Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[littlemanpoet]

I've slept on things in a hole I dug
and almost drowned because it rained.
Those holes really are quite snug,
just need to figure how to get them drained.

There are some people who are playing too sloppy to be werewolves. Werewolves would take more care with what they say because they have more invested. The sloppy people betray their innocence, so to speak, by not caring what people think of what they say. On these grounds, I don't think Lalaith is a werewolf. The same reasoning seems to implicate Anguirel's innocence. This does happen to go for me too, but I'll leave that to othe judgement of the rest of you.

There are a few people who seem to be taking great care as to their choice of words. These are Wilwa & tar ancalime. One of these two will probably get my vote, but that's not a guarantee; just in case someone wants to later accuse me (should I survive the Day or Night) of not being consistent.

Whereas Eonwe & Kitanna cast the most suspicious votes yesterDay, as I reckon it, they don't seem particularly feral, especially not Kitanna.

I was tempted to suggest that we lynch Lalaith tonight on the strength of how many people suspect her, as well as on the fact that she was the swing vote. My rationale was that if she turned out to be a werewolf, it would be easy to spot whom she had been trying to protect, and that if she didn't turn out to be one, then we're no worse off than we might be lynching someone else, as long as she's not gifted. But I really doubt that she's a werewolf.

And Lalaith & Anguirel, I'm not writing this to allay your suspicions of me. Suspect away! I'm just putting forth my thinking, in hopes of helping us all to a good decision toDay.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, sure, I'm the seer, ol' buddy Ang.

Real Seer, don't come out and say I'm not the seer, because obviously I'm not. Do the wise thing. Thank you.

[Anguirel]

Then why, LMP, oh why, did you go on about sleeping arrangements and dreaming? Why did you stress that we'd regret lynching you?

No, I still think you're a desperate wolf; and I believe that either Wilwa or tar-ancalime-not both-growls alongside you.

However, confronting LMP's Seer mask was a reckless manouevre, and though as it happens I don't think he is the Seer, had he been it might have scuppered us. Aside from myself, Menel pointed out LMP's Seerish nuances. This implicates Menel and I strongly, and I am tempted to go for Menel, my initial Day One suspect-in the event of LMP's innocence, he could very well be a wolf.

I am suspicious of the growing movement against Wilwa-just too obvious-but I am also prepared to clear the other combatant Lalaith, partly because she is not acquiescing to LMP's imposition of his own innocence. If I'm wrong, she should also be examined. So I have two partially formed triumvirates:

If LMP is guilty

LMP, tar-ancalime?, wilwa?, Firefoot?

If he's innocent

Menel, Lalaith, Firefoot? and admittedly, for the rest of you, Anguirel?

The obvious solution? Use LMP as the touchstone. I give his intelligence enough credit to doubt that he's Gifted; he's either an extremely dangerous wolf or a villager whose death would give us a lot of information. It's a win-win situation for us.

I've thrown Firefoot in on both sides because I'm scared witless of her guile.

[Firefoot]

I can't say I really understand all this talk of LMP being the seer - it seems pretty obvious to me that he is not, or why would he be saying the things he is? A seer needs to be much more subtle than that. I would be shocked if LMP is the Seer.

That being said, I also do not think that LMP is a wolf - it seems like a stupid plan to deliberately draw attention to yourself by "faking" as the Seer. People almost unfailingly get lynched for threatening that "you'll be sorry if you lynch me." I would expect something a little more sophisticated from LMP - though I suppose it could be a bluff. I just don't think it is, though.

However, confronting LMP's Seer mask was a reckless manouevre, and though as it happens I don't think he is the Seer, had he been it might have scuppered us. Aside from myself, Menel pointed out LMP's Seerish nuances. This implicates Menel and I strongly, and I am tempted to go for Menel, my initial Day One suspect-in the event of LMP's innocence, he could very well be a wolf.

Yes. If you think someone is a seer, good grief, don't say that! Let's just point our most valuable asset out to the wolves, why don't we?

