Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

So... A list and A Vote...

Known Innocents
Alcarillo-Known
Naria-Hunter
Lhuna-Seer

Who I think is likely to be innocent
Azaelia- again, I can say I am innocent and I know it, but none of you will know for sure, so here I am.
Cailin-because she still hasn't done anything to make me suspicious
Rune-because, again, he seems reasonable, and hasn't done anything too crafty and clever and wolfish.

Suspicious
Kuruharan-Still. But slightly less so because TGWBS is not a wolf. The scariest thing about him yesterDay was his potential to lay waste to this entire town when paired with TGWBS. Now, I think he does feel defensive (But then again, we all are to some extent, and it's a natural part of this game), and this just doesn't feel right:

Originally Posted by Kuru

Final comment in my own defense that I’m ever going to make (since I’m tired of wasting time on this), I would ask everyone here to remember who here has voted for known wolves the most, me. If you think this is an elaborate plot on my part to get rid of fellow wolves so I can win on my own, then I can only laugh at you. (And will unceasingly if you hang me.)

I know how frustrating it is to defend yourself and have no one listen (see just about every other game of werewolf I've ever played), but that just isn't right. I voted for the one known wolf that we killed: Garin. As did the majority of people!
Amanaduial-Looking back over yesterDay, her posts are very confusing. Seeing all sides of an issue is important, I do agree, and I try to see everything both ways, but there's a line there between helping others to see the big picture, and just creating confusion
Farael-This is left over from yesterDay, really, and I have nothing to compare his behavior against toDay, so he gets away with no vote for me.

Who I just don't know about
Meneltarmacil
Malkatoj

So obviously, I am going to vote for someone on my list of suspicious people. But none of them has said anything toDay, except for something very, very brief from Kuru. And now I attempt to reason myself out of the corner that my schedule has put me in.
Of the three on my list, Kuru would be the most dangerous, were he a wolf. I think.
Aman could just be trying to be helpful and failing...Sometimes thinking aloud can have disasterous results (and don't I know that's true). And I wouldn't want to vote for her simply on that basis.
My main peeve with Farael is that he called for the revelation of the Seer yesterday...but that doesn't seem like a fair reason to me.

At this point, any vote I make will be unfair. It's so early on. And I hate being the first to vote. Especially when none of my suspects have posted yet. So this is a half-random vote. I'll pick the person that I think is most dangerous (yeah that went well yesterDay *sarcastic*), hope for the best, and ask forgiveness in the event that the seer should return in a couple hours time and say that my suspect is, in fact, innocent.

So here's my vote.

++Kuru

Apologies if you're innocent, Kuru...Must feel like you're wearing a Kick Me sign on your back. :-/ (Perhaps you should be flattered that someone thinks you're dangerous? No, that didn't come out quite right)

[Kuruharan]

I'm currently working on an in depth analysis of Amanaduial's posting as well as a voting record for all the survivors. I think it will be rather illuminating. I hope we don't have anymore hasty voting before I can finish...

[Alcarillo]

I'm going to bed now, just to warn you, so you won't hear from me for the rest of the day. I don't think I'll vote today; it's just too early and I'm not sure about anything.

Good luck!

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Well, I had expected this. Poor Gurthang. Lhuna, what can you tell us? I fear it is not much...

Yes, it is not much, but I think it's good enough. I'll tell you all in a sec.

And I do agree about Gurthang. I feel so guilty for having (directly or not) caused his death. Especially at a time like this, he would have been a very great help to us...which could explain why he was killed last Night.

Originally Posted by Amanaduial the Archer

And Cailin - Naria isn't actually proven to be innocent: we only have her word on her being a Hunter. I mean, yeah, very likely, but not completely without doubt.

Aman, this could have something to do with your being a first-timer, but usually when someone claims to be the Hunter, that person is the real deal. Nobody in his/her sane mind will do something like that if not true. Besides, if Naria is really NOT the Hunter, the real one will come out so we could commence with lynching Naria.

But that brings to my mind this unlikely possibility: You are the real Hunter. When I mentioned yesterDay that I've been picking up Hunter hints from someone, it was you that I had in mind. And with your continual opposition of Naria's claim, I'm beginning to think more that you might really be the Hunter. That, or you're a bold wolf. Less likely, a misled or very suspicious ordo.

If my former assumption is right, please come out and say so. It confuses all of us, your hinting (so it seems) that Naria is lying. We're already confused enough looking for the wolves.

