Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[Firefoot]

All right, I can see the merit in that. The only issue would be if Glirdan were the Ranger; that could be fatal for the villagers (well, maybe not quite, but you get the gist). If he's the Seer... I don't think he is. If Wilwa is not, I think I might know who is, and it's not Glirdan. If he's the hunter, more power to him... he should probably take out Eonwe or tar.

As a just in case, though, one (or two) of the people on that list should be around at the end of voting in case Glirdan does show up saying he's gifted. If nothing else, it will corner the wolves into their kill for the next Night or two (depending on Wilwa's giftedness). It shouldn't be me; I can't guarantee my presence at the end of voting.

[Lalaith]

Hmm...I'm not sure.
If Wilwa is lying and Wayne is innocent, and then Glirdan is innocent too, we really are shafted. I'm inclined just to lynch Wayne.
Wilwa, you're welcome to dream of me tonight if you like, it would be a bit boring (for me) as I'd much rather know the identity of LMP or Anguirel, but if I'm seen as the most interesting one then I suppose I should be flattered....

One thing I would say however is that when and if Wilwa reveals to us who she has dreamt of, she should NOT say who, if any, of her dream subjects are gifted, just that they are innocent.

I think I'm going mad with paranoia...I suddenly thought, what if Wilwa, LMP and Firefoot were wolves? Firefoot attacks wilwa's revelation, then is calmed by wilwa's assurance that she (Firefoot) is an ordinary villager. Then LMP comes out with his plan for a second lynching (of an innocent). Firefoot agrees...

Now, I'm not saying this is what I really think. But it could be true, and so could a lot of other crazy things. So I think we should play it safe and just lynch Wayne today.

[Lalaith]

I hope Ang's computer isn't still down. I'd really like to hear from him quite soon.

[tar-ancalime]

I think I'm going mad with paranoia...I suddenly thought, what if Wilwa, LMP and Firefoot were wolves? Firefoot attacks wilwa's revelation, then is calmed by wilwa's assurance that she (Firefoot) is an ordinary villager. Then LMP comes out with his plan for a second lynching (of an innocent). Firefoot agrees...

Now, I'm not saying this is what I really think. But it could be true, and so could a lot of other crazy things. So I think we should play it safe and just lynch Wayne today.

That's why we have to take Wilwa at her word. Worst-case scenario? We lynch one innocent (in which case, sorry Wayne). The truth is then out. But if we start to get embroiled in more convoluted schemes, we could end up with a real bloodbath on our hands!

As an illustration of what COULD happen: suppose you're right. Wilwa, Firefoot, and lmp are the wolves but they talk us into their plan for one day. We double lynch Wayne and Glirdan. Glirdan really is the Hunter (as Firefoot hypothesized). Despite being one of the victims of the plot, Glirdan too is taken in by Firefoot and chooses me or Eonwe to take down with him. That's three innocents taken down in one DAY, one more kill that NIGHT, and three very happy wolves come morning. I say play it safe, lynch Wayne, and minimize our losses JUST IN CASE.

[tar-ancalime]

I hope Ang's computer isn't still down. I'd really like to hear from him quite soon.

Thanks for posting this. I'd been wondering where he was.

[Lalaith]

It's what he said in his Sil Survivor thread. We can only presume to believe him.

As for your other points, tar-a, I'm glad I'm not the only wuss here. It's nto that I'm not suspicious of Glirdan - I am, he still seems to flip and flop too much - but it just the whole double-lynching plan seems too risky.

Actually, having reviewed yesterday's voting, it's quite unlikely that lmp and wilwa are both wolves, given that lmp gave her a third vote at a time when there was no Menel bandwagon to speak of. But anything is possible I suppose.

[Anguirel]

Yes, I'm afraid the goose-girl is right. I've gone quite insane and have occasional bouts of lucidity only. Occupational hazard of being a fool. I'll be stark raving mad for a lot of the time over the next fortnight...

(Lalaith is right, I just prefer to avoid anachronism...and blimming annoying it is too. Accursed technology.)

I'll be back later, but for the moment, I say we go along with wilwa's plan, and that the Ranger should guard her tonight. There's more at risk defying Wilwa than there is supporting her. In the meantime, we should try and identify other possible members of the triumvirate, and choose a target for her to dream about-I suggest Eonwe myself. May Orome guide us!

