Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Lhunardawen]

This will be my last post before the day ends where I am, unless some miracle occurs.

I know it will surprise all of you - except the wolves , if ever, of course - but I have reason to believe that Aman is innocent. At least this is the verdict that one of the most reliable (though dead) villagers reached when I asked him about her (and no, it's not Kuru).

First, her votes are consistent - albeit consistently wrong: Kuru, Lhuna, Lhuna, Naria, Kuru. We'd expect a more erratic voting pattern for a wolf which usually includes one fellow wolf, whereas all of Aman's votes so far are directed at innocents (I'm no longer doubting Naria).

And second, no one had voted for her prior to yesterDay. Again, we'd expect wolf-on-wolf voting for cover, at least on the first Days.

Of course after she had come under heavy fire the past Day I don't expect you to release your suspicions of her just yet. But right now, I think it's better for us to lynch Menel instead of her...unless something interesting that sounds like "I'm a wolf!" comes up in my absence. And whatever happens, I expect you loyal villagers to do what you know must be done for the good of the village. Anyone who does otherwise shall face my terrible wrath.

I shall be back a few hours ere the Day ends (which is practically tomorrow before noon, GMT+8) to see what transpires and to cast my vote. Innocents, take care of the village in my absence.

[Cailín]

Cailin, I agree with your logic in basis, but am not sure that the Seer would actually be the best one to protect tonight - surely the Ranger is a more important asset?

Hmm no, Aman. First, a Ranger cannot protect himself... and second, what good is a Ranger when he does no other job than saving himself Night after Night? Besides, we need Lhuna around if we manage to kill a wolf and have again a completely reliable source, so there is no other possible scenario for toNight. Even though you may not have accepted Naria as the Hunter yet, the rest of us have, which makes her too dangerous for the wolves to stay alive.

So toDay we're deciding on both a lynchee and a huntee. Of course, Naria has the final say in the huntee, but I fear she might decide to actually shoot the Apprentice / Ranger, so it would be a good thing for her to make her huntee public. If the wolves then do not kill her toNight, that would also suggest she has picked the right target.

For now I argee with Lhuna and say we kill Menel toDay and hunt Aman during the Night (sorry, guys). But I wish to analyse all our quiet ones first so I may once more remember why we do not suspect them and if that is fair. I have this sinking feeling in my stomach that we may be on the wrong track entirely, so no one is going to escape having his posts reviewed toDay.

[Amanaduial the archer]

Originally Posted by Aman

I was completely convinced that our wolves are brilliant or at least very good in hiding, but now I see that they're not really very bright at all.

Ooh, she's scathing! I shouldn't think insulting them would be the best thing, they'll come after you just because of injured pride! But indeed, that is at best rather careless of the wolves - but personally I wouldn't regard it as suspicious, I do view it as probably just being a slipup. Now, maybe that's just me being biased because, as Lhuna said, the survival of Naria who voted for me yesterday does somewhat seem to incriminate me - but please, survey the following the following voting logic from post #392:

Originally Posted by Naria

I am on the fence with both of them but more inclined to go with Aman, since I'm not convinced that she believes in my innocence(from yesterday's vote & post and today's posts)and would gladly watch me hang.

This certainly gives the impression that, basically, I get Naria's vote because she sees me as a threat to her personally from the village: I consider her suspicious therefore she tried to take me out in order to protect herself. Now, while this definitely does absolutely nothing to assuage my own personal suspicions of Naria (alright, there were fading, but right now? Shootin' up again ), it should at least act as some defence of me: Naria didn't so much vote for me because she thought I was a wolf, more because I was a threat to her. This may be wrong, she didn't make a very long post yesterday so I'm working with what I've got, but hey, that's my take on it. Maybe Malkatoj would be a more worthy object of our suspicion based on Naria's post: where Naria voted for me seemingly purely to protect herself from my suspicions (I had voiced suspicions about her and therefore, as a fellow villager, I posed a 'threat'), she also voiced suspicions about Malka, but did not, I deem, make the reasons quite clear enough.

