Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Cailín]

Okay – I’ll share something rather embarassing with you all. I make schedules. Obsessively. So I also have schedules for all WW games I have ever participated in. Right now, I’m looking at the one for this game… And here follow some immediate thoughts:

For now I have the following people marked as innocent:

Cailín
Nilpaurion Felagund
The Saucepan Man
Malkatoj
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
Marcolie Lamen
WaynetheGoblin

Most of these are based on gut feeling and I may be way off. I just thought that Nilpaurion has a rather easy time this game. He gathered no votes other than his own yesterDay and is still not suspected. Really, I suppose the safest Day 1 vote is to vote for yourself and Nilp would be just as suicidal as a wolf: he couldn’t afford to change strategies. Besides, it’s perfect. No one is even mentioning him right now.
I added Malkatoj to the list after her vote for Aiwendil. That was just too weird. The others are just feelings.

Then there are a few silent people… I don’t know about them. They are no good to lynch toDay, I suppose, with the possible exception of Valier, just because their death would tell us naught:

Naria
Valier
Formendacil

Then there are people whom I am genuinely concerned about. Mostly because you can never trust them:

Kath
Shelob
TGWBS
Garin

And I have a separate category for two of the loudest players who have pretty much avoided to mention each other, which is just strange:

Dancing Spawn
Mormegil

The first worries me in particular, though I might be prejudiced because I am on her radar. She provides excellent analyses, and yet easily skips over a few parts that would not work for her theory. This mask of perfect reason is definitely worrisome and uncharacteristic of a stumbling innocent – or maybe she is just that good.

My vote, however, will probably be for one of the people in the pre-final category. I shall analyse all their posts before coming to a conclusion.

By the way, Valier, I do agree with you but since Garin has not been too succesful in the previous games, he might have just considered a change of strategy?

[Valier]

By the way, Valier, I do agree with you but since Garin has not been too succesful in the previous games, he might have just considered a change of strategy?

Sounds possible...But What if that's what he wants us to think that he's quiet this game because he always gets killed. I am more inclined to think he's a wolf because I believe his mouth would run ramped no matter what. Killing me is an easy target, I am innocent I assure you!

[Cailín]

TGWBS

#4

Lists suspicion of us all. Especially Kath.

#6

Says I am not a mermaid. Psht. Ridiculous.

#53

Suspects Wayne (because of his vote for Formendacil, mostly), Gil-Galad (because his initial defensiveness), Abercrombie (for voting Nilp. TGWBS has a strange fondness for the mentally unstable), Mormegil (basically same as my concerns) and SpM (because of his self-centeredness).

He also declares Glirdan and Nilpaurion innocent until proven otherwise.

#57

Demands explanations from Mormegil and Garin. Lets go of his suspicion of SpM a little.

#59

Votes Abercrombie.

#64

Accepts Mormegil’s explanation.

#65

Lists votes

#104

Lists votes

#113

Nothing really. Says he has similar ideas as SpM and offers a plausible suggestion.

Well, these posts goes a long way into me believing TGWBS innocent. If only he would say a bit more toDay.

GARIN

#42

Useless Day one analysis. Same thing I’m so fond of. Says nobody knows anything.

#55

Says he wishes to vote for Marcolie because she has not spoken yet. Aligns himself with Mormegil. Says he shall likely vote for Valier. Thinks Sauce an innocent, ‘because he always is’.

#58

Says he will flip a coin between Abercrombie and Valier.

#61

Blames the coin and votes for Valier.

#75

Blames the coin again.

#103

Says again that the first Day is random. Thinks we should look at isolated votes. Then something about having no social manners.

Now Garin does look suspicious in my eyes. He mostly just agrees with Saucy and Morm, which is always clever because they are likely people to bring up a case against you. His coin flipping sounds a little weird. First he is inclined to vote Marcolie, then – after Mormegil’s vote – wishes to vote for Valier and after SpM’s vote he’s suddenly more convinced of Abercrombie (as he said, he merely voted Valier because of the coin). ToDay he was eager to not be under suspicion by pointing out isolated votes are more suspicious than voting for innocents.

Hopefully I have time to do more people later on. Who's feeling up to analysing Saucy?

[The Saucepan Man]

Hurrah! Some more contributions to our debate. But they seem to be coming from the same people each time ...

