Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[mormegil]

I think I know why we, the loudmouths, are still alive. It's because if they killed off the handful of us that talk a lot this village would be silent!!!

I think I shall stick with Cailin today. My observation earlier has solidified in my mind and I can see now her wolfish influence taking root in our councils. My suspision of others still holds and will continue on but currently there seems to be a lack of action so I will go against my wont and vote early, meaning before the final hour.

A personal side note. Tomorrow I may be going for those who are perpetually silent and haven't contributed much to our village. At a certain point they will need to be cleared out to remove some of the confusion and ambiguity. So I will start with the most guilty looking quiet one and move on. Probably Formen right now...I just don't understand him at all.

++Cailin

[Gil-Galad]

alright i sneaked back on


to explain my actions, i assume that wayne is a wolf and is maybe trying to bluff us, if he seems suicidal, it saves him because we are just thinking that hes just being weird, but i beleive hes a wolf trying to sneak by us by fooling us

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

We don't have anything concrete on either [Wayne] or Gil ...

As it happens, I agree with that. They are acting strangely, but they always do. There's really not much to go on at all. Having said that, we are getting to the stage (or at least I am) where a vote for one of them is possibly on the cards on the basis that I have little else to go on and I would rather be rid of them than some others here. Neither are helping much and I don't believe either of them to be Gifted.

I still believe malkatoj innocent (though misguided). It is possible that she was pulling an elaborate bluff with her vote for Aiwendil and her subsequent admission that she typed his name by mistake instead of Kath, whom she says that meant to vote for. It is also possible that Aiwendil's name had stuck in her mind, having been involved in his murder the night before and that it was a genuine mistake by a Wolf. But I think both of those scenarios unlikely and therefore will not (in the absence of something more) be voting for her today.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

That leaves me with SpM. Not because he was the lead people to bandwagon, because he was the first to vote for both Shelob and Crombie (bandwaggoning not his fault) ...

Come now, that is poor logic Glirdan. If you are voting on the basis of the "bandwaggons" against Abercrombie and Shelob, yet you accept that I did not intentionally start them, you should be looking to those riding in the waggons, not the one who cast the first vote. Besides, the votes against Shelob can hardly be described as a bandwaggon. She died on the basis of three votes. Had more people turned up to vote (yourself included ), things might have turned out differently.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

... and I think that he's been a little over defensive in his last few posts

Ah, that old chestnut. Can you blame me, given some of the reasons that have been put forward in accusation of me? And really, I was feeling more angry than defensive. Although I stand by what I said.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Not to mention something is still not sitting right.

I wish you would explain this. If you are referring to my Day 1 approach (which is when your suspicions of me started), that was a combination of role-play and an attempt to stir things up. I would be interested to know just what isn't sitting right about me with you.

Funnily enough, my suspicions of Glirdan have actually lessened today. I don't like his reasons for voting for me, but they do seem to me to be the kind of standard reasons that an innocent with very little to go on would put forward to justify a vote.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I cannot for the life of me understand the current suspicion towards SpM. I see nothing in him that makes me think he is a wolf. I think there is wolfish influence here and it makes me look at Glirdan, again, and Malka.

Thank you mormegil. For what it's worth, I can see nothing suspicious about you either. Most of what you have said has struck a chord with me, or at least seemed sensible. I will no doubt be accused, for saying that, of trying to attach myself to someone who is under little suspicion at the moment, but so be it. I know that you, at least, do have a mind of your own.

As for the current briefings against me, I did expect myself to be under some suspicion today. Indeed, selfishly, I was quite glad of it at the end of Day 2 as I thought that it might prevent me from being killed overnight. But I did not expect it to be expressed quite so strongly. I agree that there may be a Wolfish influence here. My problem is that I am inclined to think that both of those who have voted for me so far are innocent. I have been looking back to try to establish where this all began. Glirdan and, to al lesser extent, malkatoj, have expressed doubts about me all along. Other than them, the only ones who have referred to the likelihood of me being suspected today are Cailin and TBWBS:

Originally Posted by Cailin in post #151

Dancing Spawn and Saucepan Man... twice you now voted for the innocent who was lynched at the end of the Day. This is no accusation - more people have voted for two innocents and indeed it is more subtle to not be on the 'winning' bandwagon. However, like me probably, you have a tendency to be in full control of the game. These outcomes show that. I hope you are aware that, if things go the wrong way, people will start blaming you. And I hope these people are aware that they will. This is really just a plea for people to make up their own minds.

Originally Posted by TGWBS in post #153

That said, Glirdan and Cailin, you have both raised interesting points about SpM. Twice in a row, he has cast the first vote for an innocent. Perhaps he is simply cursed with too much authority - people follow him too much, and the votes he casts influence others too much, incriminating him. I recall that his Abercrombie vote was particularly late.

Both might be viewed as attempts to reinforce the inevitable suspicion of me in an oblique manner, without making any direct accusation. Of the two, I find TGWBS the most trustworthy. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder about Cailin. Which brings me to this:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Regarding Cailin I think I've put my finger on it. She's come forward with some decent ideas and seems to slowly be pulling here and pushing there. Slowly and quietly she is trying to influence us. Not as overtly as many think SpM is but more dangerously. She hasn't really committed herself to any one thing but seems to want to influence us and sow the seeds of confusion.