Maybe she was simply going on other people's suspicons on this shady character, but other people have already voiced concern about Malka - but none of us can really find enough evidence against her. Or really any substantial evidence at all. Often the most we can amount it to is a 'bad feeling', and I'm not sure that really can stand up strongly enough when it's a life or death situation. Certainly, Malka bears post analysis, although I don't have time to do it now. Similarly Azaelia definitely bears analysis: where Malka has got the rather rough end of the stick based on her silence and is being considered guilty until proven innocent, general consensus on Azaelia seems to be that she is innocent until proven guilty, again based on her silence. Is she a wolf staying low, or merely with limited computer access? Hmm.

No more time right now, sorry - I must fly, for The Miller's Tale calls...

[Cailín]

Amanaduial - please accept Naria's innocence. If she were not an innocent, the real Hunter would have come out and said something a long time ago since we then would have been able to catch a wolf. I know you are inexperienced, but this should seem rather logical even to someone who has never played before. Our Gifteds are no use when they stay hidden if they know a wolf. That's what the game's all about: catching wolves, and your stubbornness on this account is highly alarming. Small wonder Naria decided to vote for you. You will make things a lot easier on yourself if you can accept Naria as a known innocent.

Now to business:

Rune

#70, 72

In character Day 1 posts

#103

Agrees with Gurthang’s famous Seer plan.

#116

Expresses desire to vote for someone on the Nilp wagon. Quoting:

Naria
Malkatoj
Gíl-Galad

I have left Luhna out for now because she was the first to vote for Nilp (not counting him self)and because she tend to get annoyed by people acting like Nilp.

Interesting because Rune seems to be defending Lhuna from the start.

#127

First to vote for Gil, second wagon.

Day 2

#178

Nothing much, explicitly does not clear Menel.

#184

Nothing, really.

#186

Suspects Garin and Meneltarmacil.

#191

Lightly suspects Malkatoj.

Quote:

This is why I will not write Menel off as inoccent, actually I need the seer's word before I belive in the inoccens of anyone.

Luhna if you are a wolf I will start weeping for once again I am convinced of you innocens!

Now is not this odd??

Further says to be wanting to vote for Menel or Garin. Possibly Malka as well.

#200

Votes for Garin. I’m not sure how I feel about this. Both Lhuna and me had two votes by then, so Rune was tying the scores. Might be he felt me or Lhun would gather more votes anyway and this would clear him in the future.

#203

Further defends Lhuna.

Day 3

#271

Claims we hurt his brain.

#273

Agrees Nilp’s death might be telling.
TGWBS is too neutral.
Lhuna has finally managed to make him doubt her innocence.
Still suspects Menel and Malkatoj.
Does not know about Kuru, clears Valier.

#283

Votes for Malkatoj, believes Nilp is innocent.

Day 4

#311

Understands why wolves chose Valier. Is glad he is mentioned too. (though he is really only mentioned by people who are convinced of his innocence).

#335

Is sooner prepared to believe me the Hunter than Naria. Is thus willing to vote for:

TGWBS
Naria
Menel
Malkatoj

#347

Believes still in Menel and Malka’s guilt.

#351

Too confused about TGWBS to vote. Votes Malkatoj instead.

Day 5

#370
Keeps insisting we should consider Malkatoj.

#391

Again, all about Menel and Malkatoj. At least he’s consistent.

#398

Little fight with Malkatoj here. Believes Malkatoj should be on our to-lynch list, to put it in my own words.

--

For now, Rune seems as innocent as they come and I think we should try listening to him when it comes to Malkatoj and Meneltarmacil. Should these two prove to be innocent, we can always take a second look at Rune. For now, however, I'll trust Rune as much as I can. Though I do want an answer to one question: what made you so sure of Lhuna's innocence?

[Cailín]

Day 1

#63

Typical Day one post. Playfully accuses Farael and Eluchil.

