Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[mormegil]

It is nice to see some analyses coming in, though it seems like we won’t get them all. I will do my analysis of Aiwnedil, who has posted the most so far.

DAY 1

Post 5—Is a trifle bit incensed at the horrible pronunciation and spelling of words and vows to help our village out.

Post 15—Explains why he is visibly non-committal. Also gives his advice to the seer, you all remember it.

Post 17—Clarifies my assertion that his statement in post 15 seemed contradictory. This statement makes sense and seems reasonable.

Important to note that Spawn votes for him on the first day. Could speak to his innocence.

Post 35—Outlines all reactions to his seer approach and defends it. As I have stated I actually found his early statements very reasonable and non-wolfish but I pointed out the ‘contradiction’ to stir up talk, and it worked rather well. He now voices suspicion for Spawn for her reaction and her vote for him. Also, he is now suspicious of Gurthang because of his early vote for Formendacil

Post 37—cross posted and added Rune to his list of reactions but thinks Rune is innocent.

Post 50—Emphasizes that he is a man. Says that he’s suspicious of any that think his plan was a wolfish trick.

Post 63—He voices concern over the number of voted that Formendacil has received, especially in light of the fact that Formendacil has only posted once up to this point. He reiterates that he will most likely vote for Spawn, though he doesn’t want to cause a double lynching.

Post 66—Cues in on Boromir’s willingness to vote Spawn and cross posts his vote with Boromir’s vote for Spawn. This vote put Spawn in the lead and causes her to get lynched.

Overall DAY 1—He seems fairly consistent and made it so a wolf was lynched. As of this point I don’t find him suspicious unless there was a plot to sacrifice a wolf on this day, although Spawn did go after him. Does this speak to his credit or not?


DAY 2

Post 79—First he laments the loss of our seer and wishes his advise had been heeded. He is suspicious of all three that voted for Formendacil. Wilwarin, Gurthang and Jack, all three of whom are innocent.

Post 88—He begins to have some suspicion of Saucie and thinks that it’s possible that Jack dreamt of him but isn’t ready to add him to the “likely innocent” list.

Post 110—Thinks that everybody is too quick to give Wilwarin innocent status because of her tie breaking vote for the unknown Formendacil rather then the wolf Spawn. Also is becoming suspicious of Rune but missed him up until this point because of his focus on the Anti-Formendacil campaign. However despite his suspicions he is willing to lynch Wayne.

Post 121—Does not like Fordim’s quantitative analysis method and reiterates that he will vote for Wilwa or Rune, but more than likely it will be Rune because nobody is voting for Wilwa.

Post 143—Gives Rune his 3rd vote and says he considers Gurthang to be innocent and that we should look at Wilwa the next day.

Post 147 and 150—cross posted and rues that fact that his vote caused a tie though ends up thinking that my idea to double lynch that day is probably a good idea.

Overall DAY 2--The thing I find most interesting is that on DAY 1 and 2 he has been very consistent in all but one thing. He never gave any explanation as to why he suspected and voted Rune. I think he saw the tide turning towards Rune and either hoped on that as an innocent or with malicious intent. I’m not yet sure but it raised my eyebrow when I saw it.


DAY 3

Post 157—Essentially, he says that everything he has done, with the exception of his Spawn vote, has gone horribly wrong and says he will rethink everything.

Post 159—Here he introduces a his new thought which sounds more like something they would be taught in Harry Potters Defense Against the Dark Arts class it is called: Mathematical Methods of Wolf Detection (oh I could just see Hermione loving this class .) Anyway he comes up with his numerical method and gives everybody a score. The problem with this is that it seems too subjective. He realizes that there are probably errors in it and possibly missed variables but overall most people don’t respond to it.

Post 160—Defends the double lynch and admits that he was wrong in his suspicions.

Post 182—Is a long post analyzing me. He basically takes my actions and evaluates them as if I were an innocent, wolf or cobbler and comes to the conclusion that I’m reasonable if I’m innocent but also if I’m a wolf. Basically says it’s a point of view or perspective issue. Voices concern over Kath and Lhuna and their “safe votes” but notes that Lhuna’s most recent vote for me is not so safe.

Post 188—He is grateful to have Spm’s confidence but he doesn’t think he will survive the night. Restates that he is suspicious of both Kath and Lhuna though he is considering going for me. Gets confused over a statement of mine.

Post 190—After Boromir, in post 189, clarified for me (thank you Boro) what I meant and how I knew Spawn would be having some difficulties, he is grateful and dismisses that doubt of me.

Post 196—He now has been voted for (I think twice) and is willing to form a voting block because “In any case, since I know I'm innocent (and since I don't want to kill an innocent), and since there's a chance anyone else could be a wolf”. So essentially he’s saying I’m innocent but somebody else could be a wolf...let’s kill them instead! A bit odd and suspicious. Another thing in this post he has expressed doubt about Kath and Lhuna and I’ve been a ‘chance’ now Kath and I are his main suspects with no mention of Lhuna??? I’m not sure why, he could have merely changed his mind and not told anybody but he could be intentionally casting suspicion on Lhuna but taking it away before it’s too much. Anyway, does this make him wolf? Not sure but likely not, it’s more likely that he changed his mind and didn’t vocalize it.