The prime lynching suspects at the moment seem to be Lalaith, Wilwa, LMP, and tar-ancalime. I don't want to vote for Lalaith; I don't feel very suspicious of her at all right now. I won't be voting for LMP, either - especially since I will very likely be voting in the next hour, or trying to cut it very close. I also am not terribly suspicious of Wilwa right now. That would leave tar. My vote will likely be going to her at this point - either that or Menel or Eonwe, but neither of them seem to be getting much support as far as lynching goes.

[tar-ancalime]

Though incidentally I'm inclined to thinktar-ancalime and wilwa to be your fanged backing.

That's where you're wrong, Anguirel dah-ling. If I were a wolf, I would be NO ONE's backup singer.

Gallows humor aside, I'm quite interested in your recent posts. First this:

Perhaps we should lynch wilwa to test you. She seems to have an interesting faith in your abilities.

Then this:

The obvious solution? Use LMP as the touchstone. I give his intelligence enough credit to doubt that he's Gifted; he's either an extremely dangerous wolf or a villager whose death would give us a lot of information. It's a win-win situation for us.

A callous disregard for the life of a (quite possibly) innocent villager, especially in regard to Wilwa, but then, someone in the village has got to have the stomach for it, eh?

I don't think that lynching one of your hypothetical hench-wolves would tell us anything about lmp, who does seem to be your main target toDAY. I say this not only because I'm one of them, but because really, where would it get us? Unless Wilwa really is a wolf, of course, and then we've got one in the bag...

I give lmp a lot of credit, and I don't see him going to pieces over ANY lynching, especially one that you overtly say is to "test" him. If he's the one you want, he's the one you should go after (as you seem to recognize in the second post that I quoted).

I have to say that my suspicion of you is fading as this DAY progresses. I'm now inclined to think that you're really trying to parse this out with the rest of us, and that (like me) your manner sometimes gets you in trouble.

(Sorry--this is a two-part post--the above is mostly directed to Anguirel, while the below is a gathering of thoughts before voting.)

I'm also less wary of Lalaith than I was earlier--I have to admit that I may have been swayed a little by Wilwa's early vehemence. Also, having now been on the receiving end of one of lmp's less-trusting posts myself, I can understand the impulse to argue with him a lot better than I could before.

As for lmp himself, I am puzzled. He seems to have two faces: one accusatory, argumentative, and unyielding (as in the discussion of time zones yesterDAY); and the other genuinely puzzled, bemused, willing to change his mind, and trying to save our poor village. Lalaith has been characterized as a Jekyll/Hyde villager, but I think the appellation is more apt for our undertaker.

Wilwa is growing more and more suspicious to me as the DAY progresses. Early vitriol against Lalaith followed by nothing at all (except repeated defenses of her vote, which I'm tempted to attribute to the repeated questionings of her vote). I have a few hours yet before I'll have to cast my vote, and I do hope to see some more from her before I do so.

I would also like to see more substance from Kath. Her posts have been few but incisive, just the kind of thing you might expect from a wary wolf.

Wayne, Menel, where are you? We need you!

So, my suspicions have changed somewhat since my (evidently itself suspicious) post of this morning. I now suspect:

(strongly)
lmp
wilwa

(very mildly, mostly due to lack of input, which may or may not be fair)
Kath
Wayne
Menel

Anguirel and Lalaith can consider themselves off the hook, at least for the moment.

Unless something changes either Wilwa (for extreme vitriol) or lmp (for unnecessary pot-stirring and possible smoke-and-mirror act) is likely to get my vote.

[tar-ancalime]

Firefoot:

Anything I can do to change your mind?

[littlemanpoet]

Work the simplest theory that accounts for all the variables.

Easier said than done.

For the record:

1) I have not read any posts since my vote, so if anything looks weird as if I've ignored someone's post, or that I haven't noticed that I'm going to get lynched, I haven't read that far yet.

2) The purpose of this "for the record" is the proverbial "if I die" scenario, intended to help the innocent villagers as much as possible, and also "calling the werewolves out", as it were. That is, I really don't think they'll try to kill me toNight because I draw too much suspicion away from them. That is, unless I'm on target with my observations as to who the feral creatures are, then they may think it wise to 'off' me, even though their number one target is obviously the seer. So I'll probably survive the Night if I'm not lynched toDay.