Anyways, I'm just wondering who the Ranger could have protected last Night. While I hope it wasn't me, so could go on living two more Days, tops...I think I'll be more helpful dead than alive. Think about it. Unless we lynch a wolf, I won't be getting anything certain - even if I ask the more insightful dead innocents. However, when I am killed and the Apprentice replaces me, they will get the chance to ask dear Formendacil again, as well as Garin. That's two certain dreams automatically.

The risk here, however, is if the wolves get to the Ranger and/or the Apprentice first. And right now, that's a risk we can't take. Not at all.

[Kuruharan]

Amanaduial’s Posting History

DAY ONE

Post 60 – Basic stupid DAY ONE post

Post 102 – Basically another stupid DAY ONE post – votes for me

DAY TWO

Post 169 – Critiques Lhuna for a hasty vote
Says Nilp is strange
Comments on Alcarillo being overly competitive
Makes a completely random and senseless remark about Rune (even though it was in Rune’s favor it was still senseless)
Comments on malkatoj
Then votes for Lhuna in her first post of the DAY, doing the exact same thing she faulted Lhuna for, which seems to have formed the basis for her own vote

Post 171 – Thinks Nilp is innocent

Post 188 – Gurthang had challenged her criticisms of Alcarillo, so she defended herself
Expressed conflicting opinions of Cailín
Then expressed confusion regarding the knowledge possessed by the Cobbler
Then mentioned (obliquely) the possibility she might change her vote

Post 209 – Defended Garin
Attempted to defend Garin by throwing suspicion on Cailín
Says she “thinks” Garin is innocent and further defends him

Post 220 – Does an “oopsie!” for thinking she can change her vote
Criticizes Valier for voting for Garin

Post 225 – Asks if Eluchil’s failure to vote would override Garin’s impending doom.
Says Eluchil still had time
This is a very curious post considering the way she defended Garin and what Garin turned out to be

DAY THREE

Post 233 – Says Valier and Alcarillo are probably innocent
Suspects TGWBS. Lhuna, and malkatoj because they don’t post much
Vague about Meneltarmacil
Suspicious of Nilp
Wonders again about the knowledge of the Cobbler

Post 281 – Now refuses to vote for Nilp, even though she suspected him in the previous post, because Nilp is just like that.
Says her suspicions of Cailín are waning but those of Lhuna seem to be growing
Wants to hear more from Naria and Azaelia
Says Naria is also in line for a vote from her

Post 288 – Still defends Nilp
Votes for Lhuna

Post 291 – Still sort of defends Nilp

DAY FOUR

Post 305 – Says Rune and Farael are probably innocent
Says her suspicions of Lhuna are waning, but she still holds them
Suspects Cailín
Argues against Gurthang – this argument was rejected by Gurthang in post 315

Seer Revelation in post 317

Post 320 – Concedes Gurthang and Alcarillo are innocent
Says Naria looked guilty but is probably the Hunter
Comments that the wolves have lots of choices that NIGHT
Notes that Farael, me, and Naria were the ones most vocal about the Seer revelation
Then faults Naria for suspecting Lhuna (Pot calling Kettle “Black”)
Says will vote for Naria or Farael, which is strange because earlier in this post she said she thought Naria was the Hunter. She does explain she thinks this might be a wolf plan.

Hunter Revelation in post 331

Cailín says she is not the Hunter in 336

Post 354 – Explains why she continues to believe Naria is a wolf in further detail, in spite of these revelations.
Says Naria is currently tied for the lead and since Naria got there first she’d be the one hung under current circumstances (I think this is very important in light of her later vote)
Believes Naria is operating a perfect wolf plan
Still suspects Farael

Post 357 – Voted for Naria, brining back the tie I’d just broken by voting for TGWBS. Was she perhaps hoping somebody else would come along to vote against Naria?

DAY FIVE
Post 367 – Accusatory of me
Says Naria is not proven innocent, but says it is likely that she is. This is an utter contradiction to her behavior on DAY FOUR with no explanation. This is especially troubling in light of her eager pursuit of Naria.

Voting History

Meneltarmacil – Gil-Galad, No Vote, Nilp, TGWBS

Cailín – Gil-Galad, Eluchil, Naria, Naria

Azaelia – Menel, Garin, No Vote, TGWBS, Kuru

Farael – Eluchil, Garin, Nilp, TGWBS

Rune – Gil-Galad, Garin, malkatoj, malkatoj

Alcarillo – Garin, Cailín, Nilp, TGWBS

Lhunardawen – Nilp, Eluchil, Naria, Naria

Amanaduial – Kuru, Lhuna, Lhuna, Naria

Naria – Nilp, Cailín, Nilp, Cailín

Kuruharan – Garin, Garin, Nilp, TGWBS

malkatoj – Nilp, Lhuna, TGWBS, No Vote

Those Who Have Voted Twice for a Wolf
Kuruharan

Those Who Have Voted Once for a Wolf
Alcarillo, Azaelia, Farael, Rune

Those Who Have Never Voted for a Wolf
Meneltarmacil, Cailín, Lhunardawen, Amanaduial, Naria, malkatoj

