for the rest of you, Anguirel?

What's this with Firefoot? Are you suspecting her because she suspects you? I don't get it. How about some explanations? She has given nothing but credible assistance so far. Please explain yourself, Ang.

[Anguirel]

Firefoot is on the list purely because I want to defend against the possible as well as the probable. If she is a wolf, our task is far trickier, and it's as best to be prepared, don't you think?

Then there's the fact that she's not quite her usual analytical self, but I'm ready to accept that that's due to time...

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Celuien, I think you misunderstood me, I never thought Kuru was the Seer. I have my own theories on that, which I'm certainly not going to discuss openly when wolves are listening.

Fair enough. I'll let that pass, then. For what it's worth, on reconsideration, I find you far less suspicious. The Wayne/Glirdan/wilwarin combination suggested is interesting, one which I'll need to give more thought before voting today.

Current votes:
Lalaith (Glirdan)
Wilwa (Kitanna)
Menel (Firefoot)

To be continued in a while...

[Anguirel]

I'm going to replace tar-ancalime on my proposed LMP triumvirate with Kitanna. Re-reading her posts, I suddenly find the implicit belief she has in anything that stems from the undertaker's pen rather alarming. But as tar-ancalime suggested, we need to destroy the principle viper first, so my primary target will remain LMP with Menel as a contingency plan. I shall vote an hour or so before the deadline as I have to rush off and declaim some Virgil and Cicero...this fool does Classics...

[Lalaith]

Ok, I've had a think. The worst thing that can happen to the village is that we accidentally lynch the seer.
Now, being innocent myself I can't know for definite who is a wolf and who is innocent. But there is one person I know cannot be the seer, and that is wilwarin, because of her attack on me. I'm suspicious of her, but I can't be sure she's a wolf. However, I can promise you all that by lynching her we at least run no risk of lynching the seer.

So, by this logic:
++wilwarin

PS Actually, I've thought of one very convoluted scenario whereby wilwarin could be the seer. If she went after me, and I am then lynched and shown to be innocent, this would dispel any later doubt by wolves that she is the seer.
However, this is very byzantine, and not at all wilwa's style I think. So, I still feel almost 100% confident in making that promise...

[tar-ancalime]

Well, I've got to vote now (it's getting late here), so as promised:

++littlemanpoet

[Celuien]

Okay, let's see what the wayne/wilwa/glirdan combo gives us:

Wilwa: as the loudest one of the triumvirate, wilwa would be the leader of daytime arguments from the wolves' side to steer votes toward innocents. Also protects Glirdan-wolf by keeping him at arms length with mild jabs but at the same time agreeing with him. Note his early vote for Wilwa's prime suspect, Lalaith.
Glirdan: a less noisy version of Wilwa, stirring just enough controversy with her to keep them separated, but, again, voting with her. Could be a wolf tag along with an innocent wilwa, or a wolf pair strategy.
Wayne: the annoying enigma. Gets suspected by Glirdan today after Wilwa's suspicion of him yesterday. Please correct me if I've missed something, but I think Wilwa dropped all accusation of Wayne today (I should recheck posts to confirm). And so we have a circular turn-taking to keep distance between all three members of the wolf group in this theory. Notice also that everyone wants to give him the benefit of the doubt for his silence, making him a candidate to remain to the as the one surviving wolf - always suspected, but never enough to win a majority vote.

It all seems logical, but far too easy.

Back to the lmp conundrum...

While too noisy to be the Seer, I think he's also too noisy to be a smart wolf. And I'm pretty certain that if he were a wolf, lmp would be very smart about it. Far too smart to wind up the subject of such prominent debate on days 1 and 2, no matter how much our impetuous jester pushed him. I'm not sure what his strategy his, but at this point, I doubt it's a wolvish plan. And again, I'm willing to clear Anguirel for similar reasons. Too impulsive to be a wolf. What I think we're seeing is the interplay of two innocents absorbed in their own arguments with each other.

So who am I leaning toward for the upcoming vote, not in order of preference?
1) Possibly Glirdan to test the combination posited by Lalaith. He has behaved oddly throughout the past two days, and if he is guilty, it pretty much clears Lalaith. Wilwa then looks more suspicious, although the possibility of a Glirdan-wolf tagging along with an innocent Wilwa to both hide and cast doubt on her in the event of his being discovered is not eliminated. Plus, I thought that his lumping tar and me in with Wayne for silence was strange.
2) Menel - who already has one vote from Firefoot for what I agree are logical reasons and somewhat uncharacteristic silence today. And, since I think lmp is probably innocent, it's a chance to test Anguirel's other wolf pairing without voting for Lal, since I am currently against voting for her. Or, of course, to break a tie.
3) Wayne - again. Out of frustration and to see if the triplet is plausible.
4) Wilwa - theory testing as above or to break a tie.

And as a final disclaimer, all of this is subject to last minute modification and retraction.

[Anguirel]

Celuien's argument that LMP and I could be but brash innocents locking horns has some appeal, as history tends to repeat itself in the legends of Tol-in-Gaurhoth. For this reason I'm now more inclined to make a test of Menel than LMP-presumably such a triumvirate would involve Menel, tar-ancalime, not Firefoot, and one of the quieter ones.

I shall, however, continue to withhold my vote, though I confirm it will probably for Menel or LMP. For a jester, I'm awfully predictable.