Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

*deep breath*

Form is useless in this game so far. Even if he's innocent (which I rather doubt), Darwin may justify us in killing him.

Glirdan has attacked Sauce not once, but twice--Form, too, I forgot, attacked the poor lawman twice. Of course, his DAY 1 vote may be seen as a safe one, since it has no chance of taking power. But still . . .

malka's mistaken vote for Aiwendil yesterDAY . . . hmmm . . . Well, I did almost vote for players that didn't actually join in the last game, so . . . I don't know. Still not entirely innocent, to me. Less so, since she's attacking an innocent. But she is safe from me toDAY.

Well, Cailín:

This is no accusation - more people have voted for two innocents and indeed it is more subtle to not be on the 'winning' bandwagon. However, like me probably, you have a tendency to be in full control of the game. These outcomes show that. I hope you are aware that, if things go the wrong way, people will start blaming you. And I hope these people are aware that they will. This is really just a plea for people to make up their own minds. (Cailín)

Things are going the wrong way, with two innocents lynched. That's why people are blaming the 'Pied Piper.' But . . . this is the first mention of this whole 'bandwaggon leader Sauce', right? Hmmm . . . considering the effects of her words, as mormegil said, this is pretty subtle manipulation. Creepy. 'This is no accusation,' indeed.

Now, daga'y:

That said, Glirdan and Cailin, you have both raised interesting points about SpM. Twice in a row, he has cast the first vote for an innocent. Perhaps he is simply cursed with too much authority - people follow him too much, and the votes he casts influence others too much, incriminating him. I recall that his Abercrombie vote was particularly late. (he is short)

This seems innocent to me, sorry. Not because he's been defending me, but because it casts no accusation, unless its aim is to put into the minds of the others--the ones easily manipulated into doing bandwaggons, may I add--that this metal-clad chap killed two of their fellows. Or perhaps I'm putting words where they are not.

To be dramatic, these three, Cailín, Glirdan, and Form, might form a firestorm that would consume Sauce--and probably the rest of the loudmouths. I'm for lynching one of them.

Well, since Cailín already had a vote, a vote for her would seem most useful at the moment.

++Cailín

(Vzv, Sauce, if you're a Werewolf, I will personally select a poisoned arrow, and personally paradrop on your workplace to personally shoot you in the heart. )

[the guy who be short]

All this suspicion suddenly piled onto Cailin is somewhat astounding, as I hadn't really thought much about her before - and that's always a bad sign.

But before I go on and investigate for myself her possible lycanthropy, I have previous points to bring up.

At the moment, I am most in favour of lynching Glirdan. He gives no reasoning for his lack of logic, and very little rational reasoning for casting suspicion on SpM, his odd feelings notwithstanding, of course.

The two others I'm closely watching at the moment are wayne and Gil. Of these two, I find Gil most worrying.

Wayne's suicide attempted could be viewed in many ways, and I don't know which to opt for. It's strange, as his name had really been mentioned very little beforehand. Perhaps a wolf feeling the pressure and trying to pull a Nilp. But perhaps simply a lost innocent. To be completely honest, I don't know at the moment, both ideas seem likely.

But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

What I find interesting is that I mentioned looking into the quieter villagers, and suddenly this happens.


Now, off for a look at Cailin.

[the guy who be short]

Vote for / Vote by / Votes thereafter

1. Wayne - Wayne (Wayne - 1)
2. Wayne - Gil (Wayne - 2)
3. SpM - Malka (Wayne - 2, SpM - 1)
4. SpM - Glirdan (Wayne - 2, SpM - 1)
5. Cailin - morm (Wayne - 2; SpM - 2; Cailin - 1)
6. Cailin - Nilp (Wayne - 2; SpM - 2; Cailin - 2)

[malkatoj]

I'd like to mention (again) that my vote was CROSS-POSTED with SpM's long rant/defense.

Spawn: Anyone who votes Sauce because of "swaying" looks pretty bad in my eyes now.

It's not just the swaying-it's who the votes are for, too, plus his general attitude. He seems wolfish, and if it's just his normal personality, I would have no way of knowing.

Glirdan: malka - Finds it wierd that Wayne is pulling a Nilp and thinks that Gil's voter for him is even more odd. Wants to point out that, even though she doesn't believe that SpM is a Wolf, he was the one who started the Shelob and Crombie bandwagons. Agrees that we should double lynch, SpM and Wayne preferably. Votes for Saucy because he led the bandwaggoning.

I don't know what I said, but I *meant* that it doesn't necessarily make him a wolf. It seems likely. And I guess I changed my mind about the best candidate for lynching between the post and the vote.

