Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Kuruharan]

I am the Seer.

I thought so. And if you don’t believe me, please go back and reread how I always tried to defend you but not be too obvious about it. And you being the Seer was one thing I thought Nilp’s death definitively proved…since you asked so politely. (Some confusion had crept into my mind and I wasn’t sure on DAY THREE and felt I needed confirmation.) The reason why I wanted you to come forward was because I didn't want your information to be lost if the wolves reached the same conclusion about you that I had.

I wonder that he is yet alive considering that someone of his caliber should have been killed early on by the wolves.

I’ve wondered this myself, but the continual clouds of irrational (and ill-founded) suspicion that permanently hang over my head is reason enough, don’t you think? Why kill somebody that might lead back to you if the villagers might do it for you?

There's Garin's lynching

Truly, my work in this department brought on utter catastrophe for the village. (I would spread the credit around to other people who deserve it, but that might do them more harm than good at the moment since, to hear some people talk, lynching Garin was the greatest mistake the village has made thus far. )

then later on Nilp's lynching.

I was hardly the only one. Some of our proved innocents were rather forward in that. However, if being suspicious of Nilp is enough to get one hanged, why is it enough to suspect me and not enough for the other six people who voted for him?

Now I'm sure this will elicit another tirade from our dear Dwarf, but that's another thing that scares me; he's being overly defensive.

If you will take a look back up at post 315 (as a matter of fact, the one above yours) you will see our now proved innocent Gurthang behaving in a manner that could be described as defensive. I’m left wondering why people can’t take the lesson learned from this example and apply it elsewhere. However, defensiveness is not just about self-preservation. It is also about keeping others from making mistakes and not wasting this brilliant start (that somebody helped in obtaining for you).

Final comment in my own defense that I’m ever going to make (since I’m tired of wasting time on this), I would ask everyone here to remember who here has voted for known wolves the most, me. If you think this is an elaborate plot on my part to get rid of fellow wolves so I can win on my own, then I can only laugh at you. (And will unceasingly if you hang me.)

Now, on to actual stuff that might help us.

Ummm…Amanaduial, need I remind you that you are one of the people who actually voted for Lhunardawen. Indeed, your behavior throughout has been rather puzzling. You have gone on lengthy expositions that have usually not amounted to a whole lot of substantial information, seemed to go out of your way to inject confusion into the mix, and generally carried on crazy.

I continue to wonder about malkatoj. Unfortunately, there is not much substance to go on there.

However, I will defer to our proven innocents to suggest real plans of action since they don’t have to worry about their suggestions being taken the wrong way and are free to say what they please, but I hope they don’t overlook Amanaduial.

Oh, and another thing, I’m pretty confident Rune is innocent as well. He voted for Garin pretty early on DAY TWO. I’m sticking him in the innocent column on my list anyway.

[Meneltarmacil]

Okay, we now have four known innocents.

However, Lhuna and Gurthang were my primary suspects, so it's *heh heh* back to square one for me.

If we want more known innocents, (though this would run the risk of losing another Gifted) I suggest that at some point in the future the Ranger could declare him/herself nd give the name of the person he/she successfully protected. That would add two more known innocents, bringing the total up to six.

I don't know who to vote for, honestly. Maybe TGWBS, but I'm really not sure.

[Alcarillo]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Alcarillo is innocent, as well as Gurthang. Also Valier, but that is not much help now for she had already been killed. A dead one guesses that Cailin too is innocent, but obviously we can't trust that completely. The information is not much, but I can't risk losing all these in one fell swoop, bringing you all back to square one.

Ah, thank you. Now I don't have to fight any accusations anymore. It's all smooth-sailing from here.

As for suspects, well, I don't have any. TGWBS, I guess.

[Gurthang]

Thoughts on everyone:


Meneltarmacil - Seems to be having way to much fun *hehe*ing to seriously be a wolf. I'm actually willing to say he's innocent.
Cailin - Either the Ranger, Hunter, or a wolf. I'd bank on Hunter.
Azaelia - Unsure. Hasn't said a whole lot. Voted third for Garin, which speaks in his favor.
Farael - Voted first for Garin on his deathday. Could be a wolf, but that's a stretch.
TGWBS - Quiet and therefore suspicious. He actually did some analysis, so I'm will to push him down the list a little.
Rune – His voting makes me think him innocent.
Alcarillo - Proven innocent.
Lhunardawen - Seer
Gurthang - Proven innocent
Amanaduial - Quite a bit she's said has made me jump. Evidence seems to be building up against her in my mind.
Naria - Either the Hunter or a wolf. I'm thinking wolf.
Kuruharan - He's been climbing in suspicion. He's a very smooth talker, though, so very dangerous if a wolf.
Malkatoj – Bad feeling that I can't shake. I really wish she'd speak more. She hasn't even been here yet toDay.

Suspect:
Naria
Kuru
malkatoj
TGWBS
Amanduial

More likely innocent:
Menel
Azaelia
Farael
Rune

innocent:
Lhuna
Alcarillo
Gurthang
Cailin

In any case, Gurthang, I hope you're not gifted, because you will almost certainly die tonight. You're the loudest certain innocent.

That is, unless the Ranger protects me, but then that means the wolves won't pick me, which means....

Yes, Ranger, you've got your work cut out for you. Oh, I'm not gifted, so don't worry about that. Just a plain old innocent, five straight now. *sigh*

[Naria]

Looks like I have a few people who don't believe me! I am the HUNTER!! and by saying that I will more than likely be dead tonight, but I would rather go by the fangs of a wolf than by the knives of the villagers. I hope the Ranger protects me so I can go on for at least one more day, but if I die sobeit. Cailin is NOT the HUNTER. Because of this and my inevitable lynching; what she has said in her original postings about "being a hunter". I am going too vote for her today. She isn't a Seer, she isn't a Hunter(ME), and I have a different idea about who the Ranger is.