Voting Order DAY FOUR
Cailín – Naria
Lhunardawen – Naria
Azaelia – TGWBS
Naria – Cailín
TGWBS – Naria
Farael – TGWBS
Menel – TGWBS
Rune – malkatoj
Kuru – TGWBS
Aman – Naria
Gurthang – TGWBS
Alcarillo – TGWBS

I find Amanaduial disturbing for a number of reasons. First of all there are these repeated bits of confusion about the rules, which could be designed to spread confusion among the innocent. Then there is the general style of her postings which are usually either quite brief or long and rambling. The lengthy posts tend to be quite confusing to attempt to sit down and decipher as the meaning can be buried under a prodigious amount of verbage. A few posts also contradict each other from beginning to end. This all could smack very strongly of a wolf who is attempting to appear helpful while in actuality attempting to lead every one astray. Finally, there is the fact that she has never voted for a wolf. Those are my more general reasons for suspicion.

Specifically, she defended our deservedly dead enemy Garin. She actually went to some lengths to do this and posted about it several times. Then there is that very strange post 225 where she’s asking about Eluchil’s death overriding Garin’s. In light of Garin’s status this seems just a touch over-concerned.

Her behavior toward Cailín and Farael could charitably be described as “waffling” and usually for not entirely sound reasons.

However, the real whopper is her behavior toward Naria. Now, granted, she was hardly the only one to express suspicions about Naria. What is different is how she reacted after Cailín declared she was not the Hunter and said Naria was. Not only did Amanaduial continue her pursuit of Naria it became even more strident. She pointed out that Naria was the one currently in line for the chop. After my vote for TGWBS she promptly swooped down and created another tie. As I said above, was she hoping somebody else would come in and off Cailín? Then toDAY Amanaduial says she thinks Naria is at least “innocent” (without explaining herself), which in effect means she now thinks Naria is the Hunter. This is downright incriminating given her behavior yesterDAY.

I believe that yesterDAY Amanaduial was hoping that Naria would be killed and that Naria would kill Cailín (since Naria had voted that way and a dark cloud of suspicion did fall on Cailín for a bit there yesterDAY). This would dispose of two innocents at one blow, and one of them a dangerous innocent at that. ToDAY she’s changed her tactics because she thinks she can score more points by going along with the notion that Naria is the Hunter. She is probably thinking of going after me based on my arguments with Gurthang. We’ll see when we get there.

One thing that could speak in her favor is that she supported Nilp (mostly, she spoke against him in post 233...possibly an attempt to goad the rest of us in one direction while she switched sides). However, this could have been a little ploy on her part to build immunity for herself by supporting somebody who was probably going to get it at some point. Then, afterwards, if people began to seriously call her into question, she could go back and say, "See, I told you so!"

Now, is this an iron-clad case against Amanaduial?

No, I’m afraid it isn’t. Each one of these things taken individually, while some do seem a little more suspicious than others, could be reasonably explained away. However, it is the continual piling of one odd behavior on top of another that really begins to grow alarming. Even so, this could be just a pile of unfortunate circumstances. But, I think this pile reeks strongly of a wolf and I think it deserves serious consideration. (She even voted for our Seer twice.) I'm also not convinced that Cailin has clean hands in all this business, but I think Amanaduial is deserving of our attention for the present.

I do have a tactical suggestion to make, but I’d like to wait for our Seer and our confirmed innocent to offer their opinions before offering it. (I’m afraid Naria doesn’t quite count as “confirmed” even though I’m perfectly prepared to believe her).

[Kuruharan]

Well, I was hoping for something a little more helpful from Alcarillo.

However, our Seer has arrived. Unfortunately, I'm just leaving.

So I'm going to offer my tactical suggestion now. I think you are quite right to demand an answer from Amanaduial about her alleged Hunterness (I personally don't believe it). If she claims to be the Hunter, we have a problem of dueling Hunters. The only available option would be to kill one of them and order them, if they are in fact the Hunter, to kill the other.

It is a bit ruthless, I know, but when you have dueling Hunters it is really the only thing to do.

We also might want to consider killing Naria toDAY if things really become cloudy (i.e. Amanaduial denies being the Hunter and can plausibly explain things away). There is a chance (even though I believe her) that Naria is lying. If she is the Hunter we can tell her to pick her best target. However, I think this is only an option of last resort...