Interesting how there seems to be a collective suspicion for Kath and Shelob developing - and to a lesser degree, Garin. It is possible that this is the result of Wolfish manipulation against innocents, but there are more people involved in this than Wolfish manipulation alone could account for. And those voicing these suspicions seem to be those that I have little reason to suspect at the moment.

I am thinking in particular of mormegil, dancing spawn and Cailín, all of whom seem to be thinking along the same lines as me as far as Kath and Shelob are concerned. As is malkatoj, who I am now pretty sure is innocent (based on her mistaken vote). Now I doubt that there is more than one Wolf, if any, among this lot. If there is and he or she is responsible for this gathering mood, then he or she is a very skilled manipulator indeed.

I remain slightly suspicious of Glirdan and would like to hear further from him. And I share some of the reservations expressed (particularly by Valier and Cailín) about Garin's behavior. It seemed to me yesterday that he was playing his cards close to his chest (and I said as much), and he certainly has been doing so today.

One point to pick you up on, Cailín:

I just thought that Nilpaurion has a rather easy time this game. He gathered no votes other than his own yesterDay and is still not suspected.

Nilp attracted three votes yesterday (his own, Abercrombie's and Naria's). But, his suicidal tendencies notwithstanding, I see little reason to suspect him at this stage. True, he would act suicidal whether innocent or a Wolf, but that alone is no reason to suspect him. Do you have any other reason for your suspicions?

[Valier]

Well it's coming close to the time I have to leave and I won't be back till after the vote.My suspisions of Garin I think are the most pressing on my mind for this day. He makes me nervous,with not knowing if he's a wolf or not...but today I do believe he is a wolf,His posting pattern is completely off, He needs to go sooner than later!

++Garin

Hope everyone votes well today and lynches us a wolf!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by SpM

EDIT: Also, I am unsure on the legality of voting for someone who is already dead and then subsequently voting for someone else (living). Given the non-retractability rule, is it allowed? Just want to be clear whether malkatoj's (second) vote will count.

I'd appreciate if Modetarmacil could enlighten us on this matter soon. However, my broadband connection is acting really weird and I think it would be best for me to vote now while it's still working. I try to come back to discuss with you later, but I want to make sure that I can vote.

Originally Posted by Cailín

She provides excellent analyses, and yet easily skips over a few parts that would not work for her theory.

Such as?
Well, anyway, the wolves aren't plain stupid, they won't act suspiciously all the time. I pick up the things I find questionable and build a theory out of them. My theories may be right or wrong, but I hope that they'd make us more talkative.

I can't for my life understand the reason why you put mormegil and I into one group saying that we don't mention each other often enough, so I won't go into that.

Btw, did you notice, you did it again: you mentioned that you, too, find Shelob suspicious, but then left it at that and started analyzing TGWBS and Garin. Were you satisfied with my summary of Shelob? Sure you don't want to add something I skipped in order to make my theory work.

Originally Posted by Sauce

True, he would act suicidal whether innocent or a Wolf

No, he wouldn't. (Although I guess that's not enough for a defense in a court.)

Ah, I can't decide yet whom I should vote for. I'll take the risk and leave voting for later till more people have said something.

[Garin]

I apologize for not posting more but I am currently at work and have decided to actually do my job today. I will return to post my vote and am taking a little time to go over everyone elses material.

[mormegil]

I have stated elsewhere but I will do so here, there has been a recent influx in my business and I have a promotion to supervisor smith which makes it more difficult to debate things as often.

Now too many of us are willing to write off Malka for ridiculous vote for Aiwendil. Now maybe it's just me but as a wolf I'd be willing to attempt that and look it has given her immune status in the minds of many. I'm not ready to give up on her yet.

I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned. Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.

Kath is still unnerving though I've seen suspicious behavior from her before which was unfounded so I will give her another day or two.

++Cailin

Though Valier recent assertion of her innocence raised my eyebrow a bit and perhaps I may rue not voting for her.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

Well, could one reason be that they all have posted toDay? It's much easier to talk about people who post than those who remain completely silent (or have posted only once or twice anyway).

Quite possibly so. Although my suspicions of Kath and Garin were originally aroused yesterday.

In any event, it is annoying that more people have not contributed so far today, as I must vote now or not vote at all.