3) The following people I consider innocent because of their worthy and/or honest appearing contributions (in alphabetical order):
Anguirel
Celuien
Firefoot
Lalaith
Granted, not much of a list; but if we can consider these four to be provisional "known innocents", as it were, and if we're lucky enough to be right about them, we've got a big "one up" on the werewolves. Just an observation.

4) I'm leaning innocent with:
tar ancalime - her contributions seem to be on the up and up, although a werewolvish reading can be made of them; same is probably true of most of us, however.

5) The following people are 50/50 with me, having contributed but being questionable:
Glirdan
Kath
Kitanna
I'm not sure on these three. They may be innocent, they may not be.

6) The following people seem suspicious to me:
Eonwe - too quiet and his posts haven't really been full of meat.
Meneltarmacil - again, too quiet.
Wayne - way too quiet; however, as strongly as I can, I abjure, recommend, etc., that he not be the one we try to lynch first. If he is one of the werewolves, we should wait to lynch him until there are only 7 total villagers left & no werewolves have been killed; because he may be gifted, and we don't want to run the risk of killing off one of our primary assets; if he hasn't proven useful by the time I've suggested above, then lynch him.
Wilwa - I'm afraid that we're wrong about her, but I've already voted. If she's innocent, I strorngly suggest that we need to take a good hard look at the three remaining suspicious on my list.

There. That's all.

Edit: Having cross-posted with a boatload of folks, I am having second thoughts about Eonwe, who seems honest to me; so that means that I'm also having second thoughts about those 50/50 people .... at least one of them would have to be a werewolf, if not Eonwe or Wilwarin.

[Firefoot]

++Meneltarmacil

I'm just not convinced enough of tar-ancalime's guilt (it's just that one post that really seems suspicious to me), and what little Menel has said has me on edge.

[Firefoot]

tar - I hadn't seen your comment before posting my vote (top of the page, you know). I really just don't know what to think of you - but that judgment (on my part) will have to wait until the next Day.

[Meneltarmacil]

Honestly, I do not know whether or not LMP is innocent. If I was a wolf (which I certainly am not), I don't think I'd call for a lynching toDay if I really thought he was the Seer. I would have mentioned it to the other Wolves last Night and probably made plans to kill him in his sleep.

However, it does seem pretty obvious that he was trying to look like the Seer, especially in this post:

That having been said, I'll spend the Night dreaming up a new plan, if that helps to motivate discussion. We shall see what we shall see.

That hint was extremely obvious, and he said something very similar afterward. I actually thought he was the Seer at first, and figured that he'd made a mistake. I started suspecting him after I noticed he hadn't died last Night. Either we have some really stupid wolves running around, or LMP is a wolf. I seriously doubt that he is actually the Seer.

[Meneltarmacil]

Please forgive the double-post.

As for why I'd have Glirdan, I noticed, along with everyone else, that he'd been acting rather odd and that he defended himself rather, uh, viciously as well.

However, today, I'll vote for

++littlemanpoet

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Then why, LMP, oh why, did you go on about sleeping arrangements and dreaming? Why did you stress that we'd regret lynching you?

I thought i'd try my hand at protecting the seer. Problem is I'm not exactly the subtle type . . . at least not this village. You will regret lynching me as much as you will regret the lynching of any ordinary innocent.

LMP, tar-ancalime?, wilwa?, Firefoot?

Sad to see your well-meant energies so misdirected as to include Firefoot and me with the other two.

If he's innocent

Menel, Lalaith, Firefoot? and admittedly, for the rest of you, Anguirel?

What's this with Firefoot? Are you suspecting her because she suspects you? I don't get it. How about some explanations? She has given nothing but credible assistance so far. Please explain yourself, Ang.

[Anguirel]

Firefoot is on the list purely because I want to defend against the possible as well as the probable. If she is a wolf, our task is far trickier, and it's as best to be prepared, don't you think?

Then there's the fact that she's not quite her usual analytical self, but I'm ready to accept that that's due to time...