[Cailín]

...Or if someone randomly attacks you with general abandon in a sleepy post. Honestly, by all means suspect me, I can't control your minds, but please do not randomly insult me. Kuru too.

I did not mean to insult you, dear lady, I apologise. I only intended to give strength to my words and could have easily used any other person - because generally, we have all been clueless.

About Naria being the real Hunter or not... if not, then let the real Hunter please step forth. We could double-lynch them (or have them shoot one another) and at least Lhuna will have a wolf to ask toNight. Since no one has said to be the Hunter, however, I am perfectly prepared to believe her.

Great analyses Kuru, that's very helpful. I remember Amanaduial defending me as well, at the start of the game, which made me so sure of her innocence for a while. I shall analyse you after I've had some breakfast, because no one else is likely to do so and I think it would be helpful whether you are innocent or not. Maybe we should try (with the aid of the entire village) building a case for Malkatoj, Meneltarmacil and me in the same way, so we have everyone currently under suspicion covered.

I am not in favour of lynching Naria and have her shoot someone. I would not like losing two innocents and possibly a Gifted who will have no chance to reveal himself in such a scheme.

[Lhunardawen]

Kuruharan, thanks a lot for that very detailed analysis. I guess there is solid ground for Aman to be found suspicious toDay, but there's another lycanthropy issue I'd like to raise: Meneltarmacil.

He was the subject of my dream yesterNight, and while my source isn't exactly the most reliable, a sound enough argument was given that he could be a very bold wolf.

1. It's a perfect cover, pointing out the potential Cobbler during the Day and killing her come Night. No one would think of a wolf killing an ally, more so after one of them points her out, but as I said Days ago the cobbler is completely dispensable as far as the wolf's cover is concerned.

If you will remember, he apologized to Kath after pointing out her use of the word cobbled, saying in his defense that we're all getting a bit paranoid. I don't know about you all, but I guess that increases the cover.

The next Day, after Kath's death, he shrugged and said he just pointed out a potential threat, making the issue less of a big deal than it was before.

2. He defended Nilp during the first two Days, going as far as almost voting for me and ending up voting for Gil-galad because we both voted for Nilp. Fair enough, I suppose...

But by Day 3, he made a complete 180 and decided to join the "Lynch Nilp!" campaign. Why the sudden turnaround?

3. His primary suspects, he said, were Gurthang and me...until I revealed myself. He said he's back to square one, and points vaguely at tgwbs, for no reason. Who turns out to be an ordo.

A lot of people did that, actually, and I guess it's a safe guess that at least one of our remaining lupine friends voted for him. Seriously, I don't even understand how he managed to be lynched yesterDay. Anyone care to explain that?

For the record, Zali, Farael, Menel, Kuru, Gurthang, and Alcarillo all voted for tgwbs. The list includes two of our known innocents, but I'm pretty sure at least one of these is a wolf.

Well, I don't know. I just don't know. Maybe I'm grasping at straws (again ), but at least by raising some suspicions we can hopefully find them answered, and that could help us.

Kuru, by the way, I'm wondering about this: How did you come up with the idea that I might be the Seer? And how did Nilp's death prove it?

[Lhunardawen]

Innocent, definitely:
Lhuna
Alcarillo

Most likely innocent:
Naria --> I'm now prepared to believe her unless Aman suddenly comes out and claims to be the Hunter...now that would be messy.
Cailín

So innocent-seeming that I'll kill myself if they turn out to be the wolves after all:
Rune
Farael
Zali

Dodgy (read: quite suspicious):
Menel
Kuruharan --> I'm sorry, but I can't let go of my suspicion just yet...
Aman
malka

Well, that didn't help...

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

So I'm going to offer my tactical suggestion now. I think you are quite right to demand an answer from Amanaduial about her alleged Hunterness (I personally don't believe it). If she claims to be the Hunter, we have a problem of dueling Hunters. The only available option would be to kill one of them and order them, if they are in fact the Hunter, to kill the other.

It is a bit ruthless, I know, but when you have dueling Hunters it is really the only thing to do.

We also might want to consider killing Naria toDAY if things really become cloudy (i.e. Amanaduial denies being the Hunter and can plausibly explain things away). There is a chance (even though I believe her) that Naria is lying. If she is the Hunter we can tell her to pick her best target. However, I think this is only an option of last resort...

I'm a little wary of this. If they both turn out to be innocent, we'll be losing two innocents in a single blow. Plus another one during the Night...which could be me.

Last resort? Hmm...I guess we'll have to wait for Aman. Unfortunately, I can't.