We have three votes cast. One for malkatoj, which pre-dates her initial vote for Aiwendil, and which I suspect few if any will follow (unless they really do think it was a feindish bluff). And (assuming that malkatoj's second vote stands) one each for two of those who are, as matters stand, today's main suspects. In other words, the voting currently stands as follows:

Nilp for malkatoj
malkatoj for Kath
Valier for Garin

Well, I will place my vote for the third of those who have come under particular suspicion today.

++SHELOB

I outlined the reasons for my suspicion of her earlier. To summarise, she seems to be trying to be present without committing herself too much - to be contributing without saying anything useful - which seems out of character to me. And I am somewhat swayed by the fact that others (who I currently have no particular reason to suspect) feel the same way. I elected to vote for Shelob, rather than Kath, Glirdan or Garin (my other main suspects at the moment) because I don't have enough to go on as far as Glirdan is concerned and, assuming that malkatoj's vote for Kath is valid, I think that it remains sensible to keep the voting field as wide as possible. I would counsel those who follow in casting their votes to bear that last point in mind.

Edit: Cross-posted with mormegil.

[Cailín]

Nilp attracted three votes yesterday (his own, Abercrombie's and Naria's).

Ack! I'm sorry. I knew that and yet somehow I typed something completely different. My brains must be um... well... something bad.

Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.

You give me more credit than I deserve, Mormegil. Anyway - I hope that if I survive toDay I may be able to convince you otherwise.

Btw, did you notice, you did it again: you mentioned that you, too, find Shelob suspicious, but then left it at that and started analyzing TGWBS and Garin.

I was going to do Kath and Shelob, but ran out of time. It happens.

[Cailín]

SHELOB

#23

Hopes for a miracle. Says she’ll wait to see how things develop.

#67

Does not understand the votes for Valier. Sees a little reasoning behind voting for Abercrombie, but does not seriously believe her guilty. Garin unsettles her.

#71

Does not wish to vote for Abercrombie nor Valier. Votes Garin.

#91

Thinks Aiwendil’s death was meant to confuse us.

#96

Disagrees with Saucy concerning the triangle thing.

--

It seems the only reason I have for suspecting Shelob is that she is not contributing as much as we’re used to. She has only suspected Garin, a safe suspect if he’s innocent, and was reluctant to be the cause of the death of an innocent yesterDay. Not sure what to make of her, there’s too little evidence.

And Spawn, I'm not doing this because I think you are incapable. I'm doing this because I don't trust you.

[the guy who be short]

Apologies to people who have mentioned my quietness - College, then circumstances.

But, here are some promised analyses:

Death of Abercrombie

1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. Waynethe Goblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

(Thank you SpM - I stole yours, as it was presented much more prettily.)

What's noticable? The Abercrombie bandwagon started late - and that's odd. SpM was the first to vote for her, and there seemed little chance of her being lynched then. A "safe" vote, but I don't think this incriminating, partially because I'm inclined to trust SpM, and partly because, with voting so spread out, almost all votes could be considered "safe" early on.

The second vote was from me, bringing Abercrombie up to two votes - the highest the other candidates had at the time too. This, also, I don't consider "safe" - if anything, I consider it the opposite, as it brought Abercrombie into the list of potentially lynchable people.

Spawn was the next to vote. I'm not sure what to make of her. This was when Valier also had three votes, again tying. Without knowing Valier's identity, we can't infer anything.

Aiwendil voted next - and died in the night. I'm not sure what to make of this - hopefully I will have time for an analysis of Aiwendil's words and potential reasons he was killed, but that will be next post, if at all. What relevance it has here, I'm not sure.

Finally, Kath's vote for Abercrombie. Not wolvish at all. Just look at the numbers involved when she voted - it was an incriminating, non-wolf thing to do.

So, I must say, I feel that all those voting for Abercrombie were innocent. This is not only because I was in the group - it seemed like a rational thing to do, at the time, and while I regret her innocence, I believed it to be logical.

There are claims that Aiwendil's death may have been calculated to take the spotlight off those who voted for him. I don't support this - I think it put more emphasis and more mystery around those voting for Abercrombie.
But then, perhaps I simply feel so as I am in that group of voters...

As for who I feel could be guilty, that comes...

[the guy who be short]

Looking at the voting record (above) several names stand out. These are the seriously "safe" votes, votes unlikely to affect the outcome, apathetic votes that show little interest in divining innocence. In short, condemnable votes.

