Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[the guy who be short]

SpM - You raise some good points.

Originally Posted by SpM

I see what you are saying, but (except perhaps at the beginning of Day 1) Gil has not really been under determined suspicion so far and so a Wolfish Gil would have no particular reason at this stage to take overt steps to deflect the votes away from him. And I can't really condemn him for suspecting Wayne because of Wayne's self-vote because I suspect Wayne for much the same reason.

I, in turn, see what you are saying. But early today, I mentioned that we should lynch some quiet people, and Cailin agrees. Then Gil, who is numbered amongst the quiet, votes for wayne. I think it could easily be an attempt to shirk off perceived pressure onto wayne, who is also amongst the quiet lynching candidates I proposed.

SpM, what is your view on Glirdan? I recall you suspecting him earlier, but then moving on.

Finally, though I do not suspect SpM to be a wolf, a poem with subliminal messages does not make one innocent. I fail to see how expressing exasperation excludes SpM from suspicion of wolvery.


An analysis of Cailin on day 2, in an hour!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

SpM, what is your view on Glirdan? I recall you suspecting him earlier, but then moving on.

Yes, I did suspect Glirdan yesterday - for much the same reasons as you did. And he is by no means in the clear, as far as I am concerned. But my suspicions of him have lessened, largely because, while I see his reasons for voting for me as flawed, they strike me as the kind of reasons that a migusided innocent who has got his mind set on a particular person being guilty would say - see my post #195 for more detail.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Finally, though I do not suspect SpM to be a wolf, a poem with subliminal messages does not make one innocent. I fail to see how expressing exasperation excludes SpM from suspicion of wolvery.

I don't ask, and wouldn't expect, to be excluded from consideration. But I would prefer that people consider the evidence and, if they decide to vote for me, do so with good reason, rather than because they think people do not have enough intiative to think for themseves or because something "isn't sitting quite right".

Aargh! The time has come for me to vote as I won't be back for the rest of the day. With trepidation (in light of the past days' experience) and for the reasons that I have already stated:

++ CAILIN

I suspect her more than I suspect any other at the moment.

If I don't make it through today and you guys end up lynching me, good luck to the innocents and curse you, you fiendish Wolves ...

[Garin]

Now is my most quiet time, for I am working. I'd like to reserve my vote for later to make it more meaningful, although I woulld like to get it over with.
I keep wanting to call Cailin, Anguirel by accident and couldn't understand why. Now I know why, because she seems so ANGry. I expect her to behave with the same bluster when she returns and won't vote for her until she does so.
Also, I propose that any villager that goes three days without voting should receive an instant lynch vote from us the next day. This is unacceptable, I have received condemnation for my relative silence and yet other people are managing to slide under the radar without a vote while the louder SpJ is about to be put on the slab.
This is why Wayne, Marc, Naria, Gil will top my list. Who am I forgetting? Well Kath came in momentarily.

[Naria]

Since I won't be around my computer this aft. I must vote now.

First just a couple of comments: I am silent but not to contribute any less to the discussion. I read over everyone's posts and try my best to understand what that person is saying. If I feel the need to make a big post then I will. If I don't do too much posting then it's striclty because I am confused about what is going on(this would be why I haven't done a real good job in some people's eyes). I am sorry if I am not "living" up to expectations. I usually go on gut instinct, mostly due to the fact that reading between the lines is not something that I am good at.

That being said I would like to bring up the point about using your own head and making your own decisions. I agree with this and will therefore use my own head and judgment(gut).

I find Form's attitude and actions very strange to say the least. He hasn't contributed much besides saying that he isn't a wolf and seems quite unhappy about that and insults the village. I do think that he is acting Cobblerish(mixing confusion in with his posts) and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this. Looks like the voting is going in a different direction(I have read over the reasons for this), but as I said I want to make my own decisions. And I will vote:

++Formendacil

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Naria

I find Form's attitude and actions very strange to say the least. He hasn't contributed much besides saying that he isn't a wolf and seems quite unhappy about that and insults the village. I do think that he is acting Cobblerish(mixing confusion in with his posts) and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this. Looks like the voting is going in a different direction(I have read over the reasons for this), but as I said I want to make my own decisions. And I will vote:

Your vote for me, Naria bothers me not in the slightest... but the attitude of both you and the Saucepan Man is... amusing.

You accuse me of being useless and confusing. Confusing... well, I'll admit to that. But useless?

So what!

This, my dear Villagers, is a game of "bandwaggoning, accusations, and lies". I see no reason to include sensible analysis in my posting when my "sensible" analysis, by and large, tends to be off the mark, misleading, and -frankly- suspicious.

I'm somewhat insulted that some of you seem to think me a Cobbler. Seriously, do you honestly think I'd be such a blatantly obvious Cobbler? Give me some credit people! I may not be a genius, but I have some skill in this game... If I were being a Cobbler, I'd be as quiet, normal, and devious as I could be. And you have my full and explicit permission to drag up that quote against me in any future game.

Nay, dear villagers, I am a completely ordinary innocent. Believe it if you like, deny it if you don't. The truth will out!

Now, I have no weighty or detailed analysis to offer regarding anyone. The Saucepan Man asks that I take a closer look at him, and not base my opinions off of his voting record or normal style.

However, I say that these are really the ONLY things we can go off of- at least in the Saucepan Man's case. He is too canny a person, both in general and as a player, to let things slip when he's keeping a secret.

Of course, one can hardly say that voting for known Innocents a Werewolf makes. And, as far as normal style goes, the Saucepan Man has as bad a record as any of voting in completely the wrong direction.

The thought occurs to me... just now... that MAYBE the Saucepan Man is the Cobbler. Past experience suggests that he would be a very quiet, devious Cobbler, nudging things off course rather than causing mayhem. Hmm... yes, I could see him as a Cobbler, if not a Werewolf.

Overall, I see no REAL reason to kill off Saucey today, other than the fact that he occassionally irks me. He seems, overall, to be innocent. And, if guilty, I'd peg him as Cobbler, rather than a Werewolf.

But why listen to me? After all, I'm not exactly setting out to be helpful!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Wow, a lot of posts. That's great. The bad thing is that I have to vote now.

I shall leave profound analyzing for next Day if I'm not already walking in the flower gardens of afterlife by then. Those who have gathered votes are:

Wayne:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Wayne is possibly the Cobbler.

In that case Gil probably isn't a wolf or then it's a nice bluff, since I'd assume that the wolves keep an eye on cobblerish behaviour and are careful not to get their ally dead. In any case, I'd be glad to know what Wayne is, so we would have one quiet mystery less to solve.

Formendacil: I haven't been suspicious of him and I don't have a reason to start suspecting him now either. Might bear watching in the future, although I believe some things he has said make sense.

Sauce: Hasn't been suspicious thus far.

Cailín: I was really suspicious of her yesterDay and though I still suspect her, Shelob's innocence was a blow to my theory and now I'm not so sure what to think of Cailín.

mormegil: Well, TGWBS makes some good points about morm, but since I don't have time to go through his posts with a fine-tooth comb myself, I don't want to vote for him toDay.

Nine votes have been cast, six are left.

Currently Cailín has three votes, Sauce and Wayne two, morm and Formendacil one. Practically anything can still happen and toDay's voting should be interesting to analyze later since all of the lynching candidates are so different.

I trust that there won't be as many people who don't vote as yesterDay, so I'll make a tie between Cailín and Wayne. I'm interested to see which direction the voting shall go from here.

++WaynetheGoblin