[Garin]

Cailin,
You sound sad and angry, indeed.
I apologize if seem to get too personal, I am just reacting to someone who wished me dead. This is why I tried to keep my mouth shut this game, I forget how young and sensitive some of the Downs members are. Anyways, best of luck to you. I plan to keep to my pledge not to post a retribution vote and hope there is not a double lynch in the making.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man

While I support the majority of those, Cailin, I would like to ask why you consider Glirdan to be innocent, taking into account the points I have made against him earlier today.

For myself, I see the werewolves as mormegil, Glirdan, and either Garin or a quiet villager such as wayne, Gil or Marco.

[Cailín]

While I support the majority of those, Cailin, I would like to ask why you consider Glirdan to be innocent, taking into account the points I have made against him earlier today.

Do you want a long analysis or the honest truth? Because of lack of time, I shall settle for the second.

1) You made some valid points against Glirdan. HOWEVER I know Glirdan to be a rather fickle player and not always mindful of each and every word.

2) I believe him.

3) He thinks me innocent. Reasonable or not, this definitely helps.

4) I would never in a million years believe Wolf-Glirdan to be brave enough to go up against the Saucepan Man

5) He made a good impression on me on Day 1 - despite his odd vote - and I believe he merely got himself in to trouble trying to explain that vote.

That is all I am afraid.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

3) He thinks me innocent. Reasonable or not, this definitely helps.

This may be a bit pedantic but come on doesn't this appear wolfish to anybody else? You want to keep him around because he thinks you're innocent?

This does not appear be innocent to me at all!

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I heavily criticised this comment from mormegil:

I thought I had answered this for you my friend but I will explain it again, perhaps more succinctly. What I found in her post was a summary of your posts and therein I found it odd the amount of posts you had given but the low quality of what had been said. Up to that point you really hadn't given much by way of helpful comments. Having said that I am currently inclined to call you one of the more helpful villagers albeit misguided. You are undertaking lenghtly and insightful analysis which is generally helpful. I also commented, if you remember, that since I had posted that I noted the change in your behavior which seems good but could be construed as suspicious. For you are responding or reacting, if you will, to what I criticized in your behavior.

Let me explain more clearly, I saw you moderately suspicious because you weren't analyzing anything but speaking a lot. As a wolf TGWBS you saw that and thought 'oh I better change that so they don't continue to notice it'. Now there is the more benign stance that you simply didn't have much time the first day or two but have since been able to dedicate yourself more fully. I believe the latter but will not forget the potential of first possibility as well.

What I do find interesting is why you are so adamant to defend Cailin? You've associated yourself with her and if, as I believe, turns out to be a wolf you will be incriminated. And that is fine if you are a wolf, but if you are not I beg you to not do so as it will cause an innocent death.

Conclusion: While not fully sure I find TGWBS most likely innocent and that he's being very helpful if somewhat misguided.

My suspicions of Cailin I have posted and stand behind them. She's had a fairly innocuous track record on voting and what she says is moderately insightful but noncommittal. This is behavior I would anticipate seeing in a wolf. This is why I went for her. I've kept Glirdan and others on my radar but she is really sticking out to me. Plus as I've said ever since day 1 she didn't sit right with me. I also stated that on day 1 so you accuse me of following up on what I proposed? That seems a bit off the mark to me. I would rather have somebody declare their intentions and stick to it if they find it justified than not.

[Kath]

I'm here SpM! Though this will only be a short visit I will be back later when I have a nice stretch of time to go through everything.

However since I am here for a few moments I would like to just say a couple of thing.

Glirdan (I think) you can't accuse SpM of beginning a bandwagon. That doesn't work. The first person to vote can't be bandwagonning!

Gil and Wayne's votes coming so close together is odd. Wayne could be trying to pull a Nilp (and seemingly succeeding, as I don't think anyone but Gil has voted for him?) but then do we consider him innocent as we do Nilp right now or do we consider him guilty and trying to bluff his way out of suspicion. The latter would seem odd as he hasn't been under much but it is possible.

morm - I'm not keen on double lynches. Yes they can be necessary but simply to take out quiet villagers? I know part of what you said was just to make a point but I'd rather give people a chance rather than lynch them straight off (and yes that's partly because I've been pretty quiet!).

That's about it except for one plea. Please can we not argue between ourselves too much? Querying the actions of person is fair enough, it must be done, but do it without acting as though you will suspect this person for all time unless they answer your questions immediately and absolutely. And repliers, don't assume that you're under suspicion and react angrily - it's hard, I know, but we have to keep calm! Fighting between ourselves only serves to give the wolves a good laugh.