In order, then:

14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

These are the real no votes. Shelob bringing Garin into play - fair enough if you don't believe Valier or Abercrombie to be guilty, but what about Nilp, Wayne, Formen? No feelings?

Glirdan for SpM - the same applies!

Naria for Nilp - idiocy. Voting for Nilp was not only pointless, it was detrimental to the village. There is no reason to vote for him in normal circumstances.

I would gladly vote for any of the three, but as it is, time runs short.


At present we have a vote for malka, a vote for Kath, a vote for Garin, a vore for Cailin and a vote for Shelob.

Though I suspect Shelob too, I think I'll go for Naria to give a wide range of possibilities for those still to vote, making it harder for wolves to hide. And I did warn those who vote for Nilp... (About that by the way - intuition, nothing more, Nilp. You're just a nutter who likes dying, and I get annoyed when people help you - it isn't good for the village. If you actually are a wolf, I'll faint).

++NARIA

[Márcolië Lamen]

Because I may have little time, I'm going to start by listing those I seem most guilty and general reasons. If I end up with time I'll go through either post by post or at least analysing and quoting specific things. I hope I have the time to do that.

Villagers
Cailín-seems to be the one who's steering others thoughts most noticably now along with SpM, which is a very wolvish thing to do. However, because it is so early in the game, this is either a much safer, or much more dangerous position to be in if a wolf. I suspect Calin but she's not currently my top suspicion because it's almost too bold at this point to me, depending on the group.
Nilpaurion Felagund A suicidal one is always odd. Don't know anything about Nilp now. Suspicious only for living.
The Saucepan Man is one who is suspicious because of the strength at playing. I really don't know now at all how to look at SpM
Malkatoj...that was one strange vote. I doubt it was a wolvish bluff, mainly because its so out there. We can't just forget about it, but I'm more reclined to focus efforts elseware.
Gil-Galad has given little to workwith like always. Toss of the dice as to where he stands. I really don't know.
Glirdan in my mind someone being used to change where we're looking from last night. I don't think Glirdan is guilty, because of that.
Marcolie Lamen What can I say about myself? I wasn't here yesterday, and haven't said much, because of time constrants on my part, and its not like I'd look at myself as guilty.
WaynetheGoblin similarly to Gil-Galad someone who says very little and gives us nothing to go by. The first posts were uncharactaristically long though. I'd personally vote for Wayne over Gil-Galad because of this.
Naria collecting votes. I would agree that Naria looks suspicous at the time, because of voting yesterday, and quietness.
Valier in a similar position to Naria. They're so quiet they'd not tell us very much. Three votes for her yesterday.
Formendacil has been quiet but gave reasons. Not suspicious for this, so low on my suspision list.
Kath- an active name today early on, but recently dying down. Kath isn't the highest on my suspision, but can't be trusted either.
Shelob uncharacteristically quiet, in terms of giving little information. I cannot analyze and take out suspision on Shelob because in attempting to I'd alter how I was thinking. I'm too trusting of her to play werewolf against her. I'll read and comment on other peoples examinations, but I cannot make my own. Explaining this mainly because its a strange situation.
TGWBS has been vocal, but not overly so. Was looking at so-called throw away votes recently, which has a point, but which its hard for me to agree on after one day. Suspicious because seems to be in a very easily hid position.
Garin ever since I started reading this something hasn't sat right with me on Garin. I don't know exactly why, but because of this Garin has top suspicousness in my mind. However, looking at yesterday and those he'd vote for makes him even more suspicious. He talks about three and votes for one though not seeminly for a reason. I would probably be less suspicious of Garin if the vote had been for me. Also seems very easily swayable by SpM and morm
Dancing Spawn has been a very helpful poster with summaries. Not too guilty at the moment, but in a position where it'd be really easy to switch over.
Mormegil- Its scary to have Morm and SpM agreeing. Its like something has to be up. I seriously doubt both of them are wolves though.

If I was to vote now it'd be for Garin, but I have time, so lets see what happens between now and then.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Sauce

Interesting how there seems to be a collective suspicion for Kath and Shelob developing - and to a lesser degree, Garin.

Well, could one reason be that they all have posted toDay? It's much easier to talk about people who post than those who remain completely silent (or have posted only once or twice anyway).

That's why I'd like to wait with my vote till everybody has arrived.