#66

Thinks Menel should perhaps not be so random.

#106

Fourth to vote for Nilpaurion Felagund. Claims to have no better idea plus the overly familiar strange feeling.

Day 2

#156

Defends her vote by saying she cross-posted (though a third vote is as bandwagon-ish as a fourth on Day 1).

(Note: I am a student, and my time is therefore limited. With an earlier voting deadline, I'll almost always have to post my votes early and therefore with less evidence or reasoning than others who have time later may have. I'm in EST, by the way.)

Malkatoj, I mean nothing offensive by this, but look at Nilp or Lhuna’s votes – they are always early, but basically never unreasoned.

Suspects Menel and TGWBS for voting for Gil.

#196

Considering your earlier quote, this seems strange to say:

Anyway, I find both Lhunardawen and Alcarillo's early votes suspicious. Neither of them have a lot of (or any) reasoning behind them.

Suspects Alca, votes for Lhunardawen.

#199

Defends herself and her silence again.

Day 3

#234

Suspects TGWBS, Alcarillo, Lhunardawen, Nilpaurion Felagund and Gurthang. All known innocents now. Would a wolf not at least include its fellow to provide some cover? Possibly not.

Thinks one of the people who voted for Garin might have been a wolf:

Farael
Rune
Azaelia
Valier
Kuruharan
Gurthang

#238

Tells zombie Eluchil to stay dead.

#268

Votes for TGWBS (because he’s silent, and how ironic)

No posts on Day 4

Day 5

#371

Continues ranting about lack of time and some curious place called school.

#395

Continues defending herself. Suspects Meneltarmacil and Amanaduial.

#401

Votes for Menel.

--

Not a whole lot to go on, but then again, Rune has not posted much either and yet provides better reasoning and all together seems far more innocent. High school can be harsh, Malka, but you could still be a wolf who finds this forced absense all too convenient. I would consider Malkatoj for the gallows toDay.

[Cailín]

I'm starting to feel rather weary of scrutinizing posts for clues for now... So here's my midday review and I hope to see more useful posts from others later on.

Known Innocents

Lhunardawen
Naria
Cailín (again, personal, of course)

Probably Innocent

Rune

Don't knows

Azaelia
Farael

Suspicious

Amanaduial
Malkatoj
Meneltarmacil

Though anyone besides those in the first category could yet be guilty. I have officially stopped underestimating each and every one of you.

My proposed strategy - also for now:

Lynch Malkatoj toDay. Even if she turns out to be innocent, her continued absense is not very helpful. If Malkatoj turns out to be a wolf, I'd feel a lot better about some of the others - like Rune for example, and everyone who has been on her case since the beginning.

If Malkatoj is a wolf, hunt Amanaduial during the Night. Their lack of mentioning each other is highly disturbing and leads me to believe they might be allies during Night time.

If Malkatoj is innocent, hunt Meneltarmacil or possibly still Amanaduial.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Now consider that Rune did not vote yesterDay. We could believe his RL excuse, or maybe we could not. But just one thing I have to ask you, Rune, is this:

While it felt good to me at that time to know that someone completely believes in my innocence, now I find myself wary. How were you able to ascertain my innocence when I was pretty much being suspected by everybody?

Well It is a long time since now and I can of course not remember my thoughts at that exact moment, I guess you will have to settle with a strange explanation. Lhuna have I not allways been able to tell if you where innocent or not? Three villages have we been in and in every one of them I have declared that you are the only one I belive to be innocent. (It has cost me my life two times, you are a dangerous acquaintance miss Lhuna) The only time I questioned it was when you had your neurvos brake down. I guess it is your logic that strikes me as beeing very like mine, maybe logic is not the word. I get you thoughts, now that allsi sounded wrong. I hope you know what I mean.

I have not postet before, because I have had nothing to say at all, as allways I want to vote Malkatoj or Menel.

P.S. As I said in the paning thread I fell asleep in front of the cpu, I was very sick remember. (about me not voting)