Post 199—Objects to Formendacil’s vote for Boromir and states that he doesn’t see the point in voting for somebody who is not likely to be lynched. I found this odd and posted about it. I think, more than likely, it’s a difference of opinion and not suspicious.

Post 202—Begins to see eye to eye with me to a degree on my complaint of his last point. Thinks Boromir is acting a bit strange and will do whatever it takes to save himself i.e. voting for Wayne.

Post 204—Asserts his notion that SpM is innocent and tries to form and alliance with him. Seems likely to be an innocent move but then again we have been giving him the “you’re innocent” card since DAY 2 so it might not be a bad strategy for a wolf to pull.

Post 206—Doesn’t want to go for Boromir because of Boro’s vote on DAY 1 for Spawn and would rather go for me because of his idea that I’ve “made no innocent moves”.

Post 211—Is confused about whom to vote for. Wants to know why Saucepan Man thinks I am innocent and he is reticent to vote for Boromir. Thinks killing Wayne might be good because he thinks him to be the cobbler. Now I want to know what happened to Kath and Lhuna. I realize that you want to save yourself but at times innocents should sacrifice themselves for a cause they truly believe in.

Post 212—Votes Wayne

Overall DAY 3—He was really consistent on DAY 1 and 2 but lost some of it here which makes me think and wonder a bit.


DAY 4

Post 216—Is a good post and I think speaks somewhat to his innocence. He reiterates that he is suspicious of Kath, Lhuna and Mormegil. (I’m glad to see it back to all three) He implies why he began to drop Kath and Lhuna the DAY before, which is essentially there was too much focus on others and that we (fellow innocents) need to come together today and get it right.

Post 225—Proposes a hybrid plan based on my idea of the Hunter and possibly the Ranger coming forward. His plan is that we all list who we are going to vote for and then if it seems either are in trouble they can come forward.

Post 230—Uses numerical method and essentially clears Formendacil of all suspicion and says I still am highly suspicious but I could be innocent. Voices continued concern over Kath and Lhuna and thinks they may be a good idea for today.

Post 233—Reiterates that we should not be rash in our voting toDAY. It seems as though he wants control and to keep us organized. A very helpful thing to do if innocent and dangerous but fruitful if a wolf.

Post 235—He is rather defensive about himself and doesn’t think Fordim is a wolf although admits that Boromir could be correct in thinking him to be a cobbler, to which idea I myself subscribe now.

Post 240—Analysis of Boromir which doesn’t seem to come to a conclusion.


My conclusion

Overall I think Aiwendil is innocent and I will give him the benefit of my small doubts. I will continue to watch for any and all suspicious behavior however. He has been very consistent, which can be difficult for wolves to do. The major nagging doubt is he early thinks that Rune is innocent but then out of the blue suspects him and votes for him. Also if Boromir is a wolf then it might be safe to think that Aiwnedil is either taken in by Boromir or a wolf himself.

One last request of you Aiwendil, can you make a better case against Kath and Lhuna other than their "safe votes"? I ask because I am suspicious of them but want to hear more reasons from you.

I hope you enjoyed this because it took me a really long time.

[Aiwendil]

Good analysis, on the whole, Mormegil, and my apologies for being so verbose! I've had far too much free time this past week.

Allow me to explain my vote for Rune. On DAY 2, I was fixated (mistakenly, it seems) on the idea that the Wolves would have attempted to save Spawn on DAY 1. That led me initially to look at Wilwarin, because I was focusing on the strange number of votes for Formendacil. Then Boromir pointed out (in post 84) that Rune had tied things up at 2-2-2 among Spawn, Formendacil, and Wayne. This looked to me like another possible attempt to save Spawn. So both Wilwarin and Rune made what seemed to me to be suspect votes. With no apparent prospect for Wilwarin's lynching, I voted for Rune.

One last request of you Aiwendil, can you make a better case against Kath and Lhuna other than their "safe votes"? I ask because I am suspicious of them but want to hear more reasons from you.

My suspicion is tenuous, I admit. The chief factor is that they have so far played a very "quiet" game, and not only in terms of the number of posts they've made. They have both avoided anything that would bring much attention to them. They have not made any bold accusations or come forward with notable plans or suggestions. They have not gotten caught up in any major controversy. And they have voted safely. It seems to me that on the whole it is beneficial to a Wolf not to be noticed. The quieter a person is, the less evidence everyone else has to go on in analyzing that person. I'm not saying, of course, that a Wolf can't be loud - but it seems to me that Kath and Lhunardawen have gotten off fairly easily so far due primarily to their being quiet.

What worries me is that I can think of another kind of person who wouldn't want to draw attention to himself or herself - a Gifted. It's possible that what we have in Kath or in Lhuna or in both is a desire to hide not from the villagers but from the Wolves. That's largely why I've repeatedly urged caution today. If we lynch a Gifted, we're really in trouble.