[malkatoj]

Malkatoj, did you really vote for Aiwendil without realising that he was already dead, or did you type his name mistakenly, meaning to vote for someone else? It's an important distinction.

Typed the wrong name there, Mr. Saucepan. It rivals forgetting which side of my car my gas tank is on for the dumbest thing I've done today. I should sleep at night. The name 'Aiwendil' was dancing around in my head (something to do with suspicious vote, but he's dead so it didn't matter) and Kath came out Aiwendil.

Formendacil is acting kind of strange, but I don't see any wolfishness, just strangeness.

I'm inclined to trust Mormegil, also. His reasoning makes him seem innocent enough.

Since, right now, it looks like Shelob'll be lynched...well, she seems wolfish enough. But I do have a message from her: she's trapped in school and won't be able to post again today. She wanted me to mention this earlier but I was too busy realizing what I had just posted, so I forgot.

Kath, my vote for you was from the Crombie bandwagon. I meant to in the first place, as I explained earlier here.

[Shelob]

Not quite true Malka, but thanks for finally mentioning my trappedness. In my defense, and to that point, I will not check barrowdowns in school, I feel realy bad when I do and (If I'm caught) I get yelled at. Since My Personal school day starts at around 6 (when I wake up) and ends at 4 I'm stuck.

Given then that I've only had a brief chance to read things I'll address all accusations towards me tomorrow (if I live) and, since I don't really want to die. Vote

++Cailin

it's the best that I can do and I do appologise.

(though to be fair Suace, the only other times I've added information to the conversations I've actually had information...and time...ah, time...what I wouldn't give for some of that...)

[Garin]

I promise to serve the village better but beg you to understand my dilemna. It will go with Shelob with this vote.
++Shelob
Sorry, dear but better you than me/

[Meneltarmacil]

It had been decided that Shelob would be lynched toDay. The villagers gathered around the gallows as she was brought forward.

"But I don't even know most of you!" she protested. "I just happened to wash up here!"

"That's no excuse, Shelob," Saucepan countered. "Your arrival was followed closely by the first attack. That makes you our primary suspect."

"No it doesn't!" Nilpaurion Felagund blurted, climbing up to the gallows. "I'm a Wolf! I admit it! Lynch me!"

Nobody paid him any attention, shoving him aside. Instead, they hauled Shelob up to the gallows and put the noose around her neck.

However, when mormegil pulled the lever and dropped the trapdoor, causing Shelob to fall, there was no transformation as she died.

"Uh-oh," said morm, realizing the mistake. "Looks like she was innocent."


Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house.
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 13

It is now Night 3. Villagers, cease posting. Wolves may PM, Hunter and Ranger may not. I need names from the Wolves, Hunter, Ranger, and Seer.

By the way, I did count malka's vote for Kath.

[Meneltarmacil]

It was not long after the villagers had woken up that they noticed it.

A large pile of coconuts had appeared in the center of town overnight. Perplexed as to how it got there, the villagers discussed this recent phenomenon.

“Notice the interesting pyramidal shape of it?” Gil-Galad offered.

“It came from beyond the grave!” Kath exclaimed.

“”Don’t be silly, the Flying Spaghetti Monster clearly dropped it there,” Márcolië Lamen countered.

“The whales told me it was a gift from them,” said Naria.

Garin’s pigs, however, had already dug through the coconuts to find the body of poor Valier, who had giggled her last and had died standing on her head as the Wolves had tossed coconuts at her. All speculations stopped, as this was clearly the work of Wolves. Another innocent was dead.

Formendacil wrote all this down as usual, while malkatoj started searching the body for money.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 12

It is now Day 3. Villagers may post. Wolves, please cease PMing. Hunter and Ranger may PM each other now.

[the guy who be short]

Vote for / Vote by / Votes after (inclusive)
1. Malkatoj - Nilp (Malkatoj - 1)
2. Kath - malkatoj (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1)
3. Garin - Valier (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1)
4. Cailin - mormegil (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1)
5. Shelob - SpM (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 1)
6. Naria - TGWBS (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 1; Naria - 1)
7. Shelob - spawn (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1)
8. SpM - Formen (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 1; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1)
9. Garin - Cailin (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1)
10. Valier - Kath (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 1; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)
11. Cailin - Shelob (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 2; Shelob - 2; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)
12. Shelob - Garin (Malkatoj - 1; Kath - 1; Garin - 2; Cailin - 2; Shelob - 3; Naria - 1; SpM - 1; Valier - 1)

Did not vote Gil Galad, Glirdan, Marcolie Lamen, wayne, Naria



Analyses later. First, a few points.

