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Old 02-06-2006, 12:33 PM   #1
The Saucepan Man
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dancing spawn
Well, could one reason be that they all have posted toDay? It's much easier to talk about people who post than those who remain completely silent (or have posted only once or twice anyway).
Quite possibly so. Although my suspicions of Kath and Garin were originally aroused yesterday.

In any event, it is annoying that more people have not contributed so far today, as I must vote now or not vote at all.

We have three votes cast. One for malkatoj, which pre-dates her initial vote for Aiwendil, and which I suspect few if any will follow (unless they really do think it was a feindish bluff). And (assuming that malkatoj's second vote stands) one each for two of those who are, as matters stand, today's main suspects. In other words, the voting currently stands as follows:

Nilp for malkatoj
malkatoj for Kath
Valier for Garin

Well, I will place my vote for the third of those who have come under particular suspicion today.

++SHELOB

I outlined the reasons for my suspicion of her earlier. To summarise, she seems to be trying to be present without committing herself too much - to be contributing without saying anything useful - which seems out of character to me. And I am somewhat swayed by the fact that others (who I currently have no particular reason to suspect) feel the same way. I elected to vote for Shelob, rather than Kath, Glirdan or Garin (my other main suspects at the moment) because I don't have enough to go on as far as Glirdan is concerned and, assuming that malkatoj's vote for Kath is valid, I think that it remains sensible to keep the voting field as wide as possible. I would counsel those who follow in casting their votes to bear that last point in mind.

Edit: Cross-posted with mormegil.
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Old 02-06-2006, 12:48 PM   #2
Cailín
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Quote:
Nilp attracted three votes yesterday (his own, Abercrombie's and Naria's).
Ack! I'm sorry. I knew that and yet somehow I typed something completely different. My brains must be um... well... something bad.

Quote:
Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.
You give me more credit than I deserve, Mormegil. Anyway - I hope that if I survive toDay I may be able to convince you otherwise.

Quote:
Btw, did you notice, you did it again: you mentioned that you, too, find Shelob suspicious, but then left it at that and started analyzing TGWBS and Garin.
I was going to do Kath and Shelob, but ran out of time. It happens.
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Old 02-06-2006, 12:58 PM   #3
Cailín
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SHELOB

#23

Hopes for a miracle. Says she’ll wait to see how things develop.

#67

Does not understand the votes for Valier. Sees a little reasoning behind voting for Abercrombie, but does not seriously believe her guilty. Garin unsettles her.

#71

Does not wish to vote for Abercrombie nor Valier. Votes Garin.

#91

Thinks Aiwendil’s death was meant to confuse us.

#96

Disagrees with Saucy concerning the triangle thing.

--

It seems the only reason I have for suspecting Shelob is that she is not contributing as much as we’re used to. She has only suspected Garin, a safe suspect if he’s innocent, and was reluctant to be the cause of the death of an innocent yesterDay. Not sure what to make of her, there’s too little evidence.

And Spawn, I'm not doing this because I think you are incapable. I'm doing this because I don't trust you.
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Old 02-06-2006, 01:28 PM   #4
dancing spawn of ungoliant
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Well, well, Wayne, Naria and Formendacil haven't come to talk with us toDay at all, and Gil and Glirdan have posted only once.

The votes are:

Nilp -> malkatoj
malkatoj -> Kath
Valier -> Garin
mormegil -> Cailín
Sauce -> Shelob
TGWBS -> Naria

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpM
I think that it remains sensible to keep the voting field as wide as possible.
I agree. However, now we have six lynching candidates and all of my suspects already are on the list. There's no reason for me to randomly add someone completely different on the list, and I can't wait any longer with my vote. Therefore:

++SHELOB

Best of luck to you, dear innocents!
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Old 02-06-2006, 01:04 PM   #5
the guy who be short
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Apologies to people who have mentioned my quietness - College, then circumstances.

But, here are some promised analyses:

Death of Abercrombie

1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. Waynethe Goblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

(Thank you SpM - I stole yours, as it was presented much more prettily.)

What's noticable? The Abercrombie bandwagon started late - and that's odd. SpM was the first to vote for her, and there seemed little chance of her being lynched then. A "safe" vote, but I don't think this incriminating, partially because I'm inclined to trust SpM, and partly because, with voting so spread out, almost all votes could be considered "safe" early on.

The second vote was from me, bringing Abercrombie up to two votes - the highest the other candidates had at the time too. This, also, I don't consider "safe" - if anything, I consider it the opposite, as it brought Abercrombie into the list of potentially lynchable people.

Spawn was the next to vote. I'm not sure what to make of her. This was when Valier also had three votes, again tying. Without knowing Valier's identity, we can't infer anything.

Aiwendil voted next - and died in the night. I'm not sure what to make of this - hopefully I will have time for an analysis of Aiwendil's words and potential reasons he was killed, but that will be next post, if at all. What relevance it has here, I'm not sure.

Finally, Kath's vote for Abercrombie. Not wolvish at all. Just look at the numbers involved when she voted - it was an incriminating, non-wolf thing to do.

So, I must say, I feel that all those voting for Abercrombie were innocent. This is not only because I was in the group - it seemed like a rational thing to do, at the time, and while I regret her innocence, I believed it to be logical.

There are claims that Aiwendil's death may have been calculated to take the spotlight off those who voted for him. I don't support this - I think it put more emphasis and more mystery around those voting for Abercrombie.
But then, perhaps I simply feel so as I am in that group of voters...

As for who I feel could be guilty, that comes...
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Old 02-06-2006, 01:17 PM   #6
the guy who be short
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Who's guilty?

Looking at the voting record (above) several names stand out. These are the seriously "safe" votes, votes unlikely to affect the outcome, apathetic votes that show little interest in divining innocence. In short, condemnable votes.