[mormegil]

I agree that we dont' want to lynch a gifted and I am in favor, somewhat, of lynching Lhuna. However the problem remains that she hasn't voiced anything today and knowing her time zones a bit I don't think she will. So if she is gifted she won't be able to tell us but honestly I doubt that she is but then again I have been wrong before .

[Formendacil]

The final hour of the day draws nigh, and our voted-for frontrunners are Lhuna and Aiwendil.

As regards our front-runner, Aiwendil, I am inclined to think that he innocent. He COULD be a Werewolf, and even if he's innocent, his death could have some interesting implications...

However, this village is rather small as of know, and if Aiwendil isn't guilty, and since I'm not guilty, then that leaves six people, of whom two are guilty- assuming that Aiwendil is not, which I am going to take for a given, for the purposes of this voting choice, since I don't think him guilty enough to lynch.

As noted, I have a one in three chance. Not stellar... but better than we started with...

Our only other candidate thus far voted for, Lhuna, is overall a better candidate than Aiwendil, if only on the basis of her quiet habits this game. While it's true that she's in another timezone- and thus only really gets in on the conversation before it really boils over- it is possible that she is simply a werewolf playing a quiet game. I could be wrong, but I'm going to trust that timezone excuse for at least another day.

Boromir88 has, thus far, seemed innocent and helpful, but I don't entirely trust him, and its tempting to vote him off just on the basis of his "dun"s and the like. I mean, who wants to have to translate as well as think when reading a post?

I'm being facetious, however. This is no longer DAY1, and the time for randomly voting based on silly excuses is over.

Fordhim, if the cobbler- which I am starting to think more likely, based on the persuasive arguments in that direction- is, in my opinion, freer therefore from lynching, since being the Cobbler means that he is NOT a Werewolf. So, if I scratch him off of my "probables" list, then I'm down to a 2/5 chance of voting Werewolf.

Morm has played a VERY typically Morm game: holding votes till the end, trying to use his rhetoric to direct everyone else's votes, and organising a roundtable analysis. It so similar to his, innocent, performance, that I'm really thinking that he's innocent. However, if he is a Werewolf, wouldn't this be the most natural thing to do? And, if so, it's really working...

Holbytlass was my candidate to analyse, and I'm less assured-feeling of her innocence than I am of Morm, but she's hardly on my "guilty" list. If I vote for her, it'll probably be because everyone else looks so clean, rather than that she looks dirty.

And so I come to Kath, the last on the list, and easy to overlook because of her silence. As with Aiwendil, I'm rather suspicious of this quietude, and I wouldn't be surprised to find a wolf hiding in that quiet corner. On the other hand, as with Lhuna, I'm hesitant to vote for her based simply on that.

So, to decide...

Of my seven possible votes, I've decided to cross Aiwendil off. Fordhim, assuming (wrongly or rightly) that he's the Cobbler, is also exempt. I've allowed myself to let Lhuna go.

That leaves:

Boromir
Holbytlass
Kath
Morm

Of the three, I'm thinking that Morm is the most innocent. So off the list he goes... I have no real concerns about Holbytlass, so off she goes.

Boromir and Kath...

As hesitant as I am to vote for a quiet person...

Kath looks the most suspicious to me today. I guess I she gets the short straw...

Kath

[Formendacil]

Oops...

forgot those plus signs...

++ Kath

[mormegil]

Kath or Lhuna? I'm slightly inclined to vote either but unsure I hope to return in 30 mins to vote.

[Kath]

I'm not sure I should really appeal to save myself since I'm not totally sure of Lhuna's guilt, but if I don't then you will for certain be lynching an innocent rather than only possibly doing so. On the other hand I don't want to cause a double lynching because if I vote for Lhuna and then the two of you vote for me it's possible that two innocents will die and that's even worse.

So speak to me morm, Aiwendil - what do I do here? Bearing in mind I have but eight minutes to decide.

[Aiwendil]

Now Formendacil has done just what I advised against - voted without: 1. putting the name forward first in case she's Gifted and 2. making sure there are at least two other people willing to vote for Kath.

Now, as it happens, I am willing to vote for Kath. So I guess that leaves Mormegil and me to decide 'twixt Kath and Lhuna.

Morm - thoughts?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Now Formendacil has done just what I advised against - voted without: 1. putting the name forward first in case she's Gifted and 2. making sure there are at least two other people willing to vote for Kath.

Now, as it happens, I am willing to vote for Kath. So I guess that leaves Mormegil and me to decide 'twixt Kath and Lhuna.

Morm - thoughts?

So far you are leading the voting, Master Aiwendil, and with less than an hour left, I am rather doubtful that we shall see either of them, particularly our dearly Filipina Lhuna make an appearance ere the end of the day.

And, if they do, they neither will be lynched by me. Only if others arrive and vote for them as well.

[Aiwendil]

You're right; my apologies. I guess that with two votes against me, I get a little jittery.