Funny how you and I keep thinking along the same lines. I was beginning to think along the same lines when I reviewed today’s posts before taking my midday nap (ie going to sleep for the RL night). She did the same, to an extent, yesterday with Shelob. She was the first to note that Shelob’s Day 1 vote could be seen as a safe Wolfish vote, although to be fair this was a matter of timing. I had noticed the same thing myself before reading her thoughts. But she maintained her suspicion of Shelob for most of the Day before going on to dismiss it when the case against Shelob began to gather speed. Perhaps she is trying the same tactic, in an even more subtle manner, with me today. But I agree that she is intelligent (and therefore potentially cunning) and capable of great subtlety, if a Wolf. I do now have some concern over her.

Originally Posted by Nilp

First, I'll say that I'm convinced The Saucepan Man is innocent (although the manner of presentation is a bit unimaginative .)

Glad that you caught it. I could not resist. I feel the same way about you, incidentally. And, if anyone wants to know why Nilp and I trust each other, read our more non-sensical posts more carefully.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

No, he couldn't. He takes being a Wolf too seriously for that.

I am inclined to believe that. You may still be the Cobbler, but I don’t believe you to be a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Therefore, if the Saucepan Man is infact the Saucepan Wolf what else could he do but play as he always has- lest the villagers sense the change and lynch him?

A fair point, although the same applies if I am innocent. Sad though it may seem, I really only know one way to play this game.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

But I agree that there are completely valid reason for looking closer at the Saucepan Man.

Yes. Please do look closer. In particular, try to look further than my traditional style and my unfortunate voting pattern (in which others undoubtedly share, whether that be known by now or not).

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

Sorry about the rant, but I mean what I said.

I really see very little reason for worry as far as dancing spawn is concerned. Of course, she, like me, has voted for two known innocents. But I prefer to look at the whole picture. Despite those votes, she seems to me to be talking nothing but good sense.

Originally Posted by Nilp

I now strongly believe that the intention of the Werewolves in killing noncommitting Aiwendil and semi-silent Valier is to force a lynching of the loudmouths during the DAY. It's elegant, perhaps a bit farfetched, but there are already two votes for the only loudmouth I trust so far. Wow.

I mean, all of us here have played at least one Werewolf game. We're all experienced here. We know the game. People notice the loudmouths more than the others, especially wrong loudmouths. Now, with a lack of trail from the Werewolves's kills, who do we look at? Yeah, that's right, the loud ones. As I said, elegant.

This makes a lot of sense to me.

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

I'd believe that the wolves don't care who will be lynched as long it won't be one of their own. Voting for an innocent can make one look really bad, but really, what does it tell? Ordinary villagers don't know who the wolves are, so the odds are that they will make a mistake and vote for a fellow innocent. However, the wolves are very well informed who's guilty and who's not, and because voting for someone whose role will be revealed at the end of a Day is risky since those voters are bound to get some attention the next Day, it would be wise to stay out of that and vote for someone else - even a fellow wolf.

And so does this.

So where does that leave me? My concern about Cailin is growing. I can see myself voting for her today. I would also not be averse to the idea of lynching Wayne or Gil-Galad, or even Formendacil, for their unhelpful contributions and will not hesitate to do so if it is me or one of them. And I could also countenance lynching any of the others who are singularly failing to contribute to our discussions. Yes, that means you Naria and Marcolie. While it goes somewhat against what I said at the beginning, given the way things have gone so far in this village, I would rather get rid of one of them that risk lynching a Gifted or a more helpful villager. My only concern is that one of them could just be a Gifted (although they are doing a good job of hiding it if they are).

And where is Kath today? I am coming round to the view of her being innocent and, as such, would welcome her contribution to the debate.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

to explain my actions, i assume that wayne is a wolf and is maybe trying to bluff us, if he seems suicidal, it saves him because we are just thinking that hes just being weird, but i beleive hes a wolf trying to sneak by us by fooling us

OK, I take up some (only some) of what I said about Gil being unhelpful. This echoes something that Glirdan said earler. And the more I think about it, the stranger I find it that Wayne voted for himself. It seems out of character. Doesn't he normally get rather upset about being lynched? I can see a Wolfish Wayne deciding that voting for himself might get him off the hook.

So, as matters stand, I have pretty much narrowed down my vote for today to Wayne and Cailin. Which is quite good for me really. I will vote to save myself if I have to, unless it involves voting for someone who I think is innocent and useful or who might be Gifted, as (my contribution to date notwithstanding) I do believe that I can still be of some use to this village. And if I do have to vote to save myself, I would rather do do by voting for someone whom I strongly suspect than for someone who I have little clue about or someone that I think innocent but unhelpful.

Only problem is, it is unlikely that both cailin and Wayne are Wolves - unless Cailin was trying to pull off a very bold strategy on Day 1. Hence, even if I was attracted by the double-lynch idea (which I am not, as it happens), I would not counsel double-lynching these two.