Back in a few hours.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Vzv, Sauce, if you're a Werewolf, I will personally select a poisoned arrow, and personally paradrop on your workplace to personally shoot you in the heart.

... and you would be thoroughly justified in doing so. Rest assured, though, you won't be put to the trouble.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

All this suspicion suddenly piled onto Cailin is somewhat astounding, as I hadn't really thought much about her before - and that's always a bad sign.

To be fair, she did attract two votes yesterday - only one less than the day's lynchee. One from mormegil, who has been pretty consistent in his suspicion of her and one from Shelob, who we now know was innocent (although that, of course, does not mean that she could not have been mistaken). And, if I recall correctly, dancing spawn had her suspicions of Cailin yesterday too.

My own suspicion of Cailin is a relatively new development. It started when I tried to work out why I had suddenly become such a strong suspect in the early discussions of today. Like Nilp, I didn't like the way that Cailin put the case against me, while claiming not to be making an accusation. When I looked back, it seemed to me that she had done much the same thing yesterday with regard to Shelob, while ultimately extricating herself from involvement in the lynching of an innocent. Mormegil's comments today on her therefore struck a chord with me. Although I would emphasise that I am not being swayed by him - I had separately reached the same conclusion.

Hmm, I must vote soon if I am to vote at all today. I have seen nothing to deter me from casting my vote for either Wayne or Cailin. And I am more inclined to vote for Cailin since Wayne, while acting strangely, is unpredictable by his very nature.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

I see what you are saying, but (except perhaps at the beginning of Day 1) Gil has not really been under determined suspicion so far and so a Wolfish Gil would have no particular reason at this stage to take overt steps to deflect the votes away from him. And I can't really condemn him for suspecting Wayne because of Wayne's self-vote because I suspect Wayne for much the same reason.

And finally (for now) ...

Originally Posted by Kath

And repliers, don't assume that you're under suspicion and react angrily ...

I didn't react angrily because I assumed that I was under suspicion. I reacted angrily because I was under suspicion - and for pretty silly reasons in my opinion. But I am much calmer now. Thank you.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Mormegil, I get what you were trying to say yesterDay now. And obviously, I even agreed with you, at least, said the same thing using different words. However, I find it quite hypocritical that you first accuse Malka and me because we were ‘going for the easy kill’ (I’m not quite sure what that means anyway – surely you would never find killing easy?) and then you state you wish the weirdos out of the way first, too. I’m not saying I would vote for you because of this, but I rather demand an explanation, because by targeting Malka and me you might also have been going for easy kills (and voting for Valier does not make you appear any less guilty).

Her first comment on Day 2 is an attack on morm for hypocrisy.

Originally Posted by morm

I don't know why but something about Cailin isn't sitting right with me and I think I will watch her closely too.

Good reasoning. And here we seen morm's knee-jerk reaction, without even the pretence of an explanation.

Originally Posted by Cailin

I accept Mormegil might have just voted for Valier to get things going, but Garin put Valier clearly in the lead again. Something about Garin is making me nervous anyway – he seems uncharacteristically quiet and eager to hide behind theories proposed by others.

This is Cailin's post that allegedly influenced that lynching of Shelob:

Shelob's vote for Garin stands out and so does Glirdan’s vote for SpM, but not in a way that makes me immediately think them wolvish.

That is what a lot of the suspicions seem to be based on. Tens of these comments are made all the time by all villagers. This, in my eyes, hardly points to her guilt.

Originally Posted by malka

Since I doubt all three of those people are wolves, I'd like to point out Shelob's vote (if it hasn't been done already, I've looked over everything but might have missed it). Since she's the only one who voted Garin, it's not getting a lot of attention--we tend to pay more attention to the bandwagons, and I've no doubt she knows this. Her vote is pretty safe in that, as I said above, Garin is pretty much an unknown, and there was no chance of his being killed so it went under everyone's radar. I'm not completely convinced that she's a wolf, but it seems very possible (and, considering past games and the fact that she's alive, likely).

Here's something making me reconsider her innocence. Cailin was the first to mention Shelob's vote, then SpM did so, but this is the first real accusation.

Cailin also claims she is "genuinly concerning about" these:

Kath
Shelob
TGWBS
Garin

Of whom Garin is a fierce critic of her.

Furthermore, she expressed sincere doubt of morm.




My analysis stops there. All I find is more and more evidence pointing at morm. He has it in for Cailin. And it is plain that her mention of Shelob is hardly worth mentioning as a serious influence in lynching her.

Morm has constantly sought to attack Cailin, for two days, with little explanation.

Originally Posted by morm

I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned. Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.