++Cailin

[the guy who be short]

Naria, I'm afraid I don't believe you - my reasons are outlined above.

However, in case you are the Hunter, it is a simple matter of killing Cailin. You must understand that your death is a win-win situation for the village.

In scenario one, you are a Werewolf. You die, we cheer.

In scenario two, you are the Hunter. This means Cailin is obviously a werewolf. You kill her as you die, and we catch a werewolf anyway.

Either way, I believe we have a wolf in the bag today.

++Naria

[Naria]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

In scenario two, you are the Hunter. This means Cailin is obviously a werewolf. You kill her as you die, and we catch a werewolf anyway.

How does this make her "obviously" a werewolf? I don't really know, just like the rest of you, who the werewolves are. I wouldn't be so sure of the win-win for the villagers. You don't know who I have picked to come down with me. It could be you or it could be someone else. I understand my role as a Hunter thank you and believe I will make the right decision when it comes too who will die with me.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Naria, I'm afraid I don't believe you - my reasons are outlined above.

However, in case you are the Hunter, it is a simple matter of killing Cailin. You must understand that your death is a win-win situation for the village.

In scenario one, you are a Werewolf. You die, we cheer.

In scenario two, you are the Hunter. This means Cailin is obviously a werewolf. You kill her as you die, and we catch a werewolf anyway.

Either way, I believe we have a wolf in the bag today.

++Naria

Not as simple as Mr. TWBS puts it because
a) As it happened, Cailin could have meant something else... for the time being I will believe that her comment on shiny things was regarding her being a noble cleptomaniac... after all, the first days is when most roleplaying is done as there is nothing else to go on with.

b) The Ranger cannot protect anyone without at the very least, a nasty looking knife... what if she was hinting at another type of giftedness? wouldn't it be too convenient for the wolves for the Hunter to take down the Ranger so that that very same night they can take off the Seer? if that happened, it would be smooth sailing from there, barring any majour wolvish mistakes.

c) If you study your history books you will see that long time ago there was a village populated by werewolves which was infiltrated by brave heroes... yes, quite ironic that now the opposite has happened... yet that village also had a "Hunter" who decided to come forward because he was about to be lynched and did not have any good clues with regards to whom to take down with him. He thought that his revelation would stir conversation and it did, alas from the wrong person. The point here is that as Naria saw she was soon to be killed, tried to warn us because if she took down another innocent with her, it would be just playing into the hands of the wolves.

Really, I believe you smarter than that and I think you were trying to push us into making a BIG mistake. Even if you were not, we should try to save Naria, so I propose

++TheGuyWhoBeShort

[the guy who be short]

First thing's first:

Originally Posted by Kuru

I thought so. And if you don’t believe me, please go back and reread how I always tried to defend you but not be too obvious about it. And you being the Seer was one thing I thought Nilp’s death definitively proved…since you asked so politely. (Some confusion had crept into my mind and I wasn’t sure on DAY THREE and felt I needed confirmation.) The reason why I wanted you to come forward was because I didn't want your information to be lost if the wolves reached the same conclusion about you that I had.

This definitely speaks in your favour, Kuru. I'm not willing to name you innocent, but I'm now confident enough to pursue other investigations. Voila les loups-garous!

Predictions:
Naria will not be killed. We still have an Apprentice to replace her.
Lhuna will definitely not be killed. We still have an Apprentice to replace her. And the Ranger will most probably guard her.

I think it's incredibly important that we all, as a village, discuss who Lhuna should dream of this Night. I say discuss, but there are two major drawbacks. The first is that lupine influence will exist, marring the suggestions. The second is that, if one name is definitely chosen, the wolves can just kill that person (if innocent) in the Night. While discussion is necessary, Lhuna should have the final say.

And for Lhuna to decide, she will need evidence to work off of. Which means more analyses. I myself will return in a few hours.


I have just noticed Gurthang's post.

Not necessarily. The Ranger has a tricky job toNight. On the one hand, he will protect Lhuna, so that she can dream of the wolf we will kill toDay. But, knowing that the wolves know that, and so will obviously not choose Lhuna, they can protect someone else, and hopefully pick the same as the wolves. Yet the wolves are reading this thinking 'now we can kill Lhuna because the Ranger won't protect her.' So the Ranger has to protect Lhuna. Which means the wolves won't pick her...

We have an apprentice. So the situation isn't quite as dire as you make it out to be.

As for Cailin as Hunter, well, she hasn't mentioned it so far today. However, I do believe that Cailin is probably the Hunter now, as a wolf would not feign Hunterism so early in the village's life. To do so would immediately bring the suspicion of the real Hunter upon them. So, my vote too will probably go to Naria. Thank's for pointing that out.

I think I now know who the Ranger is too, though perhaps it's just me picking up on things that aren't there.

In any case, Gurthang, I hope you're not gifted, because you will almost certainly die tonight. You're the loudest certain innocent.

As for the Ranger, choose wisely tonight.

[the guy who be short]

I'm not allowed to edit, so ignore the first part of my last post about Naria, where I speak of her as our Hunter.

And now, to my own defence! So far I believe I have counted three people pointing their fingers firmly at me. Evidence, please? Analyses? Motives? Reasons, people! I'm quite happy to die, but fain to do so foolhardily for no cause.