(Oh, where is Gurthang when you need him... )

Okay, my guess is that Naria really is the Hunter. Otherwise, Aman could have instinctively jumped out and cried "Liar!" If Aman admits to being the Hunter, I guess we have no choice but to pursue the duel...but if she doesn't, I'm not yet too sure about lynching her.

I fear, somewhere deep inside, that this is yet another manipulative move to lynch an innocent. I'm very sorry Kuru, but I guess you can't blame me for being so suspicious. This isn't the first time something like this has happened.

Where is the double-lynching rule when you need it...

I'll be back for a vote, and then I must go.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm afraid we have too many targets toDay: (Naria), Aman, Menel, and Kuru (at least for me). This makes it a lot easier for the wolves - whoever the Angband they are - to hide, wherever the Angband they are.

Oh wait...

Originally Posted by Gurthang, his last ever post

Kuru, if I die toNight, look at Amana's second to last post. That longer one.

Apparently Gurthang trusted Kuru enough to leave Aman's case to him. Sounds perfectly reasonable.

Conassign to Mordor my suspicious self, but it could be another perfect cover for Kuru. Of course he'll do as Gurthang asked ere his death, and none of us will think of suspecting Kuru for that.

I'm quite sure that if Aman and Kuru are the wolves, they are prepared to fight against each other to death to leave the other alive and completely covered. But assuming so might be pushing it...well, who knows...

I guess, Master Dwarf, that you can't blame me for suspecting you too much. You're a powerful ally, but a formidable foe. And I guess we can risk our ally to prove he's not a wolf. Or at least, I can.

++KURUHARAN

Of course, the Hunter issue can't be abandoned just like that. I'll leave you loyal innocent villagers to settle it...please do it with as little bloodshed as possible, if you can. We'll deal with the other suspects later.

Ranger, it's completely your call if you will protect me toNight. I guess it's better for the Apprentice to take over as I explained above, but I fear for both of you. At least two of us three should remain alive as long as possible. Otherwise, the village will be lost.

And if ever I do die toNight, Apprentice, I trust you are prepared to take my place. Mine, or the Ranger's. If you become the Seer, be sure to ask Moderadacil about Kuru, if he hasn't been lynched yet. Or else ask about our other suspects. If you don't find a wolf, conceal yourself and ask Garin the next Night.

Village, please lynch a wolf toDay. Easier said than done, I know, but it has to be done.

Farewell...

[Amanaduial the archer]

Yes. Where is Gurthang when you need him? He would surely be able to add to Kuru's 'analytical' post (and if you could insert 'suspicious' instead of the repeated 'stupid', sir, I would be most obliged) in which he points out only really the most incriminating facts.

In light of the analysis of my Hunter position, I'm pretty much beggared no matter what I say, right? If I say I'm the Hunter, we have a duel, and bearing in mind Kuru's witch-hunt, I'll probably end up dead; yet if I say I'm not the Hunter, it may seem that I'm merely playing up to Lhuna's words:

Okay, my guess is that Naria really is the Hunter. Otherwise, Aman could have instinctively jumped out and cried "Liar!" If Aman admits to being the Hunter, I guess we have no choice but to pursue the duel...but if she doesn't, I'm not yet too sure about lynching her.

So if I say I'm not, hey, I'll probably end up dead. Again. So I guess you're just going to have to believe me when I reply: No. Actually, I'm not the Hunter. I'm not convinced that Naria is, but I'm not.

Kuru...goodness, sir, an 'iron clad case'? Well, I'm glad you didn't leave it at that, I'm sure you are not that naive, but I thought you were persecuting me for seeing both sides of the case - the repeated references to my own hypocrisy could easily, it would appear, be turned around to backfire onto you. However, I have no intention of letting this turn into a personal attack on Kuru, or of over-analysing your over-analysis - granted, you do make several points which may, I admit, seem suspicious - but only when viewed with a certain sort of eyes. If anyone does wish me to explain away that entire post, then I will, certainly, but I do not really feel it to be the most important thing at the moment: to focus on myself when we are trying to find a wolf would seem rather self-obsessed, not to mention pointless - and also, no doubt, would be construed as 'suspicious', bearing in mind Cailin was earlier suspected of such behaviour being suspicious. But if you wish me to attempt to explain to you the examples in that post (I shall refrain from adding any adjectives), say the word. (I will probably have to explain a few of them later toDay anyway - the question of Naria, for example). And I shall attempt not to make my explanation as personally judgemental as yours.

I have to go now - much work to do, and English coursework for next week. But, for fear of seeming to be just turning on Kuru because he's attacking me (funny how your opinion of me turned about when I considered you suspicious), I ask you to consider that post, as well as his general posting style, and to consider at the same time the phrase "The lady doth protest too much..."