No reasoning on Day 2. Just a vote. Why does morm have it in for Cailin? This, by the way, is the first example I can find of Cailin's alleged thought-steering.

I heavily criticised this comment from mormegil:

Originally Posted by morm

Now while I still suspect Cailin she did bring up some good points in her analysis of TGWBS

To which he replied:

Originally Posted by morm

TGWBSis pestering me, all game seemingly, for responses to any and all queries he may have. What I found from Cailin's post is that up to that point you had been vocal and yet contributed little.

The thing is, in my search, I could find no reference to this whatsoever. Cailin originally declares she's unsure of my innocence as you can never trust me, then goes on to say she believes in my innocence due to my posting record. The entire thing seems fabricated to me.

I know I was meant to analyse Cailin, but it has really led me off on a tangent and an attack of morm. He consistently accuses her with little evidence, and is behind the entire bandwagon at the moment when there is nothing pointing at her guilt, in my eyes. His fabrications are further reason to suspect him.

Enough so that I will abandon my pursuit of Glirdan and vote

++MORMEGIL

In the hope that others follow my example.



Though it wont look it, this will probably be a crosspost with many people. The last post I can see is SpM's at 5:26. The internet is playing up and I can't refresh the page to see what else may have popped up. Sorry.

[Garin]

Posted by TGWBS: Of whom Garin is a fierce critic of her. (Re: Cailin)

Um, she started it. Plus, I'm not that fierce, she has me beat in that category.

[Cailín]

You are all fools. Pretty much.

(And indeed Garin - I am a little angry. Just because I am always lynched as an innocent and people say I am so 'cunning', while the only time I was a wolf, I did not survive past Day 1. However, I am not sure whether I deserve all your comments and would like to ask you -seriously- to stop making this so personal. For me, it is not. I love the game and can get really into it. I'm sorry if I hurt you.)

I came back a little early... and see Mormegil has managed to convince almost the entire village of my intelligence, wisdom and cunningness. Wow. Thanks. Though actually, sir, I think you far more deserve such descriptions. And though I feel I might be a little prejudiced, since I have been your target for a while... I cannot help but feel that TGWBS might have a point.

I think I now have a fair idea who is who in this village, and yet am afraid to speak up. Whatever I say right now, it seems like it will never be enough. If I act aggressively, Garin will be convinced I am guilty. If I don't say anything, I am sneaky and manipulative.

Mormegil, I think you are a wolf. I think Garin is either also a wolf or just rather blind. I think Spawn might be a wolf. And if she is not, then one of the quiet people. Wayne is possibly the Cobbler.

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man (?)

Hopefully I shall be back soon with a bit more.

[the guy who be short]

All quotes are from Cailin unless stated otherwise. This is only from Today. Yesterday shall be analysed as soon as possible.

The first thing I notice is a confused post, amidst which one finds this:

I will not be able to return till about two hours before the deadline.

All these people attacking her and voting early are conscious that she cannot return to defend herself for a long time.

All other accusations of Cailin seem to refer to Yesterday. I will have to go investigate what she said yesterday that is so incriminating. Thus far, her words seem logical enough to me.

I will analyse Cailin's actions on Day 2 upon my return, presumable in an hour.

[the guy who be short]

SpM - You raise some good points.

Originally Posted by SpM

I see what you are saying, but (except perhaps at the beginning of Day 1) Gil has not really been under determined suspicion so far and so a Wolfish Gil would have no particular reason at this stage to take overt steps to deflect the votes away from him. And I can't really condemn him for suspecting Wayne because of Wayne's self-vote because I suspect Wayne for much the same reason.

I, in turn, see what you are saying. But early today, I mentioned that we should lynch some quiet people, and Cailin agrees. Then Gil, who is numbered amongst the quiet, votes for wayne. I think it could easily be an attempt to shirk off perceived pressure onto wayne, who is also amongst the quiet lynching candidates I proposed.

SpM, what is your view on Glirdan? I recall you suspecting him earlier, but then moving on.

Finally, though I do not suspect SpM to be a wolf, a poem with subliminal messages does not make one innocent. I fail to see how expressing exasperation excludes SpM from suspicion of wolvery.


An analysis of Cailin on day 2, in an hour!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

SpM, what is your view on Glirdan? I recall you suspecting him earlier, but then moving on.

Yes, I did suspect Glirdan yesterday - for much the same reasons as you did. And he is by no means in the clear, as far as I am concerned. But my suspicions of him have lessened, largely because, while I see his reasons for voting for me as flawed, they strike me as the kind of reasons that a migusided innocent who has got his mind set on a particular person being guilty would say - see my post #195 for more detail.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Finally, though I do not suspect SpM to be a wolf, a poem with subliminal messages does not make one innocent. I fail to see how expressing exasperation excludes SpM from suspicion of wolvery.