Firstly, I would like to point out the huge number of non-voters. I, for one, would be more than pleased to kill them off if they don't start talking. As I said yesterday, we threaten to turn this into a battle of the loud and overlook those who are silent.

Secondly, I await a reply from mormegil re:Cailin.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I'm curious what you inferred from Cailin's points, when she said they spoke in my innocence.

Okay, two points then.

Coming soon, my thoughts on the lynching of Shelob and the death of Valier, as soon as I can organise some.

[Cailín]

Wow, Valier died. That is certainly… unexpected. She was not without suspicion and did not seem as much as a threat as some. I shall miss the silly (coco)nut, though.

Shall I point out something funny? Cailín voted exactly the same as Valier did for two days in a row. Valier more or less trusted her and she seemed to trust Valier. Could this kill possibly have been made to make her look good? Wait – is this a case against myself?

Or – was perhaps Valier targetted as the Seer? I can see no other clear reason: surely by the third Night, the wolves usually go looking for the Seer. That would put Garin in a rather negative light. Actually, he would stay in a rather negative light.

As of yet, I do not know. Five people failed to show up for voting yesterDay. It was a close call between me, Shelob and Garin. Two of these are definitely innocent. Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad. On first sight, we seem to be no closer to finding a wolf. Or at least, I am not.

Then I have some sad, real life news. Within half an hour, I’m going to bed. I will have to get up very early and spend the entire day fighting big guys with wooden swords. Yes, this is indeed true. I will not be able to return till about two hours before the deadline. I’m dreadfully sorry, but these things are practically obligatory and also quite a fun way to get extra credits. I hope you’ll manage without me. I’m sure you will.

[Farael]

Alright!!! If I'm not mistaken the time is up. Meneltarmacil should give you guys your little story in a few minutes. Good luck you all.

[Glirdan]

I thought the Day was supposed to be over? Hello? Mod Gods??

While we're waiting, I'd like to adress one thing:

originally posted by Garin
Morm, stop squabbling. Even if you are the cobbler you won't be taking any lives at night, the bickering will now turn to the G-boys and Kath and Spawn. I bid a farewell to Malkatoj and The Guy. If it wasn't for her sacrifice our insane village would've lynched another innoncent, I am sure.

I must ask you want do you mean by the G-Boys? I'm now innocent. If you have not been following everything, here's something to make it plain and clear to you: I AM THE HUNTER! You on the other hand are not cleared. So, really, the bickering will turn to you and Gil, not myself and Gil if that's what you were talking about.

Now, good Night friends.

[Meneltarmacil]

Thanks, Farael.

EDIT: I'm sorry about it being late. I did the best I could and told Farael to remind you of the times, etc. And I'm glad to see that he did so. Again, I apologize for the lateness.

The villagers cornered the guy who be short in his house by the sea where he kept his fishing gear and sold the catch of the day.

"You're coming with us, Wolf!" shouted malkatoj. "I know what you are."

"Heh heh," the guy responded, grinning. He then started to change shape. Fangs grew in his mouth as fur sprouted all over him. He grew a snout, claws, and a tail as well.

"Just try and lynch me! Come on!" the guy who be a wolf growled at the villagers. Some of them stepped back, but mormegil, Formendacil, and The Saucepan Man stood their ground. They started throwing various objects at him, including daggers, history books, and saucepans.

After a lot of clanging, banging, and other such noises The guy who be short was now the wolf who be lynched.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Formendacil- Village historian
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4
Naria (Werewolf): Fought to death by villagers and pigs on Day 4
Márcolië Lamen (Ordinary Villager): Cooked into spaghetti and eaten by wolves on Night 5
the guy who be short (Werewolf): Became the wolf who be lynched by villagers on Day 5

Wolves: 1
Villagers: 9

It is now Night 6. Seer and Wolf, please send me your names.

EDIT: Hunter too. Sorry I forgot to mention you

[Meneltarmacil]

KA-BOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!

The sound woke everybody up in the early hours of the morning. They rushed to investigate the noise.