In order, then:

14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

These are the real no votes. Shelob bringing Garin into play - fair enough if you don't believe Valier or Abercrombie to be guilty, but what about Nilp, Wayne, Formen? No feelings?

Glirdan for SpM - the same applies!

Naria for Nilp - idiocy. Voting for Nilp was not only pointless, it was detrimental to the village. There is no reason to vote for him in normal circumstances.

I would gladly vote for any of the three, but as it is, time runs short.


At present we have a vote for malka, a vote for Kath, a vote for Garin, a vore for Cailin and a vote for Shelob.

Though I suspect Shelob too, I think I'll go for Naria to give a wide range of possibilities for those still to vote, making it harder for wolves to hide. And I did warn those who vote for Nilp... (About that by the way - intuition, nothing more, Nilp. You're just a nutter who likes dying, and I get annoyed when people help you - it isn't good for the village. If you actually are a wolf, I'll faint).

++NARIA
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Old 02-06-2006, 01:22 PM   #7
the guy who be short
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I don't have time to analyse Aiwendil, sorry. I started, but found little info either way.

Vote wisely, and, most likely, farewell until the morrow.
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Old 02-06-2006, 01:30 PM   #8
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You're naught but ninnyhammers, the lot of you!

Seriously, I don't hold with all this lynchermongery that's going on around here... I see nary a sane plan in sight, and certainly none that wears well enough to attract my agreement. Clearly, though, we're going to need some rope...

I suggest you all go back to cabbages and potatoes. Don't get mixed up in the business of your betters, or you'll land in trouble too big for you.

No, I can't give no insight. Haven't thought so far, myself; you're all queer folk, though. No, I can't rouse the energy and do it. Good night!

++ The Saucepan Man, for trying to take control.

All's well that ends better.
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Old 02-06-2006, 01:50 PM   #9
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Formendacil is appearing strangely cobbleresque. Doesn't make him a wolf but it does make him somebody we ought to eliminate if we don't know who else to vote for.

Now while I still suspect Cailin she did bring up some good points in her analysis of TGWBS but then TGWBS brought up decent points about Naria. So I guess what I'm saying is that while I'm confused it's likely that a wolf is in this small group of three.
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Old 02-06-2006, 02:02 PM   #10
Cailín
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Nilp -> malkatoj
malkatoj -> Kath
Valier -> Garin
mormegil -> Cailín
Sauce -> Shelob
TGWBS -> Naria
Spawn -> Shelob
Formendacil -> Saucepan Man

Well, Formendacil is acting strange.

++GARIN

He remains my main suspect of the Day. For reasons, see my analysis on him. It's here somewhere.

Edit: cross-posted with Marcolie.
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Old 02-06-2006, 02:02 PM   #11
Márcolië Lamen
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Because I may have little time, I'm going to start by listing those I seem most guilty and general reasons. If I end up with time I'll go through either post by post or at least analysing and quoting specific things. I hope I have the time to do that.

Villagers
Cailín-seems to be the one who's steering others thoughts most noticably now along with SpM, which is a very wolvish thing to do. However, because it is so early in the game, this is either a much safer, or much more dangerous position to be in if a wolf. I suspect Calin but she's not currently my top suspicion because it's almost too bold at this point to me, depending on the group.
Nilpaurion Felagund A suicidal one is always odd. Don't know anything about Nilp now. Suspicious only for living.
The Saucepan Man is one who is suspicious because of the strength at playing. I really don't know now at all how to look at SpM
Malkatoj...that was one strange vote. I doubt it was a wolvish bluff, mainly because its so out there. We can't just forget about it, but I'm more reclined to focus efforts elseware.
Gil-Galad has given little to workwith like always. Toss of the dice as to where he stands. I really don't know.
Glirdan in my mind someone being used to change where we're looking from last night. I don't think Glirdan is guilty, because of that.
Marcolie Lamen What can I say about myself? I wasn't here yesterday, and haven't said much, because of time constrants on my part, and its not like I'd look at myself as guilty.
WaynetheGoblin similarly to Gil-Galad someone who says very little and gives us nothing to go by. The first posts were uncharactaristically long though. I'd personally vote for Wayne over Gil-Galad because of this.
Naria collecting votes. I would agree that Naria looks suspicous at the time, because of voting yesterday, and quietness.
Valier in a similar position to Naria. They're so quiet they'd not tell us very much. Three votes for her yesterday.
Formendacil has been quiet but gave reasons. Not suspicious for this, so low on my suspision list.
Kath- an active name today early on, but recently dying down. Kath isn't the highest on my suspision, but can't be trusted either.
Shelob uncharacteristically quiet, in terms of giving little information. I cannot analyze and take out suspision on Shelob because in attempting to I'd alter how I was thinking. I'm too trusting of her to play werewolf against her. I'll read and comment on other peoples examinations, but I cannot make my own. Explaining this mainly because its a strange situation.
TGWBS has been vocal, but not overly so. Was looking at so-called throw away votes recently, which has a point, but which its hard for me to agree on after one day. Suspicious because seems to be in a very easily hid position.
Garin ever since I started reading this something hasn't sat right with me on Garin. I don't know exactly why, but because of this Garin has top suspicousness in my mind. However, looking at yesterday and those he'd vote for makes him even more suspicious. He talks about three and votes for one though not seeminly for a reason. I would probably be less suspicious of Garin if the vote had been for me. Also seems very easily swayable by SpM and morm
Dancing Spawn has been a very helpful poster with summaries. Not too guilty at the moment, but in a position where it'd be really easy to switch over.
Mormegil- Its scary to have Morm and SpM agreeing. Its like something has to be up. I seriously doubt both of them are wolves though.

If I was to vote now it'd be for Garin, but I have time, so lets see what happens between now and then.
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