I don't ask, and wouldn't expect, to be excluded from consideration. But I would prefer that people consider the evidence and, if they decide to vote for me, do so with good reason, rather than because they think people do not have enough intiative to think for themseves or because something "isn't sitting quite right".

Aargh! The time has come for me to vote as I won't be back for the rest of the day. With trepidation (in light of the past days' experience) and for the reasons that I have already stated:

++ CAILIN

I suspect her more than I suspect any other at the moment.

If I don't make it through today and you guys end up lynching me, good luck to the innocents and curse you, you fiendish Wolves ...

[Garin]

Now is my most quiet time, for I am working. I'd like to reserve my vote for later to make it more meaningful, although I woulld like to get it over with.
I keep wanting to call Cailin, Anguirel by accident and couldn't understand why. Now I know why, because she seems so ANGry. I expect her to behave with the same bluster when she returns and won't vote for her until she does so.
Also, I propose that any villager that goes three days without voting should receive an instant lynch vote from us the next day. This is unacceptable, I have received condemnation for my relative silence and yet other people are managing to slide under the radar without a vote while the louder SpJ is about to be put on the slab.
This is why Wayne, Marc, Naria, Gil will top my list. Who am I forgetting? Well Kath came in momentarily.

[Naria]

Since I won't be around my computer this aft. I must vote now.

First just a couple of comments: I am silent but not to contribute any less to the discussion. I read over everyone's posts and try my best to understand what that person is saying. If I feel the need to make a big post then I will. If I don't do too much posting then it's striclty because I am confused about what is going on(this would be why I haven't done a real good job in some people's eyes). I am sorry if I am not "living" up to expectations. I usually go on gut instinct, mostly due to the fact that reading between the lines is not something that I am good at.

That being said I would like to bring up the point about using your own head and making your own decisions. I agree with this and will therefore use my own head and judgment(gut).

I find Form's attitude and actions very strange to say the least. He hasn't contributed much besides saying that he isn't a wolf and seems quite unhappy about that and insults the village. I do think that he is acting Cobblerish(mixing confusion in with his posts) and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this. Looks like the voting is going in a different direction(I have read over the reasons for this), but as I said I want to make my own decisions. And I will vote:

++Formendacil

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Naria

I find Form's attitude and actions very strange to say the least. He hasn't contributed much besides saying that he isn't a wolf and seems quite unhappy about that and insults the village. I do think that he is acting Cobblerish(mixing confusion in with his posts) and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this. Looks like the voting is going in a different direction(I have read over the reasons for this), but as I said I want to make my own decisions. And I will vote:

Your vote for me, Naria bothers me not in the slightest... but the attitude of both you and the Saucepan Man is... amusing.

You accuse me of being useless and confusing. Confusing... well, I'll admit to that. But useless?

So what!

This, my dear Villagers, is a game of "bandwaggoning, accusations, and lies". I see no reason to include sensible analysis in my posting when my "sensible" analysis, by and large, tends to be off the mark, misleading, and -frankly- suspicious.

I'm somewhat insulted that some of you seem to think me a Cobbler. Seriously, do you honestly think I'd be such a blatantly obvious Cobbler? Give me some credit people! I may not be a genius, but I have some skill in this game... If I were being a Cobbler, I'd be as quiet, normal, and devious as I could be. And you have my full and explicit permission to drag up that quote against me in any future game.

Nay, dear villagers, I am a completely ordinary innocent. Believe it if you like, deny it if you don't. The truth will out!

Now, I have no weighty or detailed analysis to offer regarding anyone. The Saucepan Man asks that I take a closer look at him, and not base my opinions off of his voting record or normal style.

However, I say that these are really the ONLY things we can go off of- at least in the Saucepan Man's case. He is too canny a person, both in general and as a player, to let things slip when he's keeping a secret.

Of course, one can hardly say that voting for known Innocents a Werewolf makes. And, as far as normal style goes, the Saucepan Man has as bad a record as any of voting in completely the wrong direction.

The thought occurs to me... just now... that MAYBE the Saucepan Man is the Cobbler. Past experience suggests that he would be a very quiet, devious Cobbler, nudging things off course rather than causing mayhem. Hmm... yes, I could see him as a Cobbler, if not a Werewolf.

Overall, I see no REAL reason to kill off Saucey today, other than the fact that he occassionally irks me. He seems, overall, to be innocent. And, if guilty, I'd peg him as Cobbler, rather than a Werewolf.

But why listen to me? After all, I'm not exactly setting out to be helpful!