The villagers soon found what was left of malkatoj’s house aflame. Moving inside, they passed what was left of several strange miracle devices (which according to Gil-Galad were originally in somekindofhedral shapes) that had apparently all been detonated at once. The entire room was in disarray.

At the back of the house lay the remains of malkatoj herself, who had been holding a strange crystal-glass contraption along with a book titled “Interpreting Visions: What every Seer Must Know.” Malka had indeed been the village Seer.

“Oh, my,” Kath remarked. “This is certainly a tragedy.”

“I guess there’s only one thing we can do for her now,” said Garin.

Seeing the look in his eye, Nilpaurion Felagund agreed. “It’s only fair,” he replied.

The villagers began searching the house for loose change.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Formendacil- Village historian
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4
Naria (Werewolf): Fought to death by villagers and pigs on Day 4
Márcolië Lamen (Ordinary Villager): Cooked into spaghetti and eaten by wolves on Night 5
the guy who be short (Werewolf): Became the wolf who be lynched by villagers on Day 5
malkatoj (Seer): Blown up by wolf on Night 6

Wolves: 1
Villagers: 8

It is now Day 6. Villagers may commence posting.

[The Saucepan Man]

We owe a great debt to malkatoj, who gave her life to save this village. Let us repay her by finishing the job for her.

Day 5 voting? Well it's traditional for me to give it, I suppose, even though it won't tell us much.

1. Malkatoj for TGWBS (TGWBS-1)
2. Nilpaurion for TGWBS (TGWBS-2)
3. Garin for TGWBS (TGWBS-3)
4. Formendacil for TGWBS (TGWBS-4)
5. TGWBS for mormegil (TGWBS-4, mormegil-1)
6. Mormegil for TGWBS (TGWBS-5, mormegil-1)
7. Glirdan for TGWBS (TGWBS-6, mormegil-1)
8. Dancing spawn for TGWBS (TGWBS-7, mormegil-1)
9. SpM for TGWBS (TGWBS-8, mormegil-1)
10. Gil-Galad for dancing spawn (TGWBS-8, mormegil-1, dancing spawn-1)

Did not vote: Kath

The only real point of discussion is Gil's vote, but my view on that is that it could go either way. He is either attempting a clever bluff, or he really didn't pay attention to what was happening yesterday. Gil is capable of either. Kath's non-vote (and non-appearance yesterday) doesn't tell us anything, as she warned beforehand that she would be out of town for the day (see the admin thread).

Reminder of what we know (Gil, take note ):

Hunter: Glirdan

Known not to be Wolves, but may be the Cobbler:
The Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund

Unknown:
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
Kath
Garin
Gil-Galad

If we were to make random choices, we would have a 1 in 4 chance of finding the Wolf today, a 1 in 3 chance tomorrow and a 50:50 chance the day after that. Only, by that time, there might well be two innocents facing a Wolf and a Cobbler. Village loses. And I am not sure that we have a much better chance if we use what has been said and done so far to guide us. Let's be honest. The remaining Wolf could be any one of the unknowns. We can use the record, to an extent. But I think that reasonable cases could be made for, and against, each one of them. Add to that a Cobbler and a Wolf desperately trying to lead us in astray and things are rather more desperate than Senor mormegil suggested yesterday.

So, I suggest that we try to organise a double lynching today and, if necessary, another one tomorrow. We then give ourselves (all else being equal) a 50:50 chance of finding a Wolf today. And, even if we are wrong, we have a 100% chance of killing the Wolf tomorrow. Assuming that we can avoid the tricksiness of the Cobbler and the remaining Wolf, that is. So we need to be careful in our organisation.

What say you all?

[Glirdan]

Well, even though Malka's death is tragic (our poor, beloved Seer is gone), we all did make some extra cash ( ).

As for SpM's suggested double lynching plan, I'm all for it because it then gives me a 50:50 chance of finding the Wolf if we don't get him/her toDay. As he said, all are equally suspicious, yet I find that Kath and Gil are probably the two we really ought to look at toDay. Those two have been in suspcion but not enough to cause to much trouble, which would complete (I believe) Marcolie's plan: quiet:Naria; loud:TGWBS and in between: Gil or Kath. However, that does not mean we need to wholly forget Garin and Spawn. I believe that Garin is either being a very smart Wolf by being extremely loud or just a very innocent villager. Spawn, on the other had, has flown under everyone's radar and hasn't attracted much suspicion until yesterDay. So, what do we do?