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I think I'm going mad with paranoia...I suddenly thought, what if Wilwa, LMP and Firefoot were wolves? Firefoot attacks wilwa's revelation, then is calmed by wilwa's assurance that she (Firefoot) is an ordinary villager. Then LMP comes out with his plan for a second lynching (of an innocent). Firefoot agrees...

Hee hee! I had the same paranoid thought going, minus the part you outline for me. Which is why I stick to my Occam's Razor guideline: go with the simplest explanation that accounts for all the variables. My hypothesis is that.

I'm not convinced that a double-lynching of Wayne and Glirdan is the best idea. It might be wise to promise ourselves that Glirdan is the wolf to be lynched toMorrow unless something makes it clear that he's not a werewolf. We have the time and the numbers to take a chance at one more Day.

Firefoot, I appreciate your provisional confidence in my plan, but I'm quite willing to leave Glirdan alive one more Night, as two werewolves (at this somewhat early stage in the game) is not really any worse than one, since they can't split their kills.

[littlemanpoet]

Way too many corpses and grave digging toDay, so I must vote. And I'll settle the double lynching thing here and now because having suggested it, I don't think it's the wisest course of action.

++ WaynetheGoblin

If you really want another known innocent, go ahead and dream of me.

We know that Firefoot and Anguirel are innocent, based on Wilwa being a seer (if she is). That's three known innocents, which gets proven tonight. Either Firefoot or Anguirel die tonight, it's pretty obvious (not saying this as a threat but sheer deductive reasoning - just to make that clear).

So the Ranger needs to guard Wilwa. I suggest that the Hunter pick either Glirdan or Eonwe, and that Wilwa dream of one of these two. I'm pretty convinced of tar-ancalime's innocence. If this is all proven wrong, it's back to the drawing board and we are in really, really big trouble.

[Eonwe]

i must be leaving for school, and most likely won't have a chance to get back on before 4pm (my time). so i must vote now. becuas thtere is no point in voting for glirdan anymore, i will go for wayne as well.

++wayne

[Anguirel]

Well, unless we've all been bamboozled up the lum and back, this looks like a pretty bad evening for the wolves. And I say wilwa should dream of Eonwe, on whom we have far less information.

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN (again, gratifying to know I was apparently right first time)

[wilwarin538]

Alright, it seems many people want me to dream of Eonwe. That's probably what I'll do.

But I will tell you why I considered these two.

Kitanna pretty much beleived me right off the bat, not many others did. Why did she have such convidence in me, when I had so much suspicion? If she is guilty she was probably trying to get on my good side so I wouldn't dream of her toNight. If she is innocent, then she was just trusting me, for what ever reason.

Eonwe said something about him seeing a post from Wayne where Wayne named Kitanna as the other wolf. No such post excists. Was he perhaps trying to set Kitanna up, so he would seem innocent?

Obvioulsy this reasoning can't work for both of them being guilty, since it would have to require Were-Eonwe to expose Were-Kitanna. Which isn't likely.

But I'm pretty sure atleast one of them is guilty. I will dream of Eonwe toNight. If he is guilty we know who to lynch tomorrow, but that won't necassarily clear Kitanna, if he is innocent I suggest we go for Kitanna.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Well, unless we've all been bamboozled up the lum and back, this looks like a pretty bad evening for the wolves. And I say wilwa should dream of Eonwe, on whom we have far less information.

As you know I've been pushing for our seer dreaming of Glirdan, but I think Anguirel has a point here. Glirdan's behavior has been a lot more obviously werewolvish than Eonwe's.

Just to review, Glirdan has, all day toDay, been trying to get us off track of what we all seem to have been pretty sure about, saying there's a werewolf hiding in such and such votes ... and saying that we should spread our votes around when, as tar ancalime makes very plain in her astute posting, we need to make sure of enough votes for Wayne. Finally, his flip-flopping has been mentioned. All werewolvish. So he seems rather obvious. Eonwe seems suspicious to a number of us, but his behavior has been far less obvious. In fact, until I go back and have a really good look, I'd have to say that the primary problem I can recollect with Eonwe was his vote placement on Day one, which I can't ever remember what it was now, just that my analysis produced that result. sorry that I can't be clearer in my hurry.

The upshot is that since a number of us feel rather sure of Glirdan, our seer ought to dream of Eonwe. I hope all that makes sense.

I'll shut up now.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Wilwa. I need your case to be stronger against Kitanna. Glirdan seems much